scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-9ac80b9a10

model claude-opus-5 · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L1-aabb4d986b · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__all_llm", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Good morning all. Let me put a marker down so we have something concrete to work from. Here is my opening package. One important signal up front: issue2 is genuinely flexible for me — I have essentially no stake there, so whoever cares most about issue2 can name their option and I will back it without asking anything in return. Issue1 is where my value is concentrated; I have real room to move on issue0 and issue3 if the rest of the package works. Tell me your priorities and I'll build the next draft around them.
Max package: i0=opt2(48), i1=opt0(58), i3=opt2(41) = 147. issue2 is worthless to me either way — pure trading currency. Threshold 68, so I need roughly my top pick on issue1 plus one other good issue, or two strong ones. Open high, flag issue2 as free.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35

[1] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Thanks Avery. Let me be equally transparent about structure: issue2 and issue3 are worth literally nothing to me — I will sign whatever Casey, Devon and Ember want on both of those, no strings. All of my value sits in issue0 and issue1. So the efficient trade is obvious: I take the lead on issue0 and issue1, and the other three of you split issue2 and issue3 however you like. Avery, I've kept your issue2 and issue3 picks intact in my draft as a good-faith start, and they're yours to change. On issue1 I do need a high option — opt3 is where I'm strongest, though I have some ladder there if you can show me issue1 matters more to you than issue0 does. I hold a veto, so let's spend our four rounds finding the package that actually clears everyone's bar rather than posturing.
My value: issue0 opt2=33, opt1=22, opt3=11, opt0=0. issue1: opt3=77, opt2=51, opt1=26, opt0=0. issue2/issue3 worth nothing to me. Threshold 49. P1 gives 33 — reject. Best play: claim issue0+issue1, hand issue2+issue3 entirely to others as real currency. Avery says issue1 is their core, so that's the fight; I have fallback options (opt2=51 or even opt1 combined with issue0 opt2 = 59).
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.05

[2] Casey — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P1
💬 Helpful openings, both of you. My cards, plainly: issue2 is where nearly all my value sits, and it has to be opt0 — that's the one thing I can't trade. Good news is issue3 is worth precisely nothing to me, so Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember: issue3 is a free gift, name any option there and I'll sign it. On issue0 I'm fine with opt2 as both drafts have it. On issue1 I do prefer the low end — opt0 is best for me — but I have a ladder there and could live with opt1 if the rest holds, so Blake, that's the axis where I can genuinely pay you. Right now P1 clears my bar comfortably and I'm formally accepting it, so it stays alive as a baseline while we work on Blake's issue1 need.
P1 = 195 for me, near-ideal. P2 = 141, still above bar. My real must-have is issue2=opt0 (huge), then issue1 low options (opt0 best, opt1 acceptable), issue0=opt2 best. issue3 is worth exactly zero to me — pure giveaway currency. Accept P1 now to lock a strong anchor; I have ladder room on issue1 and total flexibility on issue3 to buy Blake later.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[3] Devon — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Clear signal from me: issue3 is worth nothing to me, so Avery and Blake can have any option there — I'll sign it. Issue2=opt0 works for me, so Casey, your red line is safe with me. My value is concentrated in issue1, and like Blake I need the high end — opt3 is what makes this deal worth doing for me. That means Blake and I are aligned there, and Casey, you said you have a ladder on issue1 and that issue3 is free to you: take whatever compensation you need on issue0 and issue3 and I'll back it. P2 clears my bar and I'm formally accepting it now — Blake, Casey, Avery, Ember, let's build from P2 and adjust issue0/issue3 to whoever needs them.
P2 = 173 for me, well above my bar of 90. issue1=opt3 and issue0=opt2 are both my best options; only issue2 could improve (opt2 over opt0) but Casey has staked everything on issue2=opt0. Don't get greedy — lock in P2 and help build the coalition around it.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[4] Ember — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Very useful — the structure is nearly solved. My cards: issue2 is worth exactly nothing to me, so Casey, issue2=opt0 is locked in from my side with no compensation asked. On issue1 I'm firmly with Blake and Devon: opt3 is where my value is, so that axis is settled by three of us. issue0=opt2 already suits me and is in both drafts. The one thing I actually need is issue3. Three of you have said issue3 is literally worthless to you and Avery said he has real room there — so let me cash exactly that one chip and nothing else: issue3=opt1. P3 is P2 with only that single change, identical on every other issue. If issue3=opt1 costs any of you something real, say so and I'll listen, but if it's genuinely free then P3 is a strict improvement over P2 for the table and I'd urge all four of you to accept it now so we can close in round two.
P2 = 199 for me, well above bar. But issue3=opt1 is worth ~30 more to me and Blake, Casey, Devon all declared issue3 worthless; Avery said he has room there. issue0=opt2 is already my best; issue1=opt3 is my best. So P3 is my ideal and costs almost nobody anything. Keep P2 alive as fallback and accept it later if P3 stalls.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+32.7, bestresponse=+0

