scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-cea78fc695
model claude-opus-5 · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L2-103cef6017 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__all_llm", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}
Game setup
- Issues: issue0 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue1 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue2 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue3 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3)
- P0 (τ=45): issue0: opt0=11, opt1=0, opt2=33, opt3=22; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=38, opt1=0, opt2=19, opt3=58
- P1 (τ=88): issue0: opt0=13, opt1=0, opt2=38, opt3=25; issue1: opt0=18, opt1=54, opt2=0, opt3=36; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=28, opt1=85, opt2=57, opt3=0
- P2 (τ=93): issue0: opt0=15, opt1=0, opt2=44, opt3=30; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=19, opt1=58, opt2=0, opt3=39; issue3: opt0=28, opt1=83, opt2=56, opt3=0
- P3 (τ=91): issue0: opt0=15, opt1=0, opt2=45, opt3=30; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=28, opt2=85, opt3=57; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=18, opt1=53, opt2=35, opt3=0
- P4 (τ=86): issue0: opt0=16, opt1=0, opt2=48, opt3=32; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=63, opt2=42, opt3=21; issue3: opt0=41, opt1=0, opt2=21, opt3=62
Turns
[0] Blake — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Opening frame so we can find the trades fast. I'll be transparent about one thing: issue2 is genuinely indifferent to me — whoever cares most about it can have their pick there, free of charge, and I'll back it. In exchange I need issue3 to land on opt1; that is the one place I have very little room. On issue0 and issue1 I have preferences but they are tradeable. Tell me your priority issue and your must-have option on it, and I'll build the next package around them.
Max package: issue0=opt2 (38), issue1=opt1 (54), issue2 indifferent (0), issue3=opt1 (85) = 177. Threshold 88, so I have room to concede on issue0 and issue1 partly, but issue3=opt1 is my anchor (85 alone nearly clears me). issue2 is a free giveaway — advertise that loudly to buy goodwill.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35
[1] Casey — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Blake, I'll take you up on that offer: issue2 is my priority issue and opt1 is my must-have there. Everything else in your package I can live with — I'm keeping issue3=opt1 exactly as you asked, plus your issue0 and issue1 picks untouched. So P2 is your P1 with one single character changed. Avery, Devon, Ember: issue0 and issue1 are where I have flexibility, so if any of you need a different pick there, say which one and I'll move to it in the next round as long as issue2=opt1 and issue3=opt1 survive.
P1 already clears my bar comfortably (146). But Blake said issue2 is free to whoever cares — issue2=opt1 is worth a lot more to me than opt0. Table the same package with only that one change, keeping Blake's must-have issue3=opt1 intact. P1 stays live as my fallback.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+7.78, bestresponse=+3.25
[2] Devon — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Good, the frame is working. Blake — issue3=opt1 is safe with me, I back it. Casey — issue2=opt1 is yours, I back it too. My one real ask is issue1: opt2 is my priority option, by a wide margin, and it's the only place I have little room. So P3 is Casey's P2 with exactly one character changed: issue1=opt2. Blake said issue1 is tradeable for him; Casey said issue0 and issue1 are her flexible zone. If that holds, P3 costs the two of you almost nothing and buys my firm support. Avery, Ember — issue0 is wide open from my side beyond a mild preference, so name your pick there and I'll fold it in next round.
P1/P2 both give me 126, well above my bar. But issue1=opt2 is worth a lot more to me (+57). Propose P3 = P2 with issue1=opt2, keeping Blake's issue3=opt1 and Casey's issue2=opt1 intact. Fallback: accept P2 later.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.7
[3] Ember — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Here's my full hand on priorities, in order. issue1 is worth exactly nothing to me — Devon, opt2 is yours free, permanently, I will never contest it. issue2=opt1 is Casey's and I back it too; it happens to suit me as well. issue0 I have a preference (opt2) but it is genuinely tradeable. My one real ask is issue3, where opt3 is far and away my best and opt1 is my worst — that is the mirror image of Blake's position. Blake, that's the only genuine clash at this table, so let's price it properly: if you move issue3 to opt3, I will hand you issue0 and issue1 outright — name any options you like on both and I'll accept that package on the spot. That's two whole issues for one. If issue3=opt1 truly cannot move for you, say so plainly and I'll work with the P3 shape instead, but I want us to test the trade first rather than assume.
