scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-56d3cf58bd

model one_oracle · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L4-d49e5fe070 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_oracle", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.75

[1] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Blake's package is close to workable for me. I'm happy to leave issue2 and issue3 exactly as Blake wrote them — those are his to shape, and I won't fight there. My only real ask is issue0: opt3 instead of opt0. Everything else in P1 I keep intact. That's a cheap trade for the rest of you if issue0 isn't your priority — and if it is, tell me which issue you need and I'll trade my flexibility on issue2/issue3 for it.
P1 gives me 69, already above my bar. But issue0=opt3 is much better for me (+19). Issues 2 and 3 are worthless to me, so I'll concede them entirely to Blake's preferences as a goodwill signal. Fallback: accept P1 later.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[2] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Straight talk so we converge fast. Issue3 is worth literally nothing to me — whoever cares about it, name your option and I will back it every time, no charge. That's a free win for someone. In exchange I need movement on issue2: opt0 is far and away my strongest outcome there, and every step down that list costs me real ground. On issue0, Casey's opt3 is the one cell I cannot fund — it is a zero for me and it turns Blake's otherwise workable package into something below my walk-away line. Opt2 is my best, opt1 I can live with. Issue1=opt3 I'm happy to keep exactly as Blake wrote it. So: P3 keeps Blake's issue1 and issue3 untouched, moves issue2 to opt0 and issue0 to opt2. Casey, if issue0 is genuinely your priority, take opt1 or opt2 and I'll hand you issue3 outright — but opt3 there buys my rejection, not my vote.
My values: i0 opt2=48 > opt1=32 > opt0=16 > opt3=0; i1 opt3=26 best; i2 opt0=69 > opt1=46 > opt2=23 > opt3=0; i3 worthless to me — pure giveaway chip. P1=88 (acceptable), P2=72 (below my bar). Push for i2=opt0 and i0=opt2, trade away i3 entirely.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.25

[3] Ember — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Cards up, at least partly: issue2 is worth exactly nothing to me — zero, all four cells. Devon, that means issue2=opt0 is yours for free from my side, permanently, and I'll back it in any package. What I do need is issue3=opt1 (Blake wrote it, Casey kept it, Devon says it's worthless to him — so that one is settled cheaply) and issue1=opt3, which every proposal so far already contains. That leaves issue0 as the only genuinely contested cell. My order there is opt3 best, opt0 a solid second, opt2 unfundable. So P4 is Devon's issue2 plus Casey's issue0 with Blake's issue1/issue3 untouched. Devon, if opt3 on issue0 truly breaks you, I can live with opt0 there — that version I'd support too, and it costs Casey only one cell while you keep issue2 outright. What I can't do is opt2 on issue0 stacked on top of everything else.
P2=239, P1=209, P3=148 for me. Issue2 is a total blank for me — free currency. Issue3=opt1 and issue1=opt3 are my real needs; issue0 opt3>opt0>>opt2. Table a package giving Devon issue2=opt0 and Casey issue0=opt3, keep Blake's issue1/issue3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+55.3, bestresponse=+2.45

