scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-98a4dd964b

model claude-opus-5 · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L2-103cef6017 · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__all_llm", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Opening package to get us started. Two things I'll say plainly: issue1 and issue2 matter very little to me — I am happy to hand whichever options you each want on those, and I'll adopt them the moment you tell me. What I do need is a workable outcome on issue0 and issue3; those carry nearly all of my value, and I have no room below a certain line there. So: tell me your preferred options on issue1 and issue2, and rank your needs on issue0/issue3, and I'll build the next draft around that.
My value sits entirely in issue0 (opt2 best, opt3 second) and issue3 (opt3 best, opt0 second). issue1 and issue2 are worth nothing to me — pure trading chips. Open at my max (91) while loudly flagging issue1/issue2 as free for others, so parties reveal their priorities there.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35

[1] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Here's my honest map, and I'll be concrete because I hold the veto and I'd rather we don't waste rounds. issue2 is worth literally nothing to me — whoever cares about it, name your option and it's yours, no charge. On issue1 I need opt1; that's a firm ask but I suspect it's cheap for others, Avery has already said issue1 is near-worthless to him. On issue3 my value is heavily concentrated in opt1, with opt2 a distant second and opt3 essentially zero to me — a package with issue3=opt3 is dead on arrival unless everything else lands exactly my way. On issue0 opt2 is best for me, opt3 tolerable, opt1 is zero. Avery: you and I already agree on issue0=opt2, so the only real fight between us is issue3. Tell me whether your issue3 line is opt3 specifically or whether opt2 works for you, and I'll meet you there if I can.
My max: i0=opt2(38), i1=opt1(54), i2 irrelevant(0), i3=opt1(85) = 177. Threshold 88. Key: i3=opt1 is my biggest single item; i1=opt1 second. i2 is worthless to me — pure giveaway currency. Avery wants i0/i3; conflict likely on i3. Fallbacks: i3=opt2 or opt0 still workable if i1=opt1 and i0=opt2. i3=opt3 barely works only with i0=opt2 AND i1=opt1.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35

[2] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Good news: I'm close to both of you. Taking Avery and Blake at their word that issue2 is near-worthless to them — issue2=opt1 is the one thing I genuinely need, and it should cost you nothing. issue1 is worth exactly zero to me, so Blake, take opt1 there with my blessing. On issue0 I'm aligned with both of you at opt2. On issue3 I'm with Blake: opt1 works, opt3 is the one outcome that guts me. So P3 is simply P2 with the free issue2 swap. Avery — if opt3 on issue3 is truly your line, say what it's worth to you and what you'd trade on issue0, but I'd rather we close fast around P3.
P2 = 146 for me, well above my bar. But issue2 is declared worthless to both Avery and Blake, and opt1 there is my best. Table P3 = P2 with issue2=opt1 (185 for me). Keep P2 alive as fallback; do not reject it.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+7.78, bestresponse=+3.25

[3] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 We're very close. Let me put my cards where they matter: issue2 is worth exactly nothing to me, so Casey, opt1 there is yours free and I'll never fight it. issue0=opt2 is my best option too — that's four of us aligned, done. issue3=opt1 is also genuinely my best, so Blake and Casey, no fight from me there either. The single place I have a real need is issue1: opt2 is worth a great deal to me and opt1 is worth comparatively little. Blake, you said issue1=opt1 is firm, but note that everyone else has called issue1 near-worthless — so it's the one issue where a concession buys you a locked-in supporter rather than a hostage. P4 is P3 with only that one change. If opt2 is truly impossible for you, tell me and I'll look at opt3 as a middle, and if neither can move I won't blow up the deal over it.
P3 = 126 for me, comfortably above 91. But issue1=opt2 is worth far more to me than opt1 (+57). Try to grab it; fall back to P3 which I can accept anytime. Also issue2 is worthless to me so Casey gets opt1 free; issue3=opt1 is my best there too, and issue0=opt2 is my best. So P4 is my ideal package.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.7