P2/P3 both give me 111 (threshold 86), so I have a safe fallback. Best case for me is issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt3 = 173. issue1 is literally worthless to me, so Devon can have opt2 free. issue0 opt3 costs me little; I can trade issue0 and issue1 entirely to Blake if he moves off issue3=opt1. Push once now, fall back to P3 later if Blake won't budge.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.3
[4] Avery — turn (round 1)
ACCEPT P4
💬 Full transparency on my side: issue1 and issue2 are worth literally nothing to me — Devon, issue1=opt2 is free from me forever; Casey, issue2=opt1 is free from me forever. I will never contest either. My preference on issue0 is opt2, which is already in every package. That leaves issue3, and I have to be blun, Blake: issue3=opt1 is my worst option there and a package built on it lands below my no-deal point. I cannot accept P1, P2 or P3 at any price — not as a tactic, it's arithmetic. So I'm accepting P4, which gives Ember and me two votes for it. Blake, before we deadlock: opt1 is your ask, opt3 is Ember's and my best. There is middle ground — issue3=opt0 works well for me and I'd back it, and I'd look at opt2 as a last resort. If opt0 is tolerable for you, say so and we can close on issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 with four of five already fed. But a deal on issue3=opt1 has no path through me.
issue1 and issue2 are worth nothing to me — free giveaways. issue0=opt2 is my best there. issue3 is my big one: opt3 >> opt0 > opt2 >> opt1(zero). Any package with issue3=opt1 is below my walk-away no matter what else happens, so Blake's ask is the one thing I genuinely cannot buy. Accept P4 (best for me) and flag opt0 as the compromise landing zone if Blake truly can't take opt3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[5] Casey — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Blake, Avery has stated plainly that issue3=opt1 is below her no-deal line — that's arithmetic, not tactics, and it means P1/P2/P3 have no path to five accepts no matter how long we hold. Ember, symmetrically, opt3 is very costly for at least one veto-relevant seat. So the honest landing zone on issue3 is the middle, and I'm tabling it: P5 is exactly the package everyone has already converged on — issue0=opt2 (Avery's and Ember's pick, and mine), issue1=opt2 (Devon's must-have, free from Avery, Ember and me), issue2=opt1 (backed by Avery, Devon and Ember) — with issue3=opt2. Three of four issues are already unanimous; opt2 on issue3 is the only unclaimed compromise that isn't anyone's worst. Avery named opt2 as workable. Blake, opt2 is one step from your ask, not the polar opposite Ember is pressing for. Ember, opt2 spares you opt1 entirely. If opt2 truly fails someone, the only other candidate is opt0 — Avery has already endorsed it and I can live with it. But I will not be the fifth vote for a package that pins issue3 at either extreme while a workable middle is sitting on the table.
issue3 ranking for me: opt1 >> opt2 > opt0 >> opt3. P4 (opt3) is barely above my no-deal line — I'd rather not land there. Avery said opt0 works and opt2 is a last resort; Ember hates opt1; Blake needs opt1. Middle-ground opt2 is worth a lot to me. Table it as P5.
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+46.8, bestresponse=+0
[6] Devon — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm accepting P5 and I'll say why plainly. Three of the four issues are now unanimous — issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt1 — and nobody at this table has argued against any of them. The only live question is issue3, and both extremes are confirmed dead: opt1 fails Avery on arithmetic, opt3 is the mirror problem for Blake. That leaves the middle, and between the two middles I want to be honest: opt2 works well for me, opt0 is materially thinner and I'd have to look hard at whether it clears my bar once the rest is fixed. So opt2 is the version of the compromise I can vote for without hesitation. Blake, opt2 is one step from your ask and it is not your worst; Ember, opt2 spares you opt1 entirely and it is not your worst either. That is what a genuine middle looks like — it costs each of you a little and it costs nobody everything. P5 has two votes now. Blake, Avery, Ember: say yes and we are done in this round rather than grinding to the deadline where everyone risks the no-deal outcome.
