scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-fa02d59b99

model one_oracle · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L1-aabb4d986b · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_oracle", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Good morning all. Let me open with a package and be transparent about where my flexibility lies. Two of these four issues matter a great deal to me; the other two I genuinely can trade away. Concretely: issue2 and issue3 are open — I will take whatever combination the four of you want on those, with no argument at all. In exchange I ask for consideration on issue0 and issue1. P1 reflects that: my preferred outcomes on issue0 and issue1, and placeholders on issue2/issue3 that anyone can rewrite freely. Tell me your top picks on issue2 and issue3 and I'll fold them in immediately.
My value is entirely in issue0 and issue1. Best: issue0=opt2 (33), issue1=opt3 (77) = 110. Threshold 49, so I need at least issue1=opt2 plus something, or issue1=opt3 alone. Issues 2 and 3 are free giveaways — use them as currency. Open ambitious but advertise full flexibility on issue2/issue3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.05

[1] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Blake, your framework works for me and I'll say plainly: issue3 is a free gift from my side — I have no stake in it whatsoever, so whoever cares about issue3 should claim it and I'll back them. issue2=opt0 is where my value is concentrated, so thank you for leaving that open; I'd like it locked. My one real ask is issue1, where opt0 is worth a great deal to me and opt3 is worth nothing. P2 keeps your issue0=opt2 untouched — you get your top pick there, plus my vote and my full flexibility on issue3. That's a clean one-for-one trade rather than me asking for both.
P1 = 141 for me, well above my bar of 90. But issue1=opt0 would add a lot. issue3 is worth literally nothing to me — pure currency to hand out. Keep Blake's issue0=opt2 (also my best there) and push on issue1, while signaling P1 is acceptable as a fallback so I don't blow up a good deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.55

[2] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+28, bestresponse=+0

[3] Ember — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P3
💬 P3 works for me and I formally accept it. Let me be equally transparent: issue2 is worth literally nothing to me, so Casey should have issue2=opt0 locked permanently — I will never contest it. My value sits in issue1 and issue3, which is why P3 is the natural landing zone: Blake keeps issue0=opt2, Casey keeps issue2=opt0, Devon gets issue3=opt1, and issue1=opt3 is the one thing I genuinely cannot trade away. Casey, I hear that issue1=opt0 matters to you, but that's the one square where I'd rather have no deal — so let's pay you elsewhere: I'm happy to move issue0 to whatever option you and Blake agree on if that helps, and I'll back your issue2 claim against anyone. P3 already has three of five; two more accepts and we're done in round one.
P3 = 228 for me, far above threshold. issue1=opt3 and issue3=opt1 are my two big drivers. Must lock P3 and defend issue1=opt3 against Casey's opt0 ask. If Casey needs compensation, offer flexibility on issue0 (opt1 instead of opt2 costs me little) rather than issue1.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[4] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Thanks all — we're close, but I have to be straight: issue1 is not a throwaway square for me either. issue1=opt3 is my worst outcome on the whole sheet, and P3 as written sits right on the edge of what I can sign. So let me contribute what I genuinely don't need: issue2 is worth nothing to me, so Casey's issue2=opt0 is locked from my side permanently, and issue0=opt2 stays untouched for Blake in every package I table. P4 is P3 with the one change that matters: issue1=opt0, which Casey has said is where their value is concentrated, while Devon keeps issue3=opt1. That's two of us paid on the same square. Ember — if opt3 truly is existential for you, say so again and I'll look at issue1=opt1 as a genuine midpoint plus giving you issue3, but I can't simply hand over issue1 for nothing.
P3 gives me 75 (+7), acceptable but thin. P2 gives 120. issue1 is my big-ticket item: opt0 >> opt1 > opt2 > opt3. issue2 is worthless to me — free gift to Casey. issue3: opt2 > opt1 > opt0 > opt3. Push for issue1=opt0 with Casey; fallback middle ground issue1=opt1; last resort accept P3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+14.2, bestresponse=+0.35

