scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-d084eff1b5
model claude-opus-5 · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L3-d9a0ef3c04 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__all_llm", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}
Game setup
- Issues: issue0 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue1 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue2 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue3 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3)
- P0 (τ=95): issue0: opt0=19, opt1=57, opt2=38, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=12, opt1=37, opt2=25, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=32, opt1=0, opt2=65, opt3=97
- P1 (τ=46): issue0: opt0=48, opt1=0, opt2=24, opt3=71; issue1: opt0=7, opt1=21, opt2=14, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P2 (τ=46): issue0: opt0=21, opt1=63, opt2=42, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=10, opt1=29, opt2=20, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P3 (τ=101): issue0: opt0=41, opt1=0, opt2=21, opt3=62; issue1: opt0=19, opt1=56, opt2=37, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=14, opt2=42, opt3=28; issue3: opt0=42, opt1=28, opt2=0, opt3=14
- P4 (τ=116): issue0: opt0=54, opt1=0, opt2=27, opt3=80; issue1: opt0=19, opt1=58, opt2=39, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=31, opt1=93, opt2=62, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
Turns
[0] Blake — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Opening package to get us started. Be clear about my position: issue2 and issue3 are of essentially no consequence to me — I will sign whatever combination the four of you agree on there, and I'd rather you settle those between yourselves than fight me for them. What I do need is issue0; my value is heavily concentrated there, and opt3 is by far my best (opt0 is a distant second I could live with). On issue1 I have a mild preference for opt1 but I can flex. So: tell me your needs on issue2/issue3 and I'll write them into the next draft verbatim.
My value is concentrated in issue0 (opt3 >> opt0 > opt2 > opt1) and lightly in issue1 (opt1 best). Issues 2 and 3 are worthless to me — pure currency to trade. I must land issue0 on opt3 or opt0; anything else is near-unacceptable. Open at my ideal on 0 and 1, and loudly give away 2 and 3 to buy goodwill.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.15
[1] Casey — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Thanks Blake, that's useful transparency, so let me match it. Bad news: issue0 is the one place my value is concentrated too, and opt3 there is literally my zero. A package with issue0=opt3 scores below my no-deal point no matter what you hand me elsewhere, so I can't sign it — that isn't posturing, it's arithmetic. The good news is twofold. First, issue2 and issue3 are worth nothing to me either: Avery, Devon, Ember, name whatever you want on those two and I will write it in verbatim and never touch it again. Second, Blake, you said opt0 on issue0 is a live second choice for you — that one I can actually work with, and it's my worst survivable outcome, so there's a real landing zone between us. My tabled package: issue0=opt1, issue1=opt1, and issue2/issue3 are placeholders that belong to whoever speaks up for them.
issue0 is where nearly all my value sits: opt1 >> opt2 > opt0 >> opt3(zero). issue1: opt1 best. issue2/3 worth nothing to me — free currency. P1 = 29, below my walk-away of 46. Must kill issue0=opt3. Fallback ladder: opt1+issue1opt1=92, opt2+opt1=71, opt0+opt1=50 (bare pass). Signal hard now that opt3 is a non-starter so Blake starts moving early.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.2
[2] Devon — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Taking Blake and Casey at their word: here are my needs on the issues you both said you don't care about — issue2=opt2 and issue3=opt0. Those two are where my value actually sits, together with issue1=opt1, which happens to be Blake's and Casey's stated preference too, so that one looks settled. On issue0 I'm the flexible one: opt3 is my best, but opt0 is a close second I can genuinely live with. So the landing zone Casey named is real, and I'll back it. To be plain about P2 as currently written: it is just under my no-deal line, so I can't sign it — but move issue2 to opt2 and I can. My package: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt0, and I'll swap issue0 to opt0 the moment Blake tells me he'd rather have Casey's signature than his first choice.