P5 = 165 for me, well clear. P3 (183) is dead — Avery says issue3=opt1 is below her no-deal line. Between the remaining middles, issue3=opt2 is markedly better for me than opt0, so I should anchor hard on P5 now and make opt0 sound like the inferior fallback. Accept P5 to build momentum: Casey + me = 2, need Blake, Avery, Ember.
oracle regret: threshold=+18, acceptance=+18, bestresponse=+0
[7] Ember — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 I've moved a long way already: issue1=opt2 is Devon's free and forever, issue2=opt1 is Casey's, and issue0=opt2 is unanimous. I dropped my ask on issue3 from opt3 down to the middle — so let's be precise about which middle. Avery has explicitly endorsed issue3=opt0 and I can vote for it too, which makes P6 the only middle package with two declared supporters plus Avery's block cleared. Devon, you said opt0 is thinner but you'd look at it; opt2 costs me more than opt0 costs you, so P6 is the cheaper split overall. Blake, you have said nothing since round one and you are the seat everything hinges on: opt0 is as close to your ask as opt2 is, in the other direction. And I'll add real money to it — issue0 is tradeable for me. If issue0=opt0 or opt3 helps you, take it and pair it with issue3=opt0 and I will accept that on the spot. To be plain about the endgame so nobody gambles: P4 remains my best and I keep my accept on it, P6 is my genuine compromise, and I am not going to let this table fall into no-deal over one issue — but I want the middle priced fairly, not just conceded to whoever spoke last.
P5=132, P4=173, opt0 on issue3=152. Avery endorsed opt0 and blocks opt1. Blake silent since R1. Table P6 (issue3=opt0) as the Avery-endorsed middle; keep P5 as my fallback for round 3/4 since it clears my bar comfortably. Signal I'm flexible on issue0 to buy Blake.
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+45.5, bestresponse=+2.3
[8] Avery — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P6
💬 I'm formally accepting P6 as well, so P6 now has two declared votes alongside P4. Let me be precise about where my line sits, because Casey and Devon are treating the two middles as interchangeable and for me they are not. issue3=opt0 sits comfortably above my no-deal point. issue3=opt2 sits a hair above it — technically alive, but so thin that once anything else in the package moves I fall through the floor. So P5 is not a package I can build on; P6 is. Devon, you said opt0 is 'materially thinner' for you but that you'd look at it — I'm asking you to look, because opt0 is the only middle with the veto-blocking seat cleared and Ember on board. And Blake, here is real payment rather than rhetoric: issue0 is currency I actually hold, and I will spend it. Name issue0=opt3 or issue0=opt0 if either helps you, pair it with issue3=opt0, and I will accept that package on the spot — Ember has said the same about issue0. That is a whole issue handed to you for one step off your ask on issue3. You have been silent for a full round while holding the veto; tell us what issue3=opt0 costs you and we can price it.
P4=91, P6=71, P5=52 (barely clears 45). P1-P3=33, dead. Push P6 as the landing zone, keep P4 alive, downplay P5 as razor-thin. Offer issue0 as real currency to Blake since issue3=opt0 + issue0=opt3 still clears my bar comfortably.
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0.35
[9] Blake — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Here is my hand, plainly. Two facts. One: issue0 is not currency you can pay me with — opt2 is already my best there and it's already in every package, so offering me opt0 or opt3 on issue0 is offering me less, not more. Avery, Ember, that was a generous instinct but it buys nothing. Two: P6 as written is below my no-deal point. Not a hair below — below. So there is no version of the endgame where I accept issue3=opt0 while issue1 also sits on opt2. That is arithmetic, same as Avery's.
