scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-1f57576dd6
model Qwen3-8B · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L3-9a1b1c0960 · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__qwen_datacenter__all_llm", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "qwen_datacenter", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5", "framing": "datacenter", "framing_map": {"framing": "datacenter", "title": "Northgate data-centre siting agreement", "issue_names": ["Location", "Power supply", "Compensation", "Build schedule"], "option_labels": [["Kestrel Park", "Anvil Ridge", "Dunlow Yard", "Weir Flats"], ["solar with storage", "grid tie-in", "on-site turbines", "shared substation"], ["one-off site payment", "in-kind infrastructure", "rates abatement", "annual community fund"], ["eighteen months", "phased over eight years", "five years", "three years"]], "party_roles": ["Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)", "Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water)", "Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites)", "Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)", "Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections)"]}}
Game setup
- Issues: Location (Kestrel Park, Anvil Ridge, Dunlow Yard, Weir Flats); Power supply (solar with storage, grid tie-in, on-site turbines, shared substation); Compensation (one-off site payment, in-kind infrastructure, rates abatement, annual community fund); Build schedule (eighteen months, phased over eight years, five years, three years)
- Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility) (τ=80): Location: Kestrel Park=28, Anvil Ridge=41, Dunlow Yard=0, Weir Flats=14; Power supply: solar with storage=0, grid tie-in=0, on-site turbines=0, shared substation=0; Compensation: one-off site payment=22, in-kind infrastructure=65, rates abatement=0, annual community fund=44; Build schedule: eighteen months=29, phased over eight years=0, five years=44, three years=15
- Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water) (τ=118): Location: Kestrel Park=62, Anvil Ridge=94, Dunlow Yard=0, Weir Flats=31; Power supply: solar with storage=32, grid tie-in=97, on-site turbines=0, shared substation=65; Compensation: one-off site payment=0, in-kind infrastructure=0, rates abatement=0, annual community fund=0; Build schedule: eighteen months=19, phased over eight years=0, five years=28, three years=9
- Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites) (τ=89): Location: Kestrel Park=18, Anvil Ridge=0, Dunlow Yard=55, Weir Flats=37; Power supply: solar with storage=17, grid tie-in=0, on-site turbines=50, shared substation=33; Compensation: one-off site payment=0, in-kind infrastructure=0, rates abatement=0, annual community fund=0; Build schedule: eighteen months=39, phased over eight years=0, five years=58, three years=19
- Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce) (τ=107): Location: Kestrel Park=17, Anvil Ridge=0, Dunlow Yard=51, Weir Flats=34; Power supply: solar with storage=0, grid tie-in=0, on-site turbines=0, shared substation=0; Compensation: one-off site payment=0, in-kind infrastructure=63, rates abatement=95, annual community fund=32; Build schedule: eighteen months=36, phased over eight years=0, five years=53, three years=18
- Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections) (τ=53): Location: Kestrel Park=19, Anvil Ridge=0, Dunlow Yard=56, Weir Flats=38; Power supply: solar with storage=0, grid tie-in=0, on-site turbines=0, shared substation=0; Compensation: one-off site payment=0, in-kind infrastructure=0, rates abatement=0, annual community fund=0; Build schedule: eighteen months=27, phased over eight years=0, five years=41, three years=14
Turns
[0] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Power supply": "shared substation", "Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "five years"}
💬 I propose building at Anvil Ridge with in-kind infrastructure compensation and a five-year build schedule. This meets my requirements and I'm ready to move forward.
Anvil Ridge gives 41, in-kind infrastructure 65, five years 44. Total 150. Above threshold. Propose this package.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.45
[1] Blake — turn (round 1)
ACCEPT P1
💬 P1 meets my requirements. I accept.
P1 scores 187, above my threshold. Accepting to advance the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[2] Casey — turn (round 1)
ACCEPT P1
💬 P1 meets my requirements. I accept.
