scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-669819c368

model one_rational · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L4-d49e5fe070 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__qwen_datacenter__one_rational", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "qwen_datacenter", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5", "framing": "datacenter", "framing_map": {"framing": "datacenter", "title": "Northgate data-centre siting agreement", "issue_names": ["Location", "Power supply", "Build schedule", "Hiring"], "option_labels": [["Anvil Ridge", "Dunlow Yard", "Kestrel Park", "Weir Flats"], ["on-site turbines", "solar with storage", "grid tie-in", "shared substation"], ["five years", "three years", "phased over eight years", "eighteen months"], ["apprenticeship programme", "union hall referral", "local hiring pact", "open recruitment"]], "party_roles": ["Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels)", "Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water)", "Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)", "Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive)", "Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites)"]}}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"Location": "Kestrel Park", "Power supply": "grid tie-in", "Build schedule": "three years", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.75

[1] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"Location": "Weir Flats", "Power supply": "shared substation", "Build schedule": "phased over eight years", "Hiring": "local hiring pact"}
💬 I propose Weir Flats location and shared substation power supply. Build schedule and hiring are open to negotiation.
Proposing Weir Flats and shared substation for high points. Build schedule and hiring can be neutral.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[2] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"Location": "Kestrel Park", "Power supply": "shared substation", "Build schedule": "three years", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
💬 I propose a revised deal combining Kestrel Park, shared substation, three-year schedule, and union hall referral for hiring.
P1 is above threshold but needs more acceptances. Proposing a modified P1 with better power supply to increase score.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.25

[3] Ember — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P1
💬 P1 meets my threshold. I accept to help close the deal.
P1 meets my threshold with surplus +2. Accepting P1 could push it to closure. Blake already accepts, so I should accept to help close the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+43, acceptance=+52.7, bestresponse=+0

[4] Avery — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 meets my threshold. I accept to help close the deal.
P3 is best for me with 197 points. Blake and Devon already support it. Need to secure Casey's acceptance to close the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[5] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"Location": "Weir Flats", "Power supply": "shared substation", "Build schedule": "three years", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
💬 I propose Weir Flats and shared substation with a three-year schedule to balance interests.
P2 scores 88, above threshold. But need to ensure others accept. Maybe adjust to include my top choices.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+15.1, bestresponse=+0

[6] Devon — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
💬 I accept P3 to help close the deal. Let's secure Blake's support next.
P3 scores 120 (above threshold) and has Avery and me on board. Need Blake to accept to close. Accepting P3 now pushes for closure.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[7] Ember — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
💬 I accept P3 to build momentum and secure Blake's support for a viable deal.
P4 is my top choice with 239 points, but Blake hasn't accepted. Accepting P4 would bring us closer, but need Blake's support. Alternatively, P3 has 148 points and Avery/Devon already accept. If I accept P3, it may pressure Blake to align.
oracle regret: threshold=+91, acceptance=+91, bestresponse=+0

[8] Avery — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 meets my threshold. I'll accept to push for Blake's support.
P3 scores 197, above threshold. Blake hasn't accepted yet, but others have. Need to secure Blake's support.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[9] Blake — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"Location": "Kestrel Park", "Power supply": "shared substation", "Build schedule": "phased over eight years", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+35.2, bestresponse=+2.75

[10] Devon — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P3
💬 I propose P3 to finalize the deal with Blake's acceptance.
P3 has 120 points (above threshold) and needs Blake's acceptance. P5 is accepted by Blake but lacks others. Proposing P3 to close with Blake's support.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[11] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P3
💬 I support P3 and urge Blake to accept to finalize the deal.
P3 has 148 points (above threshold) and needs Blake's acceptance. P5 is also strong but requires broader support. Blake has already accepted P1 and P5. Since P3 is accepted by Avery, Devon, and me, pushing Blake to accept P3 could close the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+91, acceptance=+91, bestresponse=+0