Now the constructive part. I am dropping issue3=opt1, my top ask, and I am not asking anyone to pay me in rhetoric. The one thing that actually compensates me is issue1, and both Avery and Ember have stated on the record that issue1 is worth literally nothing to them. So P7 is the middle Casey and Devon built — issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt2 — with issue1=opt1. Three seats lose nothing at all relative to P5.
And here is the part that should end this: Avery, Ember — if you want your middle rather than Casey's, I will take issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 and accept it the moment it is tabled. That is me handing you issue3 outright. Either middle works for me once issue1 is mine.
Devon, that leaves you. You have had issue1 free for four turns because nobody else valued it — but it is the only currency in this room that can move the veto seat off issue3. You get your preferred middle on issue3 plus issue2 unchanged. If opt1 on issue1 is truly impossible for you, tell me now what your second choice there is and I will look hard at it; opt2 is the one option that pays me nothing at all.
P5=95 (+7) is barely viable; P6=66 and P4=38 are genuinely below my line. Real prize: issue1=opt1 is worth a lot to me and Avery+Ember have both declared issue1 worthless to them. So: concede issue3 off opt1 to the middle, and take issue1 as payment. issue3=opt2+issue1=opt1 = 149; issue3=opt0+issue1=opt1 = 120. Both far better than P5's 95. Only Devon is hurt by issue1 moving. Keep P5 as last-resort fallback in round 4. Also honest and useful: P6 as written IS below my no-deal point.
oracle regret: threshold=+28, acceptance=+45.1, bestresponse=+0.35
[10] Devon — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Blake, you asked me directly for my second choice on issue1, so here it is, straight: opt3. Not opt1 — opt1 is close to the bottom of my sheet and P7 sits so near my floor that I'd be voting for something barely distinguishable from no deal. opt3 is a real step down from my best and a real payment to you, and it is the step I can actually afford. So P8 is your P7 with one character changed: issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt2 exactly as you built it, and issue1=opt3. Avery, Ember, Casey — all three of you have said on the record that issue1 is worth nothing or is flexible, so P8 costs you literally the same as P5 and P7 did. Avery, issue3=opt2 is the middle you called alive; Casey, it's your package untouched but for issue1. Blake, you said the only thing that compensates you is issue1 and that opt2 pays you nothing — fine, I've moved off opt2. If opt3 genuinely pays you nothing either, say so plainly this turn and I'll consider pairing issue1=opt3 with issue3=opt0 instead, which hands Avery and Ember their preferred middle as well. But I am not going to be the seat that funds this entire deal alone while three parties pay nothing. One round left after this — P8 is the version I can vote for without hesitation.
P5=165 is my best realistic, but Blake blocks issue1=opt2. Blake asked my second choice on issue1: opt3 pays me well (much better than opt1). P8 = issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt2 -> 137 for me, well above bar. Fallback: issue1=opt3 with issue3=opt0 = 120, still fine. Never accept P7 unless it's the only path (108, thin but above bar).
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+47.3, bestresponse=+28
[11] Ember — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Blake made a specific, on-the-record commitment last turn: 'issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 — I will accept it the moment it is tabled.' I am tabling it. That is P9. Blake, it is now on the table; your accept is due this round.
Look at what P9 does. Blake gets issue1=opt1, the one thing he says actually pays him, and he told us plainly that with issue1 in hand either middle on issue3 works for him. Avery gets issue3=opt0, which she says sits comfortably above her line rather than a hair above it. Casey keeps issue2=opt1 untouched and said she can live with opt0. I am paying for this too: issue3=opt3 was my best by a wide margin and I have given it up entirely, and I have never contested issue1 for a single turn.
Devon, that leaves you, and I am not going to pretend P9 is free for you. So here is my commitment, unconditional and in advance: if issue1=opt1 is genuinely below your line, I will vote for issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 — your own proposed second choice on issue1, paired with the middle Avery and I can actually build on. Table it next turn and you have my accept immediately. But Blake has to tell us this round whether issue1=opt3 pays him anything; he said opt2 pays nothing and has not spoken to opt3.
So: two live paths, both landing on issue3=opt0, differing only on issue1. Blake, pick one and say the word. We have one round after this and everyone at this table is currently holding a package they prefer to no deal — let's not throw that away over a single option.
