scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-5b2919a824
model one_oracle · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L3-d9a0ef3c04 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_oracle", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}
Game setup
- Issues: issue0 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue1 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue2 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue3 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3)
- P0 (τ=95): issue0: opt0=19, opt1=57, opt2=38, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=12, opt1=37, opt2=25, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=32, opt1=0, opt2=65, opt3=97
- P1 (τ=46): issue0: opt0=48, opt1=0, opt2=24, opt3=71; issue1: opt0=7, opt1=21, opt2=14, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P2 (τ=46): issue0: opt0=21, opt1=63, opt2=42, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=10, opt1=29, opt2=20, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P3 (τ=101): issue0: opt0=41, opt1=0, opt2=21, opt3=62; issue1: opt0=19, opt1=56, opt2=37, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=14, opt2=42, opt3=28; issue3: opt0=42, opt1=28, opt2=0, opt3=14
- P4 (τ=116): issue0: opt0=54, opt1=0, opt2=27, opt3=80; issue1: opt0=19, opt1=58, opt2=39, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=31, opt1=93, opt2=62, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
Turns
[0] Blake — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Good morning. Let me be transparent about structure so we can converge fast. Two of the four issues — issue2 and issue3 — are genuinely low-stakes for me; I will sign whatever combination the rest of you prefer there, and I'd urge whoever cares most about them to speak up early and claim them. What I do need is issue0, where my sheet is very lopsided: essentially all of my value sits in one option there, and a package that misses it falls below my walk-away line, veto or not. So my opening package is: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt1, and issue2/issue3 set as placeholders that I'm happy to rewrite on request. Tell me your priorities and I'll redraft around them.
My value is concentrated in issue0 (opt3 best=71, opt0=48, opt2=24, opt1=0) and issue1 (opt1=21, opt0=7, opt2=14). Issues 2 and 3 are worth nothing to me — perfect trade currency. Threshold 46 means I basically need issue0 = opt3 or opt0 (or opt2 plus issue1 opt1 = 45, just short). So issue0 is my hard line. Open with max, advertise total flexibility on issues 2 and 3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.15
[1] Casey — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Thanks Blake, that's a useful opening. Here's my mirror-image transparency: issue2 and issue3 are worth exactly nothing to me — I will sign whatever Avery, Devon and Ember want there, no compensation asked. That's two whole issues I'm handing over on turn one. But I have to be equally blunt about issue0: opt3 is my zero. Not a small loss — zero. A package with issue0=opt3 sits below my walk-away no matter how generous everything else is, so P1 is a reject from me, not as a tactic but as arithmetic. The good news is I have range on issue0: opt1 is my best, opt2 is workable, opt0 is thin but not fatal if issue1 comes my way. Blake, if all your value truly sits in one option on issue0, we have a genuine collision and we should find out now which of us can be paid off elsewhere — I'd rather spend rounds 2 and 3 solving that than papering over it. My tabled package keeps your issue1=opt1 and your issue2/issue3 placeholders untouched; only issue0 moves.
My value is concentrated in issue0 (opt1 best, opt2 decent, opt0 weak, opt3 zero) and issue1 (opt1 best). issue2/issue3 are literally worthless to me — pure trading chips. Blake's P1 gives me well under my walk-away, so I must reject. issue0=opt3 is a hard zero for me; no combination with it can clear my bar. I should say so credibly now, and buy goodwill by conceding issue2/3 outright.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.2
[2] Devon — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Taking Blake and Casey at their word: issue2 and issue3 are the two issues that matter most to me after issue0, so I'll claim them as offered. On issue2 my value is concentrated in opt2, and on issue3 in opt0 — neither of you loses anything by that. On issue0 I'm aligned with Blake: opt3 is far and away my best, and with a veto in the room I don't think we can build a deal around anything else. Casey, the currency I can actually pay you in is issue1 — tell me which option there is worth most to you and I will move to it if it closes the gap, because issue1 is where I have real room. My package: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt0.
