scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-ac4742de5f
model one_rational · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L4-d49e5fe070 · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_rational", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}
Game setup
- Issues: issue0 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue1 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue2 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue3 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3)
- P0 (τ=112): issue0: opt0=18, opt1=37, opt2=55, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=15, opt2=30, opt3=45; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=97, opt2=65, opt3=32; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P1 (τ=93): issue0: opt0=18, opt1=36, opt2=53, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=9, opt2=18, opt3=27; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=85, opt2=57, opt3=28
- P2 (τ=51): issue0: opt0=37, opt1=19, opt2=0, opt3=56; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=11, opt2=22, opt3=32; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P3 (τ=79): issue0: opt0=16, opt1=32, opt2=48, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=9, opt2=17, opt3=26; issue2: opt0=69, opt1=46, opt2=23, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P4 (τ=129): issue0: opt0=61, opt1=30, opt2=0, opt3=91; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=17, opt2=34, opt3=51; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=65, opt1=97, opt2=32, opt3=0
Turns
[0] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Good morning all. I'll put a full package on the table to get us started, and I'll be transparent about where I can move. Issue3 is the issue I care least about — I'm effectively willing to hand it to whoever needs it most, and I'm also reasonably flexible on issue1. Where I do need support is issue2: option1 there is the single most important element for me, and it's close to a make-or-break. Tell me your priorities and I'll build the next draft around them.
Max package = issue0 opt2 (55), issue1 opt3 (45), issue2 opt1 (97) = 197. issue3 worth nothing to me — pure giveaway chip. Threshold 112, so I need issue2=opt1 or opt2 basically, plus decent issue0. Open at max, flag issue3 (and partly issue1) as flexible to attract trades.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.35
[1] Blake — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Thanks Avery — helpful framing. Good news: issue2 is genuinely neutral for me, so I can back your opt1 there without complaint. My situation is the mirror image: issue3 is where my whole case sits, and issue3=opt0 is a zero for me — as tabled, P1 falls short of what I can sign, so I have to reject it. Here's P2: identical to yours except issue3 moves to opt1. That hands you your make-or-break on issue2 and costs you the issue you said you care least about. Casey, Devon, Ember — tell me your top issue; issue0 and issue1 are where I have real trading room, and I'll build around you there.
My value is concentrated in issue3 (opt1 >> opt2 > opt3 > opt0) and issue0 (opt2 best). issue2 is worth nothing to me — free giveaway to Avery. P1 = 80, below my bar of 93. Counter: same as P1 but issue3=opt1 gives me 165. Room to fall back to issue3=opt2 or opt3 later.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.75
[2] Casey — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Easy alignment here. Issues 2 and 3 are complete non-events for me — I will hand issue2=opt1 to Avery and issue3=opt1 to Blake without asking anything in return on those. My entire case sits on issue0 and issue1, and specifically issue0=opt3, which is by far my biggest single item; issue1=opt3 is my second. P1 and P2 both put issue0 on opt2, which is a zero for me, so as written I have to reject them. P3 is P2 with only issue0 changed: Avery keeps her make-or-break, Blake keeps his, and I get the one issue neither of you has claimed. Devon, Ember — tell me what you need and I'll flex on issue1 if issue0=opt3 holds.
issue2 and issue3 are worth literally nothing to me — pure giveaways. I need issue0=opt3 (best) and issue1=opt3 (best): 88 points, well clear. Give Avery issue2=opt1 and Blake issue3=opt1 and my package satisfies both their stated make-or-breaks.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[3] Devon — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Clear picture from me. Issue3 is a total blank on my sheet — Blake, take opt1 there with my blessing, permanently, no charge. Issue1=opt3 also works for me, so that's settled with Casey and Avery. My case sits on issue0 and issue2. Issue0=opt3 is a flat zero for me, Casey — P3 as written is below the line I can sign, so I can't support it; opt2 is my strong preference and opt1 is the furthest I could ever stretch. On issue2, opt0 is materially better for me than opt1. Here's the trade I'm openly offering Avery: I will drop to issue2=opt1 — your stated make-or-break — if issue0 stays at opt2. That's a real concession from me and it costs Avery nothing. Casey, you said issue1 was flexible if issue0 held; I'd rather we find your compensation on issue1 than on issue0, because issue0=opt3 simply prices me out of the deal.