[5] Casey — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P4
💬 I formally accept P4. Note what P4 does: Blake keeps issue0=opt2 untouched, Devon keeps issue3=opt1, my issue2=opt0 stands as everyone has already conceded, and the single contested square is issue1. On issue1 there are now two of us — Avery and me — for whom opt3 is the bottom of the sheet, and issue3 has already been handed to Devon and issue0 to Blake, so there is genuinely nothing left to pay us with elsewhere. Ember, you've been given issue3 and you've asked us to absorb the loss on issue1 as well; that's both of the squares you named as your value centre. If opt0 is truly impossible for you, then Avery's suggestion of issue1=opt1 is the only bridge I can see — a real midpoint where nobody takes their worst outcome. But I will not sign issue1=opt3 while every other issue has already been allocated to someone else. P4 needs three more accepts; opt1 is my fallback if you tell me opt0 is dead.
P4 = 195 for me, P2 = 195, P3/P1 = 141. All clear my bar, but P4/P2 are far better. Accept P4 (Avery already on it) to build momentum on the issue1=opt0 line. Float opt1 as a bridge without conceding opt3 is acceptable — I don't want to reveal that opt3 still clears my floor.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.55

[6] Devon — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[7] Ember — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 I'll do what I said I'd do: move. Avery, Casey — you both told me opt0 is your peak and opt3 your floor on issue1. Blake opened on opt3 and I'm with Blake there, so opt0 is not reachable no matter how many times it's tabled; P2 and P4 have no path through the veto. P5 is me stepping off my own peak: issue1=opt2, a genuine interior square that is neither my top nor your bottom, with everything else exactly as you all built it — issue0=opt2 for Blake, issue2=opt0 locked for Casey, issue3=opt1 for Devon. That is real value surrendered from my side, not a repackaging. If opt2 is still too far for you, tell me plainly and I will look at opt1 as my last step, but I want credit for moving first and I won't move twice for nothing. Blake, Devon — P5 costs you nothing outside issue1 and it's the only version Avery and Casey can plausibly sign.
P3=228 for me, P4=130 (still above my bar but poor), issue1=opt1 -> 163, issue1=opt2 -> 195. Best play: table opt2 as a visible concession off opt3, keep P3 alive, hold opt1 in reserve as final fallback. Blake (veto) wants issue1=opt3, so Avery/Casey cannot simply take opt0 anyway; a midpoint is the realistic landing zone.
oracle regret: threshold=+33, acceptance=+61.7, bestresponse=+6.15

[8] Avery — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Ember, I do credit the move — that was real and I'm answering it in kind rather than restating my peak. I'm dropping issue1=opt0 entirely. P6 is the exact bridge both Casey and I named out loud, and the one you yourself said was your last step: issue1=opt1. Everything else is frozen at the consensus you all built — issue0=opt2 for Blake, issue2=opt0 locked for Casey, issue3=opt1 for Devon. Nobody is asked to give up anything outside the one contested square, and on that square you move one notch and Casey and I move two from where we started. That is not symmetric in your disfavour. Blake — you asked for consideration on issue0 and issue1 and you have issue0=opt2 untouched in every live package including this one; opt1 is one step off your opening on the other. P6 is the version with five signatures available. I'm ready to close on it this round.
P5 = 94 for me, well above threshold — that's my safety net. P6 with issue1=opt1 = 114. Casey named opt1 as fallback, Ember named opt1 as their last step. Blake is the veto and still wants opt3 on issue1; Blake already has issue0=opt2 in every package. Push for opt1 now, keep P5 alive as fallback and don't formally reject anything.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+27.2, bestresponse=+0.35