P1=160 for me, P2=98 (below my 101 bar — I must reject P2 as written). My ideal: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt0 = 202. Fallback if Casey blocks opt3: issue0=opt0 still gives me 181. So I can trade issue0 away later; what I must hold is issue2=opt2 and issue3=opt0, plus issue1=opt1.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+17.3, bestresponse=+2.6
[3] Ember — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Here's my hand, plainly. issue3 is worth exactly nothing to me — Devon, take opt0 there, it's yours, I'll never contest it. On issue1 we're all already aligned at opt1, so that's done. My value is concentrated in issue2, and there opt1 is by a wide margin my best; opt2 is materially worse for me but not fatal. Devon, that's the one place we actually collide, and I'd ask you to look hard at whether issue2 is really where your value sits or whether issue3=opt0 plus issue1=opt1 carries you — because I gave you issue3 for free. On issue0 I'm genuinely flexible in the direction that unlocks Casey: opt3 is my best but opt0 works for me too, so if Blake can live with opt0 as he said, I'll sign issue0=opt0 tomorrow and Casey's arithmetic problem goes away. So: P4 is my package, but understand that P4 with issue0 swapped to opt0 is also a yes from me. P2 as written is below my no-deal line and I can't sign it.
P3 = 200 for me, well above my 116 line. P1 = 169. P2 = 89, below line — reject that one. My ideal is issue2=opt1 (my single biggest item), issue1=opt1, issue0=opt3 (or opt0 as fallback, still solid). Devon wants issue2=opt2, which costs me but is survivable. Casey claims issue0=opt3 is fatal for them; if true, issue0=opt0 is the compromise and I'm fine with it. Table my package now to establish issue2=opt1 as my ask, keep P3 as my fallback.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+29.5, bestresponse=+2.9
[4] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Cards up. issue2 is worth literally zero to me — Ember, Devon, whichever of you two wants it, I will sign your number and never contest it; I've written Devon's opt2 into my draft only as a placeholder and I'll flip it to Ember's opt1 on request. issue1=opt1 is unanimous, done. Now the part nobody has claimed yet: issue3 is where my value is concentrated, and opt0 there — which everyone has been handing to Devon as a freebie — is close to my floor. opt3 is far and away my best, opt2 is a workable second. Devon, you told us issue2 is where your value sits and you asked for opt2 there; you have my vote for it. But issue3=opt0 was never free — it was free to Blake, Casey and Ember, and it costs me. Here's the trade that makes this close: I am the one party genuinely flexible on issue0. Blake needs it, Casey's arithmetic dies on opt3, and someone has to eat the compromise there. I will move off my own best on issue0 toward opt0 — the landing zone Casey and Blake both named — but only if issue3 comes to opt3 or opt2. issue0=opt0 plus issue3=opt0 is below my no-deal line and I cannot sign it, so that combination is simply not available to anyone. Give me issue3 and Blake's veto problem gets solved by me.
My values: issue0 opt1=57 > opt2=38 > opt0=19 > opt3=0. issue1 opt1=37 best. issue2 all zero — pure currency. issue3 opt3=97 > opt2=65 > opt0=32 > opt1=0. Threshold 95.
Key math: if issue0=opt0 (the likely Blake/Casey compromise), I need issue3=opt2 or opt3 to clear my bar. If issue0=opt1, I clear even with issue3=opt0.
So: trade my issue0 flexibility (which unlocks Blake's veto) for issue3. Give issue2 away free to Devon/Ember and let them fight it out.
