scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-2896eb00b9

model one_oracle · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L1-19dae4b672 · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_oracle", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Good morning all. Let me put a complete package on the table to get us started — P1: issue0=opt1, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt1. I'll be candid about where I can move: issue2 matters least to me, and I have some room on issue1. Issue0 and issue3 are where my value is concentrated. Tell me your priority issues and I'll build the next draft around them.
Max package: i0=opt1(91), i1=opt3(67), i2=opt0(35), i3=opt1(75) = 268. Threshold 125, so I have lots of room to concede later. Open high but signal flexibility on issue2 (my cheapest issue: spread only 35).
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.3

[1] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+28.2, bestresponse=+0

[2] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Useful start, both of you. Here's my honest map: issue0 is worth essentially nothing to me on any option — I will hand it to whoever needs it most, free of charge. Avery, that's your concentration issue, so take it. Where I do need value is issue1 and issue2, with issue3 as a secondary. P1 doesn't work for me at all. Blake's P2 is much closer to workable. My draft P3 keeps Blake's issue0 choice and Blake's issue2 choice, and shifts issue1 and issue3 — but I want to stress: issue0 is fully open, name your option there and I'll write it in.
Max possible for me is issue1=opt1, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt3. issue0 is worth nothing to me on any option — pure currency to trade. P2 already clears my bar (128), so I have a safe fallback. Open high: propose 206-level package while conceding issue0 to Blake's preference.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.7

[3] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Here's my honest map: issue3 is worth literally nothing to me on any option — it is a free gift to whoever needs it, and I'll write in whatever Avery, Casey or Ember ask for there. Issue2=opt0 already seems to be common ground with Blake and Casey, so let's lock it. My value is concentrated in issue1, where I need opt3, and I can live with Blake's issue0=opt2. So P4 = Blake's package with issue1 moved to opt3, which is also Avery's own pick on that issue. Avery: you get your issue1 choice; Blake: you get issue0, issue2, issue3. Casey: name your issue3 option and I'll rewrite it that way immediately.
My values: i0 opt2=42, i1 opt3=82, i2 opt0=38, i3 all 0. Max package = 162. P1=134, P2=135, P3=80. I should push for i1=opt3 while conceding i3 entirely (free for me) and keeping Blake's i0/i2/i3 picks.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+17.9, bestresponse=+3.3

[4] Ember — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P3
💬 Here is my full map, plainly: issue0 and issue3 are worth nothing to me on any option — zero, all four options, both issues. So I am handing them over outright. Avery, you said issue0 and issue3 are where your value sits: name your option on both and I will write them in exactly as you say, no charge. Blake, same offer — as veto holder you should be getting your first pick on both of those. All of my value is in issue1 and issue2. issue2=opt0 already looks like common ground, so let's lock it. That leaves issue1 as the single real fight, and there I need opt1; opt3 is my zero, so P1 and P4 are literally worse than no deal for me and I can never sign them. Devon, I hear you on issue1=opt3, but that's the one issue where I have nowhere to go — I'd rather pay you in full on issue0 and issue3 instead. P3 clears my bar and I accept it. Avery, Blake: tell me your issue0 and issue3 picks and I'll table P3-with-your-picks next turn.
My value lives entirely in issue1 (opt1 >> opt0 > opt2 > opt3=0) and issue2 (opt0 best). issue0 and issue3 are worth exactly zero to me on every option — pure trading currency. P3 = 105 for me, well above bar. P2 = 52, thin but viable. P1/P4 are below my no-deal point because issue1=opt3 is my zero. Devon wants issue1=opt3, which is the one thing I cannot pay for. Accept P3 now to build a bloc with Casey, and loudly offer issue0+issue3 as free gifts to Avery and Blake to buy their issue1 vote.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.45

