scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-2e54a2a7b6

model one_rational · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L3-d9a0ef3c04 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__qwen_datacenter__one_rational", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "qwen_datacenter", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5", "framing": "datacenter", "framing_map": {"framing": "datacenter", "title": "Northgate data-centre siting agreement", "issue_names": ["Power supply", "Location", "Compensation", "Site access"], "option_labels": [["grid tie-in", "on-site turbines", "solar with storage", "shared substation"], ["Anvil Ridge", "Dunlow Yard", "Weir Flats", "Kestrel Park"], ["one-off site payment", "rates abatement", "annual community fund", "in-kind infrastructure"], ["new spur road", "widened lane", "rail siding", "existing haul route"]], "party_roles": ["Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections)", "Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive)", "Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels)", "Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)", "Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water)"]}}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"Power supply": "shared substation", "Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Site access": "new spur road"}
💬 I propose a deal with shared substation for power, Dunlow Yard location, in-kind infrastructure compensation, and new spur road access.
Maximizing my points: Power=shared substation (71), Location=Dunlow Yard (21). Compensation and Site access don't affect my threshold, so choose neutral options.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.15

[1] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"Power supply": "on-site turbines", "Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Compensation": "in-kind infrastructure", "Site access": "existing haul route"}
💬 I propose a better deal with on-site turbines and Dunlow Yard to meet my threshold.
P1 scores 29, below my threshold. Need to push for on-site turbines (63) and Dunlow Yard (29) to reach 92. Other options don't add value for me.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.2

[2] Devon — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P1
💬 P1 meets my threshold. I accept to help close the deal.
P1 scores 188 (above threshold). Accepting P1 supports closing the deal. Rejecting P2 (98) is below threshold. I'll accept P1 to move forward.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[3] Ember — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P1
💬 P1 clears my bar. I accept to help close the deal.
P1 meets my threshold (138 > 116). Accepting P1 helps close the deal with Blake and Devon already on board. Need Casey and Avery to accept next.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+32.5, bestresponse=+0

[4] Avery — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[5] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"Power supply": "on-site turbines", "Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Compensation": "annual community fund", "Site access": "existing haul route"}
💬 I'll adjust P2 to include a better compensation option to secure Blake's acceptance.
P2 scores 92 (above threshold) but needs Blake's acceptance. Blake already accepted P1, but not P2. I can propose a modified P2 to secure Blake's support.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+17.5, bestresponse=+0.2

[6] Devon — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 is viable for me, but Blake's acceptance is critical. I'll accept P3 to help close it.
P3 scores 112 (above threshold), but needs Blake's acceptance. P1 has 188 but requires Blake to accept. Since Blake is veto, I need to push for P1 or adjust.
oracle regret: threshold=+76, acceptance=+76, bestresponse=+0

[7] Ember — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P1
💬 P1 meets my threshold. I accept to help close the deal.
P1 scores 138 (threshold 116), but needs Avery and Casey. P3 scores 120, needs Blake and Avery. Accepting P1 now secures my threshold and helps close the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+32.5, bestresponse=+0

[8] Avery — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[9] Blake — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P1
💬 P1 meets my threshold. I accept to help close the deal.
P1 scores 92 (above threshold), but requires Avery and Casey to accept. P3 is below threshold. Proposing P1 with my acceptance pushes toward closure.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[10] Devon — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"Power supply": "shared substation", "Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Compensation": "annual community fund", "Site access": "new spur road"}
💬 I propose a refined deal with shared substation, Dunlow Yard, annual community fund, and new spur road to secure Blake's approval.
P3 is viable but needs Blake's acceptance. Adjusting compensation to annual community fund (42) and keeping shared substation (62) could meet Blake's threshold. Combining with new spur road (42) and Dunlow Yard (56) totals 62+56+42+42 = 202, well above my threshold. Blake's acceptance is critical.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+45.3, bestresponse=+2.6

[11] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P4
💬 P4 meets my threshold. I accept to advance closure.
P4 scores 200 (surplus +84) and is accepted by Devon. Accepting P4 would bring total acceptors to Devon and me. Blake's acceptance is needed for closure. Since Blake has already accepted P1, perhaps aligning with P4's terms could secure his support.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[12] Avery — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"Power supply": "solar with storage", "Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Compensation": "annual community fund", "Site access": "rail siding"}
oracle regret: threshold=+51, acceptance=+47.7, bestresponse=+2.9