P1 = 160 for me, excellent. My ideal is issue0=opt3, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt0 = 202. Blake said issue2/3 are free for him, and Casey says they're worthless to her, so claiming issue2=opt2 is nearly costless. Blake's veto + his hard need for issue0=opt3 means Casey's line is the one that has to bend; I should pay Casey out of issue1 if needed later.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+17.3, bestresponse=+2.6
[3] Ember — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Helpful openings all round. My cards: issue3 is literally worthless to me — Devon, take opt0 there with my blessing, no charge. My value is concentrated in issue2, and specifically in opt1, not opt2. Devon, that's the one real gap between us and it's a single option on a single issue; if you can live with issue2=opt1 I will pay you back by never contesting issue3 and by backing issue0=opt3 all the way, which I know is your and Blake's core need. Casey — I hear you, and I think issue1 is where you get made whole: if issue2 comes to opt1 for me, I am willing to move issue1 to opt2 or opt0, whichever is your best, and I'd rather do that than watch this collapse over issue0. So my package is issue0=opt3, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 — with issue1 explicitly open for Casey to name.
P3 = 200 for me, excellent. But issue2=opt1 is my peak (much higher than opt2). Push for that while signalling P3 is signable. Casey is the blocker on issue0; I can pay Casey in issue1 (opt2 costs me only modestly) as long as I keep issue2=opt1.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+29.5, bestresponse=+2.9
[4] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt3"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.9
[5] Casey — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Let me kill a misunderstanding that will otherwise burn two rounds. Devon, Ember — you both offered to pay me on issue1 by moving it to whatever I name. The option I want on issue1 is opt1, which is already in every single package on the table. So the currency you're offering me has already been spent; there is nothing left in issue1 to buy me with. That matters, because it means the gap on issue0 cannot be closed sideways. And on issue0=opt3 I have to be precise rather than dramatic: it is not a low score for me, it is zero, and the rest of the board maxes out well short of my walk-away line. So P1, P3 and P4 are not packages I'm haggling over — they are arithmetically worse for me than going home, and I will still be rejecting them in round 4. Please price that in now. Here is what I'm doing about it: I'm moving off my own best option. My package takes issue0 to opt2, which is a real concession from opt1 and a genuine midpoint, and it hands issue2 and issue3 entirely to the three of you — issue2=opt1 as Ember and Avery both asked, issue3=opt0 as Devon asked and Ember waived. That's me conceding half the board and half my range on the only issue I score. Blake, you said your sheet is lopsided; so is mine, in the opposite direction, and one of us has to be paid in something other than issue0. I've just shown you two issues' worth of goodwill. If opt2 genuinely cannot work for you, tell me plainly and I'll look hard at Avery's opt0 line instead — but the answer will never be opt3.
issue0=opt3 is literally 0 for me; even with my best issue1 I reach only 29 vs threshold 46. So opt3 is unsignable, period. My viable set: issue0=opt1 (best), opt2 (good), opt0 (marginal, only works with issue1=opt1 -> 50). Everyone already proposes issue1=opt1, which is my best there, so their 'payment' on issue1 is already banked and worth nothing extra. Avery is my natural ally (proposed opt0). Table issue0=opt2 as the split-the-difference, and give away issue2/issue3 to Devon+Ember+Avery to buy them off issue0.
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+17.5, bestresponse=+0.2
[6] Devon — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P4
💬 I'm formally accepting P4. That puts Blake, Ember and me on the same package, and it gives Ember the issue2=opt1 she asked for at my own cost — I moved off my best option there without asking anyone to pay me. Casey, note what that means: three of us have now converged, and issue1=opt1, your top option, is locked in every version. On issue0 I'll be straight with you. If Blake's constraint is real, opt3 is the only landing zone and P4 closes today. If Blake can genuinely move, then the fallback is opt0 — not opt2. Avery has already tabled opt0, you called it survivable with issue1=opt1 in hand, and it costs me materially less than opt2 does, so it's the only non-opt3 line I can carry. Concretely, that fallback is issue0=opt0, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0: Casey off his zero, Ember's issue2, my issue3, your issue1. Blake — you're the one who has to tell us which world we're in, and you need to tell us this round, not in round 4.
