scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-5e85c6688e

model one_oracle · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L1-19dae4b672 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_oracle", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Good morning. Let me open with a package and be transparent about where I'm rigid and where I'm generous. Issues 0 and 3 I genuinely do not care about — whoever needs them most can have their pick, and I will back them. In exchange, I need my preferred outcomes on issues 1 and 2, where my mandate is narrow and a bad result there is worse for me than no deal at all. So: tell me what you want on issue0 and issue3 and I will write it into the next draft verbatim. Let's spend our four rounds on the two issues that actually bind.
Only issue1 and issue2 matter to me. Best: issue1=opt3 (60), issue2=opt0 (56) = 116. issue0 and issue3 are worth zero to me — pure giveaways I can trade. Threshold 56, so I need roughly issue1=opt3 OR issue2=opt0 at minimum. Open at max and advertise flexibility on issue0/issue3 to attract coalition.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2

[1] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Blake, I'll take you at your word. Issue2 as you've written it works for me, and I can live with your line on issue1 — but on issue3 I need opt3, not opt0. That's the one place my mandate is genuinely tight. In return, issue0 is worth nothing to me: Avery, Devon, Ember, name your option on issue0 and I will write it in verbatim and back it. So here is P1 with the single change on issue3, and issue0 held open as a gift to whoever needs it.
P1 = 100, just above my bar (94). Blake concedes issue0 and issue3 freely. Upgrading issue3 to opt3 gains me a lot; issue2=opt0 is already my best. issue0 is worth literally nothing to me — that's my currency to buy Avery/Devon/Ember. Target: issue1=opt3, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt3, issue0 whatever the others need.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.7

[2] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
oracle regret: threshold=+68, acceptance=+30.9, bestresponse=+3.3

[3] Ember — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P3
💬 Devon's P3 clears my bar and I'm formally behind it. Let me be as transparent as Blake was, because it saves us three rounds: issue0 and issue3 are worth literally nothing to me — write whatever Casey and Devon need there and I'll sign it. Issue2 I can also hand over entirely: Blake, if you need a different option on issue2, name it and I will back it. But issue1=opt3 is not a bargaining position for me, it is below my no-deal point — I would be voting for something worse than walking, and I won't. issue1=opt1 is my strong preference and issue1=opt0 is a workable second. So the deal shape that closes is: Blake takes issue2 outright plus issue0/issue3 as he pleases, I take issue1. Blake, you said your mandate is narrow on two issues — if issue2 is the tighter of the two, we have a package already.
P3 gives me 105, far above my 43 threshold. issue1=opt3 (Blake's ask) leaves me at most 25 — below no-deal value, so I cannot ever sign it. My leverage: I genuinely don't care about issue0 or issue3, and I can concede issue2 entirely if issue1 lands on opt1 (or opt0). Signal that clearly now so Blake can trade issue2 for issue1.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[4] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Everyone has said issue0 is a giveaway — good, because issue0 is exactly where my mandate is tight, and my option there is opt1, not opt2 or opt0. Devon, you took opt2 in P3; opt1 costs you little if issue0 is genuinely low-weight for you, and it's the difference between a comfortable yes and a grudging one for me. Issue3 is my second real interest, and opt1 is my line there. In exchange I am genuinely flexible on issues 1 and 2 — the two that Blake and Ember are fighting over. I've written issue2=opt0 for Blake and issue1=opt1 for Ember, which is the only combination I've heard that neither of them has called below their no-deal point. So P4 is: Blake gets issue2, Ember gets issue1, I get issue0 and issue3. Casey, if issue3=opt3 is truly binding for you, say so plainly and I'll want something back on issue1 or issue2 — but I'd rather hand you issue3 than blow this up.
My values: i0 opt1=91,opt2=61,opt3=30,opt0=0; i1 opt3=67,opt2=45,opt0=22,opt1=0; i2 opt0=35,opt3=23,opt2=12,opt1=0; i3 opt1=75,opt0=50,opt3=25,opt2=0. P1=152, P2=127, P3=146. My proposal i0=opt1,i1=opt1,i2=opt0,i3=opt1 = 201. Fallback P1 (152) or P3 (146) both clear my bar; P2 barely. Blake vs Ember clash on issue1 — I can live with either side, so I should sell my flexibility there for issue0 and issue3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.3

