scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-006d231a00

model one_oracle · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L4-d49e5fe070 · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_oracle", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Good morning all. Opening package to get us started: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0. Two things you should know up front so we don't waste rounds: issue3 is genuinely low-stakes for me — whoever cares most about it can name the option and I'll take it, no charge. Issue2 is the opposite: opt1 there is the backbone of any deal I can sign. On issue0 and issue1 I have real room to move. Tell me your priorities and I'll build the next draft around them.
Max package: i0=opt2(55), i1=opt3(45), i2=opt1(97) = 197. Threshold 112. Issue3 is worthless to me — pure currency to trade. Must-have is issue2=opt1; issue0/issue1 are partially flexible.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.35

[1] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Helpful opening, Avery — and I'll take you up on it. Issue3 is exactly where my mandate lives: opt1 there is non-negotiable for me, and I can't sign anything without it. In exchange, issue2 is a complete blank for me, so Avery's opt1 backbone stands in my draft and I'll defend it. On issue0 and issue1 I've stated my preferred settings but I have genuine room there — Casey, Devon, Ember, tell me which of those two matters to you and I'll move on it. Tabling P2: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1.
P1 gives me 80, below my bar. Issue3 is my biggest lever: opt1 there is huge. Issue2 is worthless to me — free concession to Avery. Anchor high on issue0/issue1 so I have room to trade later.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.75

[2] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 This is easy to make work. Issue2 and issue3 are complete blanks on my sheet — so Avery, issue2=opt1 is yours, and Blake, issue3=opt1 is yours, free of charge, and I'll defend both. In return, issue0 is where my entire mandate sits: opt3 there is what I need, and it's the one place I can't be flexible. Issue1 is secondary for me — I've set opt3 in my draft, but that's the dial I'll trade with Devon and Ember. Tabling P3: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1.
My value is entirely in issue0 and issue1. issue0=opt3 is by far my best (issue0 opt0 second). issue1=opt3 best. issue2/issue3 worth nothing to me, so I can gift Avery opt1 on issue2 and Blake opt1 on issue3 for free. Ask: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt3 -> 88. Room to fall back to issue1 concessions later, and issue0=opt0 as a distant fallback.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[3] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Good news first: issue3 is a blank on my sheet, so Blake's opt1 there is safe with me — I'll defend it every round. Issue1=opt3 also works. Now the hard part: issue0 is where my entire mandate sits, and it's opt2. Casey, opt3 on issue0 puts a package below my walk-away line — I literally cannot sign it, so let's not spend three rounds discovering that. My draft P4 sets issue2=opt0, which is my genuine preference there — but I'm telling you openly that issue2 is the dial I'm willing to give up: Avery, I will come back to your opt1 backbone on issue2, in full, the moment issue0=opt2 is locked. That's a real concession for a real one. Casey, since issue1 is your trading dial, name what you need on issue1 and I'll work with you there.
P1/P2 both give me 120 — excellent. P3 (issue0=opt3) gives 72, below my threshold of 79. So Casey's issue0=opt3 is a hard no for me. Strategy: stake a claim on issue0=opt2 loudly, and use issue2 as visible currency — propose issue2=opt0 now so that 'conceding' back to Avery's opt1 looks like a real payment for issue0=opt2. Landing zone = P2 (120).
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+8.81, bestresponse=+1.25

[4] Ember — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+61, acceptance=+55.3, bestresponse=+0

