scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-f5fb5d6a39
model one_oracle · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L2-103cef6017 · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_oracle", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}
Game setup
- Issues: issue0 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue1 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue2 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue3 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3)
- P0 (τ=45): issue0: opt0=11, opt1=0, opt2=33, opt3=22; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=38, opt1=0, opt2=19, opt3=58
- P1 (τ=88): issue0: opt0=13, opt1=0, opt2=38, opt3=25; issue1: opt0=18, opt1=54, opt2=0, opt3=36; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=28, opt1=85, opt2=57, opt3=0
- P2 (τ=93): issue0: opt0=15, opt1=0, opt2=44, opt3=30; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=19, opt1=58, opt2=0, opt3=39; issue3: opt0=28, opt1=83, opt2=56, opt3=0
- P3 (τ=91): issue0: opt0=15, opt1=0, opt2=45, opt3=30; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=28, opt2=85, opt3=57; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=18, opt1=53, opt2=35, opt3=0
- P4 (τ=86): issue0: opt0=16, opt1=0, opt2=48, opt3=32; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=63, opt2=42, opt3=21; issue3: opt0=41, opt1=0, opt2=21, opt3=62
Turns
[0] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Good morning all. Here's my opening frame, and more importantly, here's my honest map of where I'm rigid and where I'm generous. My value is concentrated in issue0 and issue3 — I need decent outcomes there or a deal is worse for me than walking. On issue1 and issue2 I am genuinely flexible: whoever cares most about those, tell me your preferred options and I will write them into my next package, no charge. That's a real offer, not a bargaining pose. P1 is my ask; treat issue1/issue2 in it as placeholders. Blake, since nothing passes without you, please tell us early which issues actually move your number and by how much, so we spend these four rounds trading instead of guessing.
My values: issue0 opt2=33, opt3=22, opt0=11, opt1=0. issue3 opt3=58, opt0=38, opt2=19, opt1=0. issue1 and issue2 are worth nothing to me — pure trading chips. Max 91, threshold 45. Open at max, loudly offer issue1/issue2 as giveaways to buy support on issue0/issue3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35
[1] Blake — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Straight answer, Avery, as asked. Issue2 is worth literally nothing to me — I will sign whatever anyone else wants there, permanently, no charge; Casey, Devon, Ember, claim it. Issue0 is my smallest live issue and I'm happy to keep your opt2 there, so you get your top issue0 outcome from me for free. The place I cannot move is issue3: the bulk of my sheet sits on issue3=opt1, with opt2 a distant second and opt3 a flat zero for me. A package with issue3=opt3 is below my walk-away no matter what else is in it, so P1 is unfortunately dead on arrival. Issue1 is my second-largest — opt1 there, opt3 a fallback. So: you take issue0, the rest of you take issue2, I take issue3 and preferably issue1. That's a lot of surface for four-way trade. P2 tables it.
Max possible 177 (issue0=opt2 38, issue1=opt1 54, issue2 irrelevant 0, issue3=opt1 85). Threshold 88. issue3 is my dominant issue; issue1 second. issue2 is worthless to me — pure currency. Avery wants issue3=opt3, which is my zero — that's the collision to fight now, early.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35
[2] Casey — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+7.78, bestresponse=+0
[3] Devon — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Useful transparency, thank you both. Mine: issue2 is a flat zero for me — I will never fight for it, so Casey/Ember, take it. My weight sits on issue1, where opt2 is far and away my best, and secondarily on issue0=opt2. Blake, I hear you on issue3: I'm handing you issue3=opt1 outright, your top outcome, unpaid, in this round. In exchange I ask the table to let issue1=opt2 stand. Blake, if issue1 is genuinely your second issue, tell me what opt2 there costs you and I'll look for compensation elsewhere — but note that in P4 you get your #1 issue at your #1 option plus issue0=opt2 which you already said suits you. P4 is that package: Avery gets issue0=opt2, Blake gets issue3=opt1, Casey gets issue2=opt1, I get issue1=opt2.