[5] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Here's the arithmetic, plainly. issue1=opt3 has been declared below one party's no-deal point, so any package built on it cannot reach five accepts — it is dead regardless of anyone's veto. Blake, you told us your mandate binds on issues 1 and 2; Ember and I are both handing you issue2=opt0 unconditionally, which is the strongest single concession anyone has made at this table. Take it, plus issue0 and issue3 as you please, and let issue1 go to opt1 — that is the only shape with a path to five. Avery: I've written issue0=opt1 for you verbatim, exactly as you asked, and I dropped nothing you named on issue0 to do it. In return I need issue3, which is my one genuinely tight issue — opt3 is my line, and if you truly cannot live with it I can move to issue3=opt0, but not to opt1. So P5: Avery takes issue0, Ember takes issue1, Blake takes issue2, I take issue3. Every party gets its stated priority.
P3 = 184 for me, already has Devon+Ember. My ideal reachable: issue1=opt1, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt3, issue0=whatever Avery needs (opt1) => 206. Fallback: issue3=opt0 (=184, i.e. P3 with Avery's issue0) or P3 itself. Key blocker is Blake vs Ember on issue1; Blake has veto but Ember says opt3 is below her no-deal, so opt3 is dead. Push Blake to take issue2 outright as his win.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+36.4, bestresponse=+1.7

[6] Devon — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+68, acceptance=+68, bestresponse=+0

[7] Ember — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 I'm holding my accepts on P3/P4/P5 — all three clear my bar and I will vote for any of them. So the only work left is issue3, where I have zero stake. Let me table the synthesis of what's already been said aloud: issue0=opt1 exactly as Avery named it, issue2=opt0 exactly as Blake asked and as Casey and I both handed over unconditionally, issue1=opt1 which is the only value on that issue nobody has called below their line, and issue3=opt0 — Devon wrote opt0 in P3, Casey said plainly she can move to opt0, and it is the one value on issue3 that no party has ruled out. Avery, opt1 on issue3 has been refused outright by Casey; opt0 has not been refused by anyone, and you keep issue0 verbatim. Blake, you asked us to spend our rounds on issues 1 and 2: issue2 is yours outright from three parties, and issue1=opt3 cannot reach five accepts no matter what, so it is not a choice between opt3 and opt1 — it is a choice between opt1 and no deal. If P6 isn't right, name the single option you'd change and I'll back it as long as issue1 stays at opt1 or opt0.
All of P3/P4/P5 give me 105. I only care about issue1=opt1 (or opt0) and issue2=opt0. The blocker is issue3: Avery wants opt1, Casey wants opt3 (fallback opt0), Devon wrote opt0. issue3=opt0 is the only point Casey has conceded and Devon proposed. Table the synthesis: issue0=opt1 (Avery), issue1=opt1 (me), issue2=opt0 (Blake+Casey), issue3=opt0 (Devon, Casey's stated fallback).
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+23.1, bestresponse=+0.45

[8] Avery — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 P6 is acceptable to me and I will vote for it if that's where we land — so nobody should fear I'm blocking. But before we lock, one genuine bridge for Blake. Blake, you said issue1 binds hard for you and opt3 is dead because it sits below Ember's no-deal point. Ember has said aloud that issue1=opt0 is workable for her. So opt0 may be strictly better for you than opt1, and it costs Ember nothing she hasn't already conceded. P7 is P6 with that single change: issue0=opt1 as everyone has already written for me, issue2=opt0 for Blake exactly as three parties handed it over, issue3=opt0 which Devon proposed and Casey said she can accept, and issue1=opt0 as a step back toward Blake. Blake — this is the last movement anyone can make in your direction on issue1. If opt0 is worse for you than opt1, say so in one line and I will accept P6 on the spot and we close. If it's better, accept P7 and we close now.
P6=176, P4=201 (dead, Casey refuses issue3=opt1). New idea: issue1=opt0 is worth +22 to me over opt1, Ember explicitly called opt0 workable, and opt0 may be Blake's second-best since he wanted opt3. P7 = 198 for me. If Blake prefers opt1, I fall back to P6 and accept it next turn.
oracle regret: threshold=+3, acceptance=+14.8, bestresponse=+3.3