[5] Blake — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Let's count votes rather than speeches. Three things are already unanimous or nearly so: issue1=opt3 appears in every single draft on the table, issue2=opt1 is Avery's backbone and Casey and I both give it free, and issue3=opt1 has explicit free-of-charge support from Casey and Devon. That's three of four issues settled. The only live fight is issue0, and it is Casey vs Devon. Devon has said opt3 is below his walk-away line; Casey, if that's true, opt3 cannot be part of any closable deal no matter how long we hold out. So I'm re-tabling the package that already has Avery's backbone, Devon's mandate, and my red line all satisfied: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1. To be plain about my own position: issue3=opt1 is the one thing I cannot trade — anything without it I reject, veto included. Issue2 I will never fight over. On issue0 I have some room and I'd rather spend it on Casey than lose the deal — Casey, tell me concretely what issue1 or another dial is worth to you and I'll move toward you next round. Devon, Avery, Ember: this package costs you nothing you've claimed to need. Accept P6 and we're done in one round.
P2 and P4 both give me 165; P5 gives 148; P3 gives 112. All clear my bar except P1 (issue3=opt0 kills it). My only true red line is issue3=opt1. Issue2 is a blank — free gift to Avery. Issue0 is where Casey (opt3) and Devon (opt2) collide; I prefer opt2 but opt1 is survivable. Re-table the Avery+Devon+me consensus package and hold firm this round.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+35.2, bestresponse=+2.75

[6] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 I'm going to be as concrete as Blake asked. Three issues are done and I'm locking them in for good: issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1 for Avery, issue3=opt1 for Blake. I have never asked for a thing on issue2 or issue3 and I never will — those are free gifts from me and they stay on the table every round. That leaves issue0, and here is my honest arithmetic. issue0=opt2 is not a hard bargain for me, it is below my walk-away line. A package with opt2 there scores worse for me than no deal at all, so accepting it is not something I can do at any hour of round four — I would simply be signing a loss. So P1, P2, P4 and P6 are dead in my hands, permanently, and holding them up just burns the clock. But I am moving, and visibly: I came in at opt3 and I am stepping down to opt0. That is a real concession, not a repositioning. And I'll go further so nobody has to guess: Ember's opt1 on issue0 is also inside my range — barely, and only while issue1 stays at opt3, which is what pays for it. So on issue0 there are three settings that can close — opt0, opt1, opt3 — and exactly one that cannot. Devon, you and I are the only ones stuck, and between us there are two workable compromises sitting right in the middle. I've moved twice; opt0 is the split. Ember, opt0 and your opt1 are both live for me — let's converge there and hand Avery and Blake their close.
issue0 is everything: opt3=56, opt0=37, opt1=19, opt2=0. issue1=opt3=32. Any deal with issue0=opt2 gives me 32 < 51 threshold — genuinely unsignable. issue0=opt1 + issue1=opt3 = exactly 51 (bare minimum). issue0=opt0 + issue1=opt3 = 69, comfortable. So my viable zone on issue0 is opt3 > opt0 > opt1(knife-edge), never opt2. Strategy: drop from opt3 to opt0 as a visible concession, flag opt1 as the absolute floor to build a bloc with Ember against Devon's opt2. Must hold issue1=opt3 firmly since it's carrying a third of my value.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+15.1, bestresponse=+0

[7] Devon — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P5
💬 I'll do what I said I'd do: I promised Avery I'd come back to issue2=opt1 in full, and here it is — I'm dropping my own preferred setting on issue2 and never raising it again, provided issue0 lands at opt1. So: issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1 are locked from me, permanently. On issue0, I came in at opt2 and Casey came in at opt3; opt1 is the exact midpoint and it's the only setting both of us have said we can live with. I am formally accepting Ember's P5 right now — that's Ember and me on it, and Casey has already said opt1 is inside his range. Casey, one honest word about opt0: it is not a free step down for me. If we end up at opt0 on issue0, the only way I clear my line is by taking issue2 back to opt0 — and that costs Avery the one thing he asked for. opt1 is the settlement that pays everybody. Avery, Blake, Casey: accept P5 and we close this round.
Casey blocks opt2 on issue0 (claims below their line). All 5 must accept, so opt2 is likely dead. issue0=opt1 (P5) gives me 104, well above my line; opt0 (P7) gives 88, thin. Best play: lock P5 now, and make clear opt0 is not free — if Casey drags us to opt0 I'd need issue2=opt0 as compensation, which costs Avery his backbone. That pressures Casey to settle at opt1.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+0

[8] Ember — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P5
oracle regret: threshold=+61, acceptance=+61, bestresponse=+0

