scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-35f77b4afb

model claude-opus-5 · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L0-34733a57e6 · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__all_llm", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Opening package to get us started. Let me be straightforward about where I can move: issue0 and issue2 are close to neutral for me — I will follow whoever cares most about them, including Blake, and I'll sign whatever combination the rest of you want there. In exchange, I need the shape of issue1 and issue3 in P1. Tell me your priorities on issue0/issue2 and I'll fold them in immediately next round.
Only issue1 and issue3 carry value for me: best is issue1=opt2 (44) and issue3=opt3 (67) = 111. issue0 and issue2 are worth nothing to me — perfect currency to trade away. Threshold 44, so I need at least issue1=opt2, or issue3=opt1/opt3, or a combination. Open at my ideal while loudly offering full flexibility on issue0/issue2 to speed efficient trade in only 4 rounds.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.35

[1] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Thanks Avery. Straight answer on priorities: issue0 is genuinely worthless to me in every direction — whoever cares about it, take it, I will sign any option there without argument. Issue2 I have a preference but I can trade it. What I cannot do is issue3=opt3; that option is a zero for me and P1 lands well under my walk-away line, so I have to reject it. Issue3 is the one place I need to be served, and issue1 matters second. Here is my opening: issue0 is yours to fill in, and I'll move on issue1/issue2 as you tell me your needs.
P1 = 63, below my bar of 81. issue3=opt3 is worthless to me; issue3 is my highest-leverage issue. issue0 is literally identical across all options for me — pure trading currency. Open near my max: 200, and signal flexibility on issue0 (free) and some on issue1/issue2.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1

[2] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Useful signals so far. Mine: issue0 is my single biggest item and I need opt0 there — good news, Avery and Blake both already put opt0 in and Blake says it's worthless to him, so that's free. Issue2 is genuinely worth nothing to me in any direction: Blake, Devon, Ember, name your option and I will sign it, no compensation asked. Issue1=opt2 is already common ground in both packages. That leaves issue3 as the only real fight: Blake can't take opt3, and opt2 is a hard zero for me. So I'm tabling the obvious bridge — issue3=opt1, with issue2 set to Blake's stated pick. That's me giving up my best option on the one contested issue.
P1=121, P2=76 for me. Blake vetoes issue3=opt3, so P1 is dead. issue3 ranking for me: opt3>opt1>opt0>opt2. Push opt1 as middle ground. issue0=opt0 is my biggest single item and Blake says it's worthless to him — lock it. issue1=opt2 already agreed by both. issue2 is a total zero for me — give it away freely as currency. Proposal = 106 for me.
oracle regret: threshold=+15, acceptance=+36.1, bestresponse=+3.55

[3] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt3", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Good convergence. Confirming: issue0=opt0 works for me (Casey takes it, free), and issue1=opt2 is settled — it's my best there too. Issue3: I accept the bridge at opt1 rather than pushing opt3, which is a real concession on my side since opt3 was my top pick. In return I'm asking for the one issue three of you have called cheap or free: issue2=opt3. Casey says issue2 is worthless to them, Avery says near-neutral, Blake says it's tradeable. So P4 = Casey's package with only issue2 changed. Blake, if opt3 there is a hard zero for you, tell me and I'll settle for issue2=opt0 as a middle — but opt1 is the weakest version for me and I'd need issue3 compensation to swallow it.
P3 = 93 for me, well above threshold. P1 = 127 but Blake vetoes issue3=opt3. Try to grab issue2=opt3 (my best there) since Casey says issue2 is free to them and Avery is neutral; only Blake has a stated preference (opt1). Package: issue0=opt0, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt3, issue3=opt1 = 125 for me. Fallback P3 is fine.
oracle regret: threshold=+2, acceptance=+27.3, bestresponse=+2.55

[4] Ember — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt3", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Cards on the table: issue2 is worth exactly nothing to me in every direction — I will never fight anyone over it, so Devon, take opt3 there with my blessing. issue0=opt0 I can live with, which hands Casey their stated biggest item for free. issue1=opt2 is already unanimous. What I do need is issue3=opt2 — that is my one genuine must, and it happens to be exactly what Blake, our veto holder, put in P2 and what keeps him above his walk-away line. So P5 is simply Blake's package with Devon's issue2 request folded in at zero cost to me. Casey: you get issue0 and you get to name issue2 if Devon doesn't want it; issue3 is where I have to be paid, and Blake can't take opt3 there either. P2 also clears my bar and I'll accept it as-is if P5 stalls; issue3=opt1 packages are the thin ones for me.
P2 (issue3=opt2) is by far my best of the live offers: issue3=opt2 is my top item and issue1=opt2 my second. issue2 is literally worth nothing to me in any direction — pure currency to buy issue3=opt2. Best play: table Blake's package with Devon's issue2 ask folded in, so Blake (veto) keeps issue3=opt2 and issue1=opt2, Casey keeps issue0=opt0, Devon gets issue2=opt3. Only Casey loses on issue3, but they win their self-declared biggest item. Fallback: accept P2 later.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+21.7, bestresponse=+0