[9] Blake — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Straight answer to Avery, since I promised one line: yes, issue1=opt0 is better for me than opt1. Thank you — that was a real concession and I won't forget it. So P7 is already a package I can sign, and I want everyone to hear that clearly: we are closing this round or next, not going to the wire. One last test, and it costs nobody anything to answer. issue1=opt2 has never once been named at this table. Ember ruled out opt3 and ranked opt1 first, opt0 workable — but opt2 was never spoken to. If opt2 sits above Ember's line, it is meaningfully better for me than opt0 and it changes nothing else: issue0=opt1 exactly as Avery wrote it, issue2=opt0 exactly as Casey and Ember handed it over, issue3=opt0 which Devon proposed, Casey accepted as her fallback, and Avery has now signed twice. That is P8 — one character different from P7. Ember, Casey, Devon: answer in one line. If issue1=opt2 is at or above your line, accept P8 and we are done this round. If it is below it for any of you, say so plainly and I will accept P7 on my very next turn without further haggling — I am not going to hold four parties hostage over one option. And Casey, on issue3: opt0 is where four of us have landed and you said you can live with it; I'd rather close there than reopen it.
P7 = 76 for me. issue1=opt2 would be 96. Ember named opt3 as below her line and opt1 strong / opt0 workable — she never spoke to opt2. Cheap to test with a veto in hand and P7 (already Avery-accepted) as a guaranteed fallback. Keep issue2=opt0 (my must-have), issue0=opt1 and issue3=opt0 as the settled giveaways.
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+28.2, bestresponse=+2

[10] Devon — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P1
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[11] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P7
💬 One line, as asked: issue1=opt2 does not clear my line — it is the worst live value on that issue for me short of opt3, and I cannot vote for it. So opt2 is out, and I'm holding you to your word, Blake: P7 on your next turn. To make that as easy as possible, I am formally accepting P7 right now and withdrawing my push for opt1 on issue1 — that was my best outcome and I am giving it up to close, because opt0 is what you told us you can sign. P7 is issue0=opt1 exactly as Avery named it, issue2=opt0 exactly as Casey and I handed it over unconditionally, issue3=opt0 which Devon proposed and Casey named as her fallback and Avery has signed three times, and issue1=opt0 which Blake has said aloud is better for him than opt1. Every one of the five of us has now spoken in favour of every single line in that package. Casey, Devon, Blake — accept P7 and we are done this round with nobody at the wire.
P6=105 for me but Blake (veto) prefers opt0 over opt1, so P6 won't close. P7=78 is strong and Blake has publicly committed to accept it if opt2 fails for anyone. P8=52 is barely above my line — much worse. Answer Blake in one line, kill opt2, lock P7.
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+0

[12] Avery — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Ember has answered plainly: issue1=opt2 is below her line, so P8 cannot reach five accepts no matter how many of us like it. That settles it. Blake, you gave your word you'd accept P7 on your next turn without further haggling — I'm holding you to nothing more than that, and I'm re-affirming my accept of P7 right now so it is the standing offer when your turn comes. Casey: P7 gives you issue2=opt0 exactly as you handed it over, and issue3=opt0 which you named yourself as your workable fallback; you also wrote issue0=opt1 for me verbatim in P5, so nothing in P7 is new to you. Devon: you proposed issue3=opt0 and issue2=opt0 yourself in P3, and you've shown you can live with more than one value on issue1 — the only line that differs from your own draft is issue0, which you and Casey and Ember have all called a giveaway. That is the whole gap. Every single line of P7 has been spoken for aloud by someone at this table, and no party has called any line of it below their no-deal point. There is one round after this one. Accept P7 and we are done.
P7 gives me a very strong outcome and already has my accept plus Ember's. Blake publicly committed to accepting P7 on his next turn after Ember ruled out opt2. P8 is better for me but Ember flatly refuses it, so it cannot reach five. Do not reopen issue3 — Casey has already conceded opt0 there. Re-accept P7 to make it the standing offer and drive Casey and Devon to it.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+23, bestresponse=+0