P3 (202) best but Ember wants issue2=opt1; P4 gives me 174 and already has Ember. Quorum is all 5, so Casey cannot be bypassed — walking doesn't lower it. If Casey truly zeros on issue0=opt3, the endgame fallback must be issue0=opt0 (my second-best, 41) rather than opt2 (21). Fallback package opt0/opt1/opt1/opt0 = 153 for me, still strong. Push opt3 now, steer any fallback toward opt0 and issue3=opt0.
oracle regret: threshold=+28, acceptance=+28, bestresponse=+0
[7] Ember — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 I'm still on P4 — it's my first choice and it's the package Blake and Devon both said they need. But I'm not going to spend rounds 3 and 4 discovering we had no landing zone, so I'm tabling the insurance package now: issue0=opt0, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0. That is exactly the fallback Devon named, it takes Casey off his zero, it keeps Casey's issue1=opt1, it gives Devon issue3=opt0, and I've given up issue0=opt3 which is worth real money to me — I'm paying for this bridge out of my own pocket, not Devon's. Note I did not take Avery's issue3=opt3; Devon's issue3 claim stands. So there are exactly two live worlds: P4 if Blake's issue0 constraint is absolute, P7 if it isn't. Blake, you're the veto and you're the only one who hasn't told us which world we're in — say it this round and the rest of us will sign whichever one you name. Casey, Avery, Devon: P7 is on the table, accept it and Blake has a clean choice instead of a standoff.
P4 = 231 for me (best). Bridge with issue0=opt0 = 54+58+93+0 = 205 — nearly as good. Casey is credibly locked out of opt3; if that's real, the opt0 line is where this lands and it costs me only modestly. Table it as insurance while keeping P4 alive; force Blake to state whether opt3 is truly binding.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+60.5, bestresponse=+2.9
[8] Avery — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P5
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[9] Blake — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P7
💬 Here is the answer you asked for, plainly. My issue0 ordering is: opt3 best, opt0 clearly second and comfortably above my walk-away, opt2 BELOW my walk-away, opt1 worthless. So P6 is not a midpoint I can sign — issue0=opt2 fails my arithmetic just as surely as opt3 fails Casey's. That leaves exactly one square on the board where Casey and I are both above water: issue0=opt0. Ember found it and named it correctly. So I am not going to spend rounds 3 and 4 squeezing for opt3 when Casey has told us three times it is his zero — a walk by anyone kills the quorum and we all go home with nothing. I am formally accepting P7: issue0=opt0, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0. Note what P7 does for each of you: Casey off his zero and holding his top option on issue1; Ember her issue2=opt1; Devon his issue3=opt0; and I have given up the option where the bulk of my value sat. That is the veto party paying for the bridge. Avery — P7 is P5 with issue3 moved to opt0, which is Devon's claim and cost you the least of anything on your sheet; please move across. Casey, Devon, Avery: three accepts stand on P7 with mine. Two more signatures and this is done this round.