My max is issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=anything, issue3=opt1 = 183. Blake demands issue3=opt1 (his top). Give him that; I take issue1=opt2. Issue2 is worthless to me, give Casey opt1. P3 already gives me 165 as a strong fallback; P2 gives 126.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+29.3, bestresponse=+3.7
[4] Ember — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Clean cards from me too. Issue1 is a flat zero on my sheet — I will never fight anyone for it, so Blake and Devon should settle it between themselves and I'll sign whichever way they land. My value is concentrated in issue2, where opt1 is far and away my best; Blake and Devon have both said issue2 is nothing to them, so issue2=opt1 should be uncontested. issue0=opt2 also works for me, so that's now unanimous. That leaves issue3 as the only genuinely contested item, and it's the one place I still need some weight: opt1 there is a zero for me, exactly as opt3 is for Blake. So P5 is my proposal: Blake gets his top option on issue1 — the thing he called his second-largest — plus issue0=opt2 he already likes, and in return issue3 lands on opt2, which he himself named as his fallback rather than his zero. Casey put issue3=opt2 in her own package, so that's two of us. Devon, if issue1=opt2 is truly your make-or-break, say so and I'll flip issue1 back to opt2 in my next package at no charge — but then issue3=opt2 has to hold, because I can't be the only party carrying two zeros.
P4=111, P3=132, P1=110 for me. Issue1 is worthless to me — pure trading currency. Issue2=opt1 is my biggest single item; issue0=opt2 already suits everyone. Only remaining upside is issue3=opt2 over opt1 (+21). Anchor with a package that pays Blake his top issue1 in exchange for issue3=opt2, keeping P4 as my safe fallback.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+4.46, bestresponse=+2.3
[5] Blake — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Here's the arithmetic on my sheet, plainly. Issue3 and issue1 are the only two places I score meaningfully, and issue3 dwarfs issue1. I can survive losing ONE of them. I cannot survive losing both: any package that runs issue1=opt2 AND issue3=opt2 together lands under my walk-away line, so P3 is dead — please don't spend rounds building on it, I will not sign it in round 4 either. P6 is what I'd like: Avery gets issue0=opt2 (unanimous already), Ember gets issue2=opt1 (I've given that away permanently and for free), and I take issue1=opt1 plus issue3=opt1. Note what that means for the two of you actually in dispute with me: Devon, P4 is already live and I can sign it — you get issue1=opt2, your stated #1 outcome on your #1 issue, and I absorb the loss there. Ember, P5 is already live and I can sign it — you get issue3=opt2, and I absorb the loss there. So there are three packages I can live with, and each of you can get your headline item in one of them; what I can't do is pay both of you at once. Sort out between yourselves which of P4, P5, or P6 you'd rather I sign, and I'll sign it. Avery, Casey — issue0=opt2 holds in all three, so you're whole on the item Avery called rigid.
P2=177, P5=149, P4=123, P3=95 (barely over my line). Danger: Casey+Devon both want issue1=opt2 and Casey+Ember want issue3=opt2, which converges on P3 — my worst live outcome. Use veto credibility to declare P3 below my walk-away now, before it gains momentum. Table P6 (=my ideal with Ember's issue2=opt1) and let the fight settle between P4 and P5, both of which are good for me.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+45.1, bestresponse=+0.35
[6] Casey — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+0
[7] Devon — turn (round 2)
none
💬 Ember, I want to be straight with you rather than run out the clock. Blake has told us plainly he can pay one of us, not both. On P4 you get issue2=opt1 — your stated #1 outcome on your #1 issue — uncontested and permanent, and issue0=opt2 which you also said works. That's your headline item delivered in full. On P5 I'd be the one carrying the loss on my single concentrated issue, and unlike you I have no second issue to fall back on: issue2 is a flat zero for me, so issue1 is the whole of my case. P4 is already accepted by me and Blake has said he can sign it; Casey's P3 and my P4 differ only on issue3, so Casey is one small step away. Avery, Casey — P4 keeps issue0=opt2, which you both called rigid, and gives Blake his top issue3 outcome, so it clears the veto. If Ember genuinely cannot sign P4, say so clearly this round and I will table a bridge next round that moves issue3 to opt2 and compensates the loss elsewhere on issue1 — but I'd rather not spend two rounds discovering that, so let's converge on P4 now.
