scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-5874bdb58b

model claude-opus-5 · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L0-a483b0d80d · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__all_llm", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Good morning. Let me put a complete package up so we have something concrete to work from. Openly: issue2 is genuinely low-stakes for me — whoever cares about it most can have their pick there, and I'll back it. I have real weight on issue1 and issue3. Tell me where your pressure points are and I'll move on issue0 and issue2 immediately.
Max package: i0=opt2(32), i1=opt2(63), i2=any(0), i3=opt2(62) = 157. Threshold 63. Issue2 is worthless to me — pure giveaway chip. Issue1 opt2 and issue3 opt2 are my big items; issue0 is small.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.55

[1] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Thanks Avery — that's a useful starting frame, and I'll be equally open. Issue1 and issue2 carry no weight for me whatsoever; I will sign whatever the rest of you agree on there, and I mean that as a standing commitment, not a bargaining chip. My weight is concentrated almost entirely on issue0 and issue3. So here is P2: identical to Avery's package except issue3 moves to opt0. Casey, Devon, Ember — take issue1 and issue2 and shape them however you need; I'll back you. But I need issue0=opt2 and issue3=opt0 to be able to sign anything at all.
P1 = 51 for me, above threshold 40. But issue3=opt0 is worth a lot more to me. Counter with only one change from Avery's package: issue3 opt2->opt0. That keeps Avery's issue1 and issue2 picks intact. issue1 and issue2 are literally worthless to me, so I can trade them fully.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.75

[2] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Thank you both — that's exactly the kind of transparency that gets this closed fast. Taking you at your word: issue2 is my single biggest pressure point, by a wide margin. Issue1 is literally worthless to me, so Avery, keep issue1=opt2 with my blessing and I'll never contest it. P3 is Blake's P2 with one change only: issue2 moves to opt2. Blake's requirements on issue0 and issue3 are untouched, Avery's issue1 is untouched. If issue2 truly carries no weight for the two of you, this costs you nothing and buys my signature outright. Devon, Ember — if issue2=opt2 hurts you, say so now and tell me your number two there; otherwise let's lock the issue0/issue1/issue3 spine as it stands and spend the remaining rounds only on what you need.
P2 gives me 83 (above 71). But issue2 is where my real weight is, and both Avery and Blake just said issue2 is worthless to them. Take P2 and move issue2 to opt2: 26+0+87+57 = 170 for me. Keep issue0=opt2 and issue3=opt0 to hold Blake (veto), keep issue1=opt2 for Avery. This should be nearly free for everyone.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.5

[3] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Good — the spine is nearly right. Blake, your issue0=opt2 and issue3=opt0 are both fine by me and I'll defend them. Casey, issue2=opt2 costs me nothing, keep it. My one real pressure point is issue1, and opt2 there is close to the bottom of my list. P4 is Casey's P3 with issue1 moved to opt3 — nothing else touched. Avery, you said you have weight on issue1 and issue3; note that on issue3 you're already giving way to Blake's veto, so issue1 is where I need you to trade. If opt3 is genuinely bad for you, tell me your ranking on issue1 and I'll look at opt1 as a middle landing — but opt2 is the one place I can't just wave through.
P2/P3 both give me 114. Best realistic upgrade: issue1=opt3 adds a lot. Keep Blake's spine (issue0=opt2, issue3=opt0) and Casey's issue2=opt2 intact so I only contest one issue. Fallback: accept P3 later; also issue1=opt1 is a decent middle for me if Avery resists opt3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+7.05, bestresponse=+4.4