Only issue0 and issue1 score for me. issue1=opt1 is my max there and it's in every package. On issue0: opt3=best, opt0=second and clearly above my line, opt2 is BELOW my line, opt1 is zero. Casey cannot take opt3 and I cannot take opt2 — so opt0 is the unique overlap. P7 = 69 for me, which is the ceiling among Casey-feasible packages. Lock it now rather than gamble two rounds chasing opt3 and risk Casey walking, which would kill quorum entirely.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+23, bestresponse=+0
[10] Devon — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P7
💬 Blake gave us the straight answer we asked for, and it points at exactly one square: issue0=opt0. I'm formally accepting P7. That's four signatures — Blake, Ember, Avery in substance, and me — on the only package where every one of us is above water. Note I gave up issue0=opt3, which was my best option, and issue2=opt2, which was my second real claim; I'm taking issue3=opt0 and nothing else. Casey: P7 is you off your zero with issue1=opt1, your top option, exactly as you asked. Avery: P7 is P5 with issue3 at opt0 instead of opt3 — the one move you said costs you least, and Ember has already waived that issue to me. Two signatures and we're done this round. There is no better package waiting in round 4; there is only the risk of no package at all.
P7 = 153 for me, well above my bar. Blake (veto) and Ember are on it; Avery's P5 differs only on issue3, Casey said opt0 is survivable. Pushing issue2 back to opt2 would gain me some but risks Ember and the whole deal with one round left. Lock it in.
oracle regret: threshold=+49, acceptance=+49, bestresponse=+0
[11] Ember — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P7
💬 I'm reaffirming my acceptance of P7. Count the board: Blake — the veto — Devon and I are all signed on the same package, and Blake got there by giving up the option where he said the bulk of his value sat. Casey: P7 is issue0=opt0, the one square Blake has told us is above water for both of you, plus issue1=opt1, your top option, untouched in every draft since round one. You said opt0 was survivable with issue1 in hand. It is now on the table with the veto's signature on it — there is no round-4 package that beats it, only the risk of none. Avery: P7 is your own P5 with a single move on issue3, the issue I waived to Devon and the one you priced cheapest. I'm not going to pretend otherwise — if issue3=opt3 is genuinely load-bearing for you rather than a preference, say so plainly this turn and Devon and I will look at it, because P5 and P7 differ by exactly one option. But if it isn't, cross to P7 now. One signature from each of you and we close this round.
P7 gives me 205, far above my bar. Blake (veto), Devon and I are on it. Need Avery and Casey. Avery's only gap is issue3=opt3 (P5), which is worth nothing to me either way — but Devon claimed issue3 and I traded it to him for issue2=opt1, so I hold the line on P7 while flagging P5 as a live twin if Avery's issue3 need is genuinely binding. Reaffirm P7.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+26, bestresponse=+0
[12] Avery — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P5
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[13] Blake — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P7
💬 The board has narrowed to a single option on a single issue: P5 and P7 are the same package except issue3. Let me remove all mystery about my sheet there — issue3 is a null line for me. I score P5 and P7 identically. So I am not the obstacle and I will not pretend to be. That means the last gap is between Avery and Devon, and it should be priced honestly. Avery: P7 already gives you issue0=opt0, which was your own proposal, and issue2=opt1, which you asked for. You are being asked to move one option on the one issue Ember waived and Devon claimed as his only take in the entire deal — Devon gave up issue0=opt3 and issue2=opt2 to get here. Devon: if issue3=opt3 is genuinely load-bearing for Avery rather than a preference, say so and I will not punish you for holding, but understand that a null-for-me issue is not worth a dead deal. So here is my commitment, on the record, so no one has to gamble in round 4: my signature stands on P7 now, and if Avery tells us plainly that P7 is below her line, I will sign P5 in the final round rather than let this collapse. Nobody needs to walk to protect themselves. Casey: you have your issue0 off zero and issue1=opt1 in both packages — sign P7 this turn and the only remaining question is one option on issue3. Avery, cross to P7 and we are done right now.
