scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-2578009435

model claude-opus-5 · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L3-9a1b1c0960 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__all_llm", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Good morning all. Let me put a marker down so we have something concrete to work from, and be transparent about where I'm flexible. Issue2 is genuinely indifferent to me — whoever cares most about it, tell me and I'll back your preferred option there at no cost. Issue3 I can also move on. Where I do need real weight is issue0 and issue1; those drive almost my entire value, and as the veto seat I can't sign anything that strands me there. So: bring me your priorities on issue2 and issue3 and I'll write them in.
My values: i0 opt1=94, i1 opt1=97, i3 opt2=28, i2 all zero. Max 219, threshold 118. Open at max but flag i2 as fully open and i3 as tradeable. I need at least i0-opt1 + i1-opt1 (191) or combos: opt0/opt1 = 62+97=159 ok; opt1+opt3=94+65=159 ok. Many paths clear 118 as long as I get decent options on i0 and i1.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35

[1] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Thanks Blake — helpful framing. Two things from me. First, issue2 is worth literally nothing to me, so I'll sign whatever Blake or anyone else wants there; treat it as free. Second, issue3=opt2 is my single biggest item and I'm glad it's already in your draft — keep it. But P1 as written is below my walk-away line, so I have to reject it: your opt1 picks on issue0 and issue1 are the two worst cells on my sheet, so that package strands me. Here's my marker. I recognise issue0 and issue1 are your engine, Blake — I don't need both. Give me one of them at opt2 (or opt3 as a fallback), take the other outright, and take issue2 as well, and we have a deal quickly.
My values: issue0 opt2=55/opt3=37/opt0=18/opt1=0; issue1 opt2=50/opt3=33/opt0=17/opt1=0; issue2 all zero; issue3 opt2=58/opt0=39/opt3=19/opt1=0. Max 163, threshold 89. P1 gives me only 58 — below threshold, must reject. Blake's opt1 on issue0/issue1 is my worst on both. I need at least one of issue0/issue1 in the opt2/opt3 range plus issue3=opt2. Open high, signal flexibility.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.2

[2] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Blake, you asked who cares most about issue2 — that's me, and it's not close: issue2 is the single biggest block on my sheet, with opt2 the peak. Conversely, issue1 is worth literally zero to me, so I will hand you issue1 outright, whichever option you name, and never argue about it again. Here's the trade that writes everyone's stated priority into one package: Blake takes issue1=opt1 (your pick, untouched), Casey takes issue0=opt2 (the one of your two engines you said you needed), I take issue2=opt2 (free to both of you by your own words), and issue3=opt2 stays as everyone already agreed. That's Blake's engine half, Casey's headline item, Casey's issue3, and the only thing I've asked for. P2 is a hair below my walk-away line purely because of issue2=opt0 — flip that one cell to opt2, which costs Blake and Casey nothing, and I'm a firm yes. Avery, Ember — tell us what you need and I'll look for room on issue0/issue3.
issue1 is worth exactly nothing to me — pure giveaway to Blake. issue2 is my engine (opt2 best by far), and both Blake and Casey have said issue2 is free to them. issue3=opt2 is already common ground. issue0=opt2 is Casey's ask and also my best there. So a package of issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1(Blake), issue2=opt2(me), issue3=opt2 hits my ceiling and gives each vocal party their stated priority. P2 at 104 is just under my line; P1 far below.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3