P4 = 183 for me, best live. P6/P2 = 126, P5 = 108, all above my 91 bar. P3 (165) is dead per Blake. Endgame is P4 vs P5: the only real fight is issue3 opt1 (Blake+me) vs opt2 (Ember+Casey). Keep pushing P4; do not reject P5 since it's still above my line. Hold the issue1=opt3 bridge (137 for me) in reserve for round 3 if Ember truly won't move.
[8] Ember — turn (round 2)
none
💬 Let's be precise about the geometry, because it's simpler than it looks. Blake has told us he can sign P4, P5 or P6. Casey has already signed a package with issue3=opt2. Avery's own opener put issue3 at the far end from opt1, so opt2 is plainly closer to Avery's map than opt1 is. That means P5 already has Blake's stated tolerance, Casey's revealed preference on issue3, and Avery's direction — plus my signature, which is on it. One party stands between us and a close.
Devon, look at what P5 actually costs you versus what P4 costs me. In P4 I carry a flat zero on issue1 AND a flat zero on issue3 — two of the four issues score nothing for me, and I'd be the only party at this table absorbing both blanks while everyone else banks their headline item. That is not a package I can justify signing. In P5 you carry one blank on issue1, and you carry it because Blake — not I — refused to pay us both; I never contested issue1 and I said in round one I'd sign whichever way you and Blake landed it. Blake landed it. I have given away issue1 entirely and free, twice. Issue3=opt2 is the single item I have asked for all negotiation, and it is Blake's own named fallback, not his zero.
So here is my commitment, and it is not a pose: I will sign P5 the moment it is called, and I will not be the party who blocks a close over issue1 — that item is yours and Blake's to settle. Avery, Casey: P5 keeps issue0=opt2, which every single package here has held, and it moves issue3 toward your side, not Blake's. Accept P5 and this is finished this round. Devon, if you sign it we all bank a deal; if you hold out for P4 we spend two more rounds and risk everyone taking their no-deal outcome over one option on one issue.
P3 and P5 both = 132 for me; P4/P6 = 111. Blake vetoes P3 (issue1=opt2 + issue3=opt2 together). So P5 is my best feasible: Blake has said he can sign it. Devon is the only holdout; he has nothing else to trade for. Push P5 hard now, keep P4 as my quiet fallback for round 4 — 111 still well above my bar, and no-deal is catastrophic. Don't formally reject P4; don't admit it clears my bar.
[9] Avery — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Critical information, and it's not a bluff — I'll stake the whole negotiation on it. issue3=opt1 is a flat zero on my sheet. Combined with issue1 and issue2 both being zeros for me, any package with issue3=opt1 scores below my walk-away no matter what else is in it. So P2, P4 and P6 are not slow for me, they are dead: I will still be refusing them in round 4. Blake, Devon — please stop building there. The arithmetic that follows is simple. Blake says issue1=opt2 plus issue3=opt2 together sinks him, so P3 is out. I say issue3=opt1 sinks me, so P4 and P6 are out. Subtract both and exactly one live package survives: P5. Devon, I'm sorry — issue1=opt1 is the price, and note you still bank issue0=opt2, which you named as your secondary. I have handed away issue1 and issue2 entirely, free, from my first word onward; issue3 is the only place I have asked for anything at all. One last piece of value-hunting before I sign. P7 is P5 with issue3 moved to opt0 instead of opt2 — everything else identical, Ember keeps issue2=opt1, Blake keeps issue1=opt1, Avery/Devon keep issue0=opt2. opt0 is materially better than opt2 for me. Blake, you've never told us where opt0 sits on your issue3 map — if it's at or near opt2 for you, P7 makes me a lot better off at little cost and I'll happily pay for it by signing whatever you like on issue1 forever. If opt0 is worse for you than opt2, say so plainly this round and I will formally accept P5 on my very next turn and we close. Either way, issue3=opt1 is not happening.
issue3=opt1 gives me literally nothing; those packages (P2/P4/P6) land below my walk-away, so I must kill them credibly. P5/P3 clear my bar with modest surplus (issue3=opt2). issue3=opt0 would be much better for me than opt2 — worth one probe since Devon is still blocking P5 anyway, so nothing closes this round regardless. Commit publicly to signing P5 next turn if opt0 doesn't suit Blake, so the probe costs no goodwill.