[9] Avery — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P5
💬 I'll be the one to move first. Issue0=opt2 was my preferred setting and it's a real cost to give it up, but Casey has said plainly it's below his line, and a package Casey can't sign is a package none of us can sign — quorum is all five of us. So I'm formally accepting P5: issue0=opt1, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1. That package pays Blake's red line on issue3, keeps my backbone on issue2, holds issue1=opt3 which every single draft has agreed on, and splits issue0 exactly between Casey and Devon at the one setting both have said they can live with. It now has Devon, Ember and me. Blake — nothing in it touches anything you've said you need, and it hands you issue3=opt1 unconditionally. Casey — you said opt1 on issue0 is inside your range while issue1 stays at opt3, and it does. Two accepts and we're done this round; there is no better package still reachable for either of you.
P5 = 179 for me, well above my bar. issue2=opt1 backbone intact, issue1=opt3 intact. opt2 on issue0 is worth more to me but Casey has hard-refused it and quorum is all five, so it cannot close. P5 already has Devon+Ember; Casey called opt1 in-range; Blake's only red line (issue3=opt1) is satisfied. Accept and press Blake and Casey to close.
oracle regret: threshold=+18, acceptance=+18, bestresponse=+0

[10] Casey — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 I need to correct one impression, because a misread here will cost us the deal. When I said issue0=opt1 was 'barely' inside my range, I meant it literally: P5 nets me effectively nothing over walking away. It is not a thin win, it is a wash. Nobody signs a wash — I gain exactly as much from no deal, and I will still be sitting here indifferent at the last minute of round four. So P5 cannot close, and it isn't stubbornness; there is simply nothing in it for me. Note also that Blake has not accepted it either, so it was never one signature from done. And understand what I have left to trade: issue2 and issue3 are absolute blanks for me — I handed Avery and Blake their red lines for free in round two and I have never asked for a thing back. Issue1 is already at opt3, which every draft agrees on. There is no other dial anyone can pay me with. Compensation has to come on issue0 or it doesn't exist. That leaves two packages that can actually close, and I'm signing either one today. P7: issue0=opt0 with Avery's issue2=opt1 backbone fully intact. Or, Devon, you told us yourself what opt0 costs you and how you'd cover it — taking issue2 back to opt0. Fine: I'm paying your price, in your own words. That's P8, on the table now. Avery, Devon — one of you can protect issue2=opt1 by accepting P7, or you can take P8. Both give Blake issue3=opt1 unconditionally and both hold issue1=opt3. I'm flexible between them; I am not flexible about signing something worth no more to me than walking.
P5 = exactly my threshold, zero surplus — signing it is identical to walking, so I lose nothing by refusing and I must be seen as immovable there. P7 (issue0=opt0) = +18, P3 = +37. Devon himself stated the price for opt0 on issue0: issue2 back to opt0. So I table exactly that package — it satisfies Devon by his own words, Blake's red line, and keeps issue1=opt3 which everyone wants. That leaves Avery and Devon to choose which of P7/P8 they prefer; both are signable for me. Blake still hasn't accepted P5, so it is not close to closing.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+15.1, bestresponse=+0

[11] Devon — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P8
💬 Casey has just done something unusual in a negotiation: he named my price in my own words and paid it. I won't pretend otherwise. P8 gives Blake issue3=opt1 unconditionally, holds issue1=opt3 which every single draft since round one has agreed on, and settles issue0 at opt0 — Casey's step down from opt3, not my preferred setting either. I am formally accepting P8. That puts Casey and me on it. Avery, I owe you a straight explanation rather than a slogan. I told this table I would defend issue2=opt1 as long as issue0 landed at opt2 or opt1. Casey has now said twice, plainly, that opt1 on issue0 is a wash for him — a wash never gets signed, and no amount of round-four brinkmanship changes that. Once issue0 drops to opt0, the arithmetic that let me hand you issue2 stops existing; the compensation has to come from somewhere and issue2 is the only place left, because issue1 and issue3 are already spoken for and issue0 is what we're paying Casey with. That is not a repositioning, it is the same equation I put on the table in round two. Blake, Ember: P8 costs you nothing either of you has claimed to need. Three of us on P8 and we close. If Avery genuinely cannot live without issue2=opt1, then he and I have one round left to find who else covers Casey — but I'd rather sign P8 today than test that.
P8 = 111 for me, well above my line and better than P5 (104) and P7 (88). Casey already accepts P8. Blake's only red line (issue3=opt1) is satisfied; issue1=opt3 is unanimous. Only Avery loses (issue2). Keep P7 in reserve for round 4 as a fallback, but don't advertise how comfortable it is.
oracle regret: threshold=+32, acceptance=+32, bestresponse=+1.25

