scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-7e32ce7fab

model one_oracle · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L1-19dae4b672 · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__qwen_datacenter__one_oracle", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "qwen_datacenter", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5", "framing": "datacenter", "framing_map": {"framing": "datacenter", "title": "Northgate data-centre siting agreement", "issue_names": ["Compensation", "Build schedule", "Location", "Hiring"], "option_labels": [["one-off site payment", "annual community fund", "in-kind infrastructure", "rates abatement"], ["five years", "eighteen months", "phased over eight years", "three years"], ["Anvil Ridge", "Kestrel Park", "Weir Flats", "Dunlow Yard"], ["open recruitment", "local hiring pact", "apprenticeship programme", "union hall referral"]], "party_roles": ["Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels)", "Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)", "Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)", "Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water)", "Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections)"]}}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"Compensation": "annual community fund", "Build schedule": "three years", "Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Hiring": "local hiring pact"}
💬 I propose a deal with annual community fund, three-year build schedule, Anvil Ridge location, and local hiring pact.
Maximizing my points: annual community fund (91) + three years (67) + Anvil Ridge (35) + local hiring pact (75) = 268 > 125 threshold.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.3

[1] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "phased over eight years", "Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Hiring": "open recruitment"}
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+28.2, bestresponse=+0

[2] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "eighteen months", "Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
💬 I propose a superior package with 18-month build and union hiring to exceed my threshold.
P2 scores 128, which meets my threshold. However, I can propose a better deal with 18-month build schedule and union hall hiring to maximize my points.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.7

[3] Devon — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 meets my threshold and offers better compensation and schedule. I accept.
P1 and P2 are above threshold, but P3 is worse on build schedule. I can accept P2 for higher total.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[4] Ember — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 meets my threshold. I accept to help move the deal forward.
P3 is best for me with 105 points. Blake must accept for the deal to pass. I'll accept P3 to push progress.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.45

[5] Blake — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0

[6] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "eighteen months", "Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
💬 P3 meets my threshold. I'll push for final approvals.
P3 has 206 points, exceeding my threshold. I've already accepted it. Need to secure remaining acceptances.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+58.4, bestresponse=+1.7

[7] Devon — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "phased over eight years", "Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Hiring": "open recruitment"}
💬 P2 meets my threshold. I'll push for final approvals.
P2 has 135 points, above my threshold. Blake and I have accepted it. Need others to accept to close the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+17.9, bestresponse=+0

[8] Ember — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
💬 I support P3, but Blake must accept. Let's finalize P3.
P3 is best for me, but Blake hasn't accepted. Need to push for P3 or propose a new deal that includes his preferences.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.45

[9] Avery — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P1
💬 I support P1 but need consensus. Let's finalize P1.
P1 is best for me but needs broader support. P2 has Blake and Devon, but needs Casey and Ember. P3 is below my threshold. I should push for P1 or improve P2.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.3

[10] Casey — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "eighteen months", "Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
💬 P3 meets my threshold. Let's secure Blake's acceptance to finalize the deal.
P3 has 206 points, above my threshold. Blake hasn't accepted it yet. Need to push for Blake's acceptance.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+58.4, bestresponse=+1.7

