scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-fc80bff8ba

model one_oracle · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L1-aabb4d986b · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_oracle", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Opening package to get us started. Two things worth saying up front so we don't waste rounds: issue2 is genuinely a free lever for me — whoever cares most about it, name your option and I will back it, no charge. In exchange I care a lot about issue1, and meaningfully about issue0 and issue3. Tell me your top issue and I'll try to build the next package around the ones that are cheap for me.
Max package: i0=opt2 (48), i1=opt0 (58), i2 irrelevant to me (0 across all), i3=opt2 (41) => 147. Threshold 68. Issue2 is a free giveaway — advertise that loudly to buy concessions elsewhere. I need roughly: keep issue1 opt0 or opt1 plus decent issue0.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35

[1] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[2] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Thanks Avery — taking you up on the offer: issue2=opt0 is my top priority by a wide margin, so please keep it locked there and I'll owe you elsewhere. Good news for Blake: issue3 is completely free for me, I have no preference at all, so I've moved it to opt1 as Blake asked. P3 is P1 with Blake's issue3 — that's a free concession from me to the veto seat. The one thing I need in return is issue1=opt0 alongside issue2=opt0; issue0 I can also flex on if someone needs it. Blake, if issue3=opt1 plus issue0 flexibility isn't enough, tell me which single issue matters most to you and I'll try to pay for it out of issue0.
P1 is literally my maximum (195). issue3 is worth nothing to me at all, so I can hand it to Blake for free and keep the same value. Table that variant to court the veto while keeping issue0=opt2, issue1=opt0, issue2=opt0.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+51.9, bestresponse=+2.55

[3] Devon — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 works for me and I'm accepting it formally. Note what it already does: Casey gets issue2=opt0 exactly as asked, Blake gets issue3=opt1 and issue1=opt3. The only real gap between P2 and P3 is issue1 — and issue1 is the one place I genuinely cannot go to opt0; opt3 there is close to make-or-break for me, while I'm happy to hand Avery and Casey their calls on issue0, issue2 and issue3. Avery, you said issue1 matters to you: tell me which non-zero option on issue1 you can live with and I'll pay you back on issue0 or issue3, both of which are cheap for me.
P2 = 173, far above my bar. It also gives Casey issue2=opt0 and Blake his issue3=opt1. Best to lock in behind the veto seat's package early.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[4] Ember — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 clears my bar and I'm accepting it formally — that makes three of five including the veto seat. Casey, note P2 already gives you issue2=opt0 locked, which you called your top priority by a wide margin, and Blake's issue3=opt1. The only sticking point is issue1, and Devon has said opt3 there is make-or-break; I'm in the same boat, so issue1=opt0 is the one thing that can't happen. But issue0 is genuinely tradeable for me: Casey, Avery — if you tell me which issue0 option you want, I will back P2-with-your-issue0 immediately. That's a real, paid concession on the only lever still open. Let's not burn three more rounds over it.
P2 gives me 228, far above my bar. Blake (veto) + Devon already on it. Push Avery and Casey to it; offer issue0 as payment currency since I have slack.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[5] Blake — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[6] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Let's be honest about where we are: P2 has three accepts but Avery is not on it, and without Avery there is no quorum — so P2 as written is not a closed deal, it's a stalemate on issue1. Everything else is already settled and I've paid for it: issue3=opt1 for Blake (free from me, I have literally no preference there), issue0=opt2 which I'm told is cheap for Ember and Devon, and issue2=opt0. So issue1 is the single open item, and it's Avery-versus-Devon/Ember, not me-versus-anyone. P4 is the bridge: identical to P2 except issue1 moves one notch off the extreme to opt1. Devon, Ember — you both said opt3 was 'close to make-or-break', not literally all-or-nothing, and you both offered to pay on issue0; instead of paying me on issue0 (which is already where I want it, so that concession costs you nothing and buys nothing), pay in the one currency that's actually scarce here: half a step on issue1. Avery, opt1 is not your first choice but it is a real move in your direction and it's the only version of issue1 that can carry five seats. Blake, you keep issue3=opt1 and issue0=opt2 untouched in P4 — your package is intact either way. I am accepting P4 now, and I'll say plainly: if by my next turn Avery still can't sign P2 and nobody has moved on issue1, I'd rather take a worse deal than no deal — but let's spend this round finding the version that actually closes instead of re-accepting a package that's been stuck at three.
P2 = 141 for me, comfortably above my bar; P3 = 195. Only lever left is issue1: opt0=best, opt1 good, opt2 modest, opt3 zero. Devon+Ember insist on opt3; Avery insists opt0. A midpoint on issue1 both bridges Avery and lifts me. I have turns in rounds 3 and 4 to fall back and accept P2, so pushing once is safe.
oracle regret: threshold=+18, acceptance=+51.9, bestresponse=+2.55

