scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-8176cc4d90
model one_oracle · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L3-9a1b1c0960 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__qwen_datacenter__one_oracle", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "qwen_datacenter", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5", "framing": "datacenter", "framing_map": {"framing": "datacenter", "title": "Northgate data-centre siting agreement", "issue_names": ["Location", "Power supply", "Compensation", "Build schedule"], "option_labels": [["Kestrel Park", "Anvil Ridge", "Dunlow Yard", "Weir Flats"], ["solar with storage", "grid tie-in", "on-site turbines", "shared substation"], ["one-off site payment", "in-kind infrastructure", "rates abatement", "annual community fund"], ["eighteen months", "phased over eight years", "five years", "three years"]], "party_roles": ["Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)", "Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water)", "Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites)", "Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)", "Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections)"]}}
Game setup
- Issues: Location (Kestrel Park, Anvil Ridge, Dunlow Yard, Weir Flats); Power supply (solar with storage, grid tie-in, on-site turbines, shared substation); Compensation (one-off site payment, in-kind infrastructure, rates abatement, annual community fund); Build schedule (eighteen months, phased over eight years, five years, three years)
- Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility) (τ=80): Location: Kestrel Park=28, Anvil Ridge=41, Dunlow Yard=0, Weir Flats=14; Power supply: solar with storage=0, grid tie-in=0, on-site turbines=0, shared substation=0; Compensation: one-off site payment=22, in-kind infrastructure=65, rates abatement=0, annual community fund=44; Build schedule: eighteen months=29, phased over eight years=0, five years=44, three years=15
- Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water) (τ=118): Location: Kestrel Park=62, Anvil Ridge=94, Dunlow Yard=0, Weir Flats=31; Power supply: solar with storage=32, grid tie-in=97, on-site turbines=0, shared substation=65; Compensation: one-off site payment=0, in-kind infrastructure=0, rates abatement=0, annual community fund=0; Build schedule: eighteen months=19, phased over eight years=0, five years=28, three years=9
- Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites) (τ=89): Location: Kestrel Park=18, Anvil Ridge=0, Dunlow Yard=55, Weir Flats=37; Power supply: solar with storage=17, grid tie-in=0, on-site turbines=50, shared substation=33; Compensation: one-off site payment=0, in-kind infrastructure=0, rates abatement=0, annual community fund=0; Build schedule: eighteen months=39, phased over eight years=0, five years=58, three years=19
- Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce) (τ=107): Location: Kestrel Park=17, Anvil Ridge=0, Dunlow Yard=51, Weir Flats=34; Power supply: solar with storage=0, grid tie-in=0, on-site turbines=0, shared substation=0; Compensation: one-off site payment=0, in-kind infrastructure=63, rates abatement=95, annual community fund=32; Build schedule: eighteen months=36, phased over eight years=0, five years=53, three years=18
- Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections) (τ=53): Location: Kestrel Park=19, Anvil Ridge=0, Dunlow Yard=56, Weir Flats=38; Power supply: solar with storage=0, grid tie-in=0, on-site turbines=0, shared substation=0; Compensation: one-off site payment=0, in-kind infrastructure=0, rates abatement=0, annual community fund=0; Build schedule: eighteen months=27, phased over eight years=0, five years=41, three years=14
Turns
[0] Blake — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"Location": "Anvil Ridge", "Power supply": "grid tie-in", "Compensation": "annual community fund", "Build schedule": "five years"}
💬 I propose a deal at Anvil Ridge with grid tie-in power, five-year build, and annual community fund compensation.
Maximizing my points: Anvil Ridge (94) + grid tie-in (97) + five-year schedule (28) = 219. Compensation is neutral (0).
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35
[1] Casey — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Power supply": "on-site turbines", "Compensation": "annual community fund", "Build schedule": "five years"}
💬 I need a better package to meet my threshold. Let me propose an alternative.
P1 scores 58 (below threshold). Need to propose a better deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.2
[2] Devon — turn (round 1)
ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 meets my threshold. I accept to move the process forward.
P2 meets my threshold (136 points). Accepting it advances the deal; Blake's veto requires their acceptance, but I can't control that.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+16.6, bestresponse=+0
[3] Ember — turn (round 1)
ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 meets my threshold. I accept to support progress.
P2 scores 97, above my threshold. Accepting moves us closer to closure.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[4] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Power supply": "grid tie-in", "Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "five years"}
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+15.2, bestresponse=+0
[5] Casey — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 is viable and meets my threshold. I'll accept it to push the deal.
P2 meets my threshold and is supported by three parties. Blake's acceptance is needed. If I accept P2, it's the best path forward.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.2
[6] Devon — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 meets my threshold. I'll accept it to support progress, hoping Blake will join.
P2 is best for me at 136, but Blake's veto is still pending. Since Blake is the only veto party, I need his acceptance. However, I can't influence his decision. Since P3 has higher points (167) and Avery has already accepted it, maybe pushing for P3 could be better. But I need to check if Blake might accept P3. Alternatively, I can accept P2 to move forward, but without Blake's acceptance, it's not a deal. Since I can't force Blake, I should accept P2 to show support and let others decide.
oracle regret: threshold=+31, acceptance=+31, bestresponse=+3
[7] Ember — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 is solid. Let's secure Blake's acceptance to finalize the deal.