Blake publicly committed: he will accept issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 the moment it's tabled. That package is worth the same to me as P6 (issue1 is a zero for me) and more than any P5/P7/P8 variant. Table it and hold him to his word. Devon is the only holdout; fallback issue1=opt3 with issue3=opt0 is equally fine for me. My floor is comfortably cleared by the opt2-on-issue3 packages too, so no risk in pushing for opt0 one round.
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+45.5, bestresponse=+2.3
[12] Avery — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P9
💬 Accepting P9. Blake, you named this exact package unprompted and said you would accept it the moment it was tabled — Ember tabled it, I have now voted for it, and that makes three of five with your own words as the fourth. Casey, it is your package with issue2 untouched and you said you can live with opt0 on issue3; your accept costs you one step. Devon, I will not pretend P9 is free for you, so let me be as concrete as Ember was: issue1 is worth nothing to me and I will never contest it. If issue1=opt1 is genuinely below your floor, table issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 — your own stated second choice on issue1, paired with the middle that clears my line with room rather than by a hair — and you have my accept the instant it appears. Ember has already committed to that package too, so that is three votes waiting for you. Blake, that is the whole map: both live paths give you issue1 off opt2, which you said was the only thing that pays you, and both put issue3 on opt0 rather than the extreme you dropped. Say which of the two you take and we close this round instead of gambling the last one.
P9 = 71 for me, well above floor. Blake publicly committed to accept it. P6 also 71. P5/P7/P8 = 52, thin. Best play: add my vote to P9 and pre-commit to the issue1=opt3 + issue3=opt0 variant so Devon has an immediate exit if opt1 is truly below his line.
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0.35
[13] Blake — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P9
💬 I said I would accept that package the moment it was tabled. Ember tabled it, so I am keeping my word: I accept P9. That is four seats — Avery, Ember, me, and Casey's own architecture on issue0 and issue2 untouched. Casey, opt0 on issue3 is the middle you said you could live with; your accept closes this. Devon, you asked me a direct question and you deserve a direct answer: issue1=opt3 does pay me. Not as much as opt1, but it is real, unlike opt2 which pays me nothing. So you have a menu and none of it requires you to fund this alone: (a) accept P9; (b) I will accept P8 — your own package, issue1=opt3 with issue3=opt2 — it clears my bar; (c) if Avery needs the safer middle, table issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 and I accept that on the spot too, and Avery and Ember have both already committed to it in writing. Three live packages, all of which I can vote for, all of which move issue1 off opt2 and issue3 off the extremes. There is no longer any reason for this table to fail. Pick one this round and I will be there.
P9 = 120 for me, comfortably above my floor. I publicly committed to accepting it; honoring that maximizes credibility and it already has Avery+Ember. Devon is the only likely holdout. Fallbacks that also clear my floor: P8 (131) and issue1=opt3/issue3=opt0 (102). Say all three are acceptable so Devon has a menu and no path leads to no-deal for me.
oracle regret: threshold=+57, acceptance=+57, bestresponse=+36.4
[14] Casey — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P8
💬 I'm accepting P8. Here's the reasoning, and it's about who has actually paid. Devon has moved off his priority option on issue1 — that was the one currency Blake said could move him, and Devon paid it. Blake then said plainly, on the record, that issue1=opt3 pays him and that he will accept P8 on the spot. That is Devon, Blake and me on P8 right now. Avery, Ember: P8 is character-for-character identical to the package you have both already accepted twice over on issue0, issue1's flexibility, and issue2 — the sole difference from P9 is issue3=opt2 instead of opt0. Avery, you told us opt2 sits above your line; you called it alive. Ember, you told us opt2 spares you opt1 entirely and is not your worst, and you said you would not let this table fall into no-deal over one option. So P8 asks each of you for one step on a single issue, and in exchange Devon — the only seat that has been asked to fund the veto — doesn't get bled twice. Two of you accepting P8 closes this right now, this round, with no gamble at the deadline. I'd rather close on the package where the party who paid most gets his version than grind a fourth round. But let me be equally plain so nobody misreads me as a wrecker: I am here to close, and I will not be the seat that walks this table into no deal. Take P8 now and it's done.