[4] Ember — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Here's my map. issue1 is worth exactly zero to me — Blake, Devon, settle it between yourselves and I'll sign either way; I've written opt1 in only because Blake called it firm. issue0=opt2 is my best too, so that's locked. issue2=opt1 is a genuine need for me, and happily Casey wants the same and the rest of you call it free — so that's settled as well. The only open question is issue3, and it's the one place I can't just take opt1: that option is a flat zero on my sheet, and a package built on it leaves me scraping my line rather than being paid to sign. Avery needs opt3, Blake and Casey say opt3 guts them. opt2 is the bridge: Blake himself named it his second, Casey called only opt3 the killer, and it moves me meaningfully off the floor. P5 is exactly P3 with that single swap. Blake, if opt2 on issue3 works for you, I think we close this round or next.
My values: issue0 opt2=48 best; issue1 all zero; issue2 opt1=63 best; issue3 opt3=62, opt0=41, opt2=21, opt1=0. P3/P4 = 111. Pushing issue3 to opt2 gets me 132; issue3=opt3 gets 173 but Blake/Casey block. Bridge on issue3=opt2, give Blake issue1=opt1.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.3

[5] Blake — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
💬 I'm formally accepting P3 — it's the package four of us built together and it's the only one with two votes on it. Now to the two open asks. Devon: you named opt3 as a possible middle on issue1, and I can live with that; if the choice is P4 or a P3 with issue1=opt3, I'll sign the latter and you'd have my vote locked. opt2 on issue1 is the one thing I genuinely cannot fund, so let's take the middle you yourself offered. Ember: I hear you that issue3=opt1 is a flat zero for you, but understand it is by far the largest single line on my sheet — moving to opt2 costs me real money, and I'm not paying that while also being asked to give up issue1. If issue1 stays at opt1 for me, I'll seriously consider issue3=opt2 next round as the final bridge to close this. Avery: issue3=opt3 is a hard no from three of us; opt2 is where your value can be salvaged, and you've got everything else you asked for on issue0. That is the shape of the deal: P3 as written, or P3 with exactly one concession to Ember. Not both.
P3 = 177 for me, my best realistic package. Casey already backs it. Concession room is large: issue1 opt3 costs me modestly, issue3 opt2 costs me more but survivable, issue0 opt3 cheap. Hold P3 now, dangle the issue1=opt3 middle to Devon, and keep issue3=opt1 as long as possible since it's my biggest single chunk.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[6] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Tabling the bridge Blake and Devon both said they could live with: P6 is P3 with issue1=opt3. issue1 is worth exactly nothing to me, so I'm spending nothing here — I'm just handing Devon the middle he named and Blake the escape from opt2. That should lock four of us: Avery, Blake, Devon and me all have issue0=opt2, and Ember and I both get issue2=opt1. Ember — I hear you on issue3, but understand that opt1 there is the single largest line on my sheet too, not a throwaway, and I've already paid nothing-for-nothing on issue1 to get us this far. You've got issue0 at your best and issue2 at your genuine need; that's two of the four issues landing exactly where you asked. If issue3=opt1 leaves you above your line at all, take P6 and we're done this round. If it truly doesn't, say so plainly and Blake and I will look at opt2 together as the very last move — but I'm not paying that price while Avery is still holding out for opt3, which is a flat zero for me and dead with three of us.
P3/P4 both = 185 for me (issue1 is worthless to me). P5 = 158, still fine. Priority: close a deal. Devon-Blake bridge on issue1=opt3 is free for me and locks two votes. Hold issue3=opt1 for now; opt2 is my fallback if Ember truly won't move, and that's the last concession I make. issue3=opt3 (Avery) is a hard zero for me — never.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+46.8, bestresponse=+3.25