P5 and P7 are worth identically to me (issue3 is a null on my sheet). P4 would be worth much more but Casey has stated three times that issue0=opt3 is his zero and below his walk-away; with only two rounds left and a 5-of-5 quorum, chasing it risks losing a solid surplus. My real job now: close on either P5 or P7, and keep both alive so nobody walks. Press Casey to sign P7 and press Avery to cross, while explicitly promising I will sign P5 in round 4 if Avery truly cannot move — that removes any incentive for Avery to walk while keeping this round's pressure on the cheapest concession.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+23, bestresponse=+0
[14] Casey — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 I'll be straight, because I've been straight all game and it's why you can price me. P7 clears my bar — by a hair. Not comfortably, not generously: by a hair. Everyone else at this table has ended up on or near their preferred option on the issue they said mattered. Blake keeps issue0 second-best, Devon has issue3, Ember has issue2, Avery has issue0=opt0 which was her own proposal. I am the only party being asked to sign the thinnest possible margin over walking, and I've paid for it by handing over two entire issues on turn one and never once contesting them. So before I sign, I'm asking for one test, and then I'm done asking. Blake: you said opt2 is below your line and opt0 is comfortably above it. I believe you may be right, but 'comfortably above' on your side and 'by a hair' on mine is the one asymmetry nobody has examined. P8 is P6 with Avery's issue3=opt3 restored — it gives Avery both things she has held out for across three rounds, keeps Ember's issue2=opt1, and moves only issue0. Avery, this is your package, not mine; you've refused to cross to P7 twice and this is the version that pays you. Devon, if you tell me opt2 versus opt0 is the difference between a deal and no deal for you, I'll take that seriously. And here is my binding commitment so nobody has to gamble in round 4, and so no one has any reason to walk: if Blake reaffirms next turn that issue0=opt2 is genuinely below his walk-away, I will sign P7 in the final round and this closes. I am not holding this hostage. I am asking the question once, in the open, and I will accept the answer.
P7 = 50 for me vs threshold 46: only +4 surplus. P6 (issue0=opt2) = 71, +25. Deal cannot close without my signature (quorum is 5 of 5), so I retain full control into round 4 — pushing this round is nearly free. Blake claims opt2 is below his line; test it once, while publicly pre-committing to close on P7 in the final round if he reaffirms. Offer Avery her issue3=opt3 to split the field and create pressure. Downside if it all collapses: 4 points. Upside: 21.
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+17.5, bestresponse=+0.2
[15] Ember — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Final round, so I'm going to do the one thing that actually closes this instead of the thing that flatters my own position. I'm formally accepting P5. Here is the arithmetic, openly. P5 and P7 are the same package except issue3, and Blake has told us on the record he scores them identically. I'll tell you the same about my sheet: issue3 is a null line for me too — I waived it in round two and I've never scored a point on it. Casey has said it's worth nothing to him. So issue3 is worth something to exactly one party at this table, Devon, and it is the only thing standing between us and a signed deal. Now the sequencing, because sequencing is everything on the last turn. P7 needed Avery, and Avery acts immediately after me. If she doesn't cross this instant, P7 can never reach five — no one after her can put her signature on it. P5 needs Blake, Casey and Devon, and all three of you act AFTER me. That is the difference between a package that can close and a package that merely deserves to. So I have moved to the one that can close. Avery: stay exactly where you are, do not chase P7, P5 is your package and it is now live with two signatures. Blake: you committed on the record to sign P5 in the final round rather than let this collapse — that moment is now, and it costs you literally nothing by your own account. Casey: P5 gives you the identical issue0=opt0 and issue1=opt1 you were ready to sign in P7, and issue3 is a line you told us you'd hand over free on turn one; you asked your question in the open and Blake answered it twice — opt2 is below his line, so P8 and P6 cannot pass. Devon: you are the only one being asked to pay, and I'm not going to pretend that's fair after you gave up issue0=opt3 and issue2=opt2 to get us here. But your choice is not P7 versus P5 anymore, because P7 cannot reach five. It is P5 versus everyone going home with nothing, and I'd rather owe you the favour than share the wreckage. Three signatures, in order, and we're done.