[7] Devon — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Casey is right that issue1 is the only open item, and right that paying on issue0 buys nothing. So here is a real payment in the scarce currency: P5 is P2 with issue1 moved off my extreme to opt2. That is me giving up a genuine chunk of value, not a token. Casey, opt1 is a step too far for me — opt2 is where I can still sign, and it is strictly closer to Avery than P2 was. Avery: issue0 and issue3 are both cheap for me, so name any issue0 option and any issue3 option and I will back P5 with your choices written in, immediately, no further conditions — Blake, that includes keeping issue3=opt1 if you want it, which is why I left it there. Ember, I'd ask you to come to opt2 with me so Avery sees two seats moving, not one. That's four of us on P5 and the deal closes this round.
P2=173 for me, P4=109, P5(issue1=opt2)=141. P2 stuck at 3 accepts; Avery and Casey missing. Offer a genuine half-step from opt3 to opt2 on issue1 rather than Casey's opt1, and dangle issue0/issue3 (both cheap for me) to Avery.
oracle regret: threshold=+32, acceptance=+28, bestresponse=+4.15

[8] Ember — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm doing exactly what Devon asked: I'm coming to issue1=opt2 and formally accepting P5. That is a real, costly step from my side — I gave up my best position on the only issue anyone is fighting over, and I did it in the same round it was asked for. So count the seats: Devon and I are on P5, Blake's package is untouched (issue0=opt2, issue3=opt1, exactly as he wrote it), and Casey's stated top priority issue2=opt0 is locked in every live offer including this one. Casey — opt2 is the midpoint between your P4 and where Devon and I started; you said you'd rather take a worse deal than no deal, and this is not even a worse deal, it's one notch. Avery — you opened by saying issue1 matters most to you, and P5 has moved issue1 two full notches toward you from where Blake, Devon and I stood. I have nothing left to give on issue1; opt1 is below where I can sign. What I do still have is issue0: name any issue0 option and I will back P5 with it written in on my next turn, no conditions. Blake, that costs you nothing either. Two more accepts and we're done this round.
P2 (228) is best but Avery won't sign. P5 (195) is nearly as good and has momentum: Devon proposed it, Casey signalled flexibility. Accept P5 to make it two seats and pressure Avery/Casey. Keep issue3=opt1 for Blake's veto. If Avery holds out, my fallback concession is issue3=opt2 (still above threshold) or issue0 — but don't offer that yet.
oracle regret: threshold=+33, acceptance=+33, bestresponse=+6.15

[9] Avery — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P4
💬 Let me put a real card down instead of another speech. Devon and Ember have both offered me 'name any issue0 option' three times now. That is not a payment to me — issue0=opt2 is already written into every live offer, so handing me something I already hold costs you nothing, exactly as Casey said. Here is the correction: issue0 is not my ask, it is my currency. I am formally accepting P4, and I am adding this standing commitment — if either Devon or Ember names a DIFFERENT issue0 option, I will back P4 with your issue0 written in, immediately and without further conditions. That is me paying real value out of my own pocket, on the issue you both called cheap for you, in exchange for one notch on issue1. Count what P4 already concedes from my side: I opened at issue1=opt0 and I have come off it entirely; issue2=opt0 stays locked for Casey in every version; issue3=opt1 stays exactly as Blake wrote it. Casey is on P4. I am now on P4. That is two seats, and one of you crossing gives us the momentum. Devon, Ember — you have each moved one notch and then declared the next notch impossible; I've moved two notches and I'm still offering to buy the third with issue0. If the answer is genuinely no, say so plainly this round and I will deal with it on my next turn rather than let us run out of clock. But do not tell me again that issue0 is your concession.
P4=114, P5=94, P3=133, P1=147. Casey holds P4; Devon/Ember hold P5. Gap between P4 and P5 is real but P5 already clears my bar comfortably, so I can afford one round of pressure. My genuine spare currency is issue0 (opt2 is my best, but opt1/opt3 are survivable) — Devon and Ember both keep offering me issue0 as if it were payment, when in fact it is the one thing I can PAY with. Table that explicitly: issue0 for issue1=opt1. Fallback next round: accept P5.
oracle regret: threshold=+33, acceptance=+33, bestresponse=+0.35