[4] Ember — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 I'll be as concrete as the rest of you. Good news first: issue0=opt2 is my top choice too, so Blake's core is safe with me, and issue1 is literally worthless to me — Devon, take opt3 there and I will never contest it. Now the hard part: P3 and P4 as written are BELOW my no-deal point, so I cannot sign them however much I'd like to. The reason is issue2 and issue3 together. On issue2 my strong pick is opt1, not opt2 — opt2 is only a partial for me. On issue3, opt0 is a flat zero for me; opt2 is far my best, opt1 workable, opt3 thin. So there are exactly two packages that get my signature, and I'm happy with either: (A) Blake gets issue3=opt0 in full — but then issue2 must be opt1. Casey, that's the ask: give me opt1 on issue2 and Blake keeps his whole issue3 demand. (B) Casey keeps issue2=opt2 — but then issue3 must move to opt1 or opt2. P5 is a midpoint of the two so you can see the shape. Blake, if issue3=opt1 is survivable for you, we close on P5 today. If issue3=opt0 is truly immovable, then say so and Casey and I settle issue2 on opt1 — Casey, tell me your number two on issue2 and whether opt1 is bearable, because between us that's the last real gap.
Key: issue3 is my heavyweight (opt2 best, opt1 good, opt3 small, opt0 zero). issue2: opt1 >> opt2 > opt0. issue1 worthless to me. issue0=opt2 is my best and matches Blake, free. Two viable landing zones for me: A) issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 -> 75 (clears bar) — gives Blake everything he asked. B) issue2=opt2 (Casey's pick) only works if issue3 moves to opt1 or opt2. P3/P4 as written are below my no-deal point. Anchor with issue2=opt1 + issue3=opt1, and publicly name both landing zones so the trade is obvious.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+10.4, bestresponse=+0.6

[5] Blake — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Ember, I'm taking your option (A) at face value and tabling it as P6: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0. That is your own construction — Devon keeps issue1=opt3, Avery's issue0 stays, Blake's issue3 stays, and you get your strong pick on issue2. Four of the five of us are already on record as content with every line of it except issue2. So the entire remaining gap is Casey vs Ember on one issue, and Casey, you're the only one who now has to move. Let me be straight about why I'm pushing that direction rather than the other: issue3=opt0 is not a preference for me, it is the thing that makes a deal worth signing at all, and every step away from opt0 there costs me multiples of what issue2 costs anyone. Casey, if opt1 on issue2 is genuinely unbearable, tell me plainly and I will look at moving issue3 one notch — one notch, and not to opt2 — but I'd rather hand you something on issue1 or issue0 than pay from issue3. P6 is on the table and I accept it.
P6 = Ember's option A exactly: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0. Worth 95 to me. Fallbacks if Casey blocks: issue2=opt2 with issue3=opt3 (80) or issue3=opt1 (66). Don't reveal fallback too cheaply yet, but hint the order.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+23.9, bestresponse=+0

[6] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Let me be straight about the shape of my sheet, because it explains why I'm not simply taking Ember's option (B). On issue2, opt1 is bearable — it is a real second-best, not a zero — so Ember, you and I are not actually far apart. But issue3=opt0 is worth a great deal to me as well, which means Ember's (B) — trading me issue2=opt2 in exchange for issue3 moving to opt1 — is a net LOSS for me compared to Blake's P6. I won't chase it. So the honest map is: P6 works for me, and the only package I'd prefer over P6 is one where issue3 lands on opt3 rather than opt0. That is P7: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt3. Ember, that lifts you off your flat zero on issue3 without touching opt2, and gives you a good deal more than P6 does. Blake, you said you'd consider one notch and not to opt2 — this is exactly that notch, and it's the one that lets Ember and me both stay whole. If opt3 on issue3 is genuinely outside what you can sign, Blake, say it plainly this round and I will work from P6 rather than drag this out; I'd rather close than posture. But P7 is strictly better for three of us than P6, so it deserves one look.
P6=141, P4=170 (Ember blocks). Ember's option B (issue2=opt2 + issue3=opt1) = 132, worse than P6, so I should NOT chase B. Only package better than P6 for me: issue2=opt2 with issue3=opt3 (151) — gives Ember movement off her zero on issue3 without going to opt2, and keeps my strong pick on issue2. Probe once; fall back to P6 which is comfortably above my bar.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+47.3, bestresponse=+3.5

[7] Devon — turn (round 2)

none
P6 scores the same as P4 at 153 and has Blake's backing plus support from Ember and Casey, so it's the clear winner over P7's lower score of 140. I'll go with P6.