[5] Blake — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0

[6] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Concrete movement from me. I'm dropping my issue3 pick and writing in Blake's instead. New P5: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0. Look at what that does — Blake, as veto holder you now get your own option on three of the four issues, exactly as you tabled them in P2; the only change from your package is issue1. Ember, you keep the one thing you said you cannot live without. Devon, you told us issue3 is a free gift and you can live with issue0=opt2 — both of those are honoured here. So the whole negotiation is now a single square: issue1. Two of you need opt3, one of you needs opt1 and says opt3 is a hard zero. That means opt3 can never be signed by five parties, and P1 and P4 are dead ends no matter how many times they're re-tabled. My own ranking on issue1 puts opt1 clearly first, but I'll say this openly: opt0 is the one option on that issue nobody has yet called a zero, and I could live with it if that's what unlocks Avery and Devon. Avery — issue0 and issue3 are where you said your value sits; issue0 is worth nothing to me, so if Blake will release issue0=opt1 to you, I'll write it in immediately. Tell me and I'll table it. P3 and P5 both stand from my side.
My values: issue0 all zero; issue1 opt1(84)>opt0(56)>opt2(28)>opt3(0); issue2 opt0(57) best; issue3 opt3(65)>opt0(43)>opt2(22)>opt1(0). Threshold 94. P3=206, P5(new)=184, P2=128, P4=100. Blake has veto and proposed P2 (issue0=opt2,issue1=opt2,issue2=opt0,issue3=opt0). Best play: give Blake three of his four picks (issue0=opt2, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0) and keep issue1=opt1 which Ember says is existential for them. That yields 184 for me and pairs my accept with Ember's. Fallback in pocket: issue1=opt0 (56) still clears my bar, so if opt1 is truly blocked I can broker opt0 as the middle. issue1=opt3 only works for me if issue3 stays opt0 or opt3 — thin, avoid.
oracle regret: threshold=+22, acceptance=+58.4, bestresponse=+1.7

[7] Devon — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Let's be precise about the single square left, issue1. Ember has declared opt3 a hard zero and cannot sign it — fine, I accept that and I'm dropping my demand for opt3. But notice nobody has declared opt2 a zero. Casey said opt0 is the option nobody has called a zero; I'd add opt2 to that list, and it happens to be the option the veto holder himself tabled and has already formally accepted. So the shortest path to five signatures runs through Blake's own P2: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0. It gives Blake his own package untouched, it gives Casey and Ember the locked issue2=opt0, and it costs me my top pick on the one issue I care about — that is my concession, made in public, and it is real. I formally accept P2. Ember, Casey: opt1 is not reachable, because it asks the veto holder and two others to take last place on the only issue in dispute; opt2 is reachable today. And my standing offer holds — issue3 is worth nothing to me on any option, so if moving issue3 to opt3 or opt1 is what buys Casey's or Avery's signature onto an issue1=opt2 package, say the word and I will table exactly that next turn.
P2 = 135 for me, already accepted by Blake (veto). issue1=opt2 is the true middle: Ember declared opt3 a hard zero but never said opt2 was zero; Avery/Blake/I can't sign opt1-heavy packages cheaply. Push P2 hard. Fallbacks P3/P5 at 80 still clear my bar, so I'm safe either way — but no reason to fold yet in round 2.
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+0

[8] Ember — turn (round 2)

none
I'm aiming for P5 or P3 which both give me 105, since P2 only yields 52. My strategy is to secure issue1=opt1 for myself while distributing the other issues to maximize support. I should propose a package that gives Avery and Blake their preferred outcomes on issues 0 and 3—Avery gets opt1 on both, Blake gets opt2 on issue0 and opt0 on issue3—while I keep issue1=opt1 and set issue2=opt0. Blake's veto proposal differs from my P5 only on issue1, which is the key point of contention. My best move is to accept P5 and then negotiate hard with Blake, since I have P2 as a safe fallback at 52 points. I'll signal flexibility on issues 0 and 3 to keep Avery interested, but make it clear that issue1=opt1 and issue2=opt0 are non-negotiable for me.

[9] Avery — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Devon and Blake have converged on issue1=opt2, and I'll say plainly: that works for me. I'm ready to sign a package built on issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0. The one adjustment I'm asking for is the one thing three of you have publicly priced at zero: Casey said issue0 is worth nothing to him on any option, Ember said the same, and Devon said he can live with either. Issue0 is where my value is concentrated, and opt1 is my option there. So P6 is Blake's own P2 with exactly one square changed — the square that costs Casey, Ember and Devon literally nothing by their own statements. Blake, if issue0=opt2 is genuinely load-bearing for you, say so and I will accept P2 as tabled rather than let this fail over one square. Casey, Ember: issue1=opt1 asks the veto holder plus Devon plus me to take the worst outcome on the only contested issue — it isn't reachable. opt2 is reachable today, and I'm paying for it by dropping my own first pick on issue1.
P2 = 191 for me and already has Blake (veto) + Devon. P4=213 but Ember declared issue1=opt3 a hard zero, so dead. Best realistic improvement: keep P2's structure but move issue0 to opt1, which Casey and Ember both said is worth zero to them and Devon said he only 'can live with' opt2. That is +30 for me at near-zero cost to three parties. Fall back to P2 if Blake refuses.
oracle regret: threshold=+47, acceptance=+81.8, bestresponse=+3.3

