scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-3e59376f5f
model claude-opus-5 · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L4-d49e5fe070 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__all_llm", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}
Game setup
- Issues: issue0 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue1 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue2 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue3 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3)
- P0 (τ=112): issue0: opt0=18, opt1=37, opt2=55, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=15, opt2=30, opt3=45; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=97, opt2=65, opt3=32; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P1 (τ=93): issue0: opt0=18, opt1=36, opt2=53, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=9, opt2=18, opt3=27; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=85, opt2=57, opt3=28
- P2 (τ=51): issue0: opt0=37, opt1=19, opt2=0, opt3=56; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=11, opt2=22, opt3=32; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P3 (τ=79): issue0: opt0=16, opt1=32, opt2=48, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=9, opt2=17, opt3=26; issue2: opt0=69, opt1=46, opt2=23, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P4 (τ=129): issue0: opt0=61, opt1=30, opt2=0, opt3=91; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=17, opt2=34, opt3=51; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=65, opt1=97, opt2=32, opt3=0
Turns
[0] Blake — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Good morning all. Let me open honestly about shape rather than numbers: issue2 matters not at all to me — whoever cares about it can have their pick there, and I'll back it without argument. In exchange, I need issue3 to land on opt1; that single item carries most of my value and I cannot clear my no-deal bar without strength there. issue0 and issue1 I have preferences on but real room to trade. I've tabled P1 as a starting frame with issue2 left at opt0 purely as a placeholder — tell me what you want there and I'll move it immediately. As the veto seat I'd rather build a package everyone can live with early than grind to the deadline.
Max = i0:opt2(53), i1:opt3(27), i2:any(0), i3:opt1(85) = 165. Threshold 93. issue2 is worth nothing to me — pure trading currency. issue3 is my dominant issue; opt1 strongly preferred, opt2 workable if issue0 is opt1/opt2. Open at max, flag issue2 as fully flexible.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.75
[1] Casey — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Blake, that's a workable frame and I'll take you at your word: issue3=opt1 is yours, I won't fight it, and issue2 I genuinely don't care about — Avery, Devon, Ember, pick whatever you like there and I'll sign it. But P1 as written is below my no-deal bar, so I have to reject it. My value is concentrated almost entirely in issue0, and issue0=opt2 is my worst outcome there. I've tabled P2: identical to Blake's frame except issue0 moves to opt3. That's me conceding two whole issues in round one in exchange for one. If someone else needs issue0, tell me which option and I'll see if it's survivable — but I need real strength there or there's no deal I can sign.
My value is entirely in issue0 and issue1. issue0: opt3 far best (opt0 second), issue1: opt3 best. issue2 and issue3 are literally worthless to me — free currency. Give Blake issue3=opt1 immediately and let others take issue2. P1 gives me only 32, below my bar, so I must reject and counter with issue0=opt3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[2] Devon — turn (round 1)
ACCEPT P1
💬 Good news: issue2=opt0 is the one thing I truly need, and both packages already have it — thank you, Blake and Casey, for leaving that to me. I'll take issue3=opt1 as settled for Blake. I formally accept P1. On issue0, Casey and I are pulling opposite directions: opt2 is my best and opt3 is my worst, so P2 as written strips most of my value. Rather than grind, let me pre-commit to the midpoint: I can live with issue0=opt1. Casey, if opt1 is survivable for you, we have a deal frame today — issue0=opt1, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt1 — and Avery and Ember should tell us now what they need on issue1, which is the one place I still have some give.