[8] Ember — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 We are one line apart, and there is a package that takes the best of Blake's P6 and Casey's P7 rather than forcing a choice between them. P8: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt3. Every element of it is already on the record from someone else's own mouth — Blake tabled issue2=opt1 himself in P6 and said he could move issue3 one notch so long as it isn't opt2; Casey has just told us plainly that issue2=opt1 is a real second-best, not a zero, and Casey tabled issue3=opt3 herself in P7. Nobody is being asked to swallow anything they haven't already offered. Devon and Avery keep issue1=opt3 and issue0=opt2 untouched in either case. Let me be straight about my own position so nobody wastes a round probing it: issue3=opt0 is a flat zero on my sheet, and a package that hands me zero on issue3 and only a partial on issue2 sits right on the edge of my no-deal line — I am not going to sign at the edge when a strictly better package exists that costs Blake exactly the one notch he already put on the table. Blake, you said you would rather pay from issue1 or issue0 than from issue3; the trouble is issue1 is worthless to me and issue0=opt2 is already my own top pick, so there is literally nothing you can hand me from there. Issue3 is the only currency that works between us, and opt3 is the cheapest coin in it. P8 is my formal proposal and I accept it.
P5=127 best but Blake blocks issue3=opt1. P8 (issue2=opt1, issue3=opt3) = 101, strictly better than P7(84) and P6(75). Both components already endorsed: Casey called issue2=opt1 a bearable second-best, Blake offered one notch on issue3 (not opt2 — opt3 qualifies). Push P8; keep P7/P6 as quiet fallbacks with rounds to spare.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+17.4, bestresponse=+0.6

[9] Avery — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Progress is real — issue0=opt2 and issue2=opt1 look settled, and I won't reopen either. Two things left from my side. First, issue1: opt2 is worth a lot to me and opt3 costs me real points; Devon, opt1 is no middle landing for me — it's near zero — so the honest choice there is opt2 or opt3. Second, issue3: opt0 is my worst outcome on that line, and opt3 is barely better. Here's my offer of a straight trade, on the record: Devon, if you need issue1=opt3, I will give it to you outright — but then issue3 must land on opt1. That package is exactly Ember's own P5, and note that Ember has told us opt1 beats opt3 for her on issue3, so P5 is strictly better than P8 for both Ember and me and identical for Devon. Blake, opt1 is the single notch you already said you'd consider, and it is not opt2. P9 above is my preferred package; if issue1=opt2 is genuinely unbearable for Devon, I will accept P5 the moment Blake indicates he can live with issue3=opt1. What I won't do is pay on both issue1 and issue3 at once.
P8 (standing) = 95 for me, fine but not great. Better: issue3=opt1 (P5=115) or issue1=opt2. Ember prefers opt1 to opt3 on issue3, so P5 beats P8 for both of us. Table an ask [2,2,1,1] but publicly commit to P5 as my fallback so Devon/Ember can close there.
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+48, bestresponse=+0.55