[11] Devon — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P2
Okay, let me try to figure out what I should do here. So, I'm Devon, and I need to make a decision based on the current state of the negotiations. Let me start by recalling my own score sheet and acceptance threshold. My threshold is 69 points. Looking at the live offers provided: - P1: Compensation is annual community fund (14 points), Build schedule three years (82), Location Anvil Ridge (38), Hiring local pact (0). Total is 14+82+38+0 = 134. That's well above my threshold. But it's already accepted by Avery. However, Blake hasn't accepted it yet. - P2: Compensation in-kind (42), Build schedule phased over eight years (55), Location Anvil Ridge (38), Hiring open recruitment (0). Total is 42+55+38+0 = 135. Accepted by Blake and me. - P3: Compensation in-kind (42), Build schedule eighteen months (0), Location Anvil Ridge (38), Hiring union referral (0). Total 42+0+38+0 = 80. Accepted by Casey and Ember. - P4: Same as P3, but maybe a different proposer? Wait, the details for P4 and P6 seem similar. - P5: Compensation in-kind (42), Build schedule phased over eight years (55), Hiring open recruitment (0). Wait, location is still Anvil Ridge? So same as P2 but maybe different proposer? - P6: Same as P3, accepted by Casey. The mediator says it's my turn, and the current standing offer is P6. But the offers on the table include P1, P2, P3, P4, P5, P6. My goal is to get a deal that meets my threshold. Let me check which offers are already accepted by enough parties. For a deal to close, all 5 parties must accept the same offer. But Blake is a veto party, so even if all others accept, Blake must accept. Looking at the current acceptances: - P1 is accepted by Avery. Others? Not sure. - P2 is accepted by Blake and me. - P3 is accepted by Casey and Ember. - P5 is accepted by me? Wait, the offer_accepts for P5 is [3], which is Devon's seat (since seats are Avery=0, Blake=1, Casey=2, Devon=3, Ember=4). So P5 is accepted by Devon. But for a deal to close, all parties must accept. So P2 has Blake and me, but others need to accept. But the problem is that Blake is the veto party, so even if others accept, without Blake's acceptance, the deal can't pass. Looking at the current state: - P2 has Blake and me. If others accept, but Blake hasn't accepted P2 yet? Wait, no, the offer_accepts for P2 are [3,1], which is Blake (seat 1) and Devon (seat 3). So Blake has already accepted P2. Wait, in the negotiation_state, offer_accepts for P2 is [3,1], meaning Devon and Blake have accepted. So P2 has two acceptances. But we need all five parties to accept. But the current standing offer is P6, which is the same as P3. But the problem is that Blake hasn't accepted P3. Wait, in the offer_accepts for P3, it's [2,4], which is Casey (seat 2) and Ember (seat 4). So Blake hasn't accepted P3. So, if I look at the current offers, P2 has Blake and me. If others accept, then P2 could be a viable deal. But the problem is that Avery is supporting P1 but needs consensus. But the mediator says it's my turn, and the current standing offer is P6. Wait, the standing offer is P6, which is the same as P3. But P3 has only Casey and Ember accepting. But Blake hasn't accepted P3. So, perhaps the best path is to push for P2, which has Blake and me already. But I need to check if other parties have accepted P2. Looking at the offer_accepts for P2: [3,1], which is Blake (seat 1) and Devon (seat 3). So Blake has accepted P2. So, if the rest of the parties (Avery, Casey, Ember) accept P2, then the deal would close. But Avery is supporting P1, which is a different offer. Alternatively, maybe there's a
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[12] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 is the best deal for me. I accept it to help finalize the agreement.
P3 is optimal for me. Blake's acceptance is needed. I'll accept P3 to signal support and push for Blake's approval.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.45

[13] Avery — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"Compensation": "annual community fund", "Build schedule": "three years", "Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Hiring": "local hiring pact"}
💬 I support P1 but need Blake's acceptance to finalize the deal.
P1 meets my threshold but needs Blake's acceptance. P2 is accepted by Blake and Devon but lacks Casey and Ember. P3 is below my threshold. I'll push for P1 with Blake.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+81.8, bestresponse=+3.3

[14] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0

[15] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 I support P2. Let's finalize it with Blake's acceptance.
P2 has Blake and Devon accepting. Need Avery, Casey, Ember to accept P2. P3 has Casey and Ember but needs Blake. P1 has Avery but needs others. P5 has Devon but needs others. Best to push P2 with Blake's acceptance and secure others.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[16] Ember — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P3
💬 I'll accept P3 to help finalize the deal with Blake's support.
P3 has 105 points, my threshold is 43. Blake's acceptance is needed. P2 has 52 points but needs Avery and Casey. P3 needs Blake, Avery, and Devon. Let's secure Blake's acceptance for P3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.45