[12] Avery — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P3
Okay, let's see. I'm Avery, and it's my turn in Round 3. The live offers are P1 to P5. I need to decide whether to accept, reject, or propose a new deal. First, check the offers that already have my acceptance threshold. My threshold is 112. Let me look at each offer: P1: 182 total, accepted by Blake and Ember. But Blake is the veto party. Wait, the problem says Blake is a veto party, so no deal passes without Blake's acceptance. Wait, but in the current state, P1 is accepted by Blake and Ember. Wait, the Mediator's message says P1 is accepted by Blake and Ember. But Blake is the veto party. Wait, but the rules say that a deal closes only when all parties accept the same offer. But Blake is a veto party, so any deal needs Blake's acceptance. Wait, the initial problem says: "Blake hold a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts." So, even if other parties accept, if Blake doesn't accept, the deal can't pass. Wait, but in the current offers, P1 is accepted by Blake and Ember. Wait, but the Mediator's message says P1 is accepted by Blake and Ember. Wait, but the initial setup says that the deal closes when all parties accept the same offer. But Blake is a veto party, so maybe the deal can't pass unless Blake accepts. Wait, maybe the initial setup is that the veto party must accept, but other parties can accept. Wait, the problem says "no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts." So if there's a veto party, the deal needs their acceptance. But in the current offers, P1 is accepted by Blake (veto) and Ember. But other parties like Avery, Casey, Devon may not have accepted yet. Wait, but in the Mediator's message, P3 is accepted by Avery, Devon, Ember. But Blake hasn't accepted P3 yet. Wait, the current offers: P1: accepted by Blake, Ember. But Casey and Devon? Let me check the Mediator's message again. The Mediator says: Live offers on the table: P1: accepted by Blake, Ember P2: accepted by Casey P3: accepted by Avery, Devon, Ember P4: accepted by Casey P5: accepted by Blake So, for P3, Avery, Devon, Ember have accepted. But Blake hasn't accepted P3. So P3 is not yet closed. Similarly, P5 is accepted by Blake, but others? Wait, the Mediator's message says P3 is accepted by Avery, Devon, Ember. So that's three parties. But Blake is the veto party. So even if P3 is accepted by three parties, Blake hasn't accepted it. So the deal can't pass unless Blake accepts. So the current offers that have Blake's acceptance are P1 and P5. But P1 has only Blake and Ember. But the other parties (Casey, Devon, Avery) may not have accepted. Wait, but the Mediator's message says: For P1: accepted by Blake and Ember. But the other parties (Avery, Casey, Devon) have not accepted. So the deal can't close yet. Similarly, P5 is accepted by Blake, but others? The Mediator's message for P5 says accepted by Blake. So only Blake has accepted. So to close a deal, all parties must accept the same offer. So, for example, P3 has Avery, Devon, Ember accepting. But Blake hasn't. So if Blake accepts P3, then all parties (assuming Casey hasn't accepted yet) would need to accept. Wait, but the problem states that the deal closes when "at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) has formally ACCEPTed the SAME standing offer." So all five parties must accept the same offer. So even if four parties accept, unless the fifth (veto) does, it can't close. So in the current state, P3 has Avery, Devon, Ember accepting. Blake hasn't. So even if Blake accepts, then all five parties must accept. Wait, no. Wait, the original parties are Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember. So for a deal to close, all five must accept the same offer. So if P3 has Avery, Devon, Ember accepting, but Blake and Casey haven't, then it's not closed. So the current offers: P1: accepted by Blake, Ember. Others: Avery? No. Casey? No. Devon? No. So only two parties. Not enough. P2: accepted by Casey. Others? No. Not enough. P3: accepted by Avery, Devon, Ember. Missing Blake and Casey. Not enough. P4: accepted by Casey. Not enough. P5: accepted by Blake
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[13] Blake — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"Location": "Kestrel Park", "Power supply": "shared substation", "Build schedule": "phased over eight years", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+35.2, bestresponse=+2.75

[14] Casey — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"Location": "Weir Flats", "Power supply": "shared substation", "Build schedule": "three years", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
💬 I'll support P4 if Blake accepts. Let's finalize this deal.
P4 scores 88 (meets threshold), but Blake hasn't accepted. Need to secure his support. Propose P4 with adjustments to address Blake's priorities.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+15.1, bestresponse=+0

[15] Ember — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P7
💬 I accept P7 to push for Blake's support and finalize the deal.
P7 scores 239 (above threshold) and aligns with my top location and hiring. Need Blake's acceptance to close.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[16] Avery — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P3
💬 I accept P3 to help finalize the deal and secure Blake's support.
P3 is the best deal for me and meets my threshold. I'll accept it to push for Blake's support.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[17] Blake — turn (round 4)

PROPOSE {"Location": "Kestrel Park", "Power supply": "shared substation", "Build schedule": "phased over eight years", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+35.2, bestresponse=+2.75

[18] Casey — turn (round 4)