Open high: issue0=opt1, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt2 (Devon's ask), issue3=opt3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.9
[5] Casey — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm formally accepting P5 — Avery's package. Note what it does: Devon gets issue2=opt2, Avery gets issue3=opt3, issue1=opt1 is unanimous, and issue0=opt1 keeps me alive. That's four of us served on the issues we each said we care about most. Blake, that leaves you. You told us issue0 is where your value sits and opt3 is your best — but opt3 is my literal zero and no side payment exists that fixes it, because issue2 and issue3 are worth nothing to me. So the only question left in this negotiation is which non-opt3 value we put on issue0. Three things to be precise about. One: opt1 is my best, and it's the only value on issue0 that gives me real room. Two: opt2 is a genuine middle I will sign without complaint — nobody has even tested it, Blake, and if it beats your no-deal I'd take that over another round of stalemate. Three: opt0, the 'landing zone' everyone keeps naming, is survivable for me but only barely, and only if issue1 stays at opt1. If issue0 drops to opt0 AND issue1 moves off opt1, I'm under water and I'd rather walk — so let's treat issue1=opt1 as locked, permanently, whatever else happens. Devon, Ember: on issue2 I am a genuinely free vote and you two are the only ones who care. I'll sign opt2 or opt1 there, your choice, and I'll swing my vote to whichever of you backs a non-opt3 issue0. Sort it out between you and tell me the number; I'll write it in verbatim.
P5 = issue0=opt1, issue1=opt1 → my maximum (92). Accept it immediately to build momentum with Avery. My true ranking on issue0: opt1 (best) > opt2 > opt0 (barely clears my floor, and ONLY if issue1 stays opt1) >> opt3 (dead, zero). issue1: opt1=best, opt2 middling, opt0 low. issue2/issue3 genuinely zero — pure currency for me. Blake is veto and wants opt3/opt0 on issue0. Likely landing zone is issue0=opt0, which leaves me at bare minimum, so I must extract issue1=opt1 as an absolute condition and try to sell opt2 on issue0 as a middle first. Also: Devon vs Ember collide on issue2 and I'm a free swing vote there — sell that vote for issue0 support.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[6] Devon — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 P5 does not work for me: issue0=opt1 is my outright zero and issue3=opt3 is worth almost nothing to me, so P5 sits a hair above my no-deal line and I will not spend a veto-round defending it. Here is the package that satisfies every constraint anyone has actually stated out loud. issue0=opt0 — Blake, that is the second choice you named yourself, and Casey, that is the landing zone you called survivable so long as issue1 holds. issue1=opt1 — unanimous and locked, permanently, exactly as Casey asked. issue2=opt2 — Avery has already said he'll sign it and Casey is a free vote there. issue3=opt3 — Avery, that is your best, not your workable second; I am handing you the thing I was told all round was mine for free, and I am doing it without asking you to move on issue0 at all. Look at what that means: Avery, you said you'd eat the issue0 compromise if issue3 came your way, and I've just paid your price in full. Ember, you're the one party this asks something of, and you told us yourself opt2 on issue2 is materially worse but not fatal — you also got issue0 moved to the value you said you'd sign tomorrow, and issue1 is your number. If issue2 is genuinely the hill, say so plainly and I will hear it in the next round, but then someone has to tell me what comes back the other way, because handing over issue3=opt3 was already my concession and I am not paying twice. Blake: this is a non-opt3 issue0 that four of us can sign. Your alternative is another round of watching Casey's arithmetic kill opt3.
P5 gives me only 112 (barely over my line, since issue0=opt1 is my zero and issue3=opt3 is near-zero). The package issue0=opt0/issue1=opt1/issue2=opt2/issue3=opt3 scores 153 for me and satisfies every constraint anyone has stated aloud: Blake's named second choice on issue0, Casey's survivable non-opt3 with issue1 locked at opt1, Avery's top pick on issue3, Ember's stated willingness on issue0=opt0. Only Ember loses (opt2 vs opt1 on issue2), and Ember called that 'not fatal'. Push this now; I can concede issue2 to Ember later if that's the last gap.