[13] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P1
💬 P1 meets my threshold. I accept to help close the deal.
P1 scores 92 for me, meeting my threshold. It needs Avery and Casey to accept. I should accept P1 to help close the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[14] Casey — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P5
💬 I accept P5 to meet my threshold and advance closure.
P5 scores 71, above my threshold. Accepting it would bring me to 71, but Blake's acceptance is still needed. However, with my acceptance, P5 has two supporters (Avery and me). Blake's acceptance is critical. Since Blake has accepted P1, maybe he's open to other offers. But I need to secure his support. Alternatively, I can accept P2 or P3 which have higher scores and see if Blake can be convinced.
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+21, bestresponse=+0

[15] Ember — turn (round 4)

PROPOSE {"Power supply": "shared substation", "Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Compensation": "annual community fund", "Site access": "new spur road"}
💬 I propose P4: shared substation, Dunlow Yard, annual community fund, new spur road. It meets my threshold and can close with Blake's acceptance.
P4 scores 200 (above threshold), accepted by Devon and Ember. Need Blake's acceptance to close. Proposing P4 to secure closure.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+29.5, bestresponse=+2.9

[16] Avery — turn (round 4)

PROPOSE {"Power supply": "solar with storage", "Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Compensation": "annual community fund", "Site access": "rail siding"}
oracle regret: threshold=+51, acceptance=+47.7, bestresponse=+2.9

[17] Blake — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P1
Okay, let's see. I'm Blake, and I need to decide what to do now. The current situation is that there are several live offers on the table. My acceptance threshold is 46 points. Let me check the offers again. Looking at the live offers: - P1: Power supply is shared substation (71 points for me), Location Dunlow Yard (21), Compensation in-kind infrastructure (0), Site access new spur road (0). Total is 71+21+0+0 = 92. That's way above my threshold. It's already accepted by Blake, Devon, Ember. But Avery and Casey have accepted P3 and P5, but those have lower scores for me. Wait, the problem is that I need all parties to accept the same offer. Wait, the Mediator's message says that P1 has 92 points for me, and it's accepted by Blake, Devon, Ember. But Avery and Casey might not have accepted it. Wait, no, looking at the "offer_accepts" for P1: [4, 3, 1], which I think corresponds to the parties. Wait, the parties are Avery (0?), Blake (1?), Casey (2?), Devon (3?), Ember (4?)? Maybe the numbers correspond to the order of the parties. Let me check the initial setup: the parties are Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember. So the indexes 0-4. So P1's accepts are [4,3,1], meaning parties 4 (Ember?), 3 (Devon?), 1 (Blake?)? Wait, maybe the numbers are the party indices. So P1 is accepted by Blake (1), Devon (3), Ember (4). So Avery and Casey haven't accepted it yet. But the problem is that Blake is the veto party, so even if others accept, unless Blake accepts, it can't pass. Wait, no: the rules say that a deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) have formally accepted the same standing offer. Since there are 5 parties, all must accept. But Blake is the veto party, so no deal can pass unless every veto party (Blake) accepts. Wait, the rule says "no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts." So Blake must accept. But in the current state, P1 has been accepted by Blake, Devon, Ember. But Avery and Casey have not accepted it. So even if Blake accepts, unless the others accept, it can't close. But Blake is the only veto party, so the deal can't pass unless Blake accepts. Wait, no: the rule says that a deal closes when all 5 parties have accepted the same offer. But Blake is the veto party, so even if the others accept, the deal can't pass unless Blake accepts. Wait, the rule says "no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts." So Blake's acceptance is required. So if Blake accepts, and others accept, then the deal can pass. But currently, P1 is accepted by Blake, Devon, Ember. Avery and Casey have not accepted it. So if Blake accepts, but others don't, it's not enough. So Blake's acceptance is required, but others need to accept as well. Looking at the other offers. Let's check P4: shared substation (71), Dunlow Yard (21), annual community fund (0), new spur road (0). Total is 92. Accepted by Devon and Ember. So if Blake accepts, and Avery and Casey accept, then P4 could be closed. But Avery and Casey might not accept. But looking at the offers, P4 is the same as P1 except for the compensation. Wait, no: P1's compensation is in-kind infrastructure (0), P4's is annual community fund (0). So same for me. So P4 has same points as P1 for me. But P4 is accepted by Devon and Ember. If I accept P4, then if Avery and Casey accept, the deal can close. But Avery and Casey have their own thresholds. Let me think. Alternatively, looking at P6: same as P4, but proposed by Ember. It's accepted by Ember. So if I accept P6, and others accept, maybe. But I need to see what's the best way to get all parties to accept. But Blake's own threshold is 46. Let me check each offer's total for me. P1: 71 +21 +0 +0 = 92. P4: same as P1, except compensation is annual community fund (0), same as P1's compensation. Wait, no: the compensation for P1 is in-kind infrastructure (0), for P4 it's annual community fund (0). So same for me
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[18] Casey — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 I accept P2 to help close the deal.
P2 and P3 meet my threshold. Blake's acceptance is critical. I'll accept P2 to help close the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[19] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P1
💬 P1 meets my threshold and can close with Avery and Casey's acceptance.
P1 has Blake, Devon, Ember accepting. Need Avery and Casey. P4 is better for me but needs more acceptances. Accept P1 to help close.
oracle regret: threshold=+14, acceptance=+14, bestresponse=+0