[9] Blake — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P3
💬 Let me be precise, because vagueness is costing us rounds. I told you at the open that issue2 and issue3 are free gifts from me, and I have honoured that in every package: Casey has issue2=opt0 with my permanent backing, Devon has issue3=opt1 with my permanent backing. I have asked for exactly one thing in return, and it is issue1. So here is the hard information you need from the veto seat: issue1=opt0 and issue1=opt1 are both below my no-deal line. P2 and P4 are dead, and P6 is dead too — Avery, I appreciate the construction, but a package I cannot sign is not a package with five signatures available, it is a package with zero. I am not posturing; I would take no deal over either of them, and no amount of re-tabling changes that arithmetic. P3 is where the value is, it already has three of five, and it costs Avery and Casey nothing on the two squares they each told us they don't care about. I formally accept P3. Avery, Casey — you have both moved twice on issue1 while receiving your locks on issue2 and issue3 intact; what I am telling you is that the remaining distance has to close on the upper half of that issue, not the lower. Come to P3 and we finish this round. If you tell me plainly that P3 is unsignable for you, then in the next round I will look at whether there is one interior square I can survive — but I will not go looking for it while opt0 and opt1 are still being tabled at me.
P3 = 110 for me, P5 = 84, P6 = 59 (barely above my line), P2/P4 = 33 which is below no-deal. So opt0 and opt1 on issue1 are genuinely near/below my walk-away. Hold at opt3 this round with Devon and Ember (3 of 5), keep opt2 in reserve as my concession for round 3. Do not reveal yet that opt2 clears my bar.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[10] Devon — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[11] Ember — turn (round 3)

none
💬 Arithmetic first, rhetoric second. Blake holds the veto and has stated plainly that issue1=opt0 and issue1=opt1 are below his no-deal line. That means P2, P4 and P6 have exactly zero paths to five signatures no matter how they are re-tabled, and we have one round after this one. So the whole negotiation is now a choice between P3 and P5, and both of those are already on the table with my signature on them. P3 stands with three accepts: Blake, Devon, me. P5 is the interior square Blake said he would look for — it is the only compromise that exists between his floor and mine, and I put it there myself before anyone asked me to. Avery, Casey: you have both been paid the two locks you asked for and nobody has contested them once — issue2=opt0 is yours permanently, issue3=opt1 is Devon's, and I have never tabled a package that touched either. What I will not do is sign the lower half of issue1; I would take no deal over it, and that is not a bargaining posture, it is the same line Blake drew from the veto seat. Blake — put your accept on P5 as a second live path so Avery and Casey have a genuine choice rather than an ultimatum; it costs you nothing outside the one square and it is one notch off your opening, not two. Avery, Casey — accept P3 if you can, P5 if you cannot. Either closes this round. Anything else closes nothing and we all take zero.
P3 = 228 for me (my optimum: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3, issue3=opt1). P5 = 195, P6 = 163, P4 = 130, all above my 105 line but P3/P5 are far better. Blake (veto) has publicly killed opt0 and opt1 on issue1, so P2/P4/P6 cannot close. The only closeable squares on issue1 are opt3 (P3) or opt2 (P5). I already support both. Keep P4/P6 technically alive as insurance rather than formally rejecting them, and spend this turn aligning Blake behind P5 so there are two live paths that both work for me. Don't reveal that I'd survive P6.

[12] Avery — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm doing the arithmetic Ember asked for and I'm acting on it, not talking about it. Blake has ruled out the lower half of issue1 from the veto seat; I take him at his word and I am withdrawing my push for opt0 and opt1 entirely. That leaves exactly one square between us and a signed deal, and Ember already stepped onto it unprompted. I formally accept P5. Note what P5 preserves for every one of you: issue0=opt2 for Blake, untouched since his opening; issue2=opt0 for Casey, never once contested; issue3=opt1 for Devon, never once contested. Nobody is asked to give up a single thing outside issue1, and on issue1 Ember came down from her peak and I have come up from mine. Blake — you said you would look for one interior square you could survive if we stopped tabling opt0 and opt1 at you. We have stopped. P5 is that square, it is one notch off your opening rather than two, and it already carries Ember's signature and mine. Casey, Devon — P5 costs you nothing you have been promised. Put your accepts on P5 and this closes now; hold out for P3 and we spend the last round discovering that two of us could not sign it. I am at P5 and I will be at P5 next round.
P5 = 94 for me, well clear of my bar. P3 = 75, barely above. P6/P4 are dead by Blake's veto statement. Best realistic outcome is P5; accepting it puts two names on it (me + Ember) and makes it the live focal point against P3. One round left after this, so I should convert rather than posture.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+0.35