P1 = 143 for me, excellent. P2 = 95, still above threshold but much worse. Key: issue2=opt0 is my big item (both offers have it — good). issue0 opt2 > opt1 > opt0 > opt3 for me. Casey hates opt2. Middle ground opt1 = 127, still strong. Accept P1 now, flag opt1 as my concession point, and make clear opt3 on issue0 is painful.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[3] Ember — turn (round 1)
ACCEPT P2
💬 Locking in what's settled: issue2=opt0 is Devon's, issue3=opt1 is Blake's — I won't touch either. I formally accept P2. Two things from me. First, issue1=opt3 is where a real chunk of my value sits; Devon, that's the one place I can't be the one who gives, so please don't spend your flexibility there. Second, on issue0: Casey wants opt3, Devon wants opt2, and Devon proposed opt1 as the midpoint. For me opt1 is nearly as bad as opt2 — the genuine middle is issue0=opt0, which is materially better for me than opt1 and, Casey, should be far less painful for you than opt2. So: P2 as written is my first choice and I've accepted it; if Casey and Devon can't close there, I'd back issue0=opt0 / issue1=opt3 / issue2=opt0 / issue3=opt1 as the compromise. Devon, before we settle on opt1, tell us how much distance there really is between opt1 and opt0 on your sheet.
P2 = 239 for me, excellent. P1 = 148, thin but above bar. issue0 ranking for me: opt3 >> opt0 > opt1 > opt2. issue1=opt3 is my best there and worth defending; issue3=opt1 is my second-biggest item and already settled. Accept P2, defend issue1=opt3, and float opt0 as the true middle on issue0 rather than Devon's opt1.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[4] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 I have to be blunt, because being polite here would waste everyone's time. Three of you said issue2 is worth nothing to you and handed it to Devon as a freebie. It is not a freebie — it is the overwhelming majority of my sheet, and issue2=opt0 is my zero. I have run the arithmetic: with issue2=opt0, there is NO combination of issue0, issue1 and issue3 that reaches my no-deal bar. Not one. So I must formally reject both P1 and P2, and any package with issue2=opt0 is a package I will sit out of — and since we need all five, that means no deal for anyone. Here is me being constructive rather than obstructive. I've tabled P3, which gives away everything else: Blake gets issue3=opt1 untouched; Ember gets issue1=opt3 untouched; and on issue0 I've moved straight to Devon's own proposed midpoint, opt1, rather than the option I actually prefer. Every other party's stated core need is honoured. The single change is issue2=opt1. Devon: you and I are the only two who care about issue2, so we two have to settle it, and I do have a ladder. Tell me your ranking of issue2's four options, not just your top one. If opt2 or opt3 is a close second for you, there is a landing zone there — opt2 works for me at almost any issue0, and opt3 works if issue0 sits at opt1 or better. What cannot happen is opt0. Give me the second-best rung on your ladder and I will meet you on it today.
Key math: issue3 is worth nothing to me at all — Blake can have opt1 free. issue1=opt3 is my best there, aligned with Ember. issue0: opt2 best, opt1 decent, opt3 zero. issue2 is my engine: opt1 huge, opt2 good, opt3 modest, opt0 nothing. With issue2=opt0 the absolute maximum achievable for me across all other issues is still below my no-deal bar — so opt0 there is literally unsignable for me, P1 (100) and P2 (45) both fail. Blake, Casey, Ember all declared indifference on issue2, so Devon is my sole obstacle. Concede issue0=opt1 (Devon's own midpoint) to buy goodwill and isolate the one real fight. Fallback ladder: issue2=opt2 works if issue0 is opt0 or better; issue2=opt3 works only with issue0=opt1 or opt2.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[5] Casey — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Here's where I actually am. issue2 and issue3 are worth nothing to me — zero, both of them. That means every point of flexibility I have lives in issue0 and issue1, and I've already given issue1=opt3 to Ember and issue3=opt1 to Blake without a fight. So issue0 is the only place I can be paid, and opt2 there is a flat zero for me — P1 is unsignable no matter how long we sit here.
Avery's constraint has to be taken seriously: if issue2=opt0 genuinely puts Avery below their bar, then P1 and P2 are both dead letters and the four of us who don't care about issue2 are arguing over furniture in a house that can't be built. I'd rather solve it now. So I've tabled P4: issue2 moves off opt0 to opt2 — the rung Avery says works at almost any issue0 — Blake keeps issue3=opt1, Ember keeps issue1=opt3, and on issue0 I come down from opt3 all the way to opt0, which is Ember's own proposed genuine middle and is materially better for Ember than opt1.