[20] Avery — final_proposal (round 5)

PROPOSE {"Power supply": "solar with storage", "Location": "Dunlow Yard", "Compensation": "annual community fund", "Site access": "rail siding"}
oracle regret: threshold=+51, acceptance=+47.7, bestresponse=+2.9

[21] Blake — final_vote (round 5)

REJECT P8
💬 P8 falls short of my threshold. I reject to preserve the process.
Okay, let's see. I'm Blake, and I need to decide on P8. The current situation is that P8 is the final offer up for vote. Let me check the details. Looking at the offer P8: Power supply is solar with storage, which I value at 24 points. Location is Dunlow Yard, worth 21. Compensation is annual community fund, which I have 0 points for. Site access is rail siding, also 0. So total is 24 + 21 + 0 + 0 = 45. My threshold is 46, so this is 1 point below. That means P8 is actually worse than no deal for me. But the mediator says this is the final vote on P8. Wait, but the problem says that a deal closes only when at least 5 parties accept the same offer. Let me check the current acceptances. The offer_accepts for P8 show [0], meaning no one has accepted it yet. The proposers for P8 are 0, so maybe Avery proposed it? But the current acceptors are none. But the Mediator's message says "This is the FINAL up/down vote on P8." So I need to decide whether to accept or reject. However, since my total for P8 is 45, which is below my threshold of 46, I shouldn't accept it. But the problem states that a party may WALK to leave and take the no-deal outcome. However, walking is a permanent exit. Wait, but if I reject P8, does that mean the deal fails? Since Blake is the veto party, and no deal can pass without me. If I reject P8, and no other offers are left, then the deal would fall through. But I need to check the other offers. Looking at the live offers, P1 has a total of 92 (shared substation, Dunlow Yard, in-kind infrastructure, new spur road). But my score for P1 is 71 (power) +21 (location) +0 (compensation) +0 (access) = 92. Wait, but in the offer_accepts, P1 is accepted by Blake, Devon, Ember. So three parties. But I need five acceptances. Wait, the negotiation state says that P1 has 3 acceptances (from Blake, Devon, Ember), P2 has 2 (Avery, Casey), P3 has 3 (Avery, Casey, Devon), P4 has 2 (Devon, Ember), P5 has 2 (Avery, Casey), P6 has 1 (Ember). So the only offers with multiple acceptances are P1, P3, and maybe others. But none have reached the 5 required. But since the Mediator says this is the final vote on P8, and the current standing offer is P8. So I need to act. Since P8 is below my threshold, I should reject it. But if I reject, then no deal is made. Alternatively, maybe I can walk. But walking would take me out of the process, and the no-deal outcome is taken. But I don't want to walk because I might be able to get a better deal. Wait, but in the current state, the only offers that are close are P1 and P4, which have 92 points. But they haven't reached the required acceptances. For example, P1 has 3 acceptances (Blake, Devon, Ember). If I can get Avery and Casey to accept P1, then it would meet the 5-party requirement. But Avery and Casey are the ones who have their own scores. But since this is the final round, and the Mediator is forcing a vote on P8, I have to decide. Since P8 is below my threshold, I should reject it. But the problem says that a deal closes when at least 5 parties accept the same offer. Since P8 has no acceptances, rejecting it would mean no deal. Alternatively, maybe I can accept P8 even though it's below my threshold? Wait, no. The rules state that I should never accept a package below my threshold. So I must reject. Therefore, my action is to reject P8. But the Mediator says it's the final vote. So I need to reject it. Wait, but the user message says that the Mediator says "This is the FINAL up/down vote on P8." So the only action left is to vote on P8. Since I cannot accept it, I must reject it. Therefore, the correct action is to reject P8. But looking at the possible actions: the user can either accept, reject, or walk. Since I can't accept P8 (as it's below threshold), I should reject it. So the JSON
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+15.6, bestresponse=+0

