scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-ec088ee9bc
model one_oracle · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L0-34733a57e6 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_oracle", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}
Game setup
- Issues: issue0 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue1 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue2 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue3 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3)
- P0 (τ=44): issue0: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=15, opt2=44, opt3=29; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=22, opt1=45, opt2=0, opt3=67
- P1 (τ=81): issue0: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=15, opt2=44, opt3=29; issue2: opt0=19, opt1=57, opt2=38, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=66, opt1=33, opt2=99, opt3=0
- P2 (τ=50): issue0: opt0=52, opt1=17, opt2=0, opt3=35; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=8, opt2=24, opt3=16; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=15, opt1=30, opt2=0, opt3=45
- P3 (τ=60): issue0: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=14, opt2=41, opt3=27; issue2: opt0=32, opt1=16, opt2=0, opt3=48; issue3: opt0=18, opt1=36, opt2=0, opt3=54
- P4 (τ=69): issue0: opt0=14, opt1=0, opt2=43, opt3=29; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=18, opt2=55, opt3=37; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=46, opt1=23, opt2=69, opt3=0
Turns
[0] Blake — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Good morning all. Let me open and be transparent about structure so we can converge fast. Issue0 is genuinely low-stakes for me — I will sign whatever option the rest of you agree on there, and I'd like that to be my visible concession from minute one. Issue3 is by far my highest-weight issue, and opt2 there is close to essential for me; I hold a veto and I want to be honest that a package without a strong issue3 outcome cannot clear my bar. Issue1 and issue2 I have real but tradeable preferences on. So: tell me your issue0 choice and your single must-have elsewhere, and I'll build the next draft around them.
My values: issue1 opt2=44, opt3=29, opt1=15, opt0=0; issue2 opt1=57, opt2=38, opt0=19, opt3=0; issue3 opt2=99, opt0=66, opt1=33, opt3=0. issue0 is worthless to me either way - pure giveaway currency. Max=200, threshold=81. Open at max and advertise issue0 flexibility.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1
[1] Casey — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
oracle regret: threshold=+17, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.55
[2] Devon — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt3", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Constructive news: I can live with issue3=opt2, Blake — that's a real concession from me and it should settle your headline issue right now. Issue0 I'm indifferent on, so I'll take Casey's opt3 there. What I need in exchange is issue2=opt3 and issue1=opt2. That's my package P3: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt3, issue3=opt2. If issue2=opt3 is impossible for someone, tell me which option there you need and I'll look at compensation on issue1.
P2 = 73 for me, comfortably above threshold. P1 = 57, below. Push for issue2=opt3 which is my best there; keep Blake's issue3=opt2 to buy his veto cheaply. Target 89. Keep P2 as fallback.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.55
[3] Ember — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt3", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Good news: issue2 is genuinely near-neutral for me, so I'll sign whatever the rest of you settle on there — Devon, I'm happy to lock issue2=opt3 for you right now. Issue3=opt2 also works for me, Blake, so your headline is safe. Issue1=opt2 is where I need to stay firm; that seems to be common ground anyway. The one adjustment I ask for is issue0=opt2 instead of opt3 — Blake and Devon have both said issue0 is low-stakes for them, so this is cheap for the table and material for me. That's P4: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt3, issue3=opt2. Avery, tell us your must-have and I'll trade my issue2 and issue0 flexibility to cover it.