[10] Casey — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 One square left, and I'm going to pay real money to close it. P7: issue0=opt1, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0. Read what that does. Avery — you have said twice that issue0 is where your value is concentrated and opt1 is your option there. I have said from my first word that issue0 is worth nothing to me on any option, so I am handing you opt1 outright, and I have also dropped my own issue3 pick to Blake's opt0 and kept it dropped. That is two concessions from me and none of them came back. Blake — P7 is your P2 with one square moved, and I've kept your issue2 and your issue3 exactly as you tabled them. Devon — you said issue3 is worth nothing to you on any option and you can live with either issue0; both are honoured, and issue2=opt0 stays locked. Now the arithmetic. Ember has stated flat out that opt3 is a hard zero for her and that opt1 is the one place she has nowhere to go. I take her at her word, because she has been the most transparent party here — she gave away two entire issues for free. If opt2 required her to sign below her own no-deal line, then no number of accepts on P2 or P6 will ever reach five, and we all take nothing. P7 is the only package that pays every single declared priority at the table simultaneously: Avery's issue0, Ember's issue1, Blake's issue2 and issue3, Devon's issue2 and issue3. Nobody is asked to sign their zero. I will hold P3 and P5 open as well, but P7 is where I think five signatures actually exist — and Ember, if opt1 is truly load-bearing for you, accept P7 now so Blake can see the quorum forming behind it.
P3=206, P5=184, P6/P2=128. Ember is blocking opt2 on issue1 (calls it zero-ish? she called opt3 zero, and needs opt1). Best play: table P7 = issue0=opt1 (Avery's stated concentration pick), issue1=opt1 (Ember's must-have), issue2=opt0 (locked), issue3=opt0 (Blake/Devon's pick). That pays Avery on his top issue, Ember on hers, Blake on 2 of his 3, Devon on issue2+issue3. Worth 184 to me. Keep P6 as my fallback accept in round 4 (128, still well above threshold) so I don't lose the deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+22, acceptance=+58.4, bestresponse=+1.7

[11] Devon — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P5
💬 Casey, I'll be blunt and precise, because we are one round from everyone taking nothing. P7 is below my no-deal line. Not 'disappointing' — below it. I have never said issue0 was free for me; I said I could live with Blake's opt2 there, and that is because opt2 on issue0 is a large part of my value. Move issue0 from opt2 to opt1 and you take enough off me that walking away is literally better. So P7 cannot reach five, ever, no matter how the arithmetic on issue1 goes. Now the good news: P5 is exactly P7 with that one square put back — and it is the one square Casey and Ember have BOTH publicly priced at zero on every option. So P5 costs you two nothing relative to P7, it gives Ember the issue1=opt1 she says she cannot live without, it gives Blake his own issue0, issue2 and issue3 exactly as he tabled them in P2, and it takes issue1=opt2 off me, which is a real and painful concession on my only high-value issue. I am accepting P5 right now so the quorum is visible: Casey and I are on it. Ember, you have said issue0 and issue3 are worth zero to you — P5 pays you your must-have and costs you nothing versus P3 or P7, so accept it. Avery, you told us you would sign issue0=opt2 rather than let this fail over one square — this is that moment. Blake, P2 remains my first choice and my accept there stands; if you can carry Ember on issue1=opt2, close P2. If you can't, P5 is the same package with the single contested square conceded to her. Either P2 or P5 closes this. P7 closes nothing.
P7 = 52 for me, below my 69 line — genuinely unsignable. P5 = 80, viable. P2 = 135, best realistic. Accept P5 now to build a real quorum (Casey+Devon) while keeping P2 alive; P5 is P7 with only issue0 restored to Blake's pick, and both Casey and Ember declared issue0 worth zero to them.
oracle regret: threshold=+82, acceptance=+82, bestresponse=+3.3