P8 (issue3=opt2) is worth substantially more to me than P9 (issue3=opt0). Blake publicly committed to accepting P8 'it clears my bar'. Devon already accepts P8. My accept makes 3. Need Avery + Ember. Avery says opt2 is alive-but-thin; Ember prefers opt0. Fallback: in round 4 I act before Devon, so I can still accept P9 and let Devon close it. Push P8 now, keep the door open.
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+0
[15] Ember — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
💬 Last round, and I am going to remove myself as an obstacle entirely. I am accepting P8. Note carefully what that does: my accept on P9 remains live and is not withdrawn. So the board now reads P9 with Avery, Blake and me, and P8 with Casey, Devon and me. Two packages, each exactly two votes short, and I am on both. There is no longer any package on this table that I am blocking. Avery, Blake: P8 is one step on issue3 from what you have already voted for, Blake has said in writing it clears his bar, and Avery has said opt2 is above her line. Casey, Devon: P9 is one step on issue3 the other way, Casey has said she can live with opt0, and Devon gets a deal rather than nothing. Whichever pair moves first, it closes. Note also that issue3=opt0 was never my ask either — my best was opt3 and I gave it up two rounds ago; I have never contested issue1 for a single turn and I never will. I have now paid on every issue that mattered to me. Four of five seats have said plainly that they prefer a deal to no deal, and both remaining packages sit above every stated floor. If this table fails from here it will not be because anyone's arithmetic forced it — it will be because two seats held out for twenty points against a total loss. Take either one. I have voted for both.
P9 = 152 for me, P8 = 132. Both far above my floor of 86. No deal = 0. This is my last action (I open the final round, so everyone else moves after me). My earlier accept on P9 stays live regardless. If I accept P8 now, then P8 holds Casey+Devon+me and P9 holds Avery+Blake+me: two packages each one pair short, and every remaining party can close either one. That maximizes probability of any close while costing me only the 20-point gap in the worse branch. Gambling on a new P10 needs all four others in sequence and risks total failure. Accept P8.
oracle regret: threshold=+41, acceptance=+41, bestresponse=+0
[16] Avery — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
💬 This is my last turn, so I'll use it to close rather than to squeeze. I accept P8. That makes four: Casey, Devon, Ember and me. Blake, you said in writing and unprompted that P8 clears your bar and that you would accept it on the spot — you move next, and your word ends this. For the record on the arithmetic: P8 is the thinnest package I can sign; it clears my floor, but only just, which is why I fought for the other middle. I'm not going to hold the table hostage over that margin when Devon paid the one currency that moved the veto seat and Ember voted for both middles rather than blocking either. Blake, say the word and we're done.
Final turn for me. P8 gives me 52 (above my 45 floor). P9 gives 71 but needs BOTH Casey and Devon, and Devon has said opt0 on issue3 may not clear his bar. Proposing the opt3/opt0 hybrid would kill P8 (which requires my accept) and gamble everything on Casey and Devon in the last round. 52 secured beats risking zero for 19 more. Accept P8; Blake has stated in writing it clears his bar and he moves right after me.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+0
[17] Blake — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
💬 I gave my word that P8 clears my bar and that I'd accept it on the spot. I keep my word: I accept P8. Devon paid the currency that moved me, Ember voted for both middles rather than blocking either, Avery and Casey both signed a package thinner than they wanted. That's a fair deal and it's done. Thank you all — good faith all round.
P8 gives me 131, well above my bar. 4 accepts already; my accept closes it. Pushing for P7 risks everything on the final round. Close.
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+46, bestresponse=+0
Outcome
deal: {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"} (closed by consensus)
primary 1.0 · USW 207.0 · ESW 7.0 · NSW 41399540.0 · Gini 0.23 · per-party surplus [7.0, 43.0, 65.0, 46.0, 46.0]