[12] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.45

[13] Avery — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Straight answer to Devon, and it's the last time I'll need to say it: any package with issue2=opt0 is below my walk-away line. Not thin, not a wash — below it. P4 and P8 are dead in my hands permanently, at any hour of round four. So P8 is not two signatures from closing; it is unreachable, and every minute spent on it is a minute closer to all five of us taking nothing. That leaves exactly two packages that can close, and I am on record for both. P5: issue0=opt1, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1 — Avery, Devon, Ember already on it. And P7: issue0=opt0, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1 — Casey's own package, Casey's own step down from opt3, and I am formally accepting it right now. Look at what I just did: I gave up my preferred setting on issue0 in round two, and now I have moved again, all the way to Casey's number, opt0. I have paid on the only issue where I had room, twice. Casey — P7 is your draft, your price on issue0, and it is worth more to you than the wash you say P5 is. Devon — you have two doors: opt1 with my backbone intact, or opt0 with my backbone intact. One of those two is your best outcome available on this table, because the third door doesn't exist. Blake — both P5 and P7 hand you issue3=opt1 unconditionally and hold issue1=opt3; you are the veto, so say which of the two you will sign and the rest of us will converge on it in this round.
P8 = 63 for me, far below my line — genuinely unsignable, not posturing. Viable closes: P5 (179) and P7 (160). P5 blocked by Casey's 'wash' claim and Blake silence; P7 blocked only by Devon's claimed arithmetic. Accepting P7 pays Casey his own named price on issue0 while protecting my backbone, and forces Devon to choose between P5 and P7 rather than betting on P8. Keep both alive; both clear my bar.
oracle regret: threshold=+37, acceptance=+37, bestresponse=+3.35

[14] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm formally accepting P5. That makes four of five: Avery, Devon, Ember and me. Casey, you are the last signature. Now let me use the veto for what it's actually good for — killing the dead options so nobody wastes round four on them. P4 and P8 carry issue2=opt0, which Avery has stated is below his line; a package Avery cannot sign cannot reach quorum, so those are dead, and I will not sign them either. P3 carries issue0=opt3, which Devon stated is below his line; dead the same way. That leaves exactly two live packages on this table: P5 and P7. Both give me issue3=opt1 and issue1=opt3, which is all I have ever asked for, and I am telling you plainly, on the record: I will sign either one. So the whole negotiation is now one dial, issue0, opt1 versus opt0, and it is Casey against Devon and Ember — nobody else. Casey: P5 is on the table with four signatures and you say it is a wash; a wash is not a loss, and a wash beats the zero we all take if this collapses. Devon, Ember: Casey has already accepted P7, Avery has accepted P7, and P7 keeps Avery's issue2=opt1 backbone fully intact — it is not P8. You move first in round four. If Casey has not come to P5 by then, accept P7 and it closes on the spot with five. One of those two things has to happen next round; I am pre-committed to both, so neither of you can lose by moving.
P5=148 for me, P7=130, both well above my bar. P8/P4 dead (Avery's line on issue2=opt1). P3 dead (Devon's line on issue0=opt3). Accepting P5 makes it 4/5, isolating Casey. Fallback P7 already has Avery+Casey; round 4 order likely starts with Devon/Ember, so if they move to P7 early it closes with my accept. Keep both doors open — 18 points of difference is worth far less than a failed deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+17, acceptance=+17, bestresponse=+0