[17] Avery — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 I'll accept P2 to finalize the deal with Blake's support.
P2 has Blake's acceptance (veto) and Devon. Need Avery, Casey, Ember to accept. P3 has Casey and Ember; need Blake, Avery, Devon. P1 is only Avery. P7 is only Avery. P2 is better for me (191 vs 268 for P1). But P1 is already accepted by me. However, Blake has accepted P2. If I switch to P2, it could meet the quorum. But I need to check if others will accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+77, acceptance=+77, bestresponse=+0

[18] Blake — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0

[19] Casey — turn (round 4)

PROPOSE {"Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "eighteen months", "Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
💬 I support P3. Let's secure the final approvals.
P3 has 206 points (surplus +112) and needs Avery, Blake, Devon to accept. Blake already accepted P2, but can support P3. P2 has 128 points (surplus +34) and needs Casey and Ember to accept. Ember has accepted P3, but could support P2. However, P3 is better for me. I'll push for P3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+58.4, bestresponse=+1.7

[20] Ember — final_proposal (round 5)

ACCEPT P2
Okay, let's see. The user is Ember, and the negotiation is at its final stage. The Mediator has given Ember a final move: either propose one last deal or walk. Let me check the current state. Looking at the live offers, P3, P4, P6, P8 all have a score of 105 for Ember, which is well above their threshold of 43. However, the acceptance status varies. P3 is accepted by Casey and Ember. P8 is accepted by Casey. But Blake is a veto party, and no deal has passed without their acceptance. Wait, the current offers on the table: P2 has Blake's acceptance, but P2's score is 52. However, P3 and others have higher scores. But Blake hasn't accepted any of the higher-scoring offers. So, if Ember can get Blake to accept a deal, that would be key. But in the final move, Ember can either propose a new deal or walk. Since the previous attempts to get Blake to accept P2 or P3 didn't work, maybe proposing a new deal that includes Blake's preferences. Wait, Blake's options: in previous proposals, Blake had accepted P2, which had phased over eight years build schedule and open recruitment. But Blake is a veto party, so the deal needs Blake's acceptance. Looking at the current offers, P2 has Blake's acceptance. But P2's score for Ember is 52, which is good but not as high as P3. However, since Blake is the veto party, if P2 is accepted by Blake and others, maybe that's the path. But the problem is that the other parties might not all accept P2. Alternatively, Ember could propose a new deal that's similar to P3 but maybe adjusts something to get Blake's support. But given the time constraints, maybe the best option is to accept P2 since it's already accepted by Blake, Avery, Devon, and Ember. Wait, in the current state, P2 is accepted by Avery, Blake, Devon. If Casey and Ember accept P2, then all parties except maybe Casey? Wait, no, Casey hasn't accepted P2. Wait, the Mediator's message says that the rounds are over, and the live offers include P2 accepted by Avery, Blake, Devon. So if Ember and Casey accept P2, then all parties would have accepted. But Casey hasn't accepted P2 yet. But the user is Ember. The current offers show that P2 has 3 acceptances (Avery, Blake, Devon). If Ember accepts P2, that's 4, and if Casey also accepts, then all 5 parties would have accepted. But since Casey is still active, maybe Ember can accept P2 to push for that. However, the Mediator's message says that the rounds are over, so the final move is either propose a new deal or walk. Alternatively, Ember could propose a new deal that's P3, which has a high score. But if Blake hasn't accepted it, then the deal can't pass. But maybe in the final move, if Ember proposes P3 again, and if Blake is willing to accept, then it could work. But Blake might not accept unless there's a reason. Wait, looking at the previous interactions, Blake accepted P2, which is the phased over eight years schedule and open recruitment. Maybe Blake prefers that. So if Ember can get Blake to accept P2, then the deal can pass. But since the rounds are over, and the Mediator is asking for a final move, maybe the best option is to accept P2, since it's already accepted by Blake, Avery, Devon, and Ember. But Casey hasn't accepted it. However, if Casey is still in the game, then the deal can't pass unless Casey accepts. But the user is Ember. The current offers show that P2 has 3 acceptances. If Ember accepts P2, then it's 4 acceptances. But Casey hasn't accepted any offer yet. Unless Casey can be convinced. However, in the final move, Ember can't propose a new deal that includes Casey's acceptance. Alternatively, maybe the best move is to accept P2, and if Casey is willing to accept, but since the rounds are over, maybe the Mediator will close the deal once enough acceptances are there. But given the rules, a deal closes when all parties have accepted the same offer. So if P2 has Avery, Blake, Devon, and Ember accepting, but Casey hasn't, then it's not closed. So Ember's best move is to accept P2, which would bring it to 4 acceptances. But Casey might still need to accept. However, since the rounds are over, and it's the final move, maybe the Mediator will consider the deal closed if the majority has accepted. But no, the rules state that all parties
oracle regret: threshold=+53, acceptance=+53, bestresponse=+0