P2 is viable and meets my threshold. Blake's acceptance is the only missing piece. I'll support P2 until Blake joins.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.2
[8] Avery — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0
[9] Blake — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 meets my threshold. I accept to finalize the deal.
P3 scores 125, above my threshold. Accepting P3 would finalize the deal with necessary support.
oracle regret: threshold=+94, acceptance=+94, bestresponse=+0
[10] Devon — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P3
💬 I accept P3 to align with Avery and Blake. Let's secure the remaining votes.
P3 scores 167 (above threshold). Accepting it ensures alignment with Avery and Blake. Casey and Ember need to accept too, but I can't force them. Better to solidify support for P3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[11] Ember — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 meets my threshold. I accept to push the deal forward.
P3 scores 97 (above threshold), accepted by Avery, Blake, Devon. Accepting P3 brings us to 4/5. Need Casey's acceptance. Let’s secure the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[12] Avery — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"Location": "Kestrel Park", "Power supply": "solar with storage", "Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "five years"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+15.2, bestresponse=+1.45
[13] Blake — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 meets my threshold and has majority support. I'll accept to finalize the deal.
Okay, let's see. I'm Blake, and I need to decide whether to accept, reject, or walk on the current offers. The key here is that I have a veto, so the deal can't pass without me. Let me check the live offers.
Looking at the offers on the table:
P1: Anvil Ridge, grid tie-in, annual community fund, five years. My scores for these are 94 (location), 97 (power supply), 0 (compensation), and 28 (build schedule). Total is 94 + 97 + 0 + 28 = 219. My threshold is 118, so this is way above. But P1 is already accepted by Blake. Wait, but the current state shows P1 is accepted by Blake, but the other parties? The acceptances for P1 are [1], which is Blake. But the other parties might have accepted or rejected. However, since I'm the veto party, the deal needs all parties to accept the same offer.
P2: Dunlow Yard, on-site turbines, annual community fund, five years. My scores here are 0 (location), 0 (power supply), 0 (compensation), 28 (build schedule). Total 28, which is below my threshold. So I can't accept this. But others have accepted it. However, since I'm the veto, even if others accept, the deal can't pass without me. So P2 is invalid because I can't accept it.
P3: Dunlow Yard, grid tie-in, in-kind infrastructure, five years. My scores: 0 (location), 97 (power supply), 0 (compensation), 28 (build schedule). Total 125, which is above my threshold. And P3 is accepted by Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember. But Casey hasn't accepted it yet. Wait, the offer_accepts for P3 are [3,4,1,0], which might correspond to the parties. Wait, the parties are Avery (0), Blake (1), Casey (2), Devon (3), Ember (4). So P3 is accepted by Avery (0), Blake (1), Devon (3), Ember (4). Casey (2) hasn't accepted it. So the deal isn't closed yet because Casey hasn't accepted. But since I'm Blake, and I've already accepted P3, but Casey hasn't. So if Casey accepts, then P3 would be a deal. But if not, then P3 is still pending.
P4: Kestrel Park, solar with storage, in-kind infrastructure, five years. My scores: 62 (location), 32 (power supply), 0 (compensation), 28 (build schedule). Total 62 +32 +0 +28 = 122, which is above my threshold. P4 is accepted by Avery. But others haven't accepted it. So if I accept P4, and others accept, then it could close. But currently, only Avery has accepted P4.
Now, the current state is that the standing offer is P4. The mediator's message says that it's my turn. The previous actions show that Avery proposed P4. The question is, what should I do now?
Since I need to get all parties to accept the same offer. Let's see:
If I accept P3, which already has four acceptances (Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember), and Casey hasn't. If I can get Casey to accept P3, then it would close. Alternatively, if I accept P4, and others accept, but Casey might prefer P3 or another.
But the problem is that Casey's preferences are private. However, in the previous rounds, Casey accepted P2 and then P3. Wait, in the previous messages, Casey first proposed P2, then accepted P2. Then when P3 was proposed, Casey accepted it. But in the current state, the offer_accepts for P3 are [3,4,1,0], which might be Devon, Ember, Blake, Avery. So Casey (party 2) hasn't accepted P3 yet. So if I accept P3, and Casey also accepts, then the deal closes. But if Casey doesn't accept, then P3 can't close.
Alternatively, if I accept P4, which has Avery's acceptance, and maybe others can accept. But P4's total is 122 for me, which is above my threshold. So if I accept P4, then the deal can proceed if others accept. However, the problem is that the other parties might have their own preferences. For example, Avery might prefer P4, but Casey might prefer P3.
But since I'm Blake, I need to decide which offer to accept. Since P3 is already accepted by
oracle regret: threshold=+94, acceptance=+94, bestresponse=+0
[14] Casey — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 meets my threshold. I accept to close the deal.
P3 scores 113 (above threshold) and needs my acceptance to close. P4 scores 93 but requires more support. Accept P3 to finalize.
oracle regret: threshold=+50, acceptance=+50, bestresponse=+0
Outcome
deal: {"Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Power supply": "grid tie-in", "Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Build schedule": "five years"} (closed by consensus)
primary 1.0 · USW 164.0 · ESW 7.0 · NSW 12862080.0 · Gini 0.3073 · per-party surplus [29.0, 7.0, 24.0, 60.0, 44.0]