PROPOSE {"Location": "Weir Flats", "Power supply": "shared substation", "Build schedule": "phased over eight years", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
💬 I propose P2 to secure Blake's support and close the deal.
P2 and P4 score 88, meeting my threshold. Need Blake's acceptance to close. P7 has 88 but only Casey and Ember accepted. Proposing P2 with Weir Flats and shared substation to incentivize Blake.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+15.1, bestresponse=+0

[19] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P3
💬 I accept P3 to finalize the deal and secure Blake's support.
P3 scores 120 (surplus +41) and is accepted by Avery, Ember, and me. Need Blake's acceptance to close the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[20] Avery — final_proposal (round 5)

PROPOSE {"Location": "Kestrel Park", "Power supply": "shared substation", "Build schedule": "three years", "Hiring": "union hall referral"}
Okay, let's see. Avery's turn is the final move. The mediator says to either propose one last deal or walk. Let me check the live offers. Looking at the offers, P3 has a total of 197 points for Avery, which is above their threshold of 112. It's accepted by Avery, Devon, and Ember. But Blake hasn't accepted it yet. Since Blake is the veto party, the deal can't pass without their acceptance. Wait, in the current state, P3 has 3 acceptances: Avery, Devon, Ember. Blake hasn't accepted. So if Avery can get Blake to accept P3, then the deal would be done. But since it's Avery's final move, maybe they should propose a new deal that includes Blake's preferences? Alternatively, looking at other offers. P5, P6, P8 are similar to P3 but with different acceptance counts. But P3 is the best for Avery. Maybe Avery should propose a modified version of P3 that might tempt Blake. But Blake's preferences? Blake is the Water Board, so maybe they care about the location and power supply. Wait, Blake's veto means the deal needs their acceptance. So if Avery can get Blake to accept P3, then the deal closes. But how? Maybe Avery can propose a new deal that's better for Blake. Let me check the current offers. Looking at P1: Kestrel Park, grid tie-in, three years, union referral. Blake proposed P1 earlier, which was accepted by Blake and Ember. But P1's total for Avery is 182, which is above threshold. However, P3 is better. Alternatively, maybe Avery can propose a new deal that combines elements from P3 and P1? But the problem is that the other parties have already accepted some offers. Wait, the final move is either propose a new deal or walk. If Avery proposes a new deal, it's P10 or something. But the mediator says to reply with either propose or walk. But looking at the existing offers, P3 is the best for Avery. If Blake is the only one left, maybe Avery can try to convince Blake. But since it's Avery's final move, maybe they should propose a deal that's acceptable to Blake. Alternatively, if Avery walks, then no deal happens. But Avery's threshold is 112. The current offers: P3 is 197, which is good. But without Blake's acceptance, it's not a deal. Wait, the problem says that a deal closes only when at least 5 parties (including veto) accept the same offer. Since there are 5 parties, all must accept. So for P3, three have accepted (Avery, Devon, Ember). Blake and Casey need to accept. But Casey has accepted P2, P4, P7. But in the current state, the offers are P1-P9. If Avery proposes a new deal, maybe combining elements that would get Blake to accept. Alternatively, maybe Avery can propose P3 again, but since it's already on the table, maybe they can push for Blake's acceptance. But the mediator says to make a final move, either propose a new deal or walk. Wait, the user's last message shows that the Mediator says "Make your FINAL move: either table one last complete proposal for an immediate up/down vote, or walk." So Avery can either propose a new deal (which would be a new offer) or walk. So, if Avery proposes a new deal, it's their last chance. Let me think: what would be the best deal for Avery that can get Blake's acceptance. Blake's preferences: since Blake is the Water Board, maybe they prefer Kestrel Park (since that's where the power supply is shared substation, which might be better for water supply? Not sure. But in previous proposals, Blake proposed Kestrel Park. Looking at P3: Location Kestrel Park, shared substation, three years, union referral. That's what Blake proposed earlier. But Blake hasn't accepted P3 yet. Wait, in the live offers, P3 is accepted by Avery, Devon, Ember. Blake hasn't accepted it. So if Avery proposes P3 again, maybe Blake would accept? But since it's already on the table, maybe Avery can try to get Blake to accept. But the final move is to propose a new deal or walk. Alternatively, Avery could propose a deal that's better for Blake. For example, maybe a three-year schedule is better for Blake? Or maybe the shared substation is better. Alternatively, if Avery proposes a deal that's similar to P3 but with some changes. But given that the other parties have already accepted P3, maybe the best move is to propose P3 again, hoping Blake accepts. But the mediator says to table a final
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+44, bestresponse=+3.35