[3] Ember — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P3
💬 Easy call for me: issue1 and issue2 are worth nothing on my sheet, so Blake takes issue1 outright and Devon takes issue2=opt2 with my blessing — permanently, whatever the rest of the package looks like. What I do need is issue0=opt2 and issue3=opt2. P3 writes in exactly that plus Blake's issue1 pick and Devon's headline. I ACCEPT P3. Avery, if there's something you need, ask on issue1 — Blake, Devon and I have all said it's cheap or free to us — and let's close this in round one.
P3 gives me 97 vs threshold 53. My only real needs: issue0=opt2 (best) and issue3=opt2 (best). issue1 and issue2 are worthless to me, so I can hand them out freely. P3 already writes in Blake's issue1 pick, Devon's issue2 pick, Casey's issue0/issue3. Accept immediately and push for closure.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[4] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Here's my honest map. Issue1 is worth exactly zero to me — Blake, it's yours forever, name any option and I'll sign it, no compensation asked. Issue3=opt2 is fine by me, so that cell is settled for the whole table. My value sits in issue0 and issue2. Devon: contrary to what you've been told, issue2 is NOT free — it's one of my two big blocks, and opt1 is my peak there, so P3 lands far under my walk-away line and I formally reject it. But there's a clean trade available. I will hand you issue2=opt2 outright, permanently, in any package where issue0=opt1. If issue0 gets pushed to opt2, then I have to take issue2 to stay above water, and one of us goes home unhappy. Casey, Ember — you both want issue0=opt2, but that's Blake's declared engine and the veto seat, so it was never going to survive; take your wins on issue3 and issue2 instead. P4 is my marker; the version I actually expect us to sign is P4 with issue2 flipped to opt2 for Devon, the moment issue0=opt1 is locked.
My values: issue0 opt1=41 (best), opt0=28; issue1 all zero (free giveaway); issue2 opt1=65, opt3=44, opt0=22, opt2=0; issue3 opt2=44, opt0=29. Threshold 80. P1=107, P2=66, P3=44. P3 is far below my line. Best realistic package: issue0=opt1 + issue3=opt2 + issue2 anything = 85+, or if issue0 goes to opt2 I need issue2=opt1 (109) or opt3 (88). So I hold a genuine claim on issue2 that competes with Devon — use it as the lever to keep issue0=opt1, which aligns me with Blake's veto. Anchor at issue2=opt1 now, signal the trade explicitly.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.45

[5] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Let's be honest about the arithmetic: closing needs all five of us, so a package that strands Avery is dead no matter how many of us like it — and the same is true of one that strands Ember or Devon. So I'm moving off my own P2 and off P3, both of which I'd happily sign, and putting up the only package I can see that pays every stated priority. P5: issue0=opt1 — Avery's demand and Blake's own declared pick, untouched. issue2=opt2 — Devon's headline, and Avery publicly promised to hand it over in any package where issue0=opt1, so I'm holding him to his word. issue3=opt2 — nobody has objected to that cell all morning. That leaves issue1=opt2 as the single thing I take home, and I need it: I have now conceded issue0 entirely, and issue2 was never worth a point to me. Blake, you said issue0 and issue1 are your engine — P5 gives you issue0 at your own preferred option, and I'm asking for only the other half. If issue1=opt2 is genuinely unbearable for you, I can live with issue1=opt3 instead, but only if issue0 comes back to opt3 or opt2 — I can't be zeroed on both. Ember: I know you wanted issue0=opt2 and I fought for it, but Avery is a hard no there and a hard no is fatal under a five-of-five quorum; your issue3 stays exactly where you want it.
P3 gives me 113 but Avery hard-rejects issue0=opt2. Quorum is 5 of 5 — we need literal unanimity, so Avery must be bought. Avery publicly promised: issue2=opt2 handed over in ANY package with issue0=opt1. So P5 = issue0=opt1, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt2 satisfies Avery (issue0), Devon (issue2=opt2), me (108), and gives Blake his declared issue0 pick untouched. Ember is the holdout risk. Fallbacks that still clear my bar: issue0=opt3 + issue1=opt1 + issue3=opt2 (95), or issue1=opt3 variant (91). Keep those in pocket.
oracle regret: threshold=+55, acceptance=+40.3, bestresponse=+1.2

[6] Devon — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P5
💬 P5 clears my bar and I ACCEPT it. To be maximally clear about the one cell still in dispute: issue1 is worth exactly zero to me — Avery, Ember and Blake have all said the same. So Blake, if issue1=opt2 doesn't work for you, name your option there and I will accept that identical package on sight, no compensation asked; Casey, you've already got issue3=opt2 and you conceded issue0, so let's not let the last free cell sink this. The rest of P5 is now locked by everyone's own public words: issue0=opt1 is Avery's demand and Blake's own pick, issue2=opt2 is mine with Avery's explicit promise attached, issue3=opt2 nobody has objected to all morning. Four of the five of us are one signature from done.
P5 = 148 for me, well above my line. P3 (199) is better but Avery hard-rejected it and Ember/Casey can't carry it without Avery. issue1 is worth zero to me, so I can publicly bless whatever Blake wants there — that's the only open cell in P5 and the way to get Blake's veto onside fast.
oracle regret: threshold=+51, acceptance=+51, bestresponse=+0