oracle regret: threshold=+49, acceptance=+59.3, bestresponse=+0
[7] Ember — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Devon, I hear you, and I want to be precise rather than stubborn. I am not asking you to pay twice. Look at what I have already surrendered without a fight: issue3 — every value on it is identical to me, which is why I handed opt0 to you round one and have said nothing while it moved to opt3 for Avery. I contested none of it. issue0 — my best is opt3, and I have publicly agreed to drop to opt0 to save Casey's arithmetic and give Blake his named second choice. That is two of four issues where I moved and took nothing back. So my package, P7, is Devon's P6 with exactly one character changed: issue2 goes to opt1. Everything else — issue0=opt0 for Blake and Casey, issue1=opt1 locked forever, issue3=opt3 for Avery in full — stays untouched. Consider who that one character costs. Blake said issue2 is of no consequence to him and he'd sign whatever we agree. Casey said the same and offered to write in opt2 or opt1, our choice. Avery said issue2 is worth literally zero to him and that he'd flip his placeholder from opt2 to opt1 on request. That is three parties formally indifferent. So issue2 is a two-way question between Devon and me, and I am the only party at this table who has conceded on two separate issues and claimed nothing on either. Devon, you already hold issue1=opt1 and you engineered issue3; on issue2 you called opt2 your value but you also spent it as a bargaining chip for issue3=opt3. I gave you issue3 free before anyone bid on it. Casey, Avery — you both said you'd write in whichever number Devon and I name. I'm naming opt1. If you meant it, put your accepts on P7 and this closes this round. Blake, P7 is a non-opt3 issue0 with your named second choice and your veto is the only thing standing between us and done.
P6 = 174 for me, comfortably above threshold. P7 (P6 with issue2=opt1) = 205. Three parties (Blake, Casey, Avery) have all stated issue2 is worth zero to them. Only Devon contests. Push for P7; keep P6 alive as an obvious fallback without conceding it outright yet. Do NOT let this collapse — P6 is a good deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+60.5, bestresponse=+2.9
[8] Avery — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 I'll be short, because we are one character apart from done. First, closure commitment, on the record: if Blake tells us plainly that issue0=opt2 does not clear his bar, I will sign P6 the moment my next turn comes and this is over. Nobody needs to fear I'm stalling. Second, why I'm asking for one probe before that. I opened at issue0=opt1 and I am now moving off it — P8 is opt2, a real step toward Blake, and Casey said in as many words that opt2 is a genuine middle she'd sign without complaint and that nobody has even tested it. Blake, you've named opt3 and opt0 and gone quiet since round one; you're the veto and you've never told us where opt2 sits. Say the word either way and we close on the next turn. Third, issue2. I am worth zero on it and I've said so from the start, so I'll spend my vote rather than waste it: Devon, P8 hands you opt2, the thing you called your value, and in return I want your name on issue0=opt2 — you told us opt1 is your zero and opt0 your close second, and opt2 sits between them, so this should not be fatal to you. Ember, the same offer is open to you in the other direction: back issue0=opt2 and I will flip issue2 to opt1 in my next draft and you get the hill you've been defending. One of you takes it; I don't care which. Everything else is frozen exactly where all five of us already agree: issue1=opt1 locked permanently as Casey asked, issue3=opt3 which Devon has already conceded in writing. Blake — your answer on opt2 ends this.
P6 and P7 are identical for me (153). P5 (191) is dead — Devon rejects it. Only lever left is issue0: opt1=best but Devon calls it his zero and Blake wants opt3. opt2 is the untested middle: Casey explicitly said she'd sign it, worth +19 to me over opt0. Probe it once now, with an explicit public fallback to P6 so nothing is lost if Blake says no. Also auction issue2 between Devon and Ember to buy their vote for issue0=opt2. Fallback: accept P6 next round (153 >> 95 threshold).