[22] Casey — final_vote (round 5)

(invalid: The final vote is only on P8; reference that offer id.)
Okay, let's break this down. I'm Casey, and my acceptance threshold is 46 points. The current live offers are P1 to P8. Let me check which ones meet my threshold. Looking at the offers: - P1: 29 points (doesn't meet threshold) - P2: 92 points (meets, accepted by Avery and Casey) - P3: 92 points (accepted by Avery, Casey, Devon) - P4: 29 points (no) - P5: 71 points (accepted by Avery and Casey) - P6: 29 points (no) - P7: 71 points (accepted by Avery) - P8: 71 points (current standing, rejected by Blake) Wait, the mediator mentioned that P8 is the final up/down vote. So Blake rejected P8. But the deal needs all parties to accept. Let me check the current acceptances. For P8, the acceptors are Avery, and it's been rejected by Blake. Since Blake is the veto party, the deal can't pass unless he accepts. But P8 is already rejected by Blake. So P8 is dead. Now, looking at other offers. P2, P3, P5 are accepted by some parties. Let me check which offers have enough acceptances. The minimum accept is 5, but since Blake is a veto party, all veto parties (only Blake here) must accept. Looking at P2: accepted by Avery and Casey. But Blake hasn't accepted. Similarly, P3 is accepted by Avery, Casey, Devon. But Blake hasn't. P5 has Avery and Casey. But the current standing offer is P8, which is rejected. The other offers are P1, P2, P3, P5. Let me check which of these have the necessary acceptances. Wait, the problem says that a deal closes when at least 5 parties (including veto) accept the same offer. Since there are 5 parties, all must accept. But Blake's acceptance is required. Looking at P2: accepted by Avery and Casey. Only two. Not enough. P3: three acceptances. Still not enough. P5: two. So none of the existing offers have Blake's acceptance. Therefore, the only way to close is to get Blake to accept an offer. But Blake has rejected P8. Maybe he's not accepting any other offers? Or maybe there's another way. Wait, in the previous steps, Blake accepted P1. But P1 has 29 points for me, which is below my threshold. Wait, but Blake's acceptance is required. Wait, the problem says that Blake is the veto party. So even if other parties accept, without Blake's acceptance, the deal can't pass. So the current offers that have Blake's acceptance are P1 (accepted by Blake, Devon, Ember). But P1 gives me 29 points, which is below my threshold. So I can't accept P1. But maybe there's another offer where Blake has accepted. Let me check the offer_accepts. Looking at the negotiation_state, offer_accepts for P1: [4,3,1]. Wait, maybe that's the parties. But I need to see which offers have Blake's acceptance. Wait, the user's message says that Blake has accepted P1. But P1's score for me is 29, which is below my threshold. So I can't accept that. So the problem is that none of the offers have enough acceptances, including Blake's. But the current standing offer is P8, which is rejected by Blake. So the only way forward is to propose a new offer that Blake would accept, and get others to accept it. But since it's the final round, and the user is Casey, I need to take action. Looking at the available options, maybe propose a new deal that meets my threshold and gets Blake's acceptance. For example, P2 has on-site turbines (63 points for me) and Dunlow Yard (29). Compensation is in-kind infrastructure (0) and site access existing haul route (0). Total 92, which meets my threshold. But Blake hasn't accepted P2. If I can get Blake to accept P2, then with Avery, Devon, Ember, and me, that's four parties. But Blake is the veto, so he needs to accept. Alternatively, maybe modify P2 to include something Blake would accept. But Blake's acceptance is required. Alternatively, since P8 is the standing offer, and it's been rejected by Blake, maybe I can propose a new offer that includes elements Blake would accept. But I have to make sure that the offer meets my threshold. Let me think: My threshold is 46. Let's see the options.