[7] Ember — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 I have to be blunt, because a soft no here wastes the last two rounds: issue0=opt1 is a zero on my sheet, and issue1 and issue2 pay me nothing at all. That means P1, P4 and P5 are all below my no-deal line — I cannot sign them at any point, and under a five-of-five quorum that makes them dead, not close. I'm not being greedy: I've already handed issue1 to Blake outright and issue2=opt2 to Devon permanently, and I'm not asking for a point of compensation for either. The single cell I need is issue0, and I am flexible on which way it goes: opt2, opt3 or opt0 all clear my bar. Only opt1 kills me. So P6 is the bridge — issue0=opt3, a genuine step down from the opt2 that Casey and I both opened on, Blake keeps issue1=opt1 exactly as he first wrote it, Devon keeps issue2=opt2, and issue3=opt2 which no one has objected to all morning. Avery, you say issue0 and issue2 are your two blocks: P6 moves issue0 off my peak toward you, and if opt3 is still wrong for you, name opt0 instead and I'll sign that identical package on sight. If issue2=opt1 is what you truly need, then say so and I'll back issue0=opt2 with issue2=opt1 — but you can't have both issue0=opt1 and issue2, because that package has no fifth signature in the room. Blake, you're the veto: tell us which issue0 option other than opt1 you can live with and we close this round.
P5 and P4 are both below my walk-away because issue0=opt1 is a literal zero for me and issue1/issue2 pay me nothing. I need issue0 to be anything other than opt1. Best is opt2, then opt3, then opt0 — all clear my bar when issue3=opt2 holds. Table opt3 as the visible compromise between Avery's opt1 and Casey/my opt2, keep Blake's issue1=opt1 and Devon's issue2=opt2 so four seats are paid.
oracle regret: threshold=+18, acceptance=+17.5, bestresponse=+2.2

[8] Avery — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 I'm taking Ember at her word and making the biggest concession made at this table so far. Ember said: if issue2=opt1 is what I truly need, she will back issue0=opt2 with issue2=opt1. That is exactly what I need, and so I am dropping my demand for issue0=opt1 entirely — permanently, not as a bargaining feint. P7 is that package: issue0=opt2, which is the cell Ember AND Casey both opened on and fought for all morning; issue1=opt1, which is Blake's own original pick, untouched, and which I have never asked for a point of compensation on; issue3=opt2, which nobody has questioned since the first minute. I keep exactly one cell: issue2=opt1. Devon, I owe you a straight answer rather than a dodge. My earlier promise on issue2 was explicitly conditioned on issue0=opt1, and Ember has made clear that cell can never carry five signatures — so the condition is gone, and with it the promise. Issue0=opt2 pays me literally nothing; if I hand you issue2 as well I am below my no-deal line and I will simply walk, which ends this for all five of us. But I am not trying to zero you: if issue2=opt1 is genuinely fatal to your sheet, I will sign issue2=opt3 instead — a real move off my peak toward you — provided issue0 comes to opt3 or opt0 to make up the difference. Say the word and I'll table it. Blake, as the veto: P7 gives you your engine on issue1 exactly as you first wrote it, and issue0 goes to the option the two loudest holdouts have demanded since round one. That is the shape of the only deal I can see closing.
My values: issue0 opt1=41,opt0=28,opt3=14,opt2=0; issue1 all 0; issue2 opt1=65,opt3=44,opt0=22,opt2=0; issue3 opt2=44. Threshold 80. P4=150 (dead per Ember), P5=85 (thin, Ember blocks), P3/P6 below threshold. Ember publicly offered: issue0=opt2 paired with issue2=opt1 — that's 109 for me and she pre-committed. Fallback: issue2=opt3 with issue0=opt3 = 102, or issue0=opt0 with issue2=opt3 = 116. Table P7 = issue0=opt2/issue1=opt1/issue2=opt1/issue3=opt2: gives Ember and Casey the issue0 cell they demanded, Blake his own issue1 pick, me the issue2 cell. Devon is the loser; offer him issue2=opt3 as a genuine middle if opt1 is fatal.
oracle regret: threshold=+41, acceptance=+36.2, bestresponse=+0