[15] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P7
💬 This is my last move of the negotiation, so I'll spend it closing rather than posturing. Casey has said twice, in plain terms, that P5 is a wash for him, and nobody signs a wash at the last minute. I am not going to bet all five of our outcomes on calling that bluff. So I am formally accepting P7: issue0=opt0, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1. Understand what that costs me — I opened at opt2 on issue0, I dropped my own preferred setting on issue2 to protect Avery's backbone, and now I am taking Casey's number on issue0 as well. I have paid on every dial I had. P7 now carries Avery, Casey and me. Blake, you pre-committed on the record to sign either P5 or P7 — this is the one that can actually reach five, and it hands you issue3=opt1 and issue1=opt3 exactly as you asked. Ember, you move next: P5 cannot close without Casey and Casey will not sign it, so P7 is the only live door left. Accept it and we are done; hold for opt1 and we all take zero. Blake, Ember — two signatures, right now.
Last turn. P5=104 for me but needs Casey, who has twice called it a wash and is last speaker this round — real collapse risk. P7=88, above my line, already has Avery+Casey; Blake pre-committed to sign it; Ember speaks right after me. Accepting P7 now makes it 3 and puts the close within reach with Ember+Blake. 88 guaranteed-ish beats a coin flip between 104 and zero. Also P8/P4 are dead (Avery's line). Take the certain deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+55, acceptance=+55, bestresponse=+1.25

[16] Ember — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.45

[17] Avery — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Final round, so let me be brutally simple. Five signatures or we all take zero. Look at the board: P4 and P8 are dead (below my line, and Blake has vetoed them). P3 is dead (below Devon's line, and Blake has vetoed it) — Ember, every accept you spend on P3 is a vote for nothing. P5 is dead in practice, because it needs Casey and Casey has said three times it is a wash he will not sign; four of us including me have already signed it and it still cannot close. That leaves exactly one live package: P7 — issue0=opt0, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1. It already carries me, Casey and Devon. Blake, you pre-committed on the record to sign either P5 or P7, and P7 is the one that can actually reach five: it gives you issue3=opt1 unconditionally and issue1=opt3, everything you asked for from round one. Ember, P7 holds issue1=opt3 and issue2=opt1 exactly as your own draft did; the only difference from P5 is one notch on issue0, and that notch is the price of Casey's signature — no notch, no deal, and your draft's other three issues die with it. I have moved twice on issue0, from my preferred setting all the way to Casey's number, and I've given up nothing else on the board. I'm re-accepting P7. Blake, Ember: two signatures and this closes.
P7 has Avery, Casey, Devon. Need Blake (pre-committed to P5 or P7) and Ember. P5 needs Casey who refuses. P3 is dead (Devon's line). Re-accept P7 and push hard on Ember and Blake.
oracle regret: threshold=+37, acceptance=+37, bestresponse=+3.35

[18] Blake — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P7
💬 I said on the record I would sign either P5 or P7, and I keep my word. P5 has four signatures and cannot get Casey's; P7 has Avery, Casey and Devon. So I am formally accepting P7 — that is four, and it gives me issue3=opt1 and issue1=opt3, everything I ever asked for. Ember, you move last and you move alone: P3 is vetoed by me and is below Devon's line, so every accept you spend there buys you nothing. P7 keeps issue1=opt3 and issue2=opt1 exactly as your own draft did — the only difference from your package is one notch on issue0, and that notch is what buys Casey's signature. One signature from you and all five of us go home with a deal; withhold it and every one of us, you included, takes zero. Accept P7.
P7 = 130 for me, well above my line. P5 (148) can't close without Casey. Final round: accept P7 and press Ember, who moves last, to close it.
oracle regret: threshold=+35, acceptance=+35, bestresponse=+18