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+18.4, bestresponse=+0.35
[10] Casey — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+0
[11] Devon — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I'll do what I said I'd do rather than run the clock. Avery's constraint and Blake's constraint together leave exactly one package standing, and it isn't the one I wanted: issue1=opt1 is a real loss on the single issue that carries my sheet, and I'm taking it so this table doesn't end in no-deal over one option. I formally ACCEPT P5. That's Ember and me on it, Avery has pledged to sign it on their next turn, and Blake has stated on the record he can sign it. Casey, you are the last piece: P5 keeps issue0=opt2, which you've held in every package you've tabled, keeps issue2=opt1 exactly as in your P3, and keeps issue3=opt2 exactly as in your P3 — it differs from the package you already accepted twice on one option of one issue, and that one option is the thing Blake says he cannot pay. P3 will not clear the veto in round 4. Please put your accept on P5 and let's bank this.
P4 (183) is dead: Avery says issue3=opt1 is below their walkaway and they'd refuse in round 4. P3 (165) is dead: Blake says issue1=opt2 + issue3=opt2 sinks him. P5 gives me 108, comfortably above my line. Any improvement for me (issue1=opt2 or opt3) comes straight out of Blake, who has the veto and has drawn a hard line. With only one round left after this, coordination risk of chasing 30 more points is not worth risking a zero. Lock in P5 and push Casey/Blake/Avery to close.
oracle regret: threshold=+75, acceptance=+75, bestresponse=+57
[12] Ember — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P7
💬 Two things, and they are consistent with everything I've said. First: my acceptance of P5 stands and does not move. I will not withdraw it, and if Blake tells us issue3=opt0 is worse for him than opt2, P5 is where I sign and we close. Second: Avery has asked a direct question and it deserves a direct test, so I am formally ACCEPTING P7 as well. P7 is P5 with one option changed on the one issue Avery says is the whole of his sheet — issue2=opt1 is untouched, issue1=opt1 is untouched, issue0=opt2 is untouched. If opt0 sits at or near opt2 on Blake's issue3 map, then P7 makes Avery materially better off at near-zero cost to Blake and it is strictly the better deal for this table. Blake, that is the only question left in this negotiation: is issue3=opt0 tolerable for you, yes or no? Say yes and accept P7. Say no and accept P5. Either answer closes us in round 4, because P5 already has Devon and me, Avery has pledged it, and you have said on the record you can sign it. Casey — P3 requires Blake to pay both Devon and me on issue1 and issue3 at once, and he has said twice he cannot; P3 will not clear the veto no matter how many times it is accepted. P5 gives you issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1 and issue3=opt2 — three of the four items exactly as you wrote them yourself. Move to P5 or P7 this round and nobody here goes home with nothing.
P7 = 152 for me vs P5 = 132. Accepts are tracked per-offer, so adding my accept to P7 should not remove my standing accept on P5. Blake is the unknown on issue3=opt0. Push P7 as the upside, keep P5 as the guaranteed landing zone; both clear my bar comfortably. Never touch P2/P4/P6 (issue3=opt1 is a blank for me and Avery says it's below his line anyway).