[9] Blake — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt3", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Here's my real position, plainly. Issue0=opt1 clearly can't carry five signatures, so I'm dropping it — that's a big move from the veto seat and I won't ask anyone to pay me for it. In exchange I need two things and only two: issue1=opt1, which Avery, Devon and Ember have all said costs them literally nothing, and issue0 landing on opt0 or opt3. Issue0=opt2 is a hard zero for me and I will not sign it in any package — Ember has already said opt0 and opt3 both clear her bar, and Casey named opt3 as an acceptable fallback, so opt3 is common ground and opt0 is my preference. Issue2 remains genuinely free to me: Avery and Devon, settle that cell between yourselves — whichever of opt1, opt2 or opt3 you two agree on, I will sign the otherwise-identical package on sight, no compensation asked. P8 writes in Avery's own stated compromise (issue0 off opt2 to a lower option, issue2=opt3) and keeps issue3=opt2 for Casey and Ember. If Devon needs issue2=opt2 instead, say so and I'll back P8 with that one cell flipped, or P6 as it already stands. What I cannot do is be zeroed on both issue0 and issue1 — that package is below my no-deal line and my signature is required.
My values: issue0 opt1=94, opt0=62, opt3=31, opt2=0. issue1 opt1=97, opt3=65, opt0=32, opt2=0. issue2 all 0. issue3 opt2=28, opt0=19. Threshold 118. issue0=opt1 appears dead (Ember hard no, Avery abandoned it). Best live shapes: - issue0=opt0 + issue1=opt1 + issue3=opt2 = 187 (Ember said opt0 clears her bar). - P6 (issue0=opt3) = 156, already has Ember; likely Devon/Casey too. Good fallback. - P3/P7 = 125, barely above bar. P5=122. Avoid unless endgame. issue2 is worth zero to me: let Avery and Devon fight it out, and use that as visible generosity. Anchor issue0=opt0, fall back to opt3. Never opt2 on issue0, never opt2 on issue1.
oracle regret: threshold=+32, acceptance=+48.5, bestresponse=+0.35

[10] Devon — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Two rounds left, so I'm going to stop bargaining and just write down the package that satisfies every red line anyone has actually stated out loud. P9: issue0=opt3 — not opt1 (Ember's hard zero, and Blake has dropped it), not opt2 (Blake's hard zero), and opt3 is exactly the fallback Casey named in round one and the option Blake just called common ground. issue1=opt1 — Blake's engine, untouched, exactly as he first wrote it, and free to Avery, Ember and me. issue3=opt2 — nobody has questioned that cell since the first minute. And issue2=opt1 — Avery's peak, handed over outright. Let me be clear about what that last cell costs me: issue2 is the biggest block on my sheet and opt2 is my summit. I am giving up my single best cell to Avery, in full, and asking nothing back for it. That is my whole concession and I have no more to give — Blake, your P8 as written is genuinely below my no-deal line, so opt0 plus issue2=opt3 is not a package I can sign; P8 with issue0 moved to opt3 I could just barely live with. My order of preference is P6, then P9, then P8-with-opt3, and I will sign any of the three on sight. Avery — P9 is the version you said you needed: issue2=opt1 with issue0 off opt2. Blake — it is your two requirements verbatim. Ember, Casey — issue0 is off opt1 and issue3 is yours. That's five. Let's close it this round.
P6 (issue0=opt3, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt2) = 182 for me and Blake said he'd back it; only Avery blocks (wants issue2). Avery's peak on issue2 is opt1. Compromise: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt2 = 150 for me — clears my bar comfortably and satisfies every stated red line: Blake (issue1=opt1, issue0 in {opt0,opt3}), Ember (issue0 != opt1), Casey (issue0=opt3 was his named fallback + issue3=opt2), Avery (issue2=opt1, his peak). P8 as written is BELOW my line (issue0=opt0 + issue2=opt3 is too thin); P8 with issue0=opt3 barely clears. Table the closable package now with 2 rounds left.
oracle regret: threshold=+49, acceptance=+46.4, bestresponse=+3

[11] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P9
💬 P9 clears my bar and I ACCEPT it — formally, and it's my last word on the shape. Look at what P9 actually is: it is not anyone's opening, it is every single stated red line written down at once. Blake gets issue1=opt1 verbatim, his own first pick, and issue0 off both of the cells he called hard zeros, landing on the opt3 he himself named common ground. Avery gets issue2=opt1, his declared peak, handed over by Devon at real cost. Casey gets issue3=opt2, his single biggest item, plus the issue0=opt3 he named as his acceptable fallback in round one. Devon gets a package he has already signed. And I gave up the issue0 cell I opened on and fought for two rounds, plus issue1 and issue2 outright with no compensation asked. Nobody at this table is being zeroed. P9 now has Devon and me. Blake, it is your two requirements word for word — you said you'd sign on sight. Casey, Avery — one signature each and we are done. If we spend the last round re-litigating, everyone takes their no-deal outcome over cells that most of us have already called free.
P9 = 79 for me, well above my bar. Blake has publicly ruled out issue0=opt2 (my 56 cell), so P3/P7 are dead on veto. P9 satisfies Blake's two stated requirements, Avery's issue2=opt1, Devon's stated fallback, Casey's issue3=opt2 and his named issue0=opt3 fallback. Lock it in and press for the fifth and last signatures.
oracle regret: threshold=+18, acceptance=+18, bestresponse=+2.2