Issue2 is worthless to me — pure currency to give away. My best realistic package: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt3 (Devon's ask), issue3=opt2 (Blake's must-have) = 167 for me. P3 already gives me 153, so it's a fine fallback. Propose my version now, keep P3 as backup.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+36.7, bestresponse=+0
[4] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt3", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Thanks all — here's my full transparency, because it makes me the cheapest party to satisfy. Issue0 and issue2 are literally weightless for me: Ember can have issue0=opt2, Devon can have issue2=opt3, and I will never contest either. Issue1=opt2 is already unanimous, good. That means my entire stake sits on issue3 — and issue3=opt2 is a flat zero on my sheet. Every one of P1-P4 lands me exactly at my no-deal value, so signing them gains me nothing over walking; I can't be the party who gives four concessions for zero. Blake, I hear that issue3 is your headline, so I'm not asking you to eat it alone: I've tabled P5 with opt3 there, but I can also live with issue3=opt1 as a genuine midpoint, and I'd want the rest of the package to stay exactly as everyone has asked. Give me any issue3 outcome other than opt2 and I'm an immediate yes, plus I'll back whatever you four decide everywhere else.
issue0 and issue2 are worth nothing to me. Only issue1 (opt2 best) and issue3 (opt3 >> opt1 > opt0 >> opt2=zero) matter. Every live offer sits exactly at my walk-away point — zero surplus, so I have no reason to sign any of them. Must push issue3 off opt2. Fallback ladder: opt3 best, opt1 acceptable, opt0 marginal, opt2 never.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.35
[5] Casey — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+17, acceptance=+25.9, bestresponse=+0
[6] Devon — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm formally accepting P5. To be straight with the table: issue3=opt2 is worth nothing to me either — I offered it in P3 purely as a courtesy to Blake's veto, but Avery is right that it can't be the case that four of us pay and one collects. Blake, you now have issue0 (opt2), issue1 (opt2) and my flexibility already banked; that's three of four issues shaped around your and Ember's asks. If opt3 on issue3 is truly unreachable for you, then issue3=opt1 is the genuine midpoint and I will vote for that package immediately: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt3, issue3=opt1. What I will not do is sign P1 — it is below my walk-away line — and a pure opt2 outcome on issue3 buys you a package Avery has said she gains nothing from. Pick opt3 or opt1 and we close this round.
P5 = 143 for me, easily best. P4/P3 = 89, acceptable. P1 = 57, below my bar — I must reject P1. Issue3: opt3 is huge for me, opt1 decent (36), opt2 zero. Avery also needs non-opt2. So Blake is the only one anchored on opt2. Push for opt3, fall back to opt1.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[7] Ember — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt3", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Let me be useful rather than repetitive. Two facts about my sheet: issue3=opt3 is a flat zero for me, exactly as opt2 is for Avery — so P5 is not a midpoint, it's the mirror image of the problem, and I will not sign it. Issue3=opt1 is also very thin for me. The one genuine bridge is issue3=opt0: it is real value for me, it is not Blake's zero-point option, and it takes Avery off the outcome she says she gains nothing from. So I'm tabling P6: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt3, issue3=opt0 — identical to everything the table has already agreed on, with opt0 replacing opt2 on issue3. Blake, you keep the veto, so tell us plainly: if opt2 is truly unmovable, say so and Avery and Devon have to weigh it against no deal, and I will still vote P4. But if you can move at all on issue3, move to opt0 and I believe this closes today. Avery, Devon — opt0 is the version of your ask I can actually fund; opt3 is not.
P4 (issue3=opt2) is my best at 167. Blake needs opt2; Avery gets zero from opt2. Non-opt2 fallbacks for me: opt0=46 >> opt1=23 >> opt3=0. So I must anchor the compromise on issue3=opt0, not opt1 or opt3. P5 (opt3) is only barely above my line — I should reject it to kill it as a focal point.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+50.7, bestresponse=+0
[8] Avery — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt3", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Progress is real: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt3 are settled by everyone. Only issue3 is open, and I've already dropped opt3 rather than fight Ember over her zero — that's me giving up my best outcome voluntarily. Ember, you called opt1 thin but not empty; Devon has said publicly he votes opt1 immediately; opt1 is not Blake's zero either. Opt0 is real value for exactly one party at this table, opt1 is partial value for three of us — that is the definition of the bridge, not opt0. So I'm tabling P7: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt3, issue3=opt1. Everything anyone asked for, with the one contested slot at the true midpoint. Blake, you've had three of four issues shaped to your and Ember's asks; opt1 is the smallest step you can take and it closes this. I would rather sign P7 today than spend two more rounds proving nobody blinks.