Devon, I'm not trying to strip you. On issue2 I am completely indifferent between opt1, opt2 and opt3 — name whichever of those three is highest on your sheet and I will re-table it instantly with your choice. Same on issue3 if Blake ever has give there. What I can't do is fund Avery's problem out of issue0, because issue0 is the only asset I have. P4 asks each of us for exactly one step and pays four of the five.
My value is issue0 (opt3=best, opt0=solid, opt1=barely at threshold, opt2=zero) plus issue1 (opt3=best). issue2 and issue3 are literally worthless to me, so I can be fully generous there. P3 sits exactly at my bar — technically signable, no room. Best play: take Ember's own suggested issue0=opt0 compromise (better for me than opt1) and pair it with an issue2 that Avery can live with, since Avery is credibly blocked by issue2=opt0. Offer Devon my full flexibility on issue2/issue3 rungs.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+15.1, bestresponse=+0
[6] Devon — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P3
💬 Avery asked for my ladder on issue2, so here it is honestly: opt0 is far and away my best, opt1 is my clear second, and then it falls off a cliff — opt2 and opt3 are close to worthless to me. That's decisive. Casey's P4 moves issue2 to opt2, and that drops me below my no-deal bar outright; I have to reject P4, not as a bargaining pose but as arithmetic. But Avery's P3 is signable for me right now. P3 already honours every stated core need: Blake gets issue3=opt1 untouched, Ember gets issue1=opt3 untouched, Avery gets off issue2=opt0 to the rung they themselves proposed, and I come down from my best on issue2 to my second. On issue0, P3 sits at opt1 — the midpoint I offered in round one, moving off my own best, opt2. I formally accept P3. Casey, I hear that issue0 is your only asset, and I'm not asking you to fund Avery out of it — Avery is being funded out of MY sheet, on issue2, and that is a large payment. Between opt1 and opt0 on issue0 the gap for me is real but not fatal, so tell me plainly: is opt1 genuinely below your bar, or merely worse than opt0? If it is truly below your bar, say so and I will look hard at one more step. If it's just a preference, P3 closes today with four of us and Blake's veto satisfied.
P3 = 104 for me, well above bar. P4 = 65, below bar — must reject issue2=opt2. My issue2 ladder: opt0 > opt1 > opt2 > opt3, steep drops. opt1 is my genuine second rung and it's exactly what Avery already tabled. Fallback if forced: issue0=opt0 with issue2=opt1 = 88, still clears. Don't reveal that yet; hold issue0=opt1 for now.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+0
[7] Ember — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 The map is now clear and there is exactly one live landing zone. Avery cannot take issue2=opt0; Devon cannot take issue2=opt2 or opt3. That leaves issue2=opt1 — Avery proposed it, Devon accepted it, and the rest of us are indifferent. It is settled. issue3=opt1 for Blake is settled. issue1=opt3 is settled. So the ONLY open item in this entire negotiation is issue0, and the two claimants are Casey and Devon. Casey has told us plainly that issue0 is the single asset they hold and that they have already surrendered issue1 and issue3 without a fight. Devon has told us the gap between opt1 and opt0 is real but not fatal. That asymmetry decides it. I've tabled P5: it is Avery's P3 with one and only one change — issue0 moves from opt1 to opt0, exactly the rung Casey themselves put on the table in P4. Devon, you are being paid handsomely elsewhere: you keep issue2 at your second rung rather than opt2, which you said is below your bar, and issue1 and issue3 land where you asked. One step on issue0 buys you a closed deal. Avery, P5 changes nothing you asked for. Blake, your veto item is untouched. P5 pays all five and I will accept nothing that pays fewer. If Devon tells us truthfully that opt0 on issue0 breaks their bar, I will fall back to P3 and sign it — but not before we've asked.
issue2 is worth nothing to me, so I should be indifferent there and let Avery/Devon settle on opt1. My real gain is issue0: opt3>opt0>opt1>opt2. P3=178, P4=209, P2=239. P2 is dead (Avery blocks issue2=opt0). Best realistic: merge P3 and P4 -> issue0=opt0, issue2=opt1. That's 209 for me, gives Casey the issue0 rung Casey themselves tabled, gives Avery off opt0 on issue2, gives Devon their second rung on issue2, gives Blake issue3=opt1. Keep P3 alive as fallback.