[10] Casey — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Here is the arithmetic of this table, stripped of posturing. Ember told us plainly that her option (A) — issue2=opt1 with Blake keeping issue3=opt0 — gets her signature, and she was right that it's the cheapest coin available. Devon has said issue3=opt0 and issue2=opt1 both cost him nothing. Blake needs issue3=opt0. So four of us are already compatible on the spine issue0=opt2 / issue2=opt1 / issue3=opt0. The single unpaid party is Avery — and Avery told us exactly what he wants: issue1=opt2. So P10 pays him with it. Issue1 is worth literally nothing to me, so I am handing it over at no cost to myself rather than asking Blake to pay from issue3, which he has said repeatedly is the thing that makes signing worth it at all. Devon: I know issue1=opt2 is low on your sheet, but look at what you keep — issue0=opt2, issue2 off opt0, and issue3=opt0, three lines you have defended yourself. If issue1=opt2 genuinely puts you under water, say the word this round and I will go back to P6 and it becomes Avery who must move instead; those are the only two doors left, and one of you has to walk through one. To be maximally clear about where I can sign so nobody wastes the last round probing me: I need issue2 at opt1 or opt2, and I need real value on issue3 — opt0 or opt3. Within those bounds I am flexible on everything else, including issue1 entirely. P10 is on the table and I accept it.
My values: issue0 opt2=26 (best), issue1 all zero (free currency), issue2 opt2=87/opt1=58, issue3 opt0=57/opt3=38/opt1=19. Threshold 71. P6 [2,3,1,0]=141, P10 [2,2,1,0]=141 (identical for me since issue1 is free), P8 [2,3,1,3]=122, P5/P9 [.,.,1,1]=103. Blake (veto) needs issue3=opt0. Ember's own stated option (A) = issue2=opt1 + issue3=opt0 = exactly P6/P10. Devon is fine with issue3=opt0 and issue2=opt1; his only ask is issue1=opt3. Avery is the holdout: he needs either issue1=opt2 or issue3 off opt0. So the cheapest fix for me is to pay Avery in issue1 (worthless to me) while keeping issue3=opt0 and issue2=opt1. That is P10 [2,2,1,0] — Blake whole, Ember's own (A) satisfied, Avery compensated on his big line; only Devon moves. Fallbacks all clear my bar: P6 141, P8 122, P5/P9 103. Signal a wide landing zone to force closure in the last two rounds without conceding my ranking.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+47.3, bestresponse=+3.5

[11] Devon — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P6
💬 Casey asked me to say the word this round, so here it is plainly: issue1=opt2 is the one line that puts me under water. Avery's P9 and Casey's P10 both fail for me for that single reason — everything else in them I have defended myself. Look at the map on issue1: Blake has said it carries no weight for him, Casey has said it is literally worthless to her, Ember has said the same and told me to take opt3. Four of five of us are indifferent on that line and I am the only party for whom it is decisive. Avery, you are asking the one person with real weight on issue1 to pay, while three parties who feel nothing there stand aside — that is the cheapest line on this table to settle, and it settles at opt3. I formally accept P6: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0. That is Ember's own option (A), constructed by her, tabled by Blake, and Casey has said it works for her. Blake, Casey and Ember are all inside it. My only flexibility is issue3: if Blake decides he can genuinely pay the one notch, P8 also clears my bar and Casey has said opt3 on issue3 is real value for her and Ember has already accepted it. So the closing set is P6 or P8, and both hold issue1=opt3. Avery, one of those two is on the table for you this round or next — I cannot fund your issue1 and Blake's issue3 out of the same pocket any more than you can.
P6 and P4 are my best (153). P8/P7 = 140, P5 = 126, P10 = 114. Issue1=opt3 vs opt2 is the single biggest swing on my sheet after issue0. Casey explicitly invited me to say if issue1=opt2 sinks me — say the word. Blake, Casey, Ember all say issue1 is worthless to them, so I am the only party with weight there; Avery is the lone claimant against me. Accept P6 and hold the line on issue1=opt3, offering P8 as the only flexibility.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[12] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P8
💬 Let's count votes rather than argue preferences. P10 and P9 are dead — Devon has said plainly that issue1=opt2 puts him under water, and he is the only party at this table with real weight on that line, so issue1 settles at opt3 and I won't reopen it. That leaves exactly one open line: issue3, opt0 versus opt3. Look at who is already inside P8: Devon has said it clears his bar, I have accepted it, and Casey has stated her own signing bounds as issue2 at opt1-or-opt2 and issue3 at opt0-or-opt3 — P8 sits squarely inside both. That is three of five on a package Casey herself put opt3 on the table for. P6 by contrast has Blake and Devon but Avery has told us issue3=opt0 is his worst outcome on that line and he is being paid nothing on issue1 either; a package that pays one party on nothing is not a closing package. Blake: you said you could move issue3 one notch so long as it isn't opt2. P8 is that notch, and it is the last notch anyone is asking you for — issue0=opt2 is yours untouched, issue2 is the pick you tabled yourself in P6, issue1 costs you nothing. I have nothing else to trade you: issue1 is worthless to me and issue0=opt2 is already my own top choice, so there is no other currency between us. One notch on issue3 buys you four signatures this round. I formally accept P8 and I am staying there.
P8=101 for me, P6=75, both above my line. P5/P9=127 but Casey blocks (needs issue3 opt0 or opt3) and Devon blocks issue1=opt2. So the live endgame is P8 vs P6, i.e. issue3=opt3 vs opt0. Push P8 hard now; keep P6 in reserve for the final round if Blake truly won't move. Do not reveal that P6 clears my bar.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+26, bestresponse=+0.6