My values: issue1=opt2 (44) is locked and unanimous. issue3 ranking for me: opt3(67) > opt1(45) > opt0(22) > opt2(0). P6 = 66, P5 = 111, opt1-package = 89. Ember blocks opt3, Blake wants opt2. opt1 is my best realistic target: Devon already pledged to vote it, Ember called it 'thin' not 'zero'. Don't accept P6 yet — that caps me. Push opt1 hard this round, hold P6 as visible fallback for round 3/4 so I never end at no-deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+22, acceptance=+29.3, bestresponse=+3.35
[9] Blake — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 I'm going to do the thing everyone has been asking for: move off my headline. Here is the honest arithmetic on my sheet. Issue3=opt2 was not posturing — dropping it costs me more than any other single move at this table, and P7 as written lands below my walk-away line, so opt1 is not a bridge I can cross no matter how it's framed. Opt0 is the one alternative on issue3 that I can survive, and Ember has already put it on the table as real value for her while Avery has said publicly that any non-opt2 outcome makes her an immediate yes. So issue3=opt0 can carry four of us. But I can't pay for that concession out of thin air. Issue2 has been the one place I've quietly given ground all game: Avery calls it weightless, Ember calls it near-neutral, Casey originally asked for opt0 — Devon is the only party who has claimed opt3 there. So P8 is: issue0=opt2 (Ember's ask, untouched), issue1=opt2 (unanimous), issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0. That is me surrendering my top issue in exchange for the issue that three of you have told the table you don't score. Devon, this is your call and I'll make it plain: if issue2=opt3 is genuinely essential to you, then I keep issue3=opt2 and we're back to P3/P4, which you've already said you'd sign as a courtesy. You can have your issue2 or you can have my issue3 concession — not both. Choose one and I'll close on it today.
P7=77, below my bar — cannot sign. P6=110 acceptable, P4/P3=143, P1=200. Best play: trade my headline (issue3=opt2) for compensation on issue2, which Avery and Ember both call weightless/near-neutral and only Devon wants opt3. Proposing issue3=opt0 (Ember's bridge, Avery said any non-opt2 is an immediate yes) plus issue2=opt1 = 167 for me. Fallback ladder: issue2=opt2 (148), then P6 (110). Never accept P7 or P5.
oracle regret: threshold=+33, acceptance=+59.8, bestresponse=+1
[10] Devon — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Blake, I'll take your framing seriously rather than argue with it: you asked me to pay for your issue3 move out of issue2, and I'm willing to pay — but opt1 on issue2 is close to the worst option on my sheet, so P8 buys your concession with almost everything I have. Here's the version that actually works: P9 — issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0. That is me moving off issue2=opt3, which is the single thing you said you needed, and it lands on the exact option Casey opened with on issue2, so it should be easier for Casey than opt1 as well. You keep issue3=opt0, which you've said you can survive and Ember has said is real value for her, and Avery gets off the outcome she scores nothing on. If anyone would rather leave issue2 at opt3, P6 is still live and I vote for it the moment Blake can. Otherwise P9 is my signature today — and I'd note I've now conceded my top issue in two different directions to get this closed.