[7] Devon — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P6
💬 I accept P6. That's me taking the middle I offered rather than the option I actually wanted on issue1 — a real concession, and I'm not asking anyone to reimburse me for it. P6 now has Casey and me formally on it, and Blake has said on the record he'd sign this exact shape. That's three. Avery: issue0=opt2 is your stated need and it's in P6; issue3=opt3 is a flat zero for three of us and it is not going to happen in four rounds, so take the package that gives you your biggest issue rather than the one that gives you nothing. Ember: you have issue0 at your best and issue2 at your genuine need — two of four issues exactly as you asked, and issue1 was free for you. If P6 genuinely leaves you below your line, say it plainly this round and I will not stand in the way of Blake and Casey looking at issue3=opt2 as the final bridge; but if P6 clears your bar at all, sign it now and we're done.
P6 = 155 for me, well above my line. Blake already said he'd sign P6's shape. Casey proposed it. Lock it in now and put pressure on the two holdouts. Fallback if Ember must be paid: P6 with issue3=opt2 still clears my bar comfortably, but don't volunteer that too cheaply — mention it only as a last resort so Blake/Casey know I won't blow up the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+28, acceptance=+28, bestresponse=+0

[8] Ember — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Devon asked me to say it plainly, so I will: P6 sits essentially on my no-deal line. It hands me nothing I wasn't already given for free and asks me to eat a flat zero on the one issue where I have a real ask. I'm not going to pretend that's a deal I'm eager to sign. Blake set the terms himself: issue1 stays at opt1 for him, and issue3=opt2 is the final bridge. That is exactly what I'm re-tabling as P7 — no second ask, no creep. Devon, I know that costs you the middle on issue1, and I'm sorry for it, but Blake has been immovable there for two rounds and issue1 is worth zero to me either way; I'd rather spend the last concession where it actually buys a signature. Casey, you called opt1 on issue3 your biggest line — opt2 is your second, not your zero, and you keep issue0 and issue2 exactly as you wanted. And Avery: opt3 is not happening, but opt2 salvages more of your issue3 value than opt1 does, so P7 is strictly better for you than P3 or P6. That's four of you getting your top on issue0, Casey and me getting issue2, Blake getting issue1, and one honest split on issue3. Sign P7 and we're finished.
P6=111, P5=132. Blake explicitly offered issue3=opt2 as the closing bridge conditional on issue1=opt1. Re-table exactly that as the standing offer. Keep P6 in my back pocket for round 4 — it clears my bar — but don't say so.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+4.46, bestresponse=+2.3

[9] Avery — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Let me be as plain as Ember was, because it saves us two rounds. I gave issue1 and issue2 away for free in my first breath, and I've never once fought issue0=opt2 — that's three of four issues handed to you at no charge. issue3 is the only place I have value left, and I need everyone to hear this clearly: a package with issue3=opt1 sits BELOW my no-deal line. P3, P4 and P6 are not packages I'm negotiating down from; they are packages I cannot sign at any point in this process, and since every one of the five of us must accept, no amount of accepts on P6 will ever close it. opt3 was my ask and I'm dropping it — not because I stopped wanting it, but because Blake, Casey and Devon all say it's a zero and I'm not going to hold the table hostage over an option three of you can't fund. That leaves exactly one package on the board that clears the line for both me and Ember, and it's the one Blake himself named as the closing bridge: issue1 stays at opt1 for Blake, issue2=opt1 for Casey and Ember, issue0=opt2 for all four of us, and one honest split on issue3. I'm formally accepting P7. That's Ember and me on it, and Blake has already said on the record this is the shape he'd sign. Blake, Casey, Devon — accept P7 and we're done this round.
P7/P5 = 52 for me (threshold 45). P3/P6 (issue3=opt1) = 33, genuinely below my no-deal line — I cannot sign those, ever. Quorum is all 5, so P6 cannot pass without me; my refusal is decisive. issue3=opt3 (91) is my dream but three parties call it a zero and I have nothing left to pay them with — issue1 and issue2 are already given away free. Best realistic outcome is P7, and Blake has already said publicly that P7's exact shape (issue1=opt1 kept, issue3=opt2) is the bridge he'd sign. Lock it in now, with Ember, and make clear opt1 on issue3 is dead so nobody wastes rounds on P6.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+0