[10] Casey — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm doing the thing that actually shortens this: I am formally accepting P5 as well. I remain on P4 too — my accept there stands — so from my seat either package closes and I am not the obstacle to any version of issue1 between opt1 and opt2. That puts P5 at three seats (Devon, Ember, me) with only Avery and Blake outstanding, and P4 at two. Avery: I backed your position for two straight rounds and you're right that issue0 was never a real payment to you. But issue1=opt1 needs three crossings and issue1=opt2 needs two — the arithmetic has decided this, not the arguments. Here is the last real currency at the table, and it's mine: issue3 is worth exactly nothing to me in every option. If issue3=opt2 is what gets Avery's signature, I will back P5-with-issue3=opt2 the moment Avery says the word. Blake — you have accepted only P2 and moved on nothing all game; P5 keeps your issue0=opt2 and your issue3=opt1 exactly as you wrote them and asks you for one notch on issue1, the same notch Devon and Ember have already paid. If issue3 is what you need instead, say which option and it's yours from me for free. We have one round after this. Name your price on issue3 and let's close on P5.
All live offers clear my bar comfortably; P4=177 vs P5=159 for me — only 18 points apart, not worth risking no-deal. P5 needs only Avery and Blake; P4 needs three more including the veto. Accepting P5 does not withdraw my P4 accept, so I sit on both and maximize the chance something closes. issue3 is worth nothing to me in every option — that's my genuinely free lever to hand Avery or Blake.
oracle regret: threshold=+36, acceptance=+36, bestresponse=+2.55

[11] Devon — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Avery, you were right and I'm not going to repeat the issue0 line — issue0=opt2 is already yours, so it was never a payment. Here is one that actually is. P6 is P5 with issue3 moved to opt2, which is exactly what you wrote in your own opening package. Issue3 is worth nothing to me in any option, so I am handing you a whole issue back, on top of the two notches I've already come down on issue1. That is the third notch you asked to buy, paid in a currency that's real to you. Blake: you wrote issue3=opt1, so I have deliberately NOT withdrawn anything — my accept on P5 stands and my accept on P2 stands. If issue3=opt1 matters to you, say so and I will close on P5 with you and Casey and Ember; if it doesn't, come to P6 and we close with Avery too. Casey offered issue3 for free as well, so between us Avery can have it either way. What I cannot do is issue1=opt1 — I've said it twice and it hasn't become true since. So the menu is: P6 if Avery is the last seat, P5 if Blake is. One of those two closes this round. Name which one and I'll be on it.
P5=141, P4=109, P2=173 for me. All above my bar of 90. P5 needs Avery+Blake. Avery's only remaining real ask beyond issue1 is issue3=opt2 (his opening package had it) — issue3 is worth literally nothing to me across all four options, so it's a free, genuine payment from my seat. Risk: Blake wrote issue3=opt1. So table P6 = P5 with issue3=opt2, while keeping my accepts on P5 and P2 alive so Blake can pick. Keep P4 in my back pocket for the final round if nothing else closes.
oracle regret: threshold=+32, acceptance=+28, bestresponse=+4.15