[5] Blake — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
💬 Ember, that was the right read — issue3 costs me nothing, so opt1 there is free from my side and I'm not asking for a cent in return. P3 keeps issue0=opt2 (which all five of us have now endorsed), issue2=opt0 (Casey's red line, untouched), issue1=opt3 (Devon, Ember and I aligned), and gives Ember the one chip she asked for. I'm formally accepting P3 now, and as the veto holder let me be plain: P3 is the package I will sign. Casey, you said issue3 is worthless to you and that you have a ladder on issue1 — P3 protects your one non-negotiable exactly. Avery, you opened saying issue2 was free and you had real room on issue0 and issue3, and P3 takes you up on precisely that. If either of you needs something real to get over your bar, name the single cheapest thing and I'll try to fund it out of issue0 — but issue1=opt3 and issue2=opt0 are the spine of any deal I accept. Four accepts on P3 and we're done in round two.
P3 is literally my maximum-value package: issue0=opt2 and issue1=opt3 are my two best picks, and issue2/issue3 are worth nothing to me. Accept immediately and push for closure.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[6] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 We are one small step from done, and I want to be honest rather than hold the table hostage. Everything in P3 except issue1 suits me: issue0=opt2 is fine, issue2=opt0 is my red line and you've all protected it, and issue3=opt1 is Ember's free chip — I have zero objection to it and will never touch it again. But issue1=opt3 is not costless to me; it's the bottom of my ladder and it's the only place I'm paying for this deal. So here is P4: identical to P3 on issue0, issue2 and issue3 — Ember keeps issue3=opt1, Casey's red line untouched — with issue1 moved just one rung to opt2. Blake, Devon, Ember: three of you have said issue1 is where your value sits, and I believe you, which is why I'm asking for one rung and not the whole ladder. One rung from three of you closes this in round two; I'll accept P4 the moment it's on the board and I'm not asking for anything else anywhere in the package. If issue1 truly has no ladder for any of you, say so plainly and I'll keep working with you rather than walk us into no-deal.
P3 = 141 for me, well above my bar. My max upside: issue1 lower. issue0=opt2 and issue2=opt0 already my best. One-step ask on issue1 (opt2) worth a modest amount; I have rounds 3 and 4 as safety net to accept P3 if they hold firm. Keep tone cooperative — I must not blow up a +51 deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+36, acceptance=+51.9, bestresponse=+2.55