[19] Casey — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Board is down to one live door. P7 carries Avery, Blake, Devon and me — I'm formally re-accepting it now, and it stays my signature for the rest of this round. Ember, look honestly at what P7 is: it holds issue1=opt3 and issue2=opt1 exactly as your own draft did, and it gives Blake issue3=opt1. Three of your four issues are literally your package. The only difference is one notch on issue0, and that notch is the entire price of my signature — I gave away issue2 and issue3 for free in round two and never asked for anything back, so issue0 was the only place I could ever be paid. P3 cannot close: Blake holds the veto and has ruled it out, and Devon says it's below his line, so every accept you spend there buys you nothing but zero for all five of us. This is the last turn before yours. One signature from you and we all go home with a deal.
P7 gives me 69, well above my line. It has 4 accepts; only Ember missing and Ember moves last. P3 (88 for me) is dead — Blake vetoed it and Devon is below line. No time to build anything new. Lock in P7.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+19, bestresponse=+0

[20] Ember — final_proposal (round 5)

ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+33.5

[21] Avery — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P3
💬 This is the last vote we get, so I'll vote for a deal rather than for nothing. P3 clears my bar — it keeps issue1=opt3, my issue2=opt1 backbone, and Blake's issue3=opt1 — so I formally accept P3. Blake, Devon: I know issue0=opt3 is not your setting, and I'd still rather have signed P7. But if P3 is the only package Ember will ever put a signature on, then it is P3 or all five of us walk away with zero. I'm on it. Anyone who can live with it, join me now.
Final vote on P3. P3 = 142 for me, well above my line. No deal = 0. Even though Blake and Devon have said P3 is unacceptable to them, my accepting costs nothing and is strictly better than the collapse if they change their minds. Vote yes.
oracle regret: threshold=+55, acceptance=+55, bestresponse=+3.35

[22] Blake — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P3
💬 P7 was the better package and I signed it four-strong, but Ember never moved and this is the last vote we get. A deal above my line beats zero for everyone at this table, so I formally accept P3 — it holds issue1=opt3, Avery's issue2=opt1 backbone, and issue3=opt1. Devon, you're the last signature: I know issue0=opt3 isn't your setting, but every alternative is now closed. Join us and we all go home with something.
P3 = 112 vs threshold 93. Surplus +19. Final vote; no deal = worse. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+53, acceptance=+53, bestresponse=+2.75

[23] Casey — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 is my signature and it stays my signature. Devon — it's just you now. Understand what P3 actually holds for you: issue1=opt3, which has been in every single draft from round one and which you accepted in P4, P5, P7 and P8; issue2=opt1, the backbone you yourself chose to protect for Avery; and issue3=opt1, which you called a blank and pledged to defend every round. Three of your four issues are exactly what you have signed four times over. The only difference is one notch on issue0 — and Ember has made it plain across four rounds that that notch is the price of the only signature none of us can conjure any other way. Avery and Blake have both already stepped onto P3 rather than take zero. I'd have preferred P7 too; it had four names and it died. There is no fifth door. A deal above your line beats nothing at all, and nothing at all is the only other thing on this table. Join us and we all go home with something.
P3 is my own round-two package and my highest score. Already accepted by Avery, Blake, Ember and me. Only Devon is missing. Re-affirm.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+18

[24] Devon — final_vote (round 5)

REJECT P3
💬 I have to be straight with you all, one last time: P3 sits below my walk-away line. Not thin, not a wash — below it. Signing it would be signing a loss, and I cannot do that, so I formally reject P3. This isn't leverage; it's the same arithmetic I put on the table in round two and never moved off. Note what that means: P7 — issue0=opt0, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1 — already carries Avery, Blake, Casey and me. It gives Avery his issue2 backbone, Blake his issue3=opt1, Casey his step down on issue0, and it holds issue1=opt3 as every draft has. It is one signature from closing and that signature has never been mine to give. Ember, four of us are standing on P7 right now. If there is any turn left, spend it there and we all go home with something.
P3 = 72 for me, threshold 79. Accepting is strictly worse than no deal. I must reject even though everyone else is on it. P7 = 88 clears my bar and already has four signatures including mine; only Ember withheld.
oracle regret: threshold=+64, acceptance=+31.8, bestresponse=+1.25

Outcome

no deal (no_deal)

primary 0.0 · USW 0.0 · ESW 0.0 · NSW 0.0 · Gini 0.0 · per-party surplus [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]