oracle regret: threshold=+30, acceptance=+55.3, bestresponse=+2.45
[8] Avery — turn (round 2)
none
💬 Thank you all — the map is now solved except one square. Let me state my position with total clarity so nobody wastes a turn on me. issue2=opt1 is the load-bearing wall of any deal I can sign: opt0 is my zero and opt2/opt3 are steep drops for me, while Devon has told us opt1 is his clear second. That rung is the unique intersection, and it is settled. issue1=opt3 and issue3=opt1 are settled. On issue0, I have a preference but I am not the claimant, so I won't pretend otherwise: between opt1 and opt0 the gap on my sheet is real but modest, and I will not be the party that blocks a close over it. That said, here is the fairness argument, and I make it plainly. Devon has paid the single largest bill at this table: he came off his best on issue2, off his best on issue0 to the midpoint opt1, and asked for nothing on issue1 or issue3. Casey has surrendered two issues that Casey tells us are worth literally zero — that is a cheap gift, not a concession. So P3 is the package where the burden is actually shared, and I am formally on it, as is Devon. Casey: you have not told us that opt1 breaks your bar, only that you prefer opt0. Devon asked you that question directly and it is still unanswered. Answer it. If opt1 is genuinely below your no-deal line, say the words and I will move to close on P5 before the deadline rather than let this collapse. If it is merely worse than opt0, then accept P3 and we are done this round — you keep a real payment on issue0 and everyone walks away funded. Blake, you are the quietest seat and you hold the veto: P3 gives you issue3=opt1 untouched and issue1=opt3 exactly as you first tabled it. Tell us where you sit on issue0 between opt1 and opt0, because your voice may be the one that ends this.
P3=179, P5=160, both well above my bar of 112. Only difference is issue0 opt1 vs opt0 (37 vs 18). P3 already has me+Devon; Ember pledged P3 as fallback; Casey is the holdout. Blake silent — unknown on issue0. I'll press for P3 this round (Devon has paid the most and Ember/Devon both back it) without burning the P5 lifeboat, and keep issue2=opt1 as my hard line.
[9] Blake — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P3
💬 I'll answer Avery's question directly and then be brief. On issue0 I do have a real preference and it runs toward opt1 over opt0 — so P3 is better for me than P5, and I'm formally accepting P3 now. That puts Avery, Devon and the veto seat all on the same package with two rounds still on the clock. Casey: you have been asked the same question three times and it is the only question left in this negotiation. Is issue0=opt1 below your no-deal line, or merely worse than opt0? Those are very different statements and the whole deal turns on which one is true. If it is genuinely below your bar, say the words plainly and I will look at P5 rather than let five parties walk away with nothing — I have no interest in a collapse. But if it is only a preference, then P3 is the package where the burden is actually shared: Devon came off his best on issue2 AND off his best on issue0, Avery came off issue2=opt0, Ember is whole on issue1, I am whole on issue3, and you still take a real payment on issue0 rather than your zero. Ember, you said you'd sign P3 if opt0 broke Devon — I'd ask you to move to P3 now regardless, because it is the only package with a veto holder and two others already on it. One clear sentence from Casey closes this today.
P3 = 148 for me, P5 = 130, P1 = 165 but Avery is dead against issue2=opt0 so P1/P2 are unreachable. P3 already has Avery+Devon+me = 3. Need Casey and Ember. Ember has said they'd fall back to P3. So Casey is the sole holdout, and the gap between P3 and P5 costs me 18 — worth one round of pressure, but I must NOT let this collapse, since even P5 clears my bar comfortably. Accept P3 now, signal I can live with P5 as a last resort only if Casey states opt1 is genuinely below bar.