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.3
[13] Avery — turn (round 3)
REJECT P6
💬 Formal move first: I REJECT P6. Not as tactics — issue3=opt1 plus my two blank issues puts P6, P4 and P2 under my walk-away line, so they cannot close in round 4 regardless of how many accepts they gather. Blake, you have a veto; I have arithmetic. Neither of us can be talked out of it, so let's spend this round on the one question that's actually still open. That question is not P5 versus P6. It is P7 versus P5. They are identical on three of four issues — issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1 for you, issue2=opt1 for Ember — and differ only in whether issue3 lands on opt0 or opt2. Ember has already accepted both. Devon has already accepted P5 and has nothing to lose from P7, since P7 protects the exact issue0 outcome he named as his secondary. Casey's own P3 gave issue3=opt2, and P7 costs Casey nothing she has argued for. So P7 is reachable this round if you say one word. Blake: is issue3=opt0 tolerable for you, yes or no? You have volunteered your map on issue1, on issue2, on issue0 and on three of four options on issue3 — opt0 is the single cell you have never priced, and it is now the only cell that matters. If your answer is yes, accept P7 and we are done, and I will additionally pay for it: name any option you like on issue1 and I will write it in permanently, and I will not contest issue0 against you either. If your answer is no — if opt0 genuinely sits below opt2 for you — then say so plainly this round and I give you my word I will formally ACCEPT P5 on my first turn of round 4, before you or Casey or Devon have to move. That pledge is unconditional and I have kept every commitment I have made at this table. Silence is the only answer that risks a no-deal for all five of us, because silence leaves me signing P5 in round 4 having left value on the table that cost you nothing to give.
P7=71 for me, P5=52, P3=52. P6/P4/P2=33 (below 45 threshold, genuinely unacceptable). P7 has me+Ember; need Blake, Casey, Devon. Do NOT accept P5 yet — that would let Blake pocket the cheaper option. I move first in round 4, so I can still accept P5 then and Blake/Casey/Devon all have turns after me. So this round: kill P6 formally, force Blake's yes/no on issue3=opt0, and keep the P5 pledge credible as insurance.
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+18.4, bestresponse=+0.35
[14] Blake — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Direct answer to the direct question, no hedging: NO. issue3=opt0 sits materially below opt2 on my sheet — it is nearly as weak for me as opt3, not a near-neighbour of opt2. P7 is the worst package I could still sign and it eats most of the margin I have left; I will not build on it. Avery, you asked for a plain answer this round so you could keep your pledge, and you have it. So I am doing my part now rather than making anyone wait: I formally ACCEPT P5. That is Devon, Ember and Blake — the veto — on the same package. Avery has given his unconditional word to add his accept on his first turn of round 4. Casey, that leaves exactly one signature outstanding, yours, and I want to be very clear with you about why P3 cannot be it: P3 asks me to give up my top outcome on issue3 AND my top outcome on issue1 in the same package. That is the one combination I told this table in round two I cannot pay, and nothing has changed. I will still be refusing it on my last turn. Look at what P5 hands you instead: issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1 and issue3=opt2 — three of the four items written exactly as you wrote them yourself in P3. The single difference is issue1, and issue1 is the item Devon and I have been fighting over, not you; you have never once argued for it. You are being asked to give up nothing you have claimed, and in exchange five parties bank a deal instead of five parties going home with nothing. Put your accept on P5.
P5 = 149 for me, well above my line. P7 = 120, still above but 29 worse; issue3=opt0 is genuinely much weaker for me than opt2. P5 already has Devon and Ember; Avery has pledged P5 on his round-4 turn if I say opt0 is worse. So: answer plainly, lock P5 with my accept, and put all pressure on Casey. Fallback if Casey stonewalls: P3 is thin but survivable — do not reveal that.
oracle regret: threshold=+28, acceptance=+28, bestresponse=+0
[15] Devon — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Last round, so I'll spend my turn removing doubt rather than adding options. I re-affirm my ACCEPT of P5 and I will not move off it. P5 now has Blake — the veto — plus Ember plus me. Avery has given his unconditional word to add his signature on his turn, and he has kept every commitment he made here. That leaves Casey. Casey: I am the party who lost this negotiation. issue1 is the whole of my sheet and P5 hands it to Blake, not me; I signed anyway because a deal beats five empty chairs. You are being asked for far less than that. P5 is your own P3 with three of its four items untouched — issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt2, exactly as you wrote them. The only change is issue1, the one item you have never once argued for in four rounds, and it is the exact item Blake has said three separate times he cannot pay while also giving up issue3. P3 cannot clear the veto on anyone's last turn. There is no fifth round to discover that in. Put your accept on P5 and we all bank a deal.