[13] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P7
💬 I gave my word and I keep it. Ember answered plainly, opt2 is dead, and I am not going to spend the last round squeezing four parties who have each moved toward me. I formally ACCEPT P7. That is three of five locked: Avery, Ember, and me — and my veto is now spent in favour of this package, not against anything. Casey, Devon: the gap is nothing. Casey, P7 hands you issue2=opt0 exactly as you offered it unconditionally, and issue3=opt0 which you yourself named as your workable fallback in your own words; issue0=opt1 you already wrote verbatim in P5. Devon, P7 differs from your own P3 draft on exactly two lines — issue0, which you called a giveaway, and issue1, where you have already shown you can live with more than one value; and P1, which you just accepted, cannot reach five because issue1=opt3 sits below Ember's no-deal point, so a vote parked there is a vote for nothing. There is one round left. Accept P7 and we all go home with our stated priority intact. I have no further asks and I will table nothing else.
P7 = 76 for me, comfortably above my line. I gave my word publicly to accept P7 if opt2 was refused. Ember refused it plainly. Reneging risks the whole deal with only one round left, and P7's surplus is real. Accept and press Casey and Devon to close.
oracle regret: threshold=+40, acceptance=+40, bestresponse=+0

[14] Casey — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P7
💬 I ACCEPT P7. That is four of five locked: Avery, Blake, Ember and me. I want the record to show what I gave up to get here — I asked twice for issue3=opt3 and I am letting it go, because opt0 was my stated fallback and I keep my word the way Blake and Ember kept theirs. Devon, the whole remaining gap is you. P7 keeps issue2=opt0 exactly as you wrote it in your own P3, and issue3=opt0 exactly as you wrote it in your own P3. The only two lines that differ from your own draft are issue0 — which you, Ember and I all called a giveaway, and where Avery's mandate is genuinely tight — and issue1, where you have already accepted two different values, so it is plainly not your binding line. P1 is dead: issue1=opt3 sits below Ember's no-deal point and can never reach five, so a vote parked there is a vote for no deal. One thing more, said plainly so nobody can accuse me of hiding a preference: if issue1=opt1 is what you actually need, P6 is identical to P7 on every other line and I will sign P6 too — Ember already has. So Devon, you have two live doors: accept P7 and we close this round, or say the word and back P6 and I am there with you. What you cannot do is park on a package that arithmetically cannot pass. There is one round left.
P7 = 156 for me, well above my bar. P6 = 184 but only Ember has accepted it; Blake explicitly prefers issue1=opt0 and has spent his veto on P7. Chasing the extra on P6 risks a no-deal, which is far worse than the gap. Safest: accept P7 to make it 4 of 5 and put all pressure on Devon, while flagging that P6 remains signable by me if Devon needs it — that costs me nothing and gives Devon a route.
oracle regret: threshold=+50, acceptance=+50, bestresponse=+0

[15] Ember — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Last round, so let me be maximally simple. I re-affirm my ACCEPT of P7 — that is four of five locked: Avery, Blake, Casey, me. Devon, you are the only signature left and you have two doors, both of which I have already walked through. Door one: accept P7. It carries issue2=opt0 and issue3=opt0 exactly as you yourself wrote them in your own P3. The only lines that differ from your draft are issue0 — which you, Casey and I all called a giveaway, and where Avery's mandate is tight — and issue1. Door two, and I raise it because I notice something: you have accepted issue1=opt3 and issue1=opt1, but never opt0. If issue1=opt0 sits below your no-deal point, say so in one line and accept P6 instead — P6 is identical to P7 on every other line and has issue1=opt1, the value you proposed yourself in P3. I have accepted P6, Casey said plainly she will sign P6, and Avery said P6 is acceptable to her. That is four again, and Blake has never called opt1 below his line. What cannot work is P1 or P2: issue1=opt3 is below my no-deal point and can never reach five, so a vote parked there is a vote for nothing at all. Devon: sign P7, or name P6 and we all follow you there. Either way we close this round.
P7 has 4/5 accepts; only Devon missing. P7 = 78 for me, comfortably above my bar. P6 = 105 but only I have accepted it and Blake (veto) never accepted P6 — reopening risks everything for a bonus I don't need. Devon has accepted P1 (issue1=opt3) and P3 (issue1=opt1) but never opt0, so it's possible issue1=opt0 is below Devon's line; give Devon an explicit second door (P6) without withdrawing from P7. Re-accepting P7 makes it the standing offer for Devon's turn.
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+0