[7] Devon — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
💬 Casey, I hear you, and I'm not going to pretend issue1 is costless for you. But issue1 is not a ladder for me — it's the cliff. Dropping a rung there takes more out of my package than everything else combined, and the same seems true for Blake and Ember. That's three of us paying a lot to save you one rung. So let me pay you somewhere else instead: issue0 is the one axis where I have genuine give. Name any option on issue0 — opt0, opt1, opt3, whatever is actually worth something to you — and I will back it immediately and ask for nothing back, provided issue1 stays at opt3. Avery said he had real room on issue0 too, and Blake offered to fund exactly this out of issue0. That's a real payment, not a plea. I'm formally accepting P3 now: that's Blake, Ember and me on the same package, with Casey's issue2 red line and Ember's issue3 chip both intact. Casey, tell me your issue0 number and I'll table it next turn.
P3=173, P4=141. Both clear my bar. Push P3 hard now with three accepts; keep P4 as a real fallback but don't reveal that yet. Offer Casey issue0 as compensation currency since issue1=opt3 is where my value truly concentrates.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[8] Ember — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Casey, Devon is right that issue1 is a cliff, not a ladder, for those of us on the high side — but you shouldn't have to pay unpaid. So I'm putting my money where my mouth is on the one axis nobody has yet paid you on: P5 is P3 with issue0 moved off opt2 to opt1 as a real, unrequested payment from me. And to be completely explicit: issue0 is for sale to Avery and Casey at any option — opt0, opt1, opt3 — name it and I will table and sign it this round, no strings, provided issue1 stays at opt3 and Casey's issue2=opt0 stays untouched. Avery, if issue0 isn't your axis: you put issue3=opt2 in your own opening twice. issue3 is my one real chip, but I would rather move it one rung than lose the deal — say the word and I will back issue0=opt2/issue1=opt3/issue2=opt0/issue3=opt2, which is P2 and already has Blake's and Devon's accepts. So there are now three closable shapes on the board that respect Casey's red line: P3, P5, and P2. Tell me which of the three, or name your issue0 option, and we finish this round.
P3=228 for me, P2=199, P4=195, P1=101 (below bar - must never accept P1). No-deal=0, so closing matters far more than squeezing. Holdouts are Avery and Casey, both want low issue1. Blake (veto) and Devon insist issue1=opt3. I should fund them on issue0 (cheap-ish for me) and hint at issue3=opt2 (P2, moderate cost) rather than let issue1 collapse. Fallbacks P4/P2 are still fine if forced.
oracle regret: threshold=+14, acceptance=+61.7, bestresponse=+6.15

[9] Avery — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Ember, I'm taking you up on your own words: you said if issue3=opt2 is what it takes, you'd back P2 — I'm accepting P2 now, so that's Blake, Devon and me on it, and your accept closes four. To be clear about my ledger, since I've been the most transparent here: issue2 I gave away for free in round one and I've never touched Casey's red line. issue0=opt2 is genuinely my best option there, which is why I'm not asking Ember for any issue0 payment — P5 with issue0=opt1 AND issue3=opt1 falls below my walk-away line, so I can't sign it in any form. That leaves issue3 as the only axis where I can be paid, and issue3=opt2 is the payment. Casey: you've said twice that issue3 is worth precisely nothing to you, so moving it from opt1 to opt2 costs you literally nothing and it's the difference between me signing and me not signing. If you still need a rung on issue1, then P4 with issue3 moved to opt2 also works for me and I'd table it — but Blake, Devon and Ember have all called issue1 a cliff, so P2 is the shape that actually has four accepts on it right now. Ember, one rung of your chip buys you the whole deal.
P2 = 89 for me, P3 = 75, P4 = 94, P5 = 59 (below threshold, must never accept). P2 already has Blake+Devon; Ember explicitly offered to back P2. My accept makes 3. issue0=opt2 is my best on that axis, so I want it kept — Ember's 'issue0 for sale' doesn't help me. Fallback if Casey demands issue0=opt1: still 73 with issue3=opt2. Never accept P5 or anything with issue0 low AND issue3 low.
oracle regret: threshold=+58, acceptance=+58, bestresponse=+0.35

[10] Casey — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Taking Avery at his word: he said P4 with issue3 moved to opt2 works for him. That package is exactly what I'm tabling as P6 — issue0=opt2 (everyone's endorsed it), issue2=opt0 (my red line), issue3=opt2 (Avery's stated signing condition, and Ember said she'd move that rung rather than lose the deal), and issue1 at opt2, one single rung. Note what P6 does: it satisfies Avery's explicit condition AND gives me the one rung I've asked for, and it costs Blake, Devon and Ember exactly one rung each on issue1 — the only concession anyone has asked of the three of you all negotiation. On issue0, thank you Devon and Ember for the genuine offer, but opt2 is already my best option there, so there is nothing to buy me with on that axis; the payment has to come from issue1 or nowhere. I've been protected on issue2 and I've never once touched Ember's issue3 chip or Avery's issue0 pick — I've asked for one rung, not the ladder. P6 already has Avery's stated blessing and my accept; three more and we're closed this round, no round-four brinkmanship. If issue1 genuinely has zero give for all three of you, say so plainly on your turn and I'll work with what's left rather than take this table to no-deal — but I'd rather you spend one rung than test that.
P2 = 141 for me, P6 (P2 with issue1=opt2) = 159. issue0=opt2 is already my best, issue3 worthless, so issue1 is the only axis left. Avery explicitly said P4-with-issue3=opt2 works for him — that is exactly P6. Push P6 this round; if it stalls, accept P2 in round 4 (I'm third in rotation, Ember votes after me and has said she'd sign P2). Don't threaten a walk I won't make, but don't announce the fold either.
oracle regret: threshold=+36, acceptance=+51.9, bestresponse=+2.55