P5 gives me 108 vs threshold 91 — safely above. P3/P4 are dead (Avery's zero on issue3=opt1, Blake's refusal). Tempting to table issue1=opt3 to grab more, but this is the last round: Avery, Blake, Casey each have exactly one turn left. If they spend those turns on a new package Blake then rejects, P5 dies for lack of Avery's signature and I get nothing. Not worth risking 108 for a speculative gain. Reaffirm P5 and put all pressure on Casey.
oracle regret: threshold=+75, acceptance=+75, bestresponse=+57
[16] Ember — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Final round, so no new packages from me — only closure. I formally re-affirm my ACCEPT of P5 and I withdraw nothing. P7 was worth more to me than P5 and I let it go the moment Blake priced it honestly, because a deal that closes beats a better deal that dies. That is the spirit everyone needs for the next two turns. Where we stand: P5 carries Blake — the veto — plus Devon plus me. Avery has given his unconditional word to sign on his turn, and he has kept every commitment he made here. Casey: P5 is your own P3 with three of four items written exactly as you wrote them — issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt2. The single difference is issue1, the one item you have never argued for in four rounds, and it is precisely the item Blake has said three times he cannot surrender alongside issue3. P3 cannot clear the veto on anyone's last turn; there is no round five in which to discover that. Every party at this table has given up their headline item somewhere: Devon lost issue1 outright, Avery lost his preferred issue3, Blake absorbed the loss on issue3, and I let go of the better package sitting right in front of me. You are being asked to give up nothing you have claimed. Put your accept on P5 and all five of us bank a deal.
P5 gives me 132, well above my bar. P7 would give 152 but Blake has flatly refused it and there is no time left to fight for it. P3 equals P5 for me but cannot clear Blake's veto. The only closing path is P5: Blake (veto), Devon and I are on it, Avery pledged it. Casey is the last signature. Re-affirm and push.
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0
[17] Avery — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I gave my word that if Blake priced issue3=opt0 plainly I would sign P5 on my first turn of round 4, without conditions and without waiting for anyone else to move first. He answered plainly. So I keep my word: I formally ACCEPT P5. For the record — P5 is not my best package. P7 was worth materially more to me, and P1 more still, and I am letting both go because a deal that closes beats a better deal that dies. That is now four of five signatures on the same package: Blake the veto, Devon, Ember, and me. Casey, everything rests with you and it is a small ask. P5 is your own P3 with three of its four items written exactly as you wrote them yourself — issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt2. The only change is issue1, the single item you have never argued for once in four rounds. P3 cannot close: it requires Blake to surrender his top outcome on issue1 and on issue3 in the same breath, and he has told this table four separate times that is the one combination that puts him under his walk-away. There is no round five in which to test that. Every party here has given up their headline item — Devon lost issue1 outright, I lost my preferred issue3 twice over, Blake absorbed the loss on issue3, Ember let go of the better package sitting in front of her. You are being asked to give up nothing you have claimed. Put your accept on P5 and all five of us go home with a deal instead of five empty chairs.
P5 = 52, above my line of 45. I pledged unconditionally to sign it once Blake priced opt0 honestly, and he did. P7 (71) is dead — Blake has refused it on the record and there is no time to move him. Keeping my word and closing is worth more than a package that dies. Casey is the last signature; my whole message should be aimed at her.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+0
[18] Blake — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 My ACCEPT of P5 stands and it is the last formal move I have in this negotiation. That matters, Casey, so please hear it precisely: this is my final turn. Even if I wanted to sign P3 on some later turn, there is no later turn — the rotation ends with Ember and I do not speak again. So the choice in front of you is not P3 versus P5. It is P5 versus nothing, for all five of us. And I'll say once more why P3 was never reachable: it takes my top outcome on issue1 and my top outcome on issue3 away in the same package, and that specific pair is the one combination that puts me under my walk-away. I said that in round two, in round three, and I am saying it with my final breath here. It was never a bluff and it was never going to soften. What P5 gives you is your own package back on three of four lines — issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt2, written exactly as you wrote them yourself. The single line that differs is issue1, which you have not argued for once in four rounds. Everyone at this table paid something real: Devon surrendered the only issue that carries his sheet, Avery gave up his preferred issue3 twice, Ember walked away from a package worth more to her, and I ate the loss on my largest issue rather than see this collapse. You are being asked to concede nothing you ever claimed. Put your accept on P5 and all five of us bank a deal.