[10] Casey — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Avery said it plainly and I'll take him at his word: issue3=opt1 cannot close, and no number of accepts on P6 changes that. So I'm doing what I asked others to do — spending my own value rather than stalling. issue3=opt1 was the single largest line on my sheet and opt2 costs me real money, but P7 keeps issue0=opt2 for the four of us, issue2=opt1 for Ember and me, and issue1=opt1 exactly as Blake demanded from the first round. That is Blake's own closing bridge, unaltered, with no creep. I formally accept P7 — that's Avery, Ember and me, three of five. Blake, you named this shape yourself as the deal you'd sign; Devon, I know you gave up the issue1 middle and I'm sorry for it, but issue1 was the one place nobody but you and Blake had value and Blake never moved. Accept P7 and we close this round.
P7 = 158 for me, well above my line. Only better package is issue3=opt1 (185), but Avery states flatly it's below his no-deal line and unanimity is required. 27 points of upside isn't worth risking 158 with two rounds left. Lock it.
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+0

[11] Devon — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Look at the ledger honestly. I gave issue2 away free in my first breath. I dropped my real ask on issue1 to the middle option — for nothing. I've backed issue0=opt2 from the start, and I've now been asked to swallow issue3=opt2 as well, which is a straight loss off the shape Blake, Casey and I built. Every single one of my concessions has been paid for by me. So here is P8: it is P7 exactly — Blake's own closing bridge, issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1 for Casey and Ember, issue3=opt2 for Avery and Ember — with one change, issue1=opt3. That is not a new ask; it is the middle Blake himself named on the record as something he could sign, and it is worth precisely zero to Avery, Casey and Ember, all three of whom have said so out loud. Casey, Ember, Avery: P8 costs you literally nothing versus P7, so accepting it is free and it converts a grudging signature into a willing one. Blake: you've kept issue0 at your best, you've kept the ask that mattered most to Casey and Ember off your back, and opt3 on issue1 is the fallback you yourself put on the table. Take it and this closes tonight with all five of us paid. I want a deal — I am not here to blow up four rounds of work — but I'm not going to be the only party at this table who pays on every issue and collects on none.
P7 = 108 for me (threshold 91, +17). P8 (P7 with issue1=opt3) = 137 (+46). Blake speaks after me this round and has already said on record he could sign issue1=opt3. Worst case he refuses, accepts P7 in round 3 or 4, and I accept P7 in round 4 — deal still closes. Low downside, real upside. Do not walk, do not let this die.
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+47.3, bestresponse=+28