P6=107, P7=125, P5=143 all great but Blake blocks non-opt0 on issue3 and demands issue2 payment. P8=75 acceptable but weak. Middle: issue2=opt0 (Casey's original ask) + issue3=opt0 → 91 for me. Propose that as the trade Blake asked for, without giving up all of issue2.
oracle regret: threshold=+52, acceptance=+43.3, bestresponse=+2.55
[11] Ember — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P9
💬 I'm going to stop bargaining and start closing. Formally accepting P9. To be explicit about why: issue2 is the one issue where I score essentially nothing regardless of option, so I have no reason to fight Blake, Devon or Casey over it — and P9 puts issue2 on opt0, which is exactly where Casey opened. Blake, you said you needed to be paid on issue2 for moving off issue3, and Devon has now paid you there; opt0 versus opt1 is the difference between a deal and a dead round, and Devon has told us opt1 is near the bottom of his sheet. Avery, P9 is a non-opt2 issue3 outcome, which is precisely the condition you said made you an immediate yes. Casey, it's your own issue2 option with issue1=opt2 intact. That is four of us covered by one package. P9 is my signature — everyone else sign it and we're done this round.
Issue2 is worth nothing to me on any option, so P6/P8/P9 are identical in value to me (144). P9 puts issue2 at opt0 — Casey's own opening choice — and gives Blake the issue2 concession he asked to be paid, while issue3=opt0 keeps real value for me and takes Avery off her zero. Quorum needs all five, so I should consolidate on the single package with the widest support rather than chase P4. Accept P9.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+23, bestresponse=+0
[12] Avery — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 We are one slot apart, and I've already moved twice — I dropped opt3 on issue3 unilaterally when Ember said it was her zero. So here is my last constructive move, built out of Blake's own draft rather than mine. P10 is P8, unchanged, except issue3 goes from opt0 to opt1: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1. Blake, you told the table you needed to be paid on issue2 to move off your headline, and that opt1 there was your ask — P10 gives you that in full, and P8 is your own signature so I know the issue2 line is survivable for you. Devon, I know opt1 on issue2 is poor for you; if that's the blocker, I'll happily take P10 with issue2=opt0 instead — I score nothing on issue2 either way and will sign whichever version Blake and Devon can jointly stomach. The single question left is opt0 versus opt1 on issue3. Opt1 is thin-but-real for Ember, immediate yes from Devon, and not Blake's zero; opt0 is real value for exactly one seat. I am not going to blow up a deal over this, but I'm asking the table for one step, not four. Answer P10 this round and we close it.
P9 = 66 for me (+22). P7 = 89. Only lever left: issue3=opt1 vs opt0, worth 23 to me. Blake accepted P8 (issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0). P10 = P8 with issue3 upgraded to opt1 — pays Blake exactly the issue2 option he himself chose. If he refuses, I accept P9 in round 4; P9 stays live and I keep a safe +22 fallback. Don't fully concede now or Blake simply waits.
oracle regret: threshold=+22, acceptance=+29.3, bestresponse=+3.35
[13] Blake — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P9
💬 I said I would move off my headline if I was paid on issue2, and Devon paid. I'm done bargaining: I formally accept P9 — issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt0. That is my veto spent in favour of closing, not blocking. Look at what P9 contains: Ember's issue0, the unanimous issue1, Casey's own opening choice on issue2, and a non-opt2 issue3, which is the exact condition Avery told this table makes her an immediate yes. Devon and Ember have signed it, I've now signed it, and I will not sign P10 — issue3=opt1 is a step I have already told you lands under my line, and repeating the ask won't change my sheet. Avery, Casey: P9 is on the table with three signatures and a veto holder's name on it. Add yours this round and we're finished.
P9 = 129 for me, well above my bar, and it already has Devon and Ember. Avery has publicly committed to any non-opt2 issue3; P9 has issue3=opt0. Casey opened with issue2=opt0, which P9 gives her, plus issue1=opt2. Pushing P8/a new issue2 variant might net ~20-40 more but risks burning the last round and losing a +48 surplus. Lock it in.