P1 scores 91, above my threshold. Accepting now ensures progress.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+31.7, bestresponse=+0
[3] Devon — turn (round 1)
ACCEPT P1
💬 P1 meets my threshold. I accept to support progress.
P1 scores 116, above my threshold. Accepting now ensures my support, but need Ember's acceptance to close the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+36.6, bestresponse=+0
[4] Ember — turn (round 1)
REJECT P1
💬 P1 doesn't meet my threshold. I reject to keep the table open for better terms.
P1 scores 41, below my threshold of 53. Rejecting preserves options for better deals. Walking ends negotiation immediately.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[5] Blake — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Power supply": "grid tie-in", "Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "five years"}
💬 I propose adjusting the power supply to grid tie-in for better grid alignment and higher value.
P1 failed due to Ember's rejection. Switching power supply to grid tie-in (97) boosts my score and aligns with Ember's grid authority role.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+16.5, bestresponse=+0.35
[6] Casey — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Power supply": "on-site turbines", "Compensation": "annual community fund", "Build schedule": "five years"}
💬 I propose a revised package to address concerns and secure a deal.
P1 is above my threshold but needs Ember's acceptance. Proposing a better deal to attract Ember.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.2
[7] Devon — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P3
💬 I accept P3 to support closing the deal with a better package for all.
P3 scores 136, above my threshold. I can accept it to close the deal. Blake's veto is already satisfied in P1, but P3 needs more acceptors. However, since P3 is better for me, I'll accept it to push progress.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+16.6, bestresponse=+0
[8] Ember — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P3
💬 I accept P3 to advance the deal. Blake's support is critical, but I'll keep pushing.
P3 scores 97, above my threshold. Accepting it moves us closer to closure. Blake's acceptance is needed, but I can't force it. I'll accept to support progress.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[9] Avery — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P3
💬 I accept P3 to move forward, but Blake's acceptance is still critical.
P3 scores 88, above my threshold. Accepting it would bring total acceptors to 4 (Casey, Devon, Ember, me). Blake's acceptance is still needed. But Blake is the veto party; without their acceptance, the deal can't close. Alternatively, I could propose a revised deal to secure Blake's support.
oracle regret: threshold=+62, acceptance=+62, bestresponse=+0
[10] Casey — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Power supply": "grid tie-in", "Compensation": "annual community fund", "Build schedule": "five years"}
💬 I propose a revised package with Dunlow Yard, grid tie-in power, annual fund, and five-year build to align with Blake's priorities while meeting my threshold.
P3 has strong support but needs Blake's acceptance. Adjusting power supply to grid tie-in (Blake's previous preference) while retaining Dunlow Yard and five-year schedule could secure Blake's support.
oracle regret: threshold=+50, acceptance=+40.3, bestresponse=+1.2
[11] Devon — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 meets my threshold. I'll push for Blake's acceptance to close the deal.
P3 has 136 points (surplus +29), accepted by 4 parties. Blake's acceptance is needed. If Blake accepts, deal closes. Alternatively, propose a new offer to secure Blake's support.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+16.6, bestresponse=+0
[12] Ember — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 meets my threshold. I support closing with P3—Blake's acceptance will finalize it.
P3 scores 97 (surplus +44) and meets my threshold. Blake's acceptance is needed to close the deal. I'll accept P3 to signal support and urge Blake to join.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[13] Avery — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P4
💬 P4 meets my threshold. Blake's acceptance will close the deal. I'll advocate for it.
P4 has 88 points (meets threshold). Blake's acceptance would finalize it. I need to push for Blake's support.
oracle regret: threshold=+62, acceptance=+62, bestresponse=+0
[14] Blake — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P4
💬 P4 meets my threshold. I accept to push closure.
P4 scores 125 (above threshold). Accepting P4 would bring total acceptances to Avery, Casey, and me. Need Devon and Ember. But Devon accepted P3, Ember accepted P3. P4 is better than P3 for me (125 vs 28). Maybe they'll switch.
oracle regret: threshold=+94, acceptance=+94, bestresponse=+0
[15] Devon — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P4
💬 I accept P4 to push closure. Ember's support is the final step.