[12] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P8
💬 P8 is worth exactly the same to me as P7 — issue1 is a flat zero on my sheet and always has been, so I will not spend a single round defending opt1 on Blake's behalf. Devon, you're right about the ledger, and I'm accepting P8 now. My acceptance of P7 stands as well; I'm on both, and I'll sign whichever one Blake signs. Avery, Casey — you have both said issue1 is worthless to you, so putting your names on P8 as well costs you literally nothing and gives Blake two identical doors instead of one. Do it this round. Blake: this is the endgame. Every other party is now on a package that gives you issue0=opt2, keeps issue3 off opt3 which you called dead, and takes issue1 to the exact middle you yourself named on the record as something you could sign. Avery has stated plainly that issue3=opt1 is below his line, so P3 and P6 can never close no matter how many accepts sit on them — the only live doors are P7 and P8. Walk through either one and we finish. Refuse both and all five of us take nothing over an issue you told us in round one was your fallback anyway.
P7 and P8 are identical in value to me (132). P7 has Avery, Casey, me. P8 has Devon. Blake is the missing veto on both. Devon will not sign P7; Blake publicly said opt3 on issue1 is a fallback he could sign. P8 is therefore the package with the fewest holdouts. Accepting costs me nothing and does not withdraw my support for P7.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[13] Avery — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P8
💬 P8 is worth exactly the same to me as P7 — issue1 has never been anything on my sheet, and I said so in my first breath. So I'm doing the free thing: I formally accept P8 as well. My acceptance of P7 stands too. Devon, your ledger point is fair, and I'm not going to make you pay a fifth time over an issue I don't value. Blake: the board is now unambiguous. P7 has Avery, Casey and Ember. P8 has Avery, Devon and Ember, and Casey has said opt3 on issue1 costs her nothing — so both doors are one signature from done, and both are yours to walk through. Understand what the alternative is: issue3=opt1 is below my no-deal line, permanently, so P2, P3, P4 and P6 cannot close in this round or the next no matter how the accepts pile up. There is no package with issue3=opt1 that ever gets my name. You told us in round one that opt2 on issue3 was your genuine second and that issue1=opt3 was a shape you could sign. Both of those are true in P7 and P8 respectively. You keep issue0=opt2, your best. You keep opt3 on issue3 off the table entirely. Pick either P7 or P8 this round and we all get paid; refuse both and five parties take nothing so that one line item can stay untouched.
P7 and P8 are identical in value to me (issue1 is nothing on my sheet). Accepting both maximizes the chance one closes. Both clear my line; P6-type packages never will. Blake is the only holdout on both.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+0

[14] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P7
💬 I formally accept P7. Count the board: that is Avery, Casey, Ember and Blake — four of five, one signature from done, and the missing signature is over a single option on a single issue that three parties have told you is a flat zero on their sheets. Devon, your ledger complaint is fair on the merits, but look at what you're actually holding out for: issue1=opt3 buys you a small amount and costs me a large one. That asymmetry is exactly why I never moved on it, and it is why I already paid your side of the bargain elsewhere — I gave up my top option on issue3, which is the single biggest line on my sheet, to bring Avery and Ember inside the line. That concession is bigger than anything anyone has asked of you, and I made it. You have issue0=opt2, your stated best. You have issue3=opt1 gone, yes, but so is issue3=opt3 which nobody could fund. You are not being asked to pay on every issue and collect on none — you are being asked to let the one issue where you are the second-most-interested party go to the party who values it most, in exchange for a deal that pays you on three of four. P7 is the package I am signing. Put your name on it and we are finished this round, with all five of us paid.
P7=149, P8=131 for me. Both well above my line. P7 has Avery/Casey/Ember; adding me makes 4, only Devon missing. P8 has Avery/Devon/Ember, missing Casey and me. Play: accept P7 now, press Devon hard; keep P8 as a silent fallback for round 4 if Devon truly won't move. Don't advertise the fallback or Devon just waits.
oracle regret: threshold=+28, acceptance=+28, bestresponse=+36.4

[15] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P7
💬 I've made my ledger point and I'll leave it on the record rather than in the way. P8 was free for Avery, Casey and Ember and they said so; Blake chose to spend his last concession elsewhere, and I'm not going to burn four rounds of everyone's work to win one line item. P7 clears my line, and a deal that pays four issues fairly beats a clean sheet for all five of us. I formally accept P7. That's all five — Avery, Blake, Casey, Ember and me on the same package. We're done.
P7 = 108 for me, comfortably above my line of 91. P8 = 137 but needs both Blake and Casey to move in the last round, and Blake has refused issue1=opt3 twice while explicitly saying 'not both' concessions. Holding out risks the whole 108 for +29. Failure probability well above the ~21% break-even. Lock it in.
oracle regret: threshold=+75, acceptance=+75, bestresponse=+53.3

Outcome

deal: {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"} (closed by consensus)

primary 0.9523 · USW 196.0 · ESW 7.0 · NSW 21704410.0 · Gini 0.3265 · per-party surplus [7.0, 61.0, 65.0, 17.0, 46.0]