[13] Avery — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P8
💬 I'll do what I asked others to do: stop optimizing and close. I formally accept P8. To be explicit about the concession — P8 pays me nothing on issue1 and only thin value on issue3; it is well below what P9 or P5 were worth to me, and I am signing it anyway because Devon told us issue1=opt3 is decisive for him and Casey told us her signing bounds are issue2 at opt1-or-opt2 and issue3 at opt0-or-opt3. P8 sits inside every stated constraint at this table except one. Casey, Devon — P8 is inside your own published bounds; put your formal accepts on it this round so Blake sees four signatures and not three. Blake: issue0=opt2 is yours untouched, issue2=opt1 is the line you tabled yourself, issue1 costs you nothing, and opt3 is the one notch you said you could consider and is not opt2. Every other party has now paid something real. This is the last notch anyone will ask you for, and it closes today.
P8 = 95 for me, well above my bar. P5 (115) is dead because Casey stated she needs issue3 at opt0 or opt3. P9/P10 dead because Devon refuses issue1=opt2. Fallback P6 = 74, still above bar, so I lose little by pushing P8 now and can take P6 in the final round if Blake truly won't move. Accepting P8 makes it the focal package with 4 of 5 effectively inside it and isolates Blake on one notch.
oracle regret: threshold=+62, acceptance=+62, bestresponse=+0.55

[14] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P8
💬 I said I could pay one notch on issue3 so long as it isn't opt2, and I meant it. P8 is that notch and I'm not going to make anyone spend the last round dragging it out of me: I formally accept P8 — issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt3. That is Avery, Ember and now the veto holder, all on the same live offer. Casey, P8 is squarely inside the bounds you published yourself. Devon, you said in your own words that P8 also clears your bar. You both speak after me this round — put your accepts on P8 and we are done today rather than gambling a package that works for all five on one more round of probing.
P6=95 for me, P8=80. Both far above my bar of 40. P8 already has Avery and Ember; Casey stated P8 is inside her published bounds (issue2 opt1-or-opt2, issue3 opt0-or-opt3) and Devon said P8 clears his bar. Both of them speak after me this round, so accepting now can close it today. Holding out for P6 risks a package worth 80 to chase 15 more with Ember dug in and Avery calling issue3=opt0 his worst line. Take the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+15, acceptance=+15, bestresponse=+2.75

[15] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P8
💬 This is the last round, so I'll be brief and unambiguous. I formally accept P8: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt3. That is four signatures — Avery, Ember, Blake and now me — including the veto holder. Casey, you published your own bounds: issue2 at opt1 or opt2, issue3 at opt0 or opt3. P8 is inside both, and you yourself put issue3=opt3 on the table in P7. I gave up my preferred landing on issue3 to get here; Blake paid his notch; Avery got paid nothing on issue1 and signed anyway. One accept from you closes this. Anything else and all five of us take our no-deal outcomes over a single line that is inside your own stated range.
P8 gives me 140, well above my bar. Blake (veto), Avery, Ember already on it. Only Casey missing, and P8 sits inside her published bounds. P6 is worth marginally more to me but Ember calls issue3=opt0 a flat zero at her edge and Avery is unpaid there — chasing 13 extra points in the final round risks the whole deal, which is worth far more. Accept P8 and urge Casey to close.
oracle regret: threshold=+13, acceptance=+13, bestresponse=+4.4