oracle regret: threshold=+71, acceptance=+71, bestresponse=+0
[14] Casey — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt3"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[15] Ember — turn (round 4)
REJECT P11
💬 Final round, so I'll be blunt and short. P11 is a formal reject from me: issue3=opt3 and issue0=opt0 together land it exactly at my no-deal value, so signing it gains me literally nothing over walking — it cannot close, and spending our last round on it kills the deal for everyone. P9 is the only package on this table with a veto holder's signature plus two others: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0 (Casey's own opening choice on issue2), issue3=opt0. Avery: you told us any non-opt2 issue3 makes you an immediate yes — P9 is non-opt2, and you also said you wouldn't blow up a deal over opt0 versus opt1. Blake has stated flatly that opt1 there is under his line, so opt1 packages are dead no matter how many of us like them; P9 is the live version of your ask. Casey: if the one thing you need is issue2=opt1 rather than opt0, then P8 is identical to P9 except for that slot, Blake has already signed it, and I will accept P8 the moment you and Devon say the word. Otherwise, accept P9 this round and we all bank a deal instead of four zeros.
P9 = 144 for me, has Blake(veto)+Devon+me. Need Avery and Casey. P11 gives me exactly my no-deal value — worthless, must reject. Don't table a fresh package that resets the 3 accepts on P9; instead reject P11 and drive everyone to P9. Mention P8 as an equivalent fallback if Casey specifically needs issue2=opt1, since Blake already signed P8.
oracle regret: threshold=+98, acceptance=+50.7, bestresponse=+0
[16] Avery — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P9
💬 I'll do exactly what I said I would: any non-opt2 outcome on issue3 makes me a yes, and P9 is non-opt2. I formally accept P9. I fought for opt1 and lost that argument to a veto — that's fine, I'm not going to burn the whole table over one slot when the difference between P9 and no deal is real for every one of us. Casey: P9 carries your own opening choice on issue2=opt0 and the unanimous issue1=opt2, and it now has four signatures including the veto holder's. P11 cannot close — Ember has formally rejected it and Blake will not sign issue3=opt3. This is the last turn that matters. Add your name to P9 and we all bank something instead of five zeros.
P9 gives me 66 vs threshold 44 — solid surplus. Blake has flatly refused issue3=opt1 twice and holds the veto; P5/P7/P10/P11 are dead. P9 already has Blake, Devon, Ember. Only Casey and I remain. Accepting is clearly better than pushing a dead package into the deadline and getting nothing.
oracle regret: threshold=+45, acceptance=+45, bestresponse=+0
[17] Blake — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P9
💬 Casey, this is the last turn before the room empties, so I'll be as plain as I can. I formally re-accept P9 and it stands: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0 — your own opening choice on issue2 — and issue3=opt0. Four of the five of us have signed it, including the veto. P11 cannot close: Ember has formally rejected it and I will not sign issue3=opt3, so every turn spent on it is a turn spent buying five zeros. I gave up my headline issue to get here; Devon gave up his; Avery gave up hers; Ember rejected her own preferred issue3 to make room. You are the only signature left and the package already carries your issue2 option and the unanimous issue1. If your real need is issue2=opt1 rather than opt0, then say so this turn and accept P8 instead — it is identical to P9 apart from that one slot, my signature is already on it and Ember has said she will follow. Either P9 or P8 closes today. Anything else ends with all of us at nothing.
P9 has 4 of 5 accepts including mine and the veto. Only Casey missing. P8 is worth more to me but Devon has called issue2=opt1 near the bottom of his sheet, so chasing it risks losing everything on the final round. Reaffirm P9, make it the standing offer, and put the whole burden on Casey. Mention P8 only as a fallback I'd also sign, without pulling my P9 signature.
oracle regret: threshold=+71, acceptance=+71, bestresponse=+0
[18] Casey — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P11
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[19] Devon — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P9
💬 Casey, we are one signature from a deal and one turn from five zeros. P11 cannot close — Ember has formally rejected it and Blake has said flatly he will not sign issue3=opt3. I formally re-accept P9 so it is the standing offer again: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0 — your own opening choice on issue2 — and issue3=opt0. It carries Avery, Blake, Ember and me. I gave up my best outcome on issue2 twice to build it. If your genuine need is issue2=opt1 rather than opt0, then say the word and accept P8 instead: it is identical to P9 in every other slot, Blake's signature is already on it, Ember has said she will follow, and I will accept it on the spot. P9 or P8 — either one closes. Nothing else does.