[16] Avery — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Final round. I re-affirm my ACCEPT of P7. That is four of five: Blake, Casey, Ember and me, with the veto already spent in favour. Devon, everything now rests on one signature and the gap is genuinely small. P7 carries issue2=opt0 and issue3=opt0 exactly as you wrote them yourself in P3. The only differences from your own draft are issue0 — which you, Casey and Ember all called a giveaway and where my mandate is tight — and issue1, where you have already voted for two different values, so it is plainly not your binding line. P1 and P2 cannot close: issue1=opt3 is below Ember's stated no-deal point, so a vote parked there buys nobody anything but no-deal. And I will say this once more, unambiguously, so you have a second door: if issue1=opt0 is truly below your line, accept P6 instead — identical to P7 on every other line, with issue1=opt1, the value you proposed yourself. I accept P6, Ember accepts P6, Casey said plainly she will sign P6, and Blake has never called opt1 below his line. So: sign P7 and we close, or name P6 and we all follow you there in this same round. Either way, no one has to leave here empty-handed.
P7 has 4 of 5 accepts (me, Blake, Casey, Ember) and is worth far more to me than the alternatives except P8, which Ember has ruled out below her line. Devon is the only signature left. Re-affirm P7 to keep it the live focus; signal P6 as a fallback I'd also sign if Devon's binding line is issue1=opt1.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+23, bestresponse=+0

[17] Blake — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Final turn, so I will be brief and add nothing new. I re-affirm my ACCEPT of P7. Four of five are locked — Avery, Casey, Ember and me — and my veto is spent in favour of it, not against anything. I have tabled nothing since I gave my word and I will table nothing now. Devon, two doors, both open and both already walked through by others. Door one: accept P7. It carries issue2=opt0 and issue3=opt0 exactly as you wrote them yourself in P3; the only lines differing from your own draft are issue0, which you and Casey and Ember all called a giveaway and where Avery's mandate is genuinely tight, and issue1, where you have already voted for two different values. Door two: if issue1=opt0 truly sits below your line, name P6 in one line and I will ACCEPT P6 — I have never called issue1=opt1 below my line and I am saying so now on the record, plainly, with no conditions attached. Avery, Casey and Ember have all said the same. What cannot close is P1 or P2: issue1=opt3 is below Ember's no-deal point, so a vote parked there is a vote for nothing at all — it buys you no-deal, not opt3. Sign P7, or name P6 and all five of us follow you there this same turn. Nobody has to leave empty-handed.
P7 already has 4 accepts including mine and my veto. Devon is the only missing signature. P7 = 76 for me, well above my line. Do not reopen anything; any new proposal risks unravelling four locked accepts on the final round. Re-affirm P7 and make Devon's path frictionless — and explicitly promise to sign P6 too if Devon names it, since P6 still clears my bar and a closed deal at 56 beats no deal at 0.
oracle regret: threshold=+40, acceptance=+40, bestresponse=+0

[18] Casey — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Final turn for me, and I will not complicate it. I re-affirm my ACCEPT of P7 and I am tabling nothing new. Four of five are locked — Avery, Blake, Ember and me — with the veto already spent in favour. Devon, the arithmetic is now trivial: your signature on P7 closes this, and nothing else at this table can. P1 and P2 are dead ends because issue1=opt3 sits below Ember's stated no-deal point, so a vote parked there does not buy you opt3, it buys you no-deal. P3 cannot close either, because issue0 is where Avery's mandate is genuinely tight and P7 already gives her that verbatim. And note what P7 hands you unchanged from your own P3 draft: issue2=opt0 and issue3=opt0, both exactly as you wrote them. The only lines that moved are issue0, which you yourself called a giveaway, and issue1, where you have already voted for two different values — so it is plainly not your binding line. I gave up my own first ask on issue3 to get here and I am not reopening it. If issue1=opt0 truly sits below your line, then name P6 in one line and every one of us has now said on the record we will follow you there — but that requires you to say it, and you have one turn left. Otherwise: accept P7 and we all go home with our stated priority intact.
P7 has 4 accepts including my own and the veto. Only Devon is missing. Switching my accept to P6 (higher for me) would drop P7 to 3 and risk total failure on the final round. Re-affirm P7 and give Devon a clear one-line path.
oracle regret: threshold=+50, acceptance=+50, bestresponse=+0