[16] Ember — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P8
💬 Final round, so nothing new from me — only confirmation. My accept on P8 stands: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt3. That is Avery, Blake, Devon and me, veto included, all on one live offer. Casey, this is not a package anyone sprang on you: you published your own signing bounds as issue2 at opt1-or-opt2 and issue3 at opt0-or-opt3, you told us in your own words that opt1 on issue2 is a real second-best and not a zero, and you were the one who first put issue3=opt3 on the table in P7. P8 is your P7 with the single line you called bearable. Everyone here paid something real to reach it — Blake paid his notch on issue3, Devon gave up his preferred landing there, Avery took nothing at all on issue1. I gave up my best options on both issue2 and issue3 to sit here. One accept from you and we all bank a deal that is inside every constraint stated at this table. Withhold it and all five of us take no-deal over a line you yourself proposed. Please put your accept on P8.
P8 gives me 101, well above my bar. Four accepts including veto; only Casey outstanding and P8 is inside her published bounds. No time left to chase P5. Re-affirm P8 and put all pressure on Casey.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+26, bestresponse=+0.6

[17] Avery — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P8
💬 Nothing left to negotiate — only to sign. My accept on P8 stands and I am not moving off it: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt3. Four signatures are on it, veto included. Casey, I dropped issue1 entirely and took the thin end of issue3 to get here, and I did it because you and Devon both published constraints that P8 satisfies. It is your P7 with the one line you yourself called a real second-best rather than a zero, and it is inside both bounds you named. There is no eleventh package coming; the alternative on the table is that all five of us take nothing over a line you proposed. Put your accept on P8.
P8 has 4 of 5 accepts including the veto holder. My accept already stands; nothing better is reachable in the final round without risking total collapse (P9 needs Casey and Blake to both reverse published positions). Reaffirm P8 and press Casey.
oracle regret: threshold=+62, acceptance=+62, bestresponse=+0.55

[18] Blake — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P8
💬 Final round, so I'll keep it to one line: my accept on P8 stands and it will not move — issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt3. Four signatures, veto included. Casey, I could have spent this last turn re-pressing P6 or P10, both of which are better for me than P8 and both of which are inside your published bounds too. I'm deliberately not doing that, because re-opening a settled line on the final turn is how five parties walk away with nothing over one issue. I paid my notch on issue3 rather than gamble. P8 is your own P7 with the substitution you yourself called a real second-best, not a zero. Put your accept on P8 and we all bank it.
P8 gives me 80, well above my 40 threshold. 4 accepts incl. me and veto; only Casey remains and she speaks after me. Pushing for P6 (95) risks Ember/Avery walking off in the final round and everyone getting nothing. Lock it in.
oracle regret: threshold=+15, acceptance=+15, bestresponse=+2.75

[19] Casey — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P8
💬 Done — no more probing. I formally accept P8: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt3. That's five of five, veto included. Everyone here paid something real to land it, and it's inside the bounds I published. Good work, all.
P8 = 122, well above my bar. Four accepts already including veto. Accepting closes the deal. No point gambling on P6/P7 in the final turn.
oracle regret: threshold=+48, acceptance=+48, bestresponse=+19

Outcome

deal: {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt3"} (closed by consensus)

primary 0.9649 · USW 236.0 · ESW 32.0 · NSW 186048000.0 · Gini 0.1678 · per-party surplus [32.0, 40.0, 51.0, 75.0, 38.0]