[12] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P5
💬 Accepting P5. Let's be clear about what P5 is: it is Blake's own P2 with exactly one square changed, and Blake keeps his own picks on issue0, issue2 and issue3 untouched. Devon has just conceded issue1 — his own high-value issue — to make it work, and that is the biggest single move anyone has made at this table. Casey has conceded issue3 and holds. I have given away issue0 and issue3 entirely, both worth nothing to me on every option, and I have never asked for a thing on either. P5 now has three of five signatures: Casey, Devon, me. Avery — you said out loud that if issue0=opt2 is load-bearing for Blake you would sign it rather than let this fail over one square. Devon has now told us plainly that issue0=opt1 puts him below his no-deal line, which means P6 and P7 are dead however the issue1 square falls. So P5 is the version of your package that can actually close, and it is one accept away from four. Blake — you hold the veto and P5 hands you three of four squares exactly as you wrote them. The only question left in this room is whether issue1 lands on the option that three parties have signed, or on nothing at all. We have one round after this. I am on P5 and I would rather close than posture.
P5 = 105 for me, best reachable. Accept it to make quorum visible: Casey, Devon, me = 3. Need Avery + Blake. P2 is my fallback (above line) but I must not reveal that yet or opt1 collapses. Keep pressure on P5; if round 4 arrives with no movement, I can still accept P2.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.45

[13] Avery — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 I'm going to close this, not posture. I accept the room's verdict on issue1: three of you have signed opt1 and I will not fight it — I'm giving up my own pick there, which is the single largest square I hold. In exchange I'm asking for one square that four separate parties have already priced at nothing. P8 is P5 with issue3 moved from opt0 to opt1. Devon said issue3 is worth literally nothing to him on any option. Ember said issue0 and issue3 are worth zero to her on all four options, both issues. Casey already gave up his issue3 pick voluntarily and called it secondary. Blake keeps issue0=opt2 and issue2=opt0 exactly as he tabled them. So P8 costs Casey, Devon and Ember precisely nothing relative to P5 — by their own public statements — and it is the only thing I've asked for all negotiation. Blake: this is the whole ask. If issue3=opt0 is genuinely load-bearing for you, say the word plainly and I will accept P5 on my next turn and we close — I am not letting this table fail over one square, and I've said that twice now and meant it. But if issue3 is soft for you, sign P8 and you have five signatures immediately, because the three parties already on P5 have told us this square is free. Casey, Devon, Ember: move your accepts to P8 and it costs you nothing you've claimed to value.
P5=146 (above my 125 line) has Casey/Devon/Ember; only Blake and I missing. P2=191 has Blake+Devon but Casey/Ember are dug in on issue1=opt1. Cheapest upgrade for me: P5 with issue3 moved from opt0 to opt1 (+25). Devon and Ember have BOTH declared issue3 worth zero on every option; Casey already abandoned his issue3 pick. So only Blake pays anything. Propose P8, and publicly commit to signing P5 next turn if Blake says issue3=opt0 is load-bearing — that guarantees closure while giving me a shot at the extra.
oracle regret: threshold=+97, acceptance=+81.8, bestresponse=+3.3

[14] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0

[15] Devon — turn (round 4)

none

[16] Ember — turn (round 4)

none

[17] Avery — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P5
💬 Final round — I'm going to end the posturing and sign. I accept P5. Understand what that costs me: P5 is not my package. It gives me nothing on issue1, the square I opened with, and it gives me nothing on issue3, the only thing I asked for all negotiation. I dropped both. Blake — look at what P5 actually is from your seat: it is your own P2 with a single square changed. Your issue0=opt2 stands. Your issue2=opt0 stands. Your issue3=opt0 stands. Three of your four picks are untouched, exactly as you wrote them in your opening package. The one square that moved, issue1, moved because Ember stated plainly it is the one place she has nowhere to go, and Devon — who wanted opt3 there and fought for it — conceded it in public rather than let us all walk out with nothing. P5 now carries Casey, Devon, Ember and me. That is four of five. You hold the fifth and you hold the veto, so this is entirely in your hands: sign P5 and we all get paid, or hold P2 for one more turn and every one of us takes the no-deal outcome, you included. P2 cannot reach five — Casey and Ember have both told us so, repeatedly, and there is no round after this one to test it. I have moved off my top picks on three separate issues to get here. I'm asking you to move on one. Accept P5.
P5 = 146 for me, above my line. It already has Casey, Devon, Ember. My accept makes it 4 of 5 — only Blake left. P2 would pay me more (191) but needs BOTH Casey and Ember to move, and both have publicly staked out issue1=opt1. One holdout to persuade beats two. Close it.
oracle regret: threshold=+122, acceptance=+122, bestresponse=+3.3