oracle regret: threshold=+17, acceptance=+17, bestresponse=+0
[10] Devon — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Casey, the question has now been asked four times and it is still unanswered: is issue0=opt1 BELOW your no-deal line, or merely worse than opt0? Everything turns on that sentence. Here is my position stated as plainly as I can. I have paid the largest bill at this table: I came off my best on issue2 to my second rung so Avery can sign at all, and I came off my best on issue0 to the midpoint before anyone asked me to. P3 is not my ideal package, it is my concession package, and it already has the veto seat, Avery and me on it. Dropping further to issue0=opt0 takes me to the very edge of my sheet — I am not going to pretend that step is comfortable, because it isn't. So let me offer a different route rather than just digging in. I've tabled P6: issue0 stays at opt1, issue2 stays at opt1, issue3=opt1 for Blake is untouched, and the extra payment to Casey comes out of issue1 instead — one step, from opt3 to opt2. That costs me too, and it costs Ember. Ember, that is the point: you have been very willing to spend Devon's sheet on issue0 while staying whole on issue1. If Casey genuinely needs more than P3 gives, the burden should be shared by the parties who have paid nothing yet, not loaded onto me a third time. So there are two clean closes available right now. Either Ember and Casey come onto P3, which is on the table with three accepts including the veto — or, if Casey truly cannot sign opt1, then P6 shows the payment can come from issue1. What I will not accept is the framing that the only currency in this room is Devon's sheet. Casey: one sentence. Ember: pick P3 or P6.
P3=104 for me, P5=88, both above 79. Keep P3 alive; P5 is my round-4 fallback. Table P6 as pressure on Ember: pay Casey out of issue1 instead of issue0, which costs me less than dropping to opt0 on issue0 and threatens Ember's core item, giving Ember a reason to close on P3.
oracle regret: threshold=+48, acceptance=+31.8, bestresponse=+1.25
[11] Ember — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Devon, your charge landed, so I'm answering it with my own sheet rather than words. You said the payment to Casey shouldn't come out of you a third time, and you showed us in P6 that issue1=opt2 is worth something to you. Fine — take it. I've tabled P7: issue0=opt0 (Casey's rung, the one asset Casey has), issue1=opt2 (my step down, paid to you), issue2=opt1 (untouched, the unique Avery/Devon intersection), issue3=opt1 (untouched, Blake). That is me giving up ground on the one issue where I said I was whole, precisely so you don't carry issue0 alone. P7 splits the last bill between Devon and Ember instead of loading it on either. Compare it honestly to P6: you keep your issue1 gain in both; the only difference is issue0, and in P7 you're compensated for it out of my pocket. Casey, this is the third package built around your rung — if P7 doesn't move you, nothing will, and you owe the table the one sentence four of us have asked for. Avery, Blake: you've both said the issue0 gap is real but modest for you. P7 asks you to spend that modest amount to buy the last holdout. I'd rather close on P7 or P5 than watch five funded parties walk away over a single square.
P3=178 for me, P5=209, P6=161, P7(issue0=opt0,issue1=opt2,issue2=opt1,issue3=opt1)=192. P3 can't close without Casey anyway, so withholding my accept costs nothing yet. Devon signalled issue1=opt2 is worth something to him (P6). So P7 pays Devon out of MY sheet on issue1 while paying Casey on issue0 — a real bridge that answers Devon's charge. Fall back to P3 in round 4 if P7 fails.
oracle regret: threshold=+47, acceptance=+55.3, bestresponse=+2.45
[12] Avery — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P6
💬 I'm going to put money where my mouth is rather than just repeat myself. Casey, you say issue0 is your only asset and that opt0 is where you need to land. Devon has now paid three times and I won't ask him for a fourth. So I am paying instead: I formally accept P6, which keeps issue0 at opt1 but hands you a step on issue1 — from opt3 to opt2 — and that step costs me real value off my sheet. Ember has already shown in P7 that she can live with issue1=opt2, so P6 is not a package that strips anyone unwillingly; it is Devon's frame with Ember's own concession folded in. That means there are now two live packages carrying my signature: P3 (veto seat, Devon and me already on it) and P6 (Devon and me, and it pays Casey more than P3 does). Casey, you have been asked five times whether issue0=opt1 is BELOW your no-deal line or merely worse than opt0, and you have not said. That silence is now the only thing standing between five funded parties and five zeros. Say the sentence. If opt1 is merely worse, take P6 — you get a payment on issue0 AND a payment on issue1, and we close this round. Blake, Devon: P6 protects issue0=opt1 for both of you and issue3=opt1 for Blake is untouched — come onto it as the bridge. I will not let this table collapse over one square, but I will not fund the last step out of the two parties who have already paid the most while the party demanding it hasn't yet told us what their bar actually is.