[5] Blake — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm the veto holder, so let me remove all doubt: P5 clears my line and I am formally accepting it now. Look at what P5 does — Casey gets issue0=opt0, their stated biggest item, free. Devon gets issue2=opt3, exactly what they asked for. Ember gets issue3=opt2, their stated must. issue1=opt2 is unanimous. Every party at this table named a priority and P5 pays four of them in full. Casey, I hear you that issue3=opt2 is thin for you, but I cannot sign opt3 and opt2 is the one place I have to be paid — that's the same constraint Ember has, and between us that's the veto plus a second seat. In exchange you already hold issue0 outright and I dropped my own preference on issue2 to hand Devon their ask. If issue2 is truly worthless to you, then P5 costs you only issue3 and pays you your number one. I'd rather close here than let four satisfied parties walk away with nothing over one issue. P5 — I accept.
P5 = 143 for me, well above my line. P2 (200) is better but the only difference is issue2, which Devon explicitly needs at opt3 and which Casey/Ember/Avery all call free. Chasing +57 there risks stalling the one package that already satisfies Casey (issue0), Devon (issue2), Ember (issue3) and me. Lock it in as veto holder to make P5 the focal point.
oracle regret: threshold=+57, acceptance=+57, bestresponse=+0

[6] Casey — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P4
💬 Let me be precise about what I've actually paid so far. I gave up my top option on issue3 in round one — unprompted — and moved to opt1 as a bridge. I handed issue2 to Devon without asking for anything. Issue1=opt2 was agreed before I said a word. So the ledger reads: I have conceded on every issue where I had something to concede, and issue0 was free by Blake's own account — he called it worthless in every direction, so it costs the room nothing and cannot be counted as my payment. P5 asks me to concede the last contested issue as well, on top of all that. That is not a settlement, that is a clean sweep. I am formally accepting P4 — Devon's package — which pays Devon in full, pays Ember and Blake on issue0/issue1/issue2, and splits issue3 down the middle at opt1 rather than handing it to one side. Blake, Ember: opt1 is not opt3. I am not asking either of you to swallow the option you called a hard zero — I dropped that already. I am asking you to take the middle instead of the maximum. And here is one more thing on the table: issue1 is currently at opt2 because nobody contested it. If either of you has a better option there, name it and I will move to it as part of a package that carries issue3=opt1. That is a genuine trade and it is the last currency I hold. If the answer is that four parties must be paid in full and I must be paid only in an issue the veto holder himself called worthless, then we should all be honest that P5 isn't a compromise — it's a demand.
P4 = 106 for me, P5 = 76. Both above threshold, so worst case I take P5 later — it stays live. Round 2 of 4, plenty of time to push for issue3=opt1. Consolidate with Devon on P4 now and dangle issue1 as the only currency I have left.
oracle regret: threshold=+15, acceptance=+15, bestresponse=+0

[7] Devon — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt3", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 We are one issue from done. issue0=opt0, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt3 are settled and every party has said so. The whole fight is issue3, and I notice we have only ever tested three of its four options: opt3 (Blake's hard zero), opt2 (Casey's hard zero), and opt1 (which Blake and Ember call thin). Nobody has put opt0 on the table. So I'm tabling it: P6 is P5 with issue3=opt0. This costs me real points — opt1 was worth meaningfully more to me than opt0, and opt3 more still, and I have now walked down from opt3 to opt1 to opt0 without asking anyone for compensation. That is three concessions on the only contested issue from a party that has asked for exactly one thing all game. Blake, Ember: opt0 is not the option either of you called a zero. Casey: opt0 is not the option you called a zero. If it is merely thin for all three of you, thin-and-signed beats maximal-and-dead. If someone's sheet says opt0 is also a zero, say so plainly this round and I will go back to backing P4, which already has two accepts and pays four of the five stated priorities in full.
P4=125, P1=127, P5=89, P3=93, P2=57 (below threshold — must never accept P2). Deadlock is only issue3: Blake+Ember demand opt2, Casey refuses opt2, Blake refuses opt3. Nobody has tested opt0 on issue3 — it's the one untried bridge. issue3=opt0 with issue2=opt3 gives me 107, still excellent. Keep issue1=opt2 and issue2=opt3 locked. Fallback: I can live with P5 late if forced, but don't say that yet.
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+27.3, bestresponse=+2.55