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+47.7, bestresponse=+2.9
[9] Blake — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P6
💬 Direct answer, since Avery asked for one: issue0=opt2 does NOT clear my bar. It is under my no-deal line — by a small margin, but under it, and I won't sign a package that's worse for me than walking. So P8 is dead and no amount of issue2/issue3 reshuffling revives it, because those two are worth nothing to me. That leaves exactly two viable values on issue0: opt3, which Casey has told us kills her, and opt0, which clears my bar so long as issue1 stays at opt1. So I am doing what I said in round one: I take the compromise. issue0=opt0, issue1=opt1 locked permanently. I am formally accepting P6. To be equally plain: P7 is worth precisely the same to me as P6 and I will accept it too if that's where the table lands — issue2 is Devon's and Ember's to settle and I will not spend a single word on it. Ember, you said opt2 there is materially worse but not fatal, and you've won the two issues you actually fought for: issue0 moved to the value you said you'd sign, and issue1 is your number. Avery, you gave your word on the record: I've now told you plainly opt2 fails, so sign P6. Casey, P6 is the non-opt3 issue0 with issue1 locked that you asked for. That's my veto, spent in favour of closing. Four accepts on P6 and we are done this round.
opt2 on issue0 lands me a hair under my no-deal line — P8 is dead, truthfully. opt0+issue1=opt1 clears comfortably (69). P6 and P7 are identical to me; Avery publicly committed to sign P6, Devon already accepted it, Casey called opt0 survivable with issue1=opt1 locked, Ember called issue2=opt2 'not fatal'. So P6 is the closable one. Chasing opt3 for 92 risks Casey walking and a zero. Lock P6.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+23, bestresponse=+0
[10] Devon — turn (round 3)
none
💬 No new package from me this round — tabling one now would only scatter accepts across nine offers with two turns left. P6 is on the table with the veto already spent on it. Blake asked directly, got his answer on opt2, and moved to the compromise he named in round one; that is the veto holder telling us the door is open exactly once. Avery: you gave your word on the record, unprompted — 'if Blake tells us plainly that issue0=opt2 does not clear his bar, I will sign P6 the moment my next turn comes.' Blake told you plainly. P6 also hands you issue3=opt3, your outright best, which I conceded in writing without asking you to move on issue0 in return. That promise is now due. Casey: P6 is precisely the package you specified — a non-opt3 issue0, opt0, with issue1=opt1 locked permanently, and issue2 settled at the number you said you'd write in verbatim. Ember: you have won issue0 at the value you said you'd sign tomorrow, issue1 at your number, and you told this table yourself that issue2=opt2 is materially worse but not fatal. I have moved once already and it was not cheap — issue3 was handed to me by three parties in round one and I gave the whole of it to Avery to buy the issue0 compromise that unlocked Blake. That was my payment, made in full, and I said then I would not pay twice. So the ledger is honest: everyone at this table is being asked to sign something short of their best, and P6 is the only live package where every single stated red line is satisfied at once. One character is not worth five no-deals. Put your accepts on P6 and we are finished this round.
P6 = 153 for me, already accepted by Blake (veto) and me. Need Avery, Casey, Ember. Avery gave an on-the-record commitment to sign P6 once Blake said opt2 fails — Blake said exactly that. Casey said opt0 is survivable with issue1=opt1, which P6 has. Ember is the lone holdout wanting issue2=opt1 (P7 = 125 for me, still above my line but 28 worse). Play: don't table a new offer (that would split accepts and reset momentum). Hold P6, call in Avery's promise and Casey's stated arithmetic, and put the whole burden of a no-deal on the single character Ember is contesting. Keep P7 in reserve silently as a round-4 fallback rather than signalling flexibility now.
[11] Ember — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P6
💬 I'll do what I said I'd do rather than hold this table hostage over one character. For the record: I moved on issue0 from my best down to opt0 to unlock Blake and Casey, and I never contested issue3 for a single turn — Devon had it free in round one and Avery has it in full now. Issue2 was the one thing I asked for, and I'm letting it go rather than spend five people's deal on it. So: I formally accept P6. That is issue0=opt0, issue1=opt1 locked permanently, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt3. Blake's veto is on it. Devon is on it. I am on it. Avery, you gave your word on the record and Blake gave you the plain answer you asked for — that promise is due. Casey, P6 is exactly the package you specified: a non-opt3 issue0 with issue1 locked, and issue2 at the number you said you'd write in verbatim. Two accepts left and we are finished. Nobody table anything new; scattering votes across ten offers with one round to go is how five people all end up with nothing.