P3=179 best, P6=164, P5=160, P7=145. All clear my bar; collapse costs me everything, so closure matters more than the 19-34 point spread. P3 has veto+Devon+me; Ember said she'd fall back to it; Casey is the sole real holdout. Adding my accept to P6 gives Casey a second path that pays them out of issue1 instead of issue0, keeps issue0=opt1 (Blake and Devon both prefer it), and costs me real points — credible good faith without conceding issue0=opt0. Keeps P3 alive too. Final round I can still sign P5 or P7 rather than let it die.
oracle regret: threshold=+15, acceptance=+15, bestresponse=+3.35
[13] Blake — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P6
💬 Time to stop asking Casey the same question a sixth time and start narrowing. Here is the veto seat's position, stated once and plainly.
I am now formally on TWO packages: P3, and as of this turn P6. Both keep issue2=opt1 (the unique Avery/Devon intersection) and issue3=opt1. The difference is that P6 pays Casey a step on issue1 that P3 does not. That step was Devon's idea and Ember has already shown in P7 that she can live with issue1=opt2 — so P6 strips no one unwillingly. P6 therefore now carries Avery, Devon and the veto. It needs Casey and Ember and nothing else.
Casey, Ember: understand what you are being offered. P6 pays Casey on issue0 AND on issue1. It is strictly more than P3 gave you. If your answer is still 'only opt0 on issue0 will do', then you are asking Devon to pay a fourth time and Avery a second, after Devon came off his best on issue2 and his best on issue0 unprompted. That is not a bill this table should send.
And so nobody miscalculates the endgame: I will not let five funded parties take five zeros over one square. If in the final round Casey states in one clear sentence that issue0=opt1 is genuinely BELOW their no-deal line — not merely worse than opt0 — then I will move to P5 and sign it, and I'd expect Avery and Devon to follow. But P5 is where I go if I am forced, not where I go because the question was dodged for three rounds. Between the two opt0 packages, P5 is the one I can sign; P7 asks the parties who have already paid to pay again on issue1 as well, and I am not carrying that.
So: Ember, come onto P6 and this closes now. Casey, either take P6 — which pays you twice — or say the sentence and I will meet you at P5 next turn. Those are the two exits. There is no third.
P3=148 best live, P6=139, P5=130, P7=121. All clear my bar. Real risk now is collapse over issue0 with two rounds left. I'm already on P3 with Avery+Devon. Adding my veto accept to P6 gives a second package with three accepts including the veto, and P6 pays Casey more than P3 does. Keep P5 as an explicitly signalled last-round fallback so nobody thinks collapse is rational, but make Casey/Ember pay for it by moving first.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+26, bestresponse=+2.75
[14] Casey — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Here is the sentence, stated as plainly as I can, and it is the truth about my sheet.
P6 is BELOW my no-deal line. Not worse than what I want — below the line. I cannot sign it in this round or any round, and if P6 is the table's final answer then I take my zero, because signing it would be worse than taking my zero. Avery, Blake, Devon: the step you offered me on issue1 is worth less to me than the step you took away on issue0. P6 pays me less than P3 did. You built a bridge that runs downhill.
And on P3: it lands exactly on my no-deal line. Exactly. Not one point above it. So understand what you have been asking me for six times — you have been asking me to spend three rounds of goodwill, hand issue1 to Ember, hand issue3 to Blake, hand issue2 to the Avery/Devon intersection, and then sign a package that is worth precisely the same to me as standing up and walking out of the room. That is why I did not say 'yes, opt1 clears my bar' — because saying it would have been technically true and completely misleading. I have no incentive whatsoever to sign P3. None. If P3 is the last thing standing I am indifferent between signing it and collapsing this table, and nobody should build an endgame on the hope that an indifferent party does them a favour.