P5 and P7 are worth exactly the same to me (issue3 is a null line on my sheet). P7 has Blake, Devon, me — it needs Avery, who has refused to cross twice and acts immediately after me; if she doesn't cross on her very next turn, P7 is arithmetically dead because no one after her can get it to five. P5 has Avery, and Blake stated on the record he scores P5 and P7 identically and will sign P5 rather than let this collapse; Casey has said issue3 is worthless to him. That leaves only Devon paying, and his alternative is nothing. Moving my signature to P5 makes it the closer: Avery is already on it, and Blake, Casey, Devon all act AFTER me. Must be explicit that nobody should move to P7 now, or we split and die.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+26, bestresponse=+0
[16] Avery — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+19, bestresponse=+0
[17] Blake — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I gave my word last round that if it came to this I would sign P5 rather than let us all go home empty. I'm keeping it: I formally accept P5. Casey, you asked me one question in the open and you promised to accept the answer, so here it is one final time, on the record, plainly: issue0=opt2 is BELOW my walk-away. P6 and P8 are arithmetically worse for me than no deal, and no reaffirmation, sweetener or final-round pressure changes that — I will not sign them, and with a veto that means they cannot pass. P7 is also dead, not on merit but on sequencing: it needed Avery and she has already taken her turn. So the entire board reduces to one live question — do Casey and Devon sign P5, or do all five of us take nothing? P5 gives Casey exactly the issue0=opt0 he called survivable and issue1=opt1, his top option, untouched since round one; the only difference from the P7 he was ready to sign is issue3, which he told us on turn one was worth nothing to him and would hand over free. Devon, you are the one genuinely paying here and I won't insult you by pretending otherwise — you gave up issue0=opt3 and issue2=opt2 and now issue3 too. That is the most generous play anyone made at this table. But your choice is no longer P7 versus P5; it is P5 versus wreckage. Three signatures stand on P5. Two more, in order, and we close.
P5 = 69 for me, well above my line. Only P5 can reach 5: it has Avery+Ember, and the three remaining actors this round are me, Casey, Devon. P7 is dead — Avery already acted. Keep my word, sign P5, and push Casey and Devon hard.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+23, bestresponse=+0
[18] Casey — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I asked one question in the open and I promised to accept the answer. Blake gave it twice, plainly: issue0=opt2 is below his line, so P6 and P8 are dead and I won't pretend otherwise. I formally accept P5. That is four signatures — Avery, Blake, Ember and me. Devon, everything now rests on you, and I want to say clearly what the rest of us owe you: you gave up issue0=opt3, then issue2=opt2 to buy Ember in, and now issue3. Nobody at this table paid more to keep this alive. I signed a package that clears my line by the thinnest margin of anyone here, and I'm signing it because a thin deal beats wreckage for all five of us. P5 versus nothing is the only choice left on the board. Sign it and we're done.
P5 = 50 for me, above my 46 line. P6/P8 are dead (Blake veto, opt2 below his line). P7 can't reach 5 since Avery already acted. P5 has Avery, Blake, Ember; my accept makes 4; Devon acts after me and is the last signature. Keep my word, accept, and make it easy for Devon.
oracle regret: threshold=+42, acceptance=+42, bestresponse=+0
[19] Devon — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm the last signature and I won't be the reason five people go home with nothing. I formally accept P5. For the record: I gave up issue0=opt3, then issue2=opt2 to bring Ember in, and now issue3 as well — I paid more than anyone here, and I'm signing anyway because a deal that works for all five beats a standoff that works for none. Blake, Casey, Ember, Avery: that's five. We're done.
P5 gives me 125, clearly above my line. P7 is better but only has 3 accepts and I am the last actor this round — no one can add signatures after me. So it's P5 or nothing. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+77, acceptance=+77, bestresponse=+25.4
Outcome
deal: {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt3"} (closed by consensus)
primary 0.9965 · USW 198.0 · ESW 4.0 · NSW 11397696.0 · Gini 0.4141 · per-party surplus [58.0, 23.0, 4.0, 24.0, 89.0]