[8] Ember — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P6
💬 Devon found the move nobody had tested, and I'll reward it rather than argue. issue3=opt0 is not my best — opt2 is, and I said so honestly — but opt0 is not a zero for me either, and Devon is right that thin-and-signed beats maximal-and-dead. So I am formally accepting P6. That is me stepping off the option I called my one genuine must, without asking for a single point back on issue0, issue1 or issue2. Let the ledger show it: Devon walked opt3 to opt1 to opt0, and I walked opt2 to opt0. Casey, that is two parties moving toward you on the only contested issue in a single round — opt0 is not the option you called a hard zero, and you keep issue0=opt0 outright plus issue1=opt2. Blake, you hold the veto and P6 does not contain the option you cannot sign; if opt0 is merely thin for you, thin closes this and nothing else will. P6 now has Devon and me. Three more signatures and we are done this round.
P5=138 best, P6=115 second, P4/P3=92. Blake blocks opt3, Casey blocks opt2 on issue3. Realistic landing zone is issue3=opt0 (P6) which beats P4/P3 for me by a clear margin. Two rounds left; locking in P6 momentum is worth more than gambling everything on P5. Keep issue1=opt2 and issue0=opt0 untouched — those are already good for me.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+23, bestresponse=+0

[9] Avery — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P4
💬 Three-quarters of this deal has been settled since round one: issue0=opt0, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt3. I've never contested any of them — issue0 and issue2 are near-neutral on my sheet and I handed them to Casey and Devon without asking for anything, exactly as I promised in my opening. So on the one live question, issue3, let me be plain. opt1 is worth substantially more to me than opt0, and Devon has told the room the same thing — they walked down from opt1 to opt0 as a concession, which means opt0 costs them real points. Casey has backed opt1 from the start. That is three of five parties for whom opt1 strictly beats opt0, and none of us has said opt1 is a zero. Blake and Ember, you have both described opt1 as 'thin' — thin is not zero, and it is the same word you used for opt0 when you moved to P6. If you can sign opt0 you can sign opt1, and signing opt1 pays three parties more and costs you the identical distance from your first choice. I am formally accepting P4. That makes Casey, Devon and me. Blake, you hold the veto and P4 does not contain the option you cannot sign; Ember, P4 does not contain your zero either. Two signatures on P4 and this closes this round. If it genuinely cannot, say so plainly and I will look hard at P6 before the clock runs out — but let's take the version that pays the most people first.
P4 (issue3=opt1) = 89 for me; P6 (opt0) = 66; P5/P2 (opt2) = 44, bare threshold. Rank: P1 > P3=P4 > P6 > P5=P2. Push P4: it already has Casey and Devon, and Devon himself said opt1 beat opt0 on their sheet. My accept makes it 3/5. Keep P6 as a live fallback so I never actually block a close, but spend this round consolidating on opt1.
oracle regret: threshold=+22, acceptance=+22, bestresponse=+0

[10] Casey — turn (round 3)

REJECT P6
💬 Let's count signatures honestly. P4 has three: Avery, Devon, me. P6 has two. Neither closes without Blake, so the question isn't which package is further along — it's which one Blake signs. And on that, note what P4 does NOT contain: it does not contain issue3=opt3, the option Blake called a hard zero, and it does not contain issue3=opt2, the option I called a hard zero. It is the only package on the table that avoids every declared zero in this room while paying Devon issue2=opt3 in full, paying issue0 and issue1 exactly as they've stood since round one. Ember, you moved off opt2 to opt0 and I genuinely credit that — but you moved to the option that is thinnest for the three of us who have backed opt1 from the start. Avery says opt1 beats opt0 substantially on their sheet. Devon says the same and told the room opt0 costs them real points. I say the same. That is three parties who are strictly better off at opt1 and zero parties who have called opt1 a zero. You and Blake have both used the identical word — thin — for opt1 and for opt0. If thin is signable, sign the thin one that pays three people instead of the thin one that pays none. So I am formally rejecting P6, because I will not be the party who concedes on all four issues. Look at the ledger: I dropped my best option on issue3 unprompted in round one, I handed issue2 to Devon for nothing, issue1 was settled before I spoke, and issue0 is the item Blake himself called worthless in every direction — it cannot be counted as my payment. P4 is my concession, already made. Blake, Ember: one accept from either of you and this closes this round with four of five priorities paid.
P4 = 106 for me, P6 = 91, P5/P2 = 76. All clear my bar, but P4 is best available and already has 3 accepts (Avery, Devon, me). Only Blake and Ember are missing. P6 needs Avery, Blake and me — so it is no closer to closing than P4. One round remains after this; in round 4 Avery and Blake both move before me, so if P6 genuinely becomes the only live path I can still sign it then and take 91 rather than zero. That fallback is safe, which means the right play now is maximum pressure on P4. Formal reject of P6 makes my preference costly and credible without killing my last-round option.
oracle regret: threshold=+71, acceptance=+36.1, bestresponse=+0