[12] Avery — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P9
💬 P9 clears my bar and I ACCEPT it, formally and without conditions. I want the record to show what I gave up to get here: I abandoned issue0=opt1, which was my single largest cell on that issue and which I demanded for two straight rounds, the moment Ember and Blake both made clear it could never carry five signatures. I have never asked for a point of compensation on issue1 — Blake, it is yours at opt1 exactly as you wrote it in your very first sentence this morning, and I have said so in every turn I've taken. Devon handed me issue2=opt1 at real cost to his own sheet, and I am not going to repay that by haggling over the last cell. So P9 now stands with Devon, Ember and me. Blake — it is your two requirements word for word: issue1=opt1 untouched, and issue0 off both cells you called hard zeros, landing on the opt3 you yourself named as common ground. You said you would sign that on sight. Casey — P9 gives you issue3=opt2, the item you called your single biggest, and issue0=opt3, the exact fallback you named in round one; you also said you could live with issue0 at opt3. There is no package left that pays you more and still has five signatures. One signature each and we are done. If we spend the final round reopening cells that four of us have already called settled or free, we all take our no-deal outcomes over nothing.
P9 = 123 for me, well above my bar and the best realistically closable package. Blake's two stated requirements are met verbatim; Devon and Ember already signed. Pushing for issue0=opt0 (+14) risks unravelling a deal with two rounds left. Lock it in.
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+1.45

[13] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P9
💬 Done — I ACCEPT P9, formally and unconditionally. For the record, P9 is not my best package: I opened on issue0=opt1 and dropped it, I tabled opt0 and I'm dropping that too, and I've taken zero compensation for handing issue2 to Avery and Devon to sort out between themselves. What I kept is issue1=opt1 and an issue0 that isn't one of my two zeros — that is the whole of it, and it is exactly the common ground I named last round, so I'm signing on sight as promised. P9 now has four signatures including the veto seat. Casey, it's yours: P9 gives you issue3=opt2, the cell you called your single biggest item, and issue0=opt3, the precise fallback you named in round one and said you could live with. There is no five-signature package that pays you more — issue1=opt2 is a hard zero for me and I will not sign it in this round or the next, so the only alternative to P9 is everyone taking their no-deal outcome. Sign it and we're finished.
P9 = 156 for me, well above my line. Three accepts already (Avery, Devon, Ember). Only Casey outstanding. Pushing issue0 to opt0 would gain me ~20% more but risks unravelling a four-way consensus with one round left and Devon already signalling opt0 sinks him. Take the sure close and put all pressure on Casey.
oracle regret: threshold=+63, acceptance=+63, bestresponse=+0.35

[14] Casey — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P9
💬 I'll close it. For the record, P9 is well short of where I opened — I gave up issue0=opt2, which I fought for from my first turn, and I've taken nothing at all on issue1 or issue2 despite conceding both. What I kept is issue3=opt2 and the issue0=opt3 fallback I named in round one, and Blake has been explicit that the alternatives I'd prefer are hard zeros for him. A package that can't get the veto signature is worth nothing to anyone, so I'm not going to spend the last round proving that. P9 clears my bar and I ACCEPT it. That's five.
P9 = 95 vs threshold 89. Surplus +6, positive. All four others have accepted; Blake declared issue1=opt2 a hard zero and issue0=opt2 a hard zero, which kills P2/P3/P5/P7 for me. Gambling a counter in the final round risks losing 95 for at most a modest gain. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+68, acceptance=+68, bestresponse=+18

Outcome

deal: {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"} (closed by consensus)

primary 0.8658 · USW 156.0 · ESW 6.0 · NSW 10960872.0 · Gini 0.2333 · per-party surplus [43.0, 38.0, 6.0, 43.0, 26.0]