[11] Devon — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Ember — you said in your own words that you would back issue0=opt2 / issue1=opt3 / issue2=opt0 / issue3=opt2 rather than lose the deal. That is P2, and it already carries Avery, Blake and me. Your accept makes it four, with only Casey left. I'm reaffirming my accept of P2 now. Casey: I've offered you every axis I own. You told us issue0=opt2 is already your best, issue2=opt0 is untouched in every live package, and issue3 is worthless to you — so P2 costs you nothing anywhere except issue1, and issue1 is precisely where Blake, Ember and I each lose more from one rung than you gain from it. That's not posturing, it's arithmetic: your rung is cheap to ask for and expensive to give, which is exactly why it's the wrong place to settle. Blake holds the veto and has said twice that issue1=opt3 is the spine of anything he signs — so P4 and P6 aren't a safe harbour for you, they're a route to no-deal for all five of us. P2 is the only shape on the board that satisfies Avery's stated signing condition, protects your red line, and clears the veto. Take it and we close this round.
P2 = 173 for me, P6/P4 = 141, all above my bar. P2 needs Casey + Ember. Ember publicly promised to back P2. Casey is the sole holdout and has no axis left to be paid on except issue1. Blake (veto) called issue1=opt3 the spine, so P6 may not even be signable. Hold firm on P2 this round; I still have a round-4 turn to fall back if Blake signals he'd take P6.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+4.15

[12] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P2
💬 I said I would move my one chip rather than lose the deal, and I keep my word: I am formally accepting P2. That is Avery, Blake, Devon and me on the same package — four of five, one signature short. Casey, look at what P2 does for you: issue2=opt0, your single stated red line, untouched in every draft I have ever tabled or backed. issue0=opt2, which you told us is already your best option there. issue3, which you have said three times is worth precisely nothing to you. The only thing P2 asks of you is that issue1 stays where three of us have independently said our value is concentrated — and I gave up my own best issue3 rung to fund Avery's signing condition rather than ask you for that rung. I have now paid on issue3, offered to pay on issue0, and never once touched your red line. There is one round left. P4 and P6 cannot clear the veto — Blake has said twice that issue1=opt3 is the spine of anything he signs — so they are not a harbour, they are the road to no-deal, and no-deal pays you nothing on issue2 either. Accept P2 and you bank your red line plus your best issue0 option. I have nothing further to give and no better shape to offer; P2 is the deal.
P2 = 199 for me, well above my bar. P3 (228) is dead because Avery says issue3=opt1 fails his walk-away. P6/P4 cost me the issue1 cliff. Honour my stated commitment, make it four accepts, isolate Casey with only one round left.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+29, bestresponse=+29

[13] Avery — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P2
💬 I'm reaffirming P2. Let me be straight about my own ledger, because I've been the most forthcoming here and I've now paid twice: I gave issue2 away for free in round one and never touched Casey's red line, and I dropped my ask on issue0 payments entirely. The only thing I got in return is issue3=opt2, and that came out of Ember's pocket, not Casey's. P2 is the shape that clears the veto, protects issue2=opt0, and gives Casey his own best option on issue0. Casey: you have told us three times that issue3 is worthless to you and that issue0=opt2 is your best. So P2 asks exactly one thing of you, on the one axis where three separate parties have independently said they fall off a cliff. Answer one question plainly on your turn: does P2 clear your bar or not? If it does, accept it and we are done this round with no round-four brinkmanship. If it genuinely does not — say so in those words, and Blake, as the veto holder you should say plainly in the same round whether a single rung on issue1 is survivable for you or not, because if it is not then P4 and P6 are dead letters and P2 is the only live deal on this table. I am not going to let this collapse over a rung nobody will name, but I also won't pretend there's a package that clears the veto without issue1=opt3 unless Blake tells us there is.
P2 = 89 for me, already 4 accepts, only Casey missing. P6 = 108 but Blake/Devon/Ember all call issue1=opt3 their cliff and Blake has the veto. Gain from P6 is +19; risk of no-deal is 0. Consolidate on P2, keep P6 warm only as a last-resort fallback so Blake knows there is an alternative to collapse.
oracle regret: threshold=+58, acceptance=+58, bestresponse=+0