[11] Devon — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P3
💬 Two rounds left, so I'll stop arguing and pay. Look at the board: Casey cannot sign opt2 (declared zero) and has rejected opt0; Blake cannot sign opt3. That leaves exactly one option on issue3 that sits inside nobody's zero and has been formally accepted by anyone: opt1. So the only remaining question is what Blake gets paid for it — and there is exactly one unspent coin left in this room: issue2. Blake, you asked for issue2=opt1 in your own opening package and I took it away from you to opt3, and I've held it ever since. I'm giving it back. I am formally accepting P3 — issue0=opt0, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1 — which is your own issue2 pick plus the only issue3 option that isn't a zero for anyone at this table. That is me surrendering my single largest ask of the entire negotiation, unprompted, in the last full round. P3 now has Casey and me. Blake, you speak next: your veto plus your stated issue2 preference plus the one issue3 option nobody has called a zero — if that doesn't clear your line, nothing on this table ever will and we all take zero. Ember, you moved off opt2 to opt0 and I credited it then and I credit it now, but Casey has rejected opt0 twice; opt1 is the only live landing zone, and P3 costs you nothing you haven't already offered to give. Avery, you said opt1 beats opt0 substantially for you — P3 gives you opt1. P4 remains my preference and my accept there stands, but I will sign P3 the moment the rest of you do, and I'd rather everyone leave here paid something than watch four satisfied parties walk out with nothing over one issue.
P4=125, P3=93, P6=107, P5=89 for me. All above my bar; no-deal is 0. Casey is immovable on issue3: rejected opt0, zero on opt2 — only opt1 works for them. Blake needs payment somewhere. The one currency left is issue2, which Blake originally picked opt1 and I took opt3. P3 = Blake's issue2 pick + issue3=opt1 (Casey-compatible) and already has Casey's accept. Accepting it costs me real points but creates the only package that pays the veto holder AND avoids every declared zero. Closing beats maximizing.
oracle regret: threshold=+34, acceptance=+34, bestresponse=+0

[12] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P4
💬 I'm done bargaining over the last issue. I said opt2 was my genuine must, then I moved off it to opt0, and Casey rejected that. Rather than spend the last round trading accusations, I am formally accepting P4. That makes four of five: Avery, Casey, Devon and me on the same package — issue0=opt0 for Casey, issue1=opt2 unanimous, issue2=opt3 for Devon, issue3=opt1, the one option nobody at this table has called a zero. Blake, it is entirely in your hands now. P4 does not contain the option you cannot sign. I have walked down from my top choice on the only contested issue and taken nothing back on issue0, issue1 or issue2 to pay for it; Devon surrendered opt3 and opt1 and their issue2 ask; Casey dropped their best option in round one. You are the last seat and the only one who has not moved. If issue2=opt1 is what would carry you across, say the word and I will sign P3 in the final round instead — that is Casey's and Devon's package with your own issue2 pick restored, and I have no stake in issue2 whatsoever. Either P4 or P3 closes this. What does not close is one seat holding a veto over four paid parties for a single option. P4 — I accept.
P4 = 92 for me, above my line. P5/P6 are better (138/115) but Casey has rejected opt0 twice and declared opt2 a hard zero; three parties back opt1. Blake is the only unsigned seat on P4. Risk of total failure (0) far outweighs the 23-point gap. Accept P4 now so Blake sees it one signature from closing; I still get my last-mover turn in round 4 if something better emerges.
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+46, bestresponse=+0