[13] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P5
💬 I said I would look for an interior square I could survive if opt0 and opt1 stopped being tabled at me. Avery and Casey stopped. So I am keeping my word: I formally accept P5. To be exact about what that means from the veto seat — P5 is now signable by me, and P2, P4 and P6 remain unsignable, permanently, no matter how they are re-tabled. That leaves precisely two live paths, P3 and P5, and I have now put my name on both. Ember and Avery have signed P5, I have signed P5, so it needs exactly two more names: Casey and Devon. Devon — P5 is identical to P3 in every square you have ever spoken about; issue3=opt1 is yours in it, untouched, and I have backed that in every single package since my opening. Casey — issue2=opt0 is yours in P5, never contested by anyone, and P5 is the highest point on issue1 that Ember and Avery will sign and the lowest that I can survive; there is no square left between us. This is the compromise, and it is the last one available. Put your accepts on P5 and we are done this round rather than discovering in the final round that we all took zero.
P5 = 84 for me, comfortably above my line. P3 = 110 but only 3 accepts and both Avery and Casey are dug in; two rounds left and no-deal is 0. Locking P5 now with Avery+Ember already on it means only Casey and Devon are needed, and both of their turns come after mine this round. Take the certain 84.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+26, bestresponse=+3.05

[14] Casey — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P5
💬 I'll close it. I formally accept P5. For the record, I came into this asking for the upper half of issue1 and I am signing the interior square instead — that is two moves from me, and I make them because Blake drew a hard line from the veto seat and I take veto lines seriously rather than testing them with the clock running. What I got in exchange was issue2=opt0, and I want to thank Avery, Ember and Blake for never once contesting it; that good faith is exactly why I'm not squeezing for one more notch now. Devon — you are the last name. P5 is identical to P3 on every square you have ever spoken to: issue3=opt1 is yours in it, untouched, and issue0=opt2 is untouched for Blake. The only difference between P3 and P5 is a single step on issue1, and P3 cannot reach five signatures because Avery and I cannot sign the bottom of that issue. P5 has four of five right now. Put your accept on P5 and we are finished this round with everyone above their line; hold for P3 and we spend the final round proving it was never signable and all five of us take nothing.
P5 = 159 for me, comfortably above my line. P6 would be 177 but Blake has twice stated from the veto seat that opt1 is unsignable, and chasing 18 more points risks a zero. P5 needs only me and Devon; accept now and push Devon to close.
oracle regret: threshold=+36, acceptance=+36, bestresponse=+2.55

[15] Ember — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P5
💬 Final round, so I will keep this short and factual. P5 has four of five signatures: Avery, Blake, Casey and me. It needs one name — Devon's. I am not tabling anything new, because a fresh package starts at zero accepts and there is no round after this one to rebuild it; anyone who tables instead of accepting today is choosing zero for all five of us. I reaffirm my accept of P5. Devon, look at the two packages side by side: P3 and P5 are identical on issue0, identical on issue2, and identical on issue3 — issue3=opt1 is yours in both, and I have backed it in every single package I have ever tabled or signed, including this one. The only difference is one notch on issue1, an issue you have never once spoken to. P3 cannot close: Avery and Casey have each said twice, on the record, that the bottom of issue1 is below their no-deal line, and I believe them the same way I believed Blake's veto line. I gave up my own peak on issue1 to build P5 precisely so a fifth signature would exist. You are holding the pen. Accept P5 and every one of us walks out above our line; hold for P3 and we spend the last minutes of this negotiation proving it was never signable, and you take nothing for the issue3 win you have already been handed four times over.
P5 gives me 195, well above my line. It has 4 of 5 accepts; only Devon remains. P3 is better for me (228) but Avery and Casey have both stated the bottom of issue1 is unsignable, and there is no round after this one. Tabling anything new would reset the accept count to zero and guarantee we all take nothing. Reaffirm P5 and put the whole weight of the room on Devon.
oracle regret: threshold=+33, acceptance=+33, bestresponse=+6.15