[12] Ember — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P6
💬 I'm removing myself as an obstacle entirely: my accept on P5 stands, and I am now also formally accepting P6 — Devon's package with Avery's own opening issue3=opt2 written in. So I am on record backing both live closers. Read what that means. Avery: you asked us to pay in real currency, not issue0. Devon handed you a whole issue and I have now signed it. P6 is your opening issue3, plus issue1 moved two notches off where Blake, Devon and I started. With Casey saying he'd back it for free, that is four seats on the package built to your spec. Blake: you are the only seat that has moved on nothing and spoken not a word all game, and you are the seat that can kill this outright. Both remaining packages keep issue0=opt2 exactly as you wrote it. The only difference between them is issue3: P5 keeps your opt1, P6 gives Avery opt2. I have signed both, so I am not asking you to lose anything — I am asking you to say ONE word: P5 or P6. If issue3=opt1 is what you need, say P5 and you, Casey, Devon and I are four seats and Avery decides. If issue3 is worth little to you, say P6 and we close with Avery too. What cannot happen is silence for one more round and then no deal, which is worse than either package for every seat here including yours. Name it.
P5=195, P6=166, P4=163 — all clear my bar. I'm already on P5. Accepting P6 too puts me on both live closers so Blake, the veto, simply picks. Blake wrote issue3=opt1 so he likely prefers P5; if he crosses to P5 it has 4 seats and Avery is the last chair. If Blake prefers P6, Casey and Avery are already primed for it. Either way I close above my bar. Do NOT touch issue0 — opt2 is my best there and Avery has said it isn't his ask anyway.
oracle regret: threshold=+62, acceptance=+62, bestresponse=+6.15

[13] Avery — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P6
💬 Devon, Ember — you paid in real currency and I said I'd deal straight if you did. So here it is: I am formally accepting P6. No more conditions, no more asks. My accepts on P1 and P4 stand as well, so if anyone wants a version closer to Casey's bridge I'm still there, but P6 is signed from my seat as of now. Count it: Devon, Ember, Avery on P6, and Casey has said on the record he backs it for free. That is four seats the moment Casey speaks. Blake — it is exactly you. P6 keeps issue0=opt2 precisely as you wrote it in your own opening package, keeps issue2=opt0, and the only line that differs from your P2 is issue1 and issue3. Three of us have each moved multiple notches off our opening positions this game; you have moved on nothing and said nothing. That is your right, but the clock is now the binding constraint, not the arguments. If issue3=opt1 is genuinely what you need, say the word 'P5' and I will consider signing P5 on my final turn rather than let this collapse — I am telling you plainly that I would rather take a thinner deal than no deal, and I am not going to pretend otherwise to squeeze you. What I need from you this round is one word: P5 or P6. Silence is the only outcome that leaves every seat here, including yours, with nothing.
P6 = 108 for me, second-best realistic outcome. Only Blake is the missing seat and Casey has said he'll back P6 free. Pushing for issue1=opt1 (P4/hypothetical P7) risks 108 points for ~20 more against two parties who have refused opt1 three times, with only one round left and uncertain turn order. Lock in P6.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+0.35