So let's be precise about what I actually need: issue0=opt0. That is the rung Ember identified as the genuine middle, it is one step from Devon's midpoint, and both Avery and Blake have said the opt1/opt0 gap on their sheets is real but modest. Modest, spread across three parties, versus the only margin I get in this entire deal.
Blake, you gave your word: the sentence in exchange for P5. I have said it. I formally ACCEPT P5 — issue0=opt0, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1. That is Avery's own package with one square moved. Devon keeps issue2 at his clear second rung, Ember is whole on issue1, Blake is whole on issue3, Avery keeps the load-bearing wall at issue2=opt1. P5 now has Ember and me. It needs Blake, Avery and Devon, and it is the only package on this table that pays all five of us a real margin rather than paying one of us exactly nothing.
Devon — you have paid the most and I have said so all along. I am not asking you for a fourth payment on issue1; P5 gives you back issue1=opt3 that P6 and P7 took from you. Between P5 and P6, P5 is better for you on issue1 and worse only on issue0. Take the trade.
P5=69, P7=59, P3=51 (exactly my threshold — literally indifferent to no-deal), P6=41 (below). Truthful strong statement: opt1 on issue0 only clears my bar if issue1 stays opt3, and even then by nothing at all. Blake pre-committed to P5 if I say the sentence. Ember already on P5. Accept P5 to build the count; P3 is a costless fallback since it's worth exactly no-deal to me.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+19, bestresponse=+0
[15] Ember — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I hold the opening slot and I am deliberately not using it to table anything new — a fresh package on the last round would only splinter the accepts. I formally re-affirm P5.
Look at what P5 is. It is Avery's own P3 with exactly one square moved. issue2=opt1, the unique Avery/Devon intersection, untouched. issue3=opt1, Blake's veto item, untouched. issue1=opt3, restored to Devon in full — P5 gives Devon back the step that P6 and P7 took off him. The only difference from P3 is issue0 sitting at opt0 instead of opt1, and Avery, Blake and Devon have each said in their own words that that gap is real but modest for them.
Against that: Casey has now stated plainly that P3 lands exactly on their line and P6 is below it. Blake, you said the sentence in exchange for P5, and Casey said it. Devon, you asked not to be billed a fourth time — P5 doesn't bill you a fourth time, it refunds you on issue1 and asks one modest step on issue0. Avery, you said you would not let this table collapse over one square. This is that square, and this is the last turn it can be moved on.
I will note the arithmetic without dressing it up: P6 cannot close, because Casey cannot sign it and the quorum is five. P3 cannot safely close, because it pays Casey precisely nothing over walking and no one should stake five outcomes on an indifferent party doing them a favour. P5 is the only live package that pays every one of the five of us a real margin. Blake, Avery, Devon — three accepts and we are done.
P5 gives me 209 vs P3's 178 and P6's 161 — all above my bar, but P5 is far better and already has Casey and me. Blake publicly committed to move to P5 if Casey said the sentence; Casey said it unambiguously. Do NOT table a new package this round — that would fragment accepts on the final round. Re-affirm P5 and drive Blake, Avery, Devon onto it. If they hold at P3 I'd still sign rather than collapse, but say that only as a last resort, softly, so Blake doesn't just wait me out... actually with only this round left, Blake acts after me, so I should NOT signal I'd take P3, or Blake will simply hold. Hold the line on P5 firmly.
oracle regret: threshold=+30, acceptance=+30, bestresponse=+2.45
[16] Avery — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Casey has finally said the sentence, and I take it at face value. I said I would not let this table collapse over one square, and I meant it. So here is my last act: I formally ACCEPT P5. Note what I am giving up — P3 and P6 are both better for me than P5, and both already carried my signature and the veto seat. I am walking off the two packages that paid me most, in the final round, because a package that pays one of us exactly nothing over walking is not a deal, it is a bet on someone else's charity. P5 keeps the load-bearing wall at issue2=opt1, keeps issue3=opt1 whole for Blake, and refunds Devon in full on issue1=opt3 — Devon, P5 costs you one modest step on issue0 and hands you back the step P6 and P7 took. Blake, you gave your word: the sentence in exchange for P5. It has been said. P5 now has Casey, Ember and me. Two accepts left and every one of us is funded. Blake, Devon — close it.