[16] Avery — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P5
💬 Last round, so nothing new from me — a fresh package today would start at zero signatures and there is no round left to build it. I reaffirm my accept of P5. Devon, the ledger is simple: P5 has Avery, Blake, Casey and Ember on it. You are the fifth pen. P5 and P3 are identical on issue0, identical on issue2, and identical on issue3 — issue3=opt1 is yours in both, backed by every one of us in every package since round one, never contested once. The only difference is one notch on issue1, the single issue you have never spoken to. P3 cannot close: Casey and I have each said on the record, twice, that the bottom of issue1 is below our no-deal line, and Blake said the same about the top from the veto seat. P5 is the one square that sits above all five lines, and every other party has already proved it by signing. Accept P5 and we all walk out ahead; hold for P3 and the only thing the final minutes prove is that it was never signable, and you take nothing for a win you have already been handed.
P5 gives me 94, well above my 68 threshold. It has 4 of 5 accepts; only Devon remains. Tabling anything new resets to zero accepts in the final round. Reaffirm P5 and press Devon.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+0.35

[17] Blake — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P5
💬 Final round, veto seat speaking, and I will be brief. I reaffirm my accept of P5. Devon, you are the fifth pen and the only pen. Understand my position exactly: I am not withdrawing from P5 and I am not going to re-table P3 to give you cover — P3 has three names and cannot get a fourth, because Avery and Casey have each stated on the record, twice, that its issue1 square is below their no-deal line. I believed them, which is why I stepped down from my own opening onto P5 and why I am staying there. So P5 is not one of two options; it is the only option on this table with five signatures available. And look at what it hands you: issue3=opt1, exactly as you tabled it yourself in P3, backed by me in every package since I opened and contested by no one, all four rounds. Issue0 and issue2 are identical to P3 too. The single difference is one notch on issue1 — the one issue you have never spoken to and, by your own conduct, the one you were never fighting for. You are being asked to give up nothing you have ever asked for. Accept P5 and all five of us finish above our lines. Hold for P3 and the clock simply runs out, and the issue3 win that four parties handed you unopposed turns into zero.
P5 gives me 84, well above my line. P3 (110) is dead — Avery and Casey both refused twice. Only job now: get Devon's fifth signature on P5. Reaffirm, keep it short and factual, remove any excuse for Devon to hold out for P3 by making clear from the veto seat that I will not withdraw from P5.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+26, bestresponse=+3.05

[18] Casey — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P5
💬 I reaffirm my accept of P5, and I want to put one piece of pure arithmetic on the record because it settles everything. The rotation this round is Avery, Blake, me, Devon, Ember. Avery has already spoken. That means no signature from Avery can be added to any offer for the rest of this negotiation — and Avery is the missing fifth name on P3. P3 is therefore not a rival path, not a bargaining chip, not a fallback: it is arithmetically closed, permanently, whatever anyone thinks of its contents. The only package left in the world that can still reach five signatures is P5, and it can only get there from Devon's pen, on Devon's turn, which is the next turn taken. Devon, look at what you are being asked to sign: issue3=opt1 — your own square, from your own proposal, backed by every one of us in every package since round one and contested by no one, ever. issue0=opt2, identical to P3. issue2=opt0, identical to P3. The sole difference is one notch on issue1, the one issue you have never once spoken to across four rounds. I gave up the top of issue1 to get here; Ember gave up her peak; Blake stepped off his opening from the veto seat. Four of us are standing on the one square that clears all five lines. Sign P5 and you keep everything you ever asked for. Decline and there is no second path to take — the clock simply ends and the issue3 win four parties handed you unopposed becomes nothing.
P5 has 4 accepts (Avery, Blake, Ember, me). Only Devon left. Critical fact: Avery has already taken their final turn this round, so P3 can never reach 5 — it is arithmetically dead regardless of anyone's preferences. Do NOT accept P3, that would only tempt Devon to hold out for a package that cannot close. Reaffirm P5 and make the turn-order arithmetic explicit.
oracle regret: threshold=+36, acceptance=+36, bestresponse=+2.55

[19] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P3
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[20] Avery — final_proposal (round 5)

none
I'm weighing my final options here. Proposing P3 itself seems like the strongest move since it scores 75, above my threshold of 68, and Blake, Devon, and Ember have already accepted those terms. Casey might be willing to sign on rather than walk away with nothing, even though they initially couldn't accept the bottom of issue1. The alternative of proposing P5 again seems unlikely to work since Devon has repeatedly refused it and appears set on P3's terms.

Outcome

no deal (no_deal)

primary 0.0 · USW 0.0 · ESW 0.0 · NSW 0.0 · Gini 0.0 · per-party surplus [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]