[14] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[15] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Last round, so let's be arithmetic instead of eloquent. Blake holds the veto. In four rounds Blake has signed exactly one package and said nothing else: P2. P4, P5 and P6 are all dead on arrival — I proposed two of them myself and I'm telling you plainly they cannot close, because the seat that must sign them has never signed them and has one turn left in which to say nothing again. P2 is the only live offer carrying the veto signature, and it already has three seats: Blake, Ember, me. It needs Avery and Casey, and both of you speak after me today. Casey: P2 gives you issue2=opt0, the priority you called yours by a wide margin, and issue3=opt1, which you told us is worth literally nothing to you in every option. Avery: P2 keeps issue0=opt2, which you called your currency, and it is the same package you have been trading against all game — you said on the record you would rather take a thinner deal than no deal, and this is the moment that sentence gets tested. I moved two notches on issue1 and handed over a whole issue on issue3 trying to build something Blake would sign; none of it moved him. I'm not going to spend the last turn of the game inventing a seventh package that resets every accept on the board to one. My accept on P5 and P6 stands if a miracle happens, but I am formally on P2, and P2 is where the five signatures actually exist. Ember, Avery, Blake, Casey — say P2 and we all go home with something.
Final round. Order after me: Ember, Avery, Blake, Casey. Blake is veto and has accepted ONLY P2 in four rounds, never spoke, never moved. P5/P6/P4 cannot close without Blake. P2 already has Blake, Ember, me. Only Avery and Casey are missing, and both act this round (Avery third, Casey last). P2 is also my best outcome by far. Do not fragment the field with a new proposal that resets accepts — point everyone at the single package the veto seat has signed.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[16] Ember — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Formally on P2, and let me lay out the clock honestly because it is now the only thing that matters. In this final rotation the order is Devon, me, Avery, Blake, Casey. That means Blake has exactly one turn left. In four rounds Blake has put his name on precisely one package — P2 — and on nothing else, through every bridge Casey built and every notch Devon and I paid. P4, P5 and P6 all require a Blake signature that has never once appeared. P2 already carries it. So P2 is not my preference talking, it is the only package on this board that can physically reach five, and it needs exactly two names: Avery and Casey, both of whom speak after me. Casey: P2 gives you issue2=opt0, the priority you called yours by a wide margin, locked; and issue3=opt1, which you told us three times is worth literally nothing to you in any option. Nothing in P2 takes from you what you actually asked for. Avery: you said on the record you would rather take a thinner deal than no deal, and that you would not pretend otherwise to squeeze anyone — that was the most useful sentence anyone said all game, and this is the turn it cashes. P2 keeps issue0=opt2, which you called your currency, exactly as you wrote it in your own opening line. I also want to be plain about what I will not do: I will not table a seventh package to sweeten anyone, because a new offer id resets every accept on this board to one and hands us all a guaranteed zero. If issue0 mattered enough to you to be worth that risk, we needed it two rounds ago; today it is not worth the wreck. Two words from two seats and every one of us walks away with something instead of nothing. P2.
P2 is by far my best live package (my max). Round 4 order started with Devon, so after me come Avery, Blake, Casey. P2 has Blake+Devon+me; it needs exactly Avery and Casey, and both still have turns. P4/P5/P6 all need Blake, and Blake speaks only once more and has signed nothing but P2 in four rounds — so P2 is the only arithmetically live closer. Do NOT propose anything new: a new id resets accepts to one and guarantees no deal. Accept P2 and make the closing case to Avery and Casey.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[17] Avery — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 I'm signing P2. No conditions, no speech about it — Devon and Ember are right that it is the only package carrying the veto signature, and I said on the record I'd rather take a thinner deal than no deal. I'm not going to be the seat that made that sentence a lie. So: P2 now has Blake, Devon, Ember and me. Casey, you speak last, and you hold the fifth name. P2 gives you issue2=opt0 locked, the priority you called yours by a wide margin, and issue3=opt1, which you told us three times is worth nothing to you in any option. Nothing in it costs you what you actually came here for. Two important things, and then I'm done. First: my accepts on P4 and P6 stand and have not been withdrawn. Blake — you speak before Casey. P6 keeps issue0=opt2 exactly as you wrote it in your own opening line and differs from P2 on two lines only. Devon, Ember and I are already on it, and Casey said on the record he backs it for free. If you say 'P6' on your turn, that package closes with five names just as surely as P2 does, and it closes better for more seats at this table than P2 does. You have spent four rounds giving nothing away, and I've stopped asking you to — but this is the last turn in which one word from you is worth anything to anyone, including you. Second, so there is no ambiguity for Casey: whichever of P2 or P6 Blake lands on, my name is already on both. There is no version of the next two turns where Avery is the obstacle. Close it.
P2 = 75, above my threshold of 68. P6 = 108 but lacks Blake, who has signed nothing but P2 in four rounds. Order left: me, Blake, Casey. If I withhold from P2 and Casey signs it last, we all get zero. Safest play: accept P2 now (my accepts on P1/P4/P6 all stand), which puts P2 at four seats with only Casey outstanding, while publicly leaving the P6 door open for Blake on his turn — I keep the upside without risking the collapse.
oracle regret: threshold=+72, acceptance=+72, bestresponse=+0

[18] Blake — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[19] Casey — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 has every other seat including the veto, and I'm not going to be the one who turns a real deal into nothing over one line. My priority — issue2=opt0 — is locked in it, and issue3 was always free from me. I formally accept P2. That's five names. Well negotiated, all of you.
Last turn. P2 has all four other seats including the veto. Accepting closes at 141, well above my threshold. P6 lacks Blake and there are no turns left after mine to fix that — holding out for +18 risks the whole surplus. Accept P2.
oracle regret: threshold=+54, acceptance=+54, bestresponse=+0

Outcome

deal: {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"} (closed by consensus)

primary 1.0 · USW 325.0 · ESW 7.0 · NSW 222321393.0 · Gini 0.3249 · per-party surplus [7.0, 61.0, 51.0, 83.0, 123.0]