[18] Blake — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0

[19] Casey — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Final turn, so let me be entirely practical rather than principled. P5 carries four signatures — mine, Avery's, Devon's, Ember's — and it cannot close, because the one seat that matters most has spent every turn of this negotiation on P2 and has no turn left to move. That is not a criticism; it is arithmetic. A package with four signatures and no veto is worth exactly as much as no package at all, and I would rather take a deal I like less than take nothing. So I am moving my signature to Blake's own opening package. I formally accept P2. That costs me the issue1 square I have argued for from my first word, and it costs me real value — issue1 is one of the two issues where my value actually sits, and opt2 is a long way down my sheet from opt1. I am paying it because P2 is the only live offer in this room that the veto holder has endorsed, and because issue2=opt0 and issue3=opt0 in it keep me above my own line. Devon, your accept on P2 already stands. Ember — I know opt1 is where your value is and I fought for it on your behalf across three rounds; if opt2 on issue1 is genuinely above your no-deal line, put your name on P2 now, because P5 has nowhere left to go. Avery, you said twice you would sign issue0=opt2 rather than let this table fail over one square; P2 is that package, unchanged from Blake's opening. Everyone who can still move: P2 or nothing.
Blake has no turns left this round (order: Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember — both have already moved). Blake only ever accepted P2, so P5 can never gain the veto signature. Avery also has no turns left and never accepted P2. Strictly, nothing can reach five. My only rational move is to put my signature on the single package the veto holder has actually endorsed — P2 clears my bar comfortably (well above my no-deal line). If any accept-tallying or final sweep occurs, P2 is the only live candidate with the veto on it. Accept P2 and call on the remaining movers to do the same.
oracle regret: threshold=+78, acceptance=+78, bestresponse=+0

[20] Ember — final_proposal (round 5)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Final move, and I'm choosing a deal over a principle. I am tabling Blake's opening package verbatim — issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0. Not one square changed from what the veto holder wrote in round one. I fought for issue1=opt1 because that is where nearly all of my value sits, and giving it up costs me more than anything anyone else has surrendered here. But four signatures without the veto is worth exactly nothing, and I would rather be paid less than be paid nothing. Blake: this is your own text. Casey and Devon: your accepts are already on this package. Avery: you said twice you would sign issue0=opt2 rather than let this table fail over one square — this is that package. Vote it up and we all get paid.
P5 (105) is dead: Blake never moved off P2 across four rounds and holds the veto. P2 gives me 52, above my line of 43. Final move must be a proposal for immediate up/down vote — table P2's exact content so Blake, Casey, Devon and Avery, who have all already endorsed that package, can sign it. 52 beats 0.
oracle regret: threshold=+53, acceptance=+23.1, bestresponse=+0

[21] Avery — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P9
💬 P9 is Blake's opening package word for word, and it clears my bar. Blake, Casey, Devon are already on this exact text via P2, and Ember has now tabled it. I accept P9 — that's five. Let's close.
P9 = 191 for me, far above my line. Blake, Casey, Devon already on P2 which is identical content; Ember tabled P9. Accept immediately.
oracle regret: threshold=+77, acceptance=+77, bestresponse=+0

[22] Blake — final_vote (round 5)

(invalid: The final vote is only on P9; reference that offer id.)

[23] Blake — final_vote (round 5)

(invalid: The final vote is only on P9; reference that offer id.)

[24] Casey — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P9
💬 P9 is Blake's own opening text, unchanged. I accept P9. Blake, that is Avery, Casey, Devon and Ember on this exact package — one signature from you and everyone at this table gets paid. Let's close.
P9 = P2 text, 128 for me, well above my line. Blake needs to accept; my accept costs nothing and closing beats nothing.
oracle regret: threshold=+78, acceptance=+78, bestresponse=+0

[25] Devon — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P9
💬 P9 is Blake's opening text verbatim and it clears my bar comfortably. I accept P9. That is Avery, Casey, Ember and me on this exact package — Blake, it is your own words, unchanged in every square. Sign it and we all get paid.
P9 = P2 text, worth 135 to me, well above threshold. Avery, Casey, Ember on it; Blake authored the identical text. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+0

Outcome

no deal (no_deal)

primary 0.0 · USW 0.0 · ESW 0.0 · NSW 0.0 · Gini 0.0 · per-party surplus [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]