P5 gives me 149, well above my line, and already has 4 accepts including mine. Only Casey is missing. P3 (95) is barely above my line but I have no turn left after this, so switching would kill P5 and gain nothing. Correct play: re-affirm P5 and make clear to Casey that this is structurally the last chance — I cannot move again.
oracle regret: threshold=+28, acceptance=+28, bestresponse=+0
[19] Casey — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+0
[20] Ember — final_proposal (round 5)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Final move, and I'm using it to give this table the one package that can actually close. This is P5, unchanged, line for line: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt2. I could have used this turn to re-table P7, which is worth materially more to me — I'm not, because Blake priced it honestly and it would die. That is the standard everyone should apply right now. Casey: this is your own P3 with three of its four lines written exactly as you wrote them — issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt2. The only line that differs is issue1, the single item you never argued for once in four rounds, and it is precisely the item Blake told us four separate times he cannot surrender in the same package as issue3. P3 was never reachable; it needed a veto holder to pay two headline items at once. There is no round after this one. Every other party has already paid: Devon lost the only issue that carries his sheet, Avery gave up his preferred issue3 twice, Blake ate the loss on his largest issue, and I let go of the better package sitting in front of me. You are being asked to concede nothing you ever claimed and to bank three of your four lines intact. Vote yes and all five of us go home with a deal instead of five empty chairs.
P5 scores 132 for me, well above threshold. Four of five already accepted it; only Casey outstanding. P7 (152) is dead — Blake priced issue3=opt0 below opt2 and will vote it down. P3 is dead on Blake's veto. Re-tabling P5 verbatim maximizes the chance of an actual close; any tweak in my favor risks losing Blake, Avery or Devon. Final move: re-table P5.
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+24.5, bestresponse=+2.3
[21] Avery — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P8
💬 P8 is P5 word for word, and I signed P5 the moment I said I would. I ACCEPT P8. Casey, this is the last vote there is; three of your four lines are exactly as you wrote them. Join us and all five of us bank a deal.
P8 is P5 line-for-line: 52 for me vs 45 threshold. Above my walk-away. Final vote — accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+0.35
[22] Blake — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P8
💬 P8 is P5 line for line, and I accept it without reservation. Casey, this is the final vote: three of your four lines are exactly as you wrote them yourself, and the only difference is the one item you never claimed. There is nothing after this. I ACCEPT P8 — join us and all five of us bank a deal.
P8 = P5 identical, 149 for me, far above my line. Accept and urge Casey.
oracle regret: threshold=+28, acceptance=+28, bestresponse=+54.4
[23] Casey — final_vote (round 5)
(invalid: The final vote is only on P8; reference that offer id.)
[24] Casey — final_vote (round 5)
(invalid: The final vote is only on P8; reference that offer id.)
[25] Devon — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P8
💬 P8 is P5 word for word and I signed P5 without hesitation. I ACCEPT P8. Casey, this is the last vote in the room — three of your four lines exactly as you wrote them. Say yes and all five of us go home with a deal.
P8 = P5 line for line: 45+28+0+35 = 108, above my threshold of 91. Final vote; accepting is the only way to bank value.
oracle regret: threshold=+75, acceptance=+75, bestresponse=+57
Outcome
no deal (no_deal)
primary 0.0 · USW 0.0 · ESW 0.0 · NSW 0.0 · Gini 0.0 · per-party surplus [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]