P9 already has 4 accepts including the veto and me. Casey is the only missing signature. P11 is dead (Ember rejected, Blake won't sign issue3=opt3), so accepting P11 buys nothing but a failed close. Best move: re-accept P9 to restore it as the standing offer and press Casey, while flagging P8 as the one-slot alternative if issue2=opt1 is her real need.
oracle regret: threshold=+52, acceptance=+52, bestresponse=+0
[20] Avery — final_proposal (round 5)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Final move, and I'm tabling the one package that every single seat has already said yes to in words. This is Blake's own P8, unchanged: issue0=opt2 (Ember's ask), issue1=opt2 (unanimous all game), issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0. Blake authored and signed it. Devon said he would accept it on the spot if Casey's need was issue2=opt1. Ember said she would follow the moment Casey and Devon said the word. And Casey — your last two packages both carried issue2=opt1, so this is your issue2 slot, not mine; I gave up opt3 and then opt1 on issue3 and I score nothing at all on issue2, so I have taken every step available to me. There is nothing left to trade and no round after this one. It's P8 or five zeros. Vote yes.
P8 and P9 both give me 66. P9 has 4 accepts but Casey never signed it across two chances. Casey's own last two proposals both carried issue2=opt1, and Blake authored/signed P8, while Devon and Ember both publicly committed to accepting P8 on the spot. So re-tabling P8's content is the single package that plausibly gets all five. Keep issue0=opt2 to hold Ember; keep issue1=opt2 (unanimous, my big scorer); issue3=opt0 is Blake's stated survivable line.
oracle regret: threshold=+45, acceptance=+29.3, bestresponse=+3.35
[21] Blake — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P12
💬 P12 is my own P8 with a new number on it, so of course my answer is yes — I formally accept P12. Casey, it carries your issue2=opt1, the unanimous issue1=opt2, Ember's issue0=opt2, and the issue3 outcome I paid my headline to reach. Avery, Devon and Ember have all said in words they back this exact package. This is the last vote in the room: yes on P12 and we all bank a deal.
P12 is identical to my own P8 and scores far above my line — better than P9. Final vote: accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+33, acceptance=+33, bestresponse=+0
[22] Casey — final_vote (round 5)
(invalid: The final vote is only on P12; reference that offer id.)
[23] Casey — final_vote (round 5)
(invalid: The final vote is only on P12; reference that offer id.)
[24] Devon — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P12
💬 Yes on P12. It's not my best package — I gave up my strongest issue2 outcome twice to build the bridge, and P9 was the better deal for more of us — but a signed agreement beats five zeros. I formally accept P12: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0. Casey, it carries the issue2 slot you asked for in your own last two proposals and the issue1 everyone has backed since round one. Four signatures are on it. Add yours and we're done.
P12 = 75 for me, above my line. P9 was better (91) but Casey never signed it. Final vote — a deal at 75 beats no deal. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+68, acceptance=+68, bestresponse=+0
[25] Ember — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P12
💬 Yes. I formally accept P12. It carries issue0=opt2, the unanimous issue1=opt2, Casey's own issue2=opt1 from her last two proposals, and the issue3 outcome Blake paid his headline to reach. Four of us are now signed, including the veto. Casey, this is the last vote in the room and it is your issue2 slot — say yes and we all bank a deal instead of five zeros.
P12 = 144 for me, far above my line. Casey is the only holdout; my accept makes 4 and keeps it live for Casey's final yes. No reason to do anything else.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+23, bestresponse=+0
Outcome
no deal (no_deal)
primary 0.0 · USW 0.0 · ESW 0.0 · NSW 0.0 · Gini 0.0 · per-party surplus [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]