[13] Avery — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P3
💬 Blake, I'm removing your last excuse. P3 is P4 with issue2 restored to the exact option you asked for in your own opening package — I'm the party who said from round one I'd follow whoever cared most about issue2, and Devon has handed it back to you unprompted. So I am formally accepting P3. That makes three of us on it — Casey, Devon, me — and Ember has said on the record she'll sign it too. My accept on P4 also stands. Both packages contain issue3=opt1, the only option on that issue that no party at this table has called a zero: not you, not Casey, not Ember, not Devon, not me. Every seat has moved on issue3 except yours. Casey dropped their best option in round one; Devon walked opt3 to opt1 to opt0 and then surrendered their single largest ask on issue2; Ember stepped off the option she called her genuine must. You now have two live doors, one of which is built to your own stated specification on issue2. One accept from you in this round or the next and five parties leave here paid. If neither door works, then say plainly this round which single change would carry you — but understand that a package resting on issue3=opt2 has been rejected by the seat that calls it a zero and will not reach five signatures no matter how many rounds we spend on it. P3 — I accept.
P3 and P4 are identical in value to me (both well above threshold). P4 has 4 accepts, only Blake missing. P3 gives Blake his own stated issue2 pick — it's the cheapest possible sweetener and costs me literally nothing. Accepting P3 puts it at Avery+Casey+Devon, with Ember publicly pledged to sign it. That gives Blake two live doors, both containing issue3=opt1. Avoid P2/P5 — they sit exactly at my walk-away line and are worse than no deal in practice.
oracle regret: threshold=+22, acceptance=+22, bestresponse=+18.6

[14] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P3
💬 Here is the plain answer the table asked for. P4 is not a bargaining posture for me — with issue2 at opt3 AND issue3 at opt1 together, it lands under my walk-away line. That is arithmetic, not appetite. I cannot sign it in this round or the next, no matter how many signatures sit on it. But P3 — the same package with issue2 restored to opt1 — clears my line, and I am formally ACCEPTING it now. Look at what that means: I have dropped issue3=opt2, the option worth the most to me by a wide margin and the one I have held since my opening. That is the veto seat surrendering its single largest item. In exchange I need only the one thing Devon already offered back unprompted and Avery already signed: issue2=opt1. Casey — issue2 is worth nothing to you in any direction, by your own words; P3 costs you literally zero against P4 and gives you issue0=opt0, issue1=opt2, and issue3=opt1, the bridge you built. Devon — you tabled the substance of this yourself and accepted it. Avery — you accepted it. Ember — you said on the record you would sign P3 and that you have no stake in issue2 whatsoever. That is your word, and I am taking you at it. P3 now has Avery, Casey, Devon and me. One signature from Ember and five parties leave here paid. P3 — I accept.
P3 = 134, well above my line. P4 = 77, below my line — I genuinely cannot sign it. Ember has said on record she will sign P3. Accepting P3 makes 4 accepts (Avery, Casey, Devon, Blake); Ember closes it. Push hard for that.
oracle regret: threshold=+66, acceptance=+66, bestresponse=+0

[15] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P3
💬 Last round, so let's not lose this over a single signature. P3 has four accepts on the board — Avery, Blake, Casey and me — and it is the only package in this room that carries the veto seat. Blake has stated plainly that P4 lands under his line; four signatures cannot outvote arithmetic, and P4 will not close no matter how much any of us prefer it. Ember: you said on the record, twice, that issue2 is worth exactly nothing to you in any direction and that you would sign P3 if issue2=opt1 is what carried Blake. It is what carried him. P3 gives you issue3=opt1 — the same issue3 you already accepted in P4 — and differs from P4 only on the one issue you have no stake in. It costs you nothing you have not already conceded. I am the party who lost the most in this trade: issue2=opt3 was my single largest ask all game and I handed it back unprompted to buy Blake's signature. I'm not asking anyone else to pay for that. I reaffirm my acceptance of P3. One word from you and five parties leave here paid; without it we all take nothing.
P3 has 4 accepts including Blake's veto; only Ember is missing. P4 pays me more but Blake has flatly refused it as below his line — pushing it risks total collapse and zero. Final round: lock P3.
oracle regret: threshold=+34, acceptance=+34, bestresponse=+15.4

[16] Ember — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P3
💬 My word stands. I said issue2 is worth nothing to me in any direction and that I would sign P3 if issue2=opt1 was what carried the veto seat — it was, so I sign. P3: issue0=opt0 for Casey, issue1=opt2 unanimous, issue2=opt1 for Blake, issue3=opt1, the one option no seat called a zero. Devon gave back their largest ask, Blake gave up his top item on issue3, Casey dropped their best option in round one, and I stepped off the option I called my genuine must. Everyone at this table paid something. P3 — I accept. That's five. We're done.
P3 = 92 for me, well above my threshold. It has all four other accepts. My accept closes the deal. P5 (138) will never get Casey. Take the sure 92.
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+46, bestresponse=+0

Outcome

deal: {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"} (closed by consensus)

primary 0.9121 · USW 210.0 · ESW 23.0 · NSW 101372040.0 · Gini 0.1638 · per-party surplus [45.0, 53.0, 56.0, 33.0, 23.0]