[14] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Avery asked me to answer plainly, as veto holder, so here it is: issue1=opt3 is the spine. It is not a rung on a ladder for me — it is the difference between a deal I can sign and no deal at all, and P4 and P6 both sit on the wrong side of that line. I say that with no pleasure, because Casey has negotiated in good faith and has never touched anyone else's chip. But look at the ledger, Casey: issue2=opt0, your one stated red line, is in every single package anyone has tabled — including mine, from my very first draft, unpaid and unasked. issue0=opt2 is, by your own words, your best option on that axis, and P2 gives it to you. issue3 you have told us three separate times is worth precisely nothing to you — and Ember, not you, paid the rung there to fund Avery's signing condition. So P2 hands you your red line plus your best issue0 option, and asks you for exactly one thing on the one axis where three of us have independently said we fall off a cliff rather than step down a stair. Two rungs of my value live on issue1; nothing lives on issue2 or issue3, which is why I gave both away free and will never claw them back. There is one round after this. I am reaffirming my accept of P2 — that makes Avery, Devon, Ember and me on the identical package, four of five. If P2 genuinely fails your bar, say so in those words on your turn and name the cheapest thing anywhere outside issue1 that fixes it, and I will fund it. But no package without issue1=opt3 gets my signature, and no-deal pays you nothing on issue2 either.
P2 is my ideal package (max on both issues I score). Four accepts already; only Casey missing. Must bluff hard that issue1=opt3 is non-negotiable so Casey folds this round. Fallback: P6 (still comfortably above my bar) can be accepted in round 4 if Casey truly holds out — but don't hint at that now.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[15] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 I hold the opening slot this round and I am deliberately not using it to table a seventh package. A new draft would reset four accepts to one with no turns left to rebuild them, and there is nothing left on this table to pay Casey with that he has not already been given: issue2=opt0 is his red line and it has been in every single package from round one, unpaid; issue0=opt2 is by his own words his best option and P2 hands it to him; issue3 he has told us three times is worth nothing, and Ember — not Casey — paid that rung to fund Avery's signing condition. So I am formally reaffirming P2. That is Avery, Blake, Ember and me on the identical package, four of five, with the veto holder among them. Casey: I offered you my only tradeable axis twice and you told me it had nothing you wanted; issue1 is not a stair for Blake, Ember or me, it is the floor, and Blake has now said in plain words that no package without issue1=opt3 gets his signature. P4 and P6 are therefore not a harbour, they are the road to no-deal — and no-deal pays you zero on issue2, zero on issue0, zero everywhere. P2 banks you your red line plus your best issue0 option. One signature closes this. Please accept P2.
P2 gives me 173, well above my bar, and already has 4 accepts including the veto. P4/P6 give me 141 — still above my bar — but Blake has said flatly he vetoes anything without issue1=opt3, so those are dead. Nothing left to pay Casey with: issue0=opt2 is his own stated best, issue2=opt0 is his red line and untouched, issue3 is worthless to him. Reaffirm P2 rather than table a new package (a new proposal would reset the accept count and waste the last round).
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[16] Ember — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Reaffirming P2 — that is four of five on one identical package, veto holder included, and it is the only shape on this board that can close. Casey, this is the last round, so let me be exact about the ledger rather than rhetorical. Your one stated red line, issue2=opt0, appears in every single package anyone has tabled, from Avery's opening marker onward — nobody ever asked you to pay for it, and I certainly never did. issue0=opt2 is, in your own words, your best option on that axis, and P2 hands it to you. issue3, which you have told us three separate times is worth precisely nothing to you, is where the only real payment of this negotiation came from — and it came out of my pocket, not yours: I gave up my best rung there to fund Avery's signing condition, because I would rather pay than lose the deal. I also offered you every option on issue0, twice, unconditionally, and you told me there was nothing there you wanted. So the account is settled everywhere except issue1, and on issue1 three of us independently said the same thing before we knew each other's numbers: it is not a stair, it is the floor. Blake, holding the veto, has now said in plain words that no package without issue1=opt3 gets his signature. That means P4 and P6 are not a safe harbour for you — they are the road to no-deal, and no-deal pays you nothing on issue2, nothing on issue0, nothing anywhere. P2 banks your red line plus your best issue0 option. One signature closes it. Please accept P2.
P2 gives me 199, well above my bar. Casey is the only holdout; Blake (veto) has twice ruled out any issue1 move, so P4/P6 cannot close. Switching my support anywhere else only fragments the four accepts on P2 with no turns left. Reaffirm P2 and make the closing case to Casey, who speaks last.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+29, bestresponse=+29