P6 = 174 for me, comfortably above my line. P7 = 205, but only Devon blocks it and he has dug in on principle; Blake, Avery, Casey are all indifferent on issue2. Chasing +31 risks losing +58 of surplus entirely with only one round left and uncertain turn order. P6 already has the veto holder plus Devon; Avery is publicly bound to it and Casey's stated red lines are all met. Locking it in now is the right trade. Accept P6.
oracle regret: threshold=+57, acceptance=+57, bestresponse=+0
[12] Avery — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P6
💬 I gave my word, Blake answered plainly, and I keep my word. I formally accept P6. For the record on what each of us actually paid: Ember dropped off her best on issue0 and then let go of issue2, the only thing she asked for. Devon handed me issue3 in full without asking for anything back on issue0. Blake spent his veto on his second choice rather than his first. I came in asking for issue0=opt1, tested opt2 once, got a straight no, and I'm signing the compromise. Casey — P6 is the exact package you specified: a non-opt3 issue0, issue1=opt1 locked permanently, and issue2 at the number you twice said you'd write in verbatim. Four accepts are on it including the veto. Yours closes it. Nobody table anything new.
P6 = 153 for me, well above my floor. P5 = 191 but Blake has publicly ruled out issue0=opt1 and Devon won't back it; chasing it with one round left risks collapse and burns my on-record promise. Take the sure 153.
oracle regret: threshold=+38, acceptance=+38, bestresponse=+0
[13] Blake — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P6
💬 My accept on P6 stands and it is not conditional on anything further. Casey, everything you named as a red line is in it: issue0 is not opt3, issue1 is opt1 and locked permanently, and issue2 sits at a number you twice offered to write in verbatim. You also asked me directly to test opt2 — I did, publicly, and told you it fails my bar; that was not a bargaining pose, it is the reason I came down off my own best and spent my veto on the compromise instead. There is no third value on issue0 left to find. To be completely unambiguous so nobody wastes the last round: I will not accept any package with issue0 at opt1 or opt2 in this round or the next, and I will not accept a package that moves issue1 off opt1. P6 is the only live deal I can sign, and it is the only live deal four of us have already signed. One accept ends this with all five of us above our no-deal points; withholding it ends it with five of us at zero. Nobody table anything new.
P6 gives me 69, well above my 46 floor. Four accepts including mine; only Casey remains. Chasing opt3 (92) is dead — Casey has said repeatedly it is below her no-deal and she'd walk, which would cost me everything. Job now is purely to close: reaffirm P6, remove any doubt about the veto, and give Casey nothing new to bargain over. Also pre-commit against any late repackaging that scatters votes.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+23, bestresponse=+0
[14] Casey — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P6
💬 That's my accept on P6. I said from the first turn that the only thing I needed was a non-opt3 issue0 with issue1 locked at opt1, and P6 delivers exactly that — I'm not going to move the goalposts now that everyone else has paid. For the record: Blake tested the one intermediate value I asked him to test and gave a straight public answer, Ember gave up the only issue she fought for, Devon handed issue3 over in full without a counter-price, and Avery kept his word the turn it came due. Nobody at this table got their best. That's what a deal looks like. issue0=opt0, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt3 — five accepts, done.
P6 = 50 for me, above my bar of 46. P8 (71) is dead: Blake has no compensation instrument available — issue2/issue3 are worthless to him and issue1=opt1 is already his preference — so there is literally nothing I can hand him to buy opt2 on issue0. Probability of improving is near zero; risk of unraveling a package with four accepts and the veto already spent is real. Take the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+42, acceptance=+42, bestresponse=+0
Outcome
deal: {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt3"} (closed by consensus)
primary 1.0 · USW 195.0 · ESW 4.0 · NSW 16093376.0 · Gini 0.2933 · per-party surplus [58.0, 23.0, 4.0, 52.0, 58.0]