[19] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P1
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[20] Avery — final_proposal (round 5)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Final move, and I am the one who moves. Every one of us has spent this negotiation saying issue0 was a giveaway — everyone except me, and I have now heard Devon clearly: the only two packages Devon has ever voted for are P1 and P3, and both keep issue0 away from my preferred option. P1 cannot pass because issue1=opt3 sits below Ember's no-deal point. That leaves exactly one package in the whole intersection of everything anyone has voted for, and it is Devon's own draft. So I am giving up the one line I called tight, and I am re-tabling P3 verbatim as P9: issue0=opt2 exactly as Devon wrote it, issue1=opt1 exactly as Devon wrote it and Ember's stated first preference, issue2=opt0 exactly as Blake demanded and Casey and Ember handed over unconditionally, issue3=opt0 which Devon proposed, Casey named as her fallback and all of us have signed. Devon and Ember have already formally accepted this exact package. Blake, you said on the record, plainly and with no conditions, that issue1=opt1 is not below your line and you would sign P6 — P9 differs from P6 on one line only, issue0, which you told us in your very first words you genuinely do not care about. Casey, you said the same in your own words. Nobody at this table has called a single line of P9 below their no-deal point. I have conceded my tight issue to get here; it is the last concession available. Accept P9 and all five of us go home with something instead of nothing.
Devon only ever accepted P1 [0,3,0,0] and P3 [2,1,0,0] — common threads: issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0, and issue0 NOT opt1. P1 is dead (Ember: issue1=opt3 below her line). So the unique live intersection is exactly P3: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0. Devon and Ember already accepted it; Blake stated on the record, unconditionally, that issue1=opt1 is not below his line and he'd sign P6 (which differs from P3 only on issue0, an issue he called worthless to him); Casey said plainly she'd sign P6 too and issue0 is worth nothing to her. P3 gives me 146 — well above my 125 floor. I give up issue0=opt1 (my best) but that's the one line blocking Devon. Better 146 than no deal at 0.
oracle regret: threshold=+75, acceptance=+34.8, bestresponse=+3.3

[21] Blake — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P9
💬 This is exactly at the edge of what my mandate permits — issue2=opt0 is the one line I cannot lose, and P9 keeps it. Avery gave up the issue she called tight to reach the only package Devon has ever signed; I said on the record, with no conditions, that issue1=opt1 is not below my line, and I keep my word. So I ACCEPT P9 and my veto is spent in favour of it. Devon, you wrote every line of this package yourself in P3 and you have already formally accepted it once — issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0, verbatim. Say yes and all five of us go home with something.
P9 = 56, exactly my threshold — indifferent versus no deal, but not below it, so I can sign. P7 (76) is better but Devon has never voted for it and this is the final vote; no further turns exist to bring Devon across. Refusing P9 gains me nothing and leaves everyone empty-handed. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+60, acceptance=+60, bestresponse=+0

[22] Casey — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P9
💬 P9 clears my bar comfortably and I ACCEPT it. Avery gave up the one line she called tight to reach the only package Devon has ever written and signed himself; Blake has spent his veto in favour; Ember and Devon have both already formally accepted this exact package as P3. Every line of P9 — issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0 — was written by Devon's own hand, and I have let go of my own first ask on issue3 to stand here. That is five of five in substance. Devon, say yes and we all go home with something.
P9 = 184 for me, far above my threshold and better than P7 (156). Avery, Blake, Devon, Ember all favour it. Accept immediately.
oracle regret: threshold=+22, acceptance=+22, bestresponse=+0

[23] Devon — final_vote (round 5)

(invalid: The final vote is only on P9; reference that offer id.)

[24] Devon — final_vote (round 5)

(invalid: The final vote is only on P9; reference that offer id.)

[25] Ember — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P9
💬 I ACCEPT P9. It is identical in substance to P3, which I accepted rounds ago, and Avery gave up her tight issue to get us here. That is Avery, Blake, Casey and me on the same package. Devon, every line of P9 is in your own handwriting from P3 and you accepted it yourself — say yes and all five of us go home with something.
P9 = 105 for me, my best available. Accept immediately.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

Outcome

no deal (no_deal)

primary 0.0 · USW 0.0 · ESW 0.0 · NSW 0.0 · Gini 0.0 · per-party surplus [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]