[21] Avery — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 meets my threshold and has majority support. I accept to finalize the deal.
Okay, let's see. I'm Avery, and I need to decide whether to accept, reject, or walk on the current offers. The final up/down vote is on P2. Let me check the details. First, looking at my own scores for P2. Compensation is in-kind infrastructure, which is worth 61 points. Build schedule is phased over eight years, worth 45. Location is Anvil Ridge, 35. Hiring is open recruitment, 50. Total is 61 + 45 + 35 + 50 = 191. My threshold is 125, so 191 is way above that. But wait, the mediator's message says that P2 has been accepted by Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember. So that's four parties. But Blake is the veto party, and the rules say that no deal passes without the veto party accepting. Wait, Blake has accepted P2, right? Because in the previous steps, Blake accepted P2. So the accepted by list for P2 includes Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember. That's four parties. But there are five parties total. Wait, Casey hasn't accepted P2. Let me check the live offers again. Looking at the live offers on the table, P2 is accepted by Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember. So that's four parties. But Casey hasn't accepted P2. So the deal isn't closed yet because all five parties need to accept the same offer. But Blake is the veto party, so even if all others accept, without Blake's acceptance, the deal can't pass. Wait, no—the rules say that Blake holds a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts. Since Blake is the only veto party, and he has accepted P2, then the deal can proceed if all others accept. But in this case, Casey hasn't accepted P2. So the deal isn't closed yet. However, the mediator says this is the final up/down vote on P2. So maybe the remaining parties need to accept or reject. But the current state shows that P2 has four acceptances: Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember. Only Casey remains. So if Casey accepts, then all five parties (including Blake) have accepted, and the deal closes. If Casey rejects, then P2 fails, and maybe another offer is considered. But the mediator says this is the final vote, so maybe there's no more time for other offers. But wait, the user's last message says "This is the FINAL up/down vote on P2." So the only option now is to accept or reject P2. Since I'm Avery, and I already accepted P2, but maybe I need to confirm. Wait, in the live offers, P2 is accepted by Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember. So I (Avery) have already accepted P2. The question is whether Casey will accept or reject. But the user's turn is Avery, and the negotiation is at the final round. Wait, the user is Avery, and the current state is that the standing offer is P2, and it's the final vote. So the remaining party is Casey. But in the negotiation_state, the "must_vote" is true, meaning Avery must vote. Wait, but Avery already accepted P2. Maybe there's confusion here. Let me check the negotiation_state details again. The negotiation_state shows that P2 has acceptances from [3,4,1,0], which are the seats. The seats are Avery (0), Blake (1), Casey (2), Devon (3), Ember (4). So P2 is accepted by Blake (1), Devon (3), Avery (0), and Ember (4). That's four parties. Casey (2) hasn't accepted. So the deal isn't closed yet. But since this is the final vote, perhaps Avery needs to take action. However, Avery already accepted P2. Maybe the system is prompting Avery to confirm or take another action. But the user's instruction says "Speak to the table and/or take one formal action, as one fenced JSON object." Since the deal is on P2, and the only remaining party is Casey, but the user is Avery, who has already accepted. However, maybe the system is expecting Avery to accept or reject. But since Avery has already accepted, perhaps the action is to accept again? Or maybe the system is allowing for a final confirmation. Alternatively, maybe the user is supposed to accept P2, which would make all five parties accept (assuming Casey also accepts). But since Casey's action isn't shown here, maybe the user is supposed to accept P2 to finalize it. But the problem is that the user is Avery, and if the system is expecting a final vote, perhaps Avery needs to accept P2 again. However, the user's previous action was to accept P2, but maybe that's not enough
oracle regret: threshold=+77, acceptance=+77, bestresponse=+0