[4] Avery — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P1
💬 Let me be maximally useful by being blunt about where I'm rigid and where I'm free. Free: issue3 is worth exactly zero to me — Ember, Blake, take opt1 there, permanent, no charge. Also flexible: issue0. I can sign opt0, opt1, opt2 or even opt3 there depending on the rest, so Casey and Ember can settle that cell between themselves. Rigid: issue2. This is the one issue that carries almost my entire sheet, and I need to say plainly that issue2=opt0 is not a cell I can be bargained into — with opt0 there, even if I won every other cell in the package I'd still land below my no-deal line. That's arithmetic, not posturing. So P3 and P4 aren't 'expensive' for me, they're unsignable, and a package needing all five of us can't be built on them. Devon: I hear that opt0 is your peak on issue2, but you also said opt1 and opt2 are steps down rather than zeros, while it's the difference between a deal and no deal for me. Here is the trade I'm offering you: I will back issue0=opt2, your stated best, and I'll go as far as issue2=opt2 as a genuine middle — that's real ground given up on my side. Package: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt1. Ember, if opt2 on issue0 is truly unfundable for you, then issue0=opt1 with issue2=opt2 also works for me, or Blake's original P1 as written. For now, P1 clears my bar and I'm accepting it to put a real coalition on the board — Blake and I are two. Ember, P1 gives you issue1=opt3, issue3=opt1 and your second-best issue0 while costing you nothing on the issue you don't score; join us and we're three.
Key facts: issue3 is worth zero to me (free giveaway). issue1=opt3 is my best there and everyone already has it. issue2 is my dominant issue: opt1 >> opt2 > opt3 >> opt0. Arithmetic: with issue2=opt0 my absolute ceiling across all other cells is below my walk-away line, so ANY package with issue2=opt0 (P3, P4) is literally unsignable for me — I'd walk instead. P1 gives me 160, P2 gives 142; both fine. Fallback zone: issue2=opt2 works if issue0 is opt0/opt1/opt2; issue2=opt3 only works with issue0=opt1 or opt2. Blake is veto and P1 is his own package, so backing P1 locks the veto holder into a package I love. Ember said issue0=opt0 is a solid second and she doesn't care about issue2 — so P1 should be signable for her too. Casey only wants issue0=opt3, which is P2, also fine for me. Devon is the sole obstacle; I must make clear opt0 on issue2 is not a bargaining position but a hard floor, and pay him in issue0 instead.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[5] Casey — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P1
💬 I've pushed my case on issue0 and I'll now stop pushing, because the arithmetic on this table is clear: Devon can't fund opt3 there, Ember can't fund opt2, and Avery can't fund issue2=opt0. Strip out every cell that someone has called unsignable and exactly one package survives — Blake's original P1. It gives Ember issue1=opt3 and issue3=opt1, it gives Avery an issue2 he can live with, it gives Devon issue1 and issue3 untouched plus the issue0 cell he said he could accept, and it gives me less than I asked for on issue0. That's what a settlement looks like. I'm dropping my own P2 and accepting P1. That makes three of five with Blake's veto already inside it. Devon, Ember — one accept each and we're done in this round rather than burning two more.
P1 = 69 for me (+18). Feasible set: Devon vetoes issue0=opt3, Ember vetoes issue0=opt2, so issue0 must be opt0 or opt1 — opt0 is better for me. Avery blocks issue2=opt0, Devon can live with opt1. issue1=opt3 is my max and universally accepted. So P1 is effectively the best package that all five can sign. Take it and drive closure.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+19, bestresponse=+0

[6] Devon — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 I've dropped issue2=opt0. Avery says it's arithmetic and I'll take him at his word — P3 and P4 are off my table, and I'm not going to spend the next two rounds relitigating a cell that one of us says is unsignable. That's a real concession: I gave up my single most valuable cell on the board, in full, in exchange for nothing yet. So here is the last thing I need, and it is one cell. P1 as written sits right on my edge — issue3 is a pure zero for me, issue2=opt1 is already two steps down from where I started, and issue0=opt0 is the thinnest cell of the four. Move issue0 one notch to opt1 and I'm in immediately. Look at who that costs: Avery said plainly he can sign opt0, opt1, opt2 or opt3 on issue0 and left that cell to be settled between Casey and Ember. Ember ruled out only opt2 there. Casey's stated best is opt3, so opt1 is a step toward Casey, not away. Nobody at this table has said opt1 is unfundable — it is the one cell everyone left open. P5 is P1 with that single notch and nothing else touched: Blake's issue1=opt3 and issue3=opt1 preserved exactly, Avery's issue2=opt1 preserved exactly. Blake, Casey, Avery — you're already three on the shape; carrying it to P5 costs you one notch on the issue you each called flexible and buys my vote outright. Ember, this also keeps your issue1 and issue3 intact and stays off the cell you can't fund.
P1 = 88 for me, above my line of 79 but thin. P5 = issue0=opt1 keeps everything else in P1 identical and gains me a real step. Avery explicitly said he can sign opt0/opt1/opt2/opt3 on issue0 and prefers issue2=opt1 (he called opt2 'ground given up'), so P5 is strictly no worse for Avery than his own fallback. Ember only ruled out opt2 on issue0. Casey wanted opt3, so opt1 is a step toward him from opt0. If P5 stalls I can still accept P1 in round 3 or 4 — I hold the quorum either way. Don't reveal that P1 already clears my bar.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+31.8, bestresponse=+0

[7] Ember — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Devon, you asked for one notch and you asked for it on the wrong issue. You told us issue2 is where your sheet actually lives — opt0 your peak, opt2 a step down, opt1 two steps down. Avery told us in plain words he can sign issue2=opt2 as a genuine middle. So instead of paying you in issue0, where Casey and I both have real money on the line, let me pay you in the currency you said you value most: P6 is P1 with issue2 moved from opt1 up to opt2, and nothing else touched. Blake's issue1=opt3 and issue3=opt1 stay exactly as written; Avery stays off the cell he called arithmetic-impossible; Casey keeps the issue0 cell he already accepted. That is a bigger concession to you than the notch you asked for, and it comes out of Avery's flexibility rather than out of the one cell Casey and I are still splitting. Devon — you gave up issue2=opt0 for nothing yet, and I'm the one handing you part of it back. Avery, you named opt2 yourself, so this is your number, not a new demand. Blake, Casey — P6 changes one cell from the package you've already signed, on the issue neither of you flagged as decisive. If P6 clears, we close now. If Devon would rather have the issue0 notch than the issue2 step, then say so plainly and I'll know the earlier statement was posturing.
issue2 is worthless to me, so trading Devon up on issue2 (opt1->opt2, which Avery explicitly said he can sign) costs me nothing and preserves issue0=opt0 (worth much more to me than opt1). P6 = 209 for me, same as P1. Keep P2/P4 alive rhetorically but they're dead to Devon. Fallbacks P1 (209) and P5 (178) both clear my bar, so I have no walk risk — just maximizing.
oracle regret: threshold=+30, acceptance=+55.3, bestresponse=+2.45