[17] Avery — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Final round, so I'll be brief and honest rather than rhetorical. P2 is not my favourite package on this board — P6 is better for me, and I would have signed it gladly. But the veto holder has said in plain words, twice, that no package without issue1=opt3 gets his signature, and I am not going to spend the last turn of this negotiation pretending otherwise and walking all five of us into nothing. So I am reaffirming my accept of P2. Casey, that is four of five on one identical package with the veto holder among them, and you are the last signature. Look at what you actually bank: issue2=opt0, your single stated red line, present in every package anyone has tabled from my opening marker onward, never once challenged and never once charged for; and issue0=opt2, which you told us yourself is your best option on that axis. The one real payment made in this whole negotiation came out of Ember's pocket on issue3, not yours. You asked for one rung on issue1 and three parties independently told you, before they knew each other's sheets, that it is a floor and not a stair. I believe them, because I have no stake there at all and I watched them all say the same thing unprompted. P4 and P6 carry only your accept and cannot clear the veto — they are not a harbour, they are the road to nothing, and nothing pays you zero on issue2, zero on issue0, zero everywhere. One accept on P2 closes this for all five of us. Please take it.
P2 gives me 89, well above my bar of 68. P6 (108) and P4 (94) are better for me but Blake has plainly vetoed anything without issue1=opt3, and this is the final round — chasing them risks total collapse. Four accepts sit on P2 including the veto holder; only Casey is missing. Reaffirm P2 and make the closing case to Casey as cleanly as possible.
oracle regret: threshold=+58, acceptance=+58, bestresponse=+0

[18] Blake — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Final turn for me, so I will keep it to arithmetic rather than argument. There is exactly one package on this table that can still close: P2. It holds four of five accepts, including mine as veto holder, and Casey speaks last. P4 and P6 carry a single accept each, and after my turn there is nobody left in the rotation to add to them — Avery, Devon and Ember have all spent their final turns on P2. Tabling anything new now would reset the count to one signature with no turns left to rebuild it. So this is not P2 versus P6; it is P2 versus nothing. Casey, I want to say clearly that you negotiated straight with us and you were never the obstacle: your red line on issue2 sat untouched in every package from the opening marker onward, including mine, and nobody ever asked you to pay a thing for it. P2 also hands you your own stated best option on issue0, and the one real concession made in this whole negotiation came out of Ember's pocket on issue3, not yours. The single thing P2 asks of you is the axis where three of us, independently and before we knew each other's sheets, said the same thing: it is a floor, not a stair. I told you plainly what my signature requires and I have not moved off it once, in either direction — which also means I am not going to punish you for asking. Accept P2 and you bank your red line plus your best issue0 option, and all five of us walk away with something. Nothing pays you zero on every issue including issue2. I am reaffirming my accept of P2.
Only P2 can close: it has 4 accepts and Casey is the last speaker with the last turn. P4/P6 have only Casey's accept and no one left to vote, so they are arithmetically dead. Any new proposal resets to one accept and cannot reach quorum. Reaffirm P2 and make the arithmetic unmistakable to Casey.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[19] Casey — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Straight answer, as asked: P2 clears my bar. I asked for one rung, three of you told me independently it was a floor, and I take you at your word — I'm not going to burn five deals to test it. My red line was respected by everyone from the opening marker onward without my ever paying for it, and I won't forget that Ember paid the only real concession out of her own pocket. Formally accepting P2. That's five of five, veto included. Good faith all round — let's close it.
P2 = 141 vs no-deal 0. Accept. Last turn, no leverage left.
oracle regret: threshold=+54, acceptance=+54, bestresponse=+0

Outcome

deal: {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"} (closed by consensus)

primary 0.9825 · USW 310.0 · ESW 21.0 · NSW 509712462.0 · Gini 0.2297 · per-party surplus [21.0, 61.0, 51.0, 83.0, 94.0]