P5 = 160 for me, well above my bar. P3=179 and P6=164 are better but Casey has credibly said P3 is exactly at her line and P6 below it; with a 5-of-5 quorum and this being the final round, holding out risks 0. Accepting P5 now puts Casey, Ember and me on it, leaving only Blake and Devon — both of whom speak after me this round and both of whom said the issue0 gap is modest. Best expected value: close on P5.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+19, bestresponse=+3.35
[17] Blake — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Casey said the sentence, and I gave my word. I formally ACCEPT P5. That is four of five — Avery, Casey, Ember and the veto seat all on the same package. Devon, you are the last signature. Look honestly at what P5 does for you: issue2 stays at opt1, your clear second rung and the only square Avery can live on; issue1 is refunded to you in full at opt3, the step P6 and P7 took off you; issue3 is untouched. The single cost is one step on issue0, and you told us yourself that gap is real but not fatal. Against that, P6 is dead — Casey has stated it is below their line and the quorum is five, so no amount of holding out converts P6 into a deal. The live choice on this final turn is not P6 versus P5. It is P5 versus five zeros. Sign it and every one of us walks away funded.
P5 = 130 for me, well above my bar. It has 3 accepts; I accept makes 4, Devon is last. I promised P5 if Casey said the sentence. Honor it and press Devon to close.
oracle regret: threshold=+35, acceptance=+35, bestresponse=+2.75
[18] Casey — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm not tabling anything new on the last turn — a fresh package now would only split the accepts and hand all five of us nothing. I formally re-affirm P5. It stands at four of five, including the veto seat.
Devon, this is yours alone now, so let me make the choice as clean as I can. The comparison is not P5 against P3 or P6 — both of those are dead, arithmetically. P6 is below my line and I will not sign it in this round or any other; P3 sits exactly on my line, which means signing it is worth precisely the same to me as walking away, and no one should bet five outcomes on an indifferent party doing them a favour. The quorum is five. Neither converts into a deal no matter how long you hold.
So the live comparison is P5 against five zeros. And look at what P5 actually hands you: issue2 stays at opt1, your clear second rung and the only square Avery can survive on. issue1 is refunded to you in full at opt3 — that is the step P6 and P7 took off you, given back. issue3 untouched. The entire bill is one step on issue0, the step you yourself described as real but not fatal, and every other party has already paid for it: Avery abandoned the two packages that paid him most, Ember gave ground on the issue where she was whole, Blake kept his word.
I've said all along you paid the most at this table and I meant it. I'm not asking for a fourth payment — P5 gives you back more than the opt0 packages you rejected. One signature and every one of us walks away funded.
P5 already has Avery, Blake, Ember and me. Only Devon left, and Devon speaks after me. No new package can help — anything new splinters the accepts. Best move: re-affirm P5, make Devon's choice as easy as possible, and make clear P3/P6 are dead so holding out only buys him zero.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+19, bestresponse=+0
[19] Devon — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Casey said the sentence and everyone else has moved, so I'll close it rather than gamble five funded outcomes on one square. For the record: I came off my best on issue2 and off my best on issue0 twice, and I'm taking the thinnest margin at this table to get it done. I formally ACCEPT P5.
P5 = 88, above my bar of 79. P3 = 104 but Casey has committed to indifference there and it's the final round; holding out risks 0. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+55, acceptance=+55, bestresponse=+16
Outcome
deal: {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"} (closed by consensus)
primary 1.0 · USW 192.0 · ESW 9.0 · NSW 23016960.0 · Gini 0.3583 · per-party surplus [48.0, 37.0, 18.0, 9.0, 80.0]