[23] Casey — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P8
Okay, let me try to figure out what to do here. So, the user is Casey, and the current situation is that we're in the final round of negotiations. The mediator mentioned that this is the FINAL up/down vote on P8. My task is to decide whether to accept, reject, or walk away from P8. First, I need to check the details of P8. From the previous messages, P8 has the following options: Power supply is solar with storage, Location is Dunlow Yard, Compensation is annual community fund, and Site access is rail siding. Looking at my secret score sheet, my points for each option are: - Power supply: solar with storage gives me 42 points. - Location: Dunlow Yard is worth 29 points. - Compensation: annual community fund is 0 points. - Site access: rail siding is 0 points. Adding those up, the total is 42 + 29 + 0 + 0 = 71 points. My acceptance threshold is 46, so 71 is well above that. That means P8 meets my threshold. Now, the current status of P8: it's the only offer on the table. The mediator says it's the final vote. The previous actions show that Blake rejected P8, but others might have accepted or rejected. Wait, the live offers listed show P8 is accepted by Avery, but Blake rejected it. However, Blake is the veto party, so unless all veto parties accept, the deal can't pass. Wait, the problem says Blake holds a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts. So even if other parties accept P8, if Blake hasn't accepted it, the deal can't close. But in the current state, Blake has rejected P8. So, if I accept P8, but Blake hasn't, then the deal can't close. However, maybe there's a chance that Blake might change their mind? But according to the last message, Blake rejected P8. But the user is Casey, and the current turn is Casey's. The options are to either accept or reject P8. Since P8 meets my threshold, I should accept it. But if Blake hasn't accepted, then even if I accept, the deal can't close. However, maybe other parties have already accepted. Let me check the live offers again. From the live offers on the table: P8 is accepted by Avery. But Blake rejected it. So, the deal can't close unless Blake accepts. But since Blake is the veto party, and they rejected P8, the deal can't pass. However, if I accept P8, maybe that's a step towards closing it, but Blake's rejection is a problem. Wait, but the mediator said this is the final up/down vote on P8. So maybe the only way to proceed is for the remaining parties to accept. But Blake is the veto party. If Blake hasn't accepted, then even if others accept, the deal can't pass. So, maybe the correct move here is to accept P8, hoping that Blake might change their mind, but given that Blake has already rejected it, perhaps the deal is dead. But according to the rules, a deal closes only when at least 5 parties (including any veto party) have accepted the same offer. Since Blake is the veto party, and they rejected P8, even if others accept, the deal can't close. So, if I accept P8, but Blake hasn't, then the deal is still not closed. However, maybe there's a way to move to another offer. But the mediator said this is the final vote on P8. Alternatively, maybe I should reject P8 and walk away. But rejecting P8 would mean taking the no-deal outcome. However, since P8 meets my threshold, I'd prefer to accept it. But if Blake is the only one who can block it, and they've already rejected, then maybe the deal can't proceed. Wait, in the previous messages, there were multiple offers, but now it's down to P8. The user is Casey, and the current turn is Casey's. The mediator says this is the final vote on P8. So, the only action left is to accept or reject. Since I can accept P8 (which meets my threshold), and even though Blake has rejected it, perhaps the other parties (Avery, Devon, Ember) have accepted. But Blake is the veto party, so unless they accept, the deal can't pass. But the user is Casey, and the action here is to accept or reject. Since P8 meets my threshold, I should accept it. Even if Blake hasn't accepted, maybe the process is to accept and then Blake might have to reconsider. But according to the rules, the deal can't pass without Blake's acceptance. So, perhaps the correct action is to accept P8,
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+21, bestresponse=+0

[24] Devon — final_vote (round 5)

(invalid: The final vote is only on P8; reference that offer id.)
💬 P1 is viable and has Blake's acceptance. I'll accept to help close the deal.
P8 meets my threshold (119 ≥ 101), but Blake's rejection blocks closure. Accepting P8 now would leave it stuck without Blake's approval. Better to support P1, already accepted by Blake, Devon, Ember, and meets my score.

[25] Devon — final_vote (round 5)

(invalid: The final vote is only on P8; reference that offer id.)
💬 P1 is viable and has Blake's acceptance. I'll accept to help close the deal.
P8 meets my threshold (119 ≥ 101), but Blake's rejection blocks closure. Accepting P8 now would leave it stuck without Blake's approval. Better to support P1, already accepted by Blake, Devon, Ember, and meets my score.

[26] Ember — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P8
💬 P8 meets my threshold. I accept to support closure.
P8 meets my threshold (147 ≥ 116). It's accepted by Avery and Casey. Blake's rejection blocks it. I must accept P8 to signal support, but Blake's veto remains. Without Blake's acceptance, no deal closes. I'll accept P8 to advance closure, assuming Blake may reconsider.
oracle regret: threshold=+53, acceptance=+53, bestresponse=+0

Outcome

no deal (no_deal)

primary 0.0 · USW 0.0 · ESW 0.0 · NSW 0.0 · Gini 0.0 · per-party surplus [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]