[8] Avery — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P5
💬 Ember, look carefully at what P6 actually does. By your own account issue2 is a flat zero across all four cells for you — so moving issue2 from opt1 to opt2 buys you literally nothing, and the only difference P6 makes to your sheet versus P5 is one notch on issue0. Meanwhile that same move is expensive for me: I said opt2 was a middle I could reach if it was the last thing standing between us and a deal, not a cell to hand over while I'm also being asked to concede issue0. Paying Devon in a currency that is free to you and costly to me isn't generosity, it's routing my ground through your hands. Devon named the cell he wants: issue0=opt1. Nobody at this table has called opt1 unfundable — you ruled out only opt2 there, Casey's ask was opt3 so opt1 is not away from him, and I said openly I can sign it. So P5 is the package that pays the one party still outside the coalition, in the coin he asked for, out of the one cell everyone left open. Devon is in it, and I am accepting it now — that's two, and Blake's veto is one cell away from a close. Blake, Casey: P5 is your P1 with a single notch on the issue you both called flexible, and it preserves issue1=opt3 and issue3=opt1 exactly as Blake wrote them, plus issue2=opt1 untouched. If Ember genuinely cannot live with opt1 on issue0, then P1 as written remains signable for me and I will go back to it — but P3, P4 and anything else built on issue2=opt0 stays arithmetically impossible, and P6 is where my flexibility ends, not where it starts.
P5 = 179 for me (best live). P1 = 160. P6 = 128 (still above bar but worst of the three viable). Ember says issue2 is a pure zero for them, so P6 vs P5 differs for Ember only by one notch on issue0 — while for me P6 costs a lot. Push P5, keep P1 as fallback, refuse P3/P4.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[9] Blake — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P1
oracle regret: threshold=+35, acceptance=+35, bestresponse=+2.75

[10] Devon — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P1
💬 I'm going to stop trading and close this. I pushed twice for the issue0 notch and I got Avery on it and nobody else — Blake, Casey and Ember have all told me in one way or another that the cell stays where Blake first wrote it. Fine. I gave up issue2=opt0 outright earlier and I'm now giving up the notch too; that's two concessions from me and I'm asking for nothing back, because a deal at the edge beats no deal for everyone here and I'd rather bank it than spend the last round proving a point. P1 is thin for me — issue3 is a flat zero, issue2=opt1 is two steps down from where I started, and issue0=opt0 is the weakest cell on the board — but it clears my line and I am accepting it now, formally. That's four of five with Blake's veto already inside. Ember: P1 gives you issue1=opt3 and issue3=opt1 exactly as you asked, it stays off issue0=opt2 which you called unfundable, and it hands you your solid-second cell on issue0. P6 and P4 have no path — Avery has said three times that issue2=opt0 is arithmetic, and P6's issue2 move is worth literally nothing to you by your own account. One accept from you and we're done in this round. Withhold it and all five of us take the no-deal outcome over a cell you scored second-best anyway.
P1 = 88 for me, above my 79 line. P5 = 104 but needs Blake, Casey AND Ember to move, and all three have signalled they prefer P1's issue0 cell. Avery blocks anything with issue2=opt0, so P3/P4 are dead. There is no package that beats P1 for me that any blocking party will sign. Ember is the only holdout on P1; if I accept now, four of five are in and Ember moves immediately after me. Lock it in.
oracle regret: threshold=+55, acceptance=+55, bestresponse=+16

[11] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P1
💬 Devon moved twice and asked nothing back, and I said from the start that issue2 costs me nothing — so I won't hold the table hostage over a cell I already called my solid second. P1 keeps issue1=opt3 and issue3=opt1 exactly as Blake wrote them, stays off every cell anyone called unfundable, and it clears my line. I accept P1. That's five, with Blake's veto inside. Done.
P1 gives me 209 vs threshold 129. P2 would give 239 but Devon has stated issue0=opt3 is below his line and he won't move; pushing costs risk of no deal for +30. Close it.
oracle regret: threshold=+30, acceptance=+30, bestresponse=+0

Outcome

deal: {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"} (closed by consensus)

primary 1.0 · USW 192.0 · ESW 9.0 · NSW 23016960.0 · Gini 0.3583 · per-party surplus [48.0, 37.0, 18.0, 9.0, 80.0]