P4 meets my threshold. Accepting it brings us to four acceptances; Ember's acceptance will close the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+16.6, bestresponse=+28
[16] Ember — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P4
💬 P4 meets my threshold. I accept to finalize the deal.
Okay, let me try to figure out what to do here. So, I'm Ember, and the current situation is that we're in the fourth round, and it's my turn. The live offers on the table are P1, P2, P3, and P4. Let me check the details for each offer and see which ones meet my threshold.
First, my acceptance threshold is 53 points. Let me look at each offer's total points for me.
P1: Location is Anvil Ridge, which I value at 0. Power supply is shared substation (0), Compensation is in-kind infrastructure (0), Build schedule is five years (41). Total is 41. That's below my threshold, so I can't accept this. But P1 is already accepted by Avery, Blake, Casey, and Devon. However, Blake is the veto party, so even if he accepts, the deal needs all parties. But since I can't accept P1, it's not a viable option.
P2: Same location and compensation as P1, but power supply is grid tie-in (0) and same build schedule. Total is still 41. Also below threshold. Blake accepted this, but others haven't. Still not good for me.
P3: Location is Dunlow Yard (56), power supply is on-site turbines (0), compensation is annual community fund (0), build schedule five years (41). Total is 56 + 41 = 97. That's way above my threshold. Accepted by Avery, Casey, Devon, and me. Wait, the mediator's message says P3 is accepted by Avery, Casey, Devon, and Ember. So that's four parties. But Blake hasn't accepted it yet. Since Blake is the veto party, the deal can't close without his acceptance. But I already accepted P3. However, the current standing offer is P4.
P4: Location Dunlow Yard (56), power supply grid tie-in (0), compensation annual fund (0), build schedule five years (41). Total is 56 +41 = 97. Accepted by Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon. So Blake has accepted P4. Wait, the mediator says P4 is accepted by Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon. So that's four parties. But I haven't accepted P4 yet. Wait, the user's last message says that in the current round, the live offers are P1, P2, P3, P4. And for P4, the accepted by are Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon. So that's four parties. But Blake is the veto party. So if P4 has Blake's acceptance, and the other parties (Avery, Casey, Devon) have accepted, then the only one left is me, Ember. So if I accept P4, then all parties except maybe someone else? Wait, the original parties are Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember. So if P4 is accepted by Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, and I (Ember) accept it, then all five parties have accepted. But Blake is the veto party, so he needs to accept. Wait, but the rules say that a deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) have accepted the same offer. So if Blake has accepted P4, and the others have accepted, then adding my acceptance would make it all five. So P4 is already accepted by four parties, and I need to accept it to close the deal.
Wait, but the mediator's message says that P4 is accepted by Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon. So that's four. I, Ember, have not accepted it yet. So if I accept P4, then all five parties have accepted, and since Blake (the veto party) is on board, the deal closes.
But why is the current standing offer P4? Because the last proposal was P4, and it's accepted by four parties. So my action now is to accept P4, which would make it a closed deal. Let me check the points again for P4. Location Dunlow Yard is 56, build schedule five years is 41. The other options (power supply and compensation) are worth 0 to me. So total is 56 +41 = 97, which is above my threshold of 53. So accepting P4 is good for me.
Alternatively, if I don't accept P4, then the deal might not close. But since the other parties have already accepted P4 except me, and Blake is already on board, I should accept P4 to finalize the deal.
So my action should be to accept P4. That would make all five parties accept it, and since Blake is a veto party, the deal would pass.
Therefore, the correct action is to
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
Outcome
deal: {"Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Power supply": "grid tie-in", "Compensation": "annual community fund", "Build schedule": "five years"} (closed by consensus)
primary 0.7411 · USW 112.0 · ESW 7.0 · NSW 1714944.0 · Gini 0.3393 · per-party surplus [8.0, 7.0, 24.0, 29.0, 44.0]