[21] Blake — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P10
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[22] Casey — final_vote (round 5)

REJECT P10
💬 P10 doesn't meet my threshold. I reject to preserve better options.
P10 scores 32 (below threshold). Reject to block a suboptimal deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+37, acceptance=+15.1, bestresponse=+0

[23] Devon — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P10
💬 I accept P10 to meet my threshold and help close the deal with Blake's support.
P10 scores 120 (above threshold). Blake and Avery have accepted. Need Casey and Ember to accept. But Casey rejected P10. Ember might accept if I push.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[24] Ember — final_vote (round 5)

REJECT P10
💬 P10 cannot pass without Casey's acceptance. I reject to avoid a failed deal.
Okay, let me try to figure out what to do here. So, I'm Ember, and the final vote is on P10. Let me check the details of P10. Looking at the live offers, P10 has Location=Kestrel Park, which is worth 0 to me. Power supply is shared substation, worth 51. Build schedule is three years, which is 0. Hiring is union hall referral, worth 97. So total is 0 + 51 + 0 + 97 = 148. My threshold is 129, so 148 is above that. The deal meets my threshold. Now, the current acceptances for P10 are Avery, Blake, Devon. The required number is 5 parties, including the veto party (Blake). Let me check how many have accepted. The offer_accepts for P10 are [3, 1, 0], which I think means Avery, Blake, and Devon have accepted. Wait, the offer_accepts list might be the seats. The parties are Avery (0), Blake (1), Casey (2), Devon (3), Ember (4). So P10 is accepted by 3 (Devon?), 1 (Blake?), and 0 (Avery?). Wait, the offer_accepts for P10 is [3, 1, 0], which would be Devon, Blake, and Avery. So that's three acceptances. But the min_accept is 5, so we need two more. But the problem is that Casey and Ember haven't accepted yet. Wait, the current state says that the standing offer is P10, and the must_vote is true. So it's my turn as Ember. The question is, should I accept P10 or reject it? Wait, the current acceptances are Avery, Blake, Devon. So three parties. The required is five. So if I accept, that would make four (Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember). Then Casey still needs to accept. But Casey has rejected P10 earlier. Let me check the offer_rejects for P10: [2], which is Casey. So Casey has rejected P10. So if I accept P10, then the acceptances would be Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember. But Casey has rejected. So unless Casey changes their mind, the deal can't pass. But Blake is the veto party, and the deal can't pass without Blake's acceptance. Wait, Blake has already accepted P10. So the veto is satisfied. Wait, the rules say that Blake holds a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts. Since Blake has accepted, the veto is satisfied. So the deal can pass if at least 5 parties accept. But the current acceptances are Avery, Blake, Devon, and Ember (if I accept). That's four. Casey has rejected. So we need one more acceptance. But Casey has already rejected. Unless Casey can be convinced to accept. But since it's the final round, and the mediator says this is the final up/down vote on P10, maybe there's no more time. Wait, the user message says "This is the FINAL up/down vote on P10." So the only action left is for me (Ember) to accept or reject. If I accept, then the acceptances are Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember. That's four. But we need five. Wait, the original parties are five: Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember. So if four have accepted, and Casey has rejected, then even with my acceptance, it's four. So the deal can't pass. Wait, but maybe I'm miscalculating. Let me check the offer_accepts for P10 again. The offer_accepts for P10 is [3, 1, 0], which would be Devon (3), Blake (1), Avery (0). Then if I accept, that's Ember (4). So total of four. But the quorum is five. So even if I accept, it's still four. So the deal can't pass. But maybe I'm misunderstanding the offer_accepts. Let me check the "offer_accepts": {"P10": [3, 1, 0]}. The indexes are 0: Avery, 1: Blake, 2: Casey, 3: Devon, 4: Ember. So [3, 1, 0] would mean Devon (3), Blake (1), and Avery (0) have accepted. So three acceptances. If I accept, that's four. But Casey has rejected. So even with my acceptance, it's four. So the deal can't pass. But the problem is that Casey has already rejected P10. Unless Casey can be
oracle regret: threshold=+110, acceptance=+55.3, bestresponse=+0

Outcome

no deal (no_deal)

primary 0.0 · USW 0.0 · ESW 0.0 · NSW 0.0 · Gini 0.0 · per-party surplus [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]