[22] Blake — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0

[23] Casey — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 meets my threshold and secures the necessary approvals. I accept.
Okay, let me try to figure out what to do here. So, the situation is that we're in the final round of negotiations, and the mediator is asking me, Casey, to take an action. The current standing offer is P2, and the final up/down vote is happening on it. First, I need to check the details of P2. From the data provided, P2 has the following options: Compensation is in-kind infrastructure (which I value at 0), Build schedule is phased over eight years (worth 28 points to me), Location is Anvil Ridge (57 points), and Hiring is open recruitment (43 points). Adding those up, my total is 0 + 28 + 57 + 43 = 128. My acceptance threshold is 94, so 128 is above that, which means it's acceptable for me. Now, looking at the acceptance status of P2: it's been accepted by Avery, Blake, Devon, and Ember. That's four parties. The requirement for a deal is that at least 5 of the original 5 parties accept the same offer. Since Blake is the veto party, his acceptance is crucial. Wait, Blake has already accepted P2, right? The log shows Blake accepted P2. So currently, the acceptances are Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember. That's four. The fifth needed is me, Casey. Wait, but in the current state, the offer P2 has been accepted by [3,4,1,0], which I think corresponds to the parties. Let me check the negotiation_state. The offer_accepts for P2 are [3,4,1,0]. The parties are Avery (0), Blake (1), Casey (2), Devon (3), Ember (4). So the acceptances are 3 (Devon), 4 (Ember), 1 (Blake), and 0 (Avery). That's four acceptances. So if I accept P2, that would make it five acceptances, including Blake. Since Blake is the veto party, his acceptance is required. But since he's already accepted, then with my acceptance, the deal would close. But wait, the problem says that a deal closes only when every other still-active party has accepted the same live offer. Since all parties except maybe me have accepted, if I accept, then it's done. But looking at the current state, the standing offer is P2. The "must_vote" is true, so I need to take an action. My options are to accept, reject, or walk. Since I'm already on P3 and P4 and P6 and P8, which are better for me (like P3 and P8 have higher points), but the standing offer is P2. However, the final vote is on P2. But why would they be voting on P2 if there are better offers? Maybe because the other offers haven't reached the required acceptances. Let me check the other offers. For example, P3 has 206 points, which is way above my threshold. But the acceptances for P3 are [2,4], which are Casey and Ember. So only two parties. Similarly, P4 is accepted by Casey only. P6 and P8 are also accepted by Casey. So those offers haven't reached the five-party threshold. Therefore, the only offer that's close to closing is P2, which has four acceptances. So if I accept P2, then it would meet the five-party requirement. But wait, the problem says that the deal closes when at least 5 of the original 5 parties accept the same offer. Since there are five parties, all must accept. So if four have accepted, and I accept, then it's five. Therefore, my action should be to accept P2. That would finalize the deal. Alternatively, if I reject P2, then the deal falls through. But since I have a better offer (like P3) that's not yet accepted by enough parties, but maybe I can push for that. However, the current standing offer is P2, and the final vote is on it. But according to the rules, the deal closes only when the same offer is accepted by all. Since the mediator is indicating that this is the final up/down vote on P2, I need to decide whether to accept or reject. Given that my score for P2 is 128, which is above my threshold of 94, accepting it is better than no deal. So I should accept P2 to close the deal. Therefore, the correct action is to accept P2.
oracle regret: threshold=+78, acceptance=+78, bestresponse=+0

Outcome

deal: {"Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "phased over eight years", "Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Hiring": "open recruitment"} (closed by consensus)

primary 0.9906 · USW 215.0 · ESW 9.0 · NSW 53317440.0 · Gini 0.2716 · per-party surplus [66.0, 40.0, 34.0, 66.0, 9.0]