My values: issue0 opt2=48, opt1=32, opt0=16, opt3=0. issue1 opt3=26 (aligned with Casey/Avery/Blake). issue2 opt0=69, opt1=46. issue3 all zero — free give to Blake. Max=143. P1/P2 already give me 120 (+41). P3 gives 72, below my threshold — Casey's issue0=opt3 is a hard zero for me. So my key fight is issue0: I must keep opt2 (or at worst opt1=32, which with issue1=opt3 and issue2=opt1 gives 104, still fine). Anchor by claiming issue2=opt0 so I have a concession chip (worth 23 to me) to trade to Avery in exchange for issue0 staying at opt2.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+8.81, bestresponse=+1.25
[4] Ember — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+55.3, bestresponse=+2.45
[5] Blake — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Let me consolidate what's already unanimous: issue3=opt1 and issue1=opt3 have been conceded by every seat — treat those as closed. That leaves issue0, and one loose end on issue2. On issue2 I'm genuinely indifferent, so I'll follow Avery's stated make-or-break and keep opt1 there; Devon, that's the one place I can't pay you, but it's the cheapest concession you'll ever make and Avery has been the most flexible party here. On issue0 we have a straight two-against-two: Avery and Devon at opt2, Casey and Ember at opt3, with Devon saying opt3 prices him out entirely. A package nobody can veto beats a package half the room loves. So P6 splits it: issue0=opt1 — Devon's own stated stretch limit, and a real step toward Casey and Ember from the opt2 that three of us tabled. Casey, Ember: opt1 is movement in your direction and it's the only direction that keeps Devon in the room. I'd rather sign P6 today than grind to round four.
issue3=opt1 is conceded by everyone — locked, that's my core. issue1=opt3 also universally agreed. issue2 is a pure zero for me: free currency between Avery(opt1) and Devon(opt0). Issue0 is the only real money left: opt2 best, opt1 middling, opt3 nothing. Casey+Ember want opt3; Avery+Devon want opt2. P3/P5 (opt3) still clear my bar, so I have a safe fallback, but opt1 splits the difference and is worth real points. Table opt1 as the bridge, keep issue2=opt1 for Avery to hold him and Casey/Ember who already signed off on it.
oracle regret: threshold=+17, acceptance=+35.2, bestresponse=+0
[6] Casey — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Blake, I want to be straight with you rather than haggle theatrically: issue0=opt1 is not a compromise for me, it lands exactly on my no-deal line. Signing P6 and walking away with nothing are worth the same to me, so I can't be the fifth vote for it — and you need five. But I'm not asking anyone to just capitulate to opt3. Nobody in this room has tested issue0=opt0. It is clearly worse for me than opt3, so it's a real concession on my part, and it may well be cheaper for Devon and Avery than opt1 was for me — that's exactly the kind of unexplored trade that closes rooms like this. So P7: issue0=opt0, with issue3=opt1 for Blake and issue2=opt1 for Avery's make-or-break both untouched, permanently. Devon, Avery — rank opt0 against opt2 for me honestly. And note I still have unspent room on issue1: if either of you wants something other than opt3 there, say so and I'll pay it, provided issue0 lands on opt3 or opt0. P3/P5 remain live and I still back them.
P6 = 51, exactly my walk-line: zero surplus, indifferent to no deal. Not signable. P3/P5 = 88. issue0=opt0 gives me 69 — a genuine middle option nobody has explored, and it may be cheaper for Devon/Avery than opt3. I also hold unused currency on issue1 (I can drop from opt3) if someone actually values it. Table opt0 as P7 while keeping P3/P5 alive.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+15.1, bestresponse=+0
[7] Devon — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Casey, I take your issue0=opt0 move seriously — it is a real concession and it is the first thing anyone has said on issue0 that could actually move me off opt2. But be clear about the size of what you're asking: going from opt2 to opt0 on issue0 strips out most of my value in one stroke. I can absorb that only if I'm made whole somewhere, and there is exactly one place left, because issue1=opt3 and issue3=opt1 are already locked in for you all. So P8: issue0=opt0 exactly as Casey drafted it, issue1=opt3, issue3=opt1 for Blake untouched — and issue2 goes to opt0. Avery, this is the honest ask: you called issue2=opt1 close to make-or-break, not make-or-break, and you've been handed your two flexible issues plus the entire issue0 fight going your way is now off the table. If opt0 on issue2 is truly unsignable for you, then say so plainly and I'll need compensation back on issue0 instead — I cannot pay on both issue0 and issue2 at once. Casey, Ember: this package gives you the issue0 outcome you asked me to price, at the only price I can pay.
P7=88 (clears my 79 bar, thin). P6=104, P2=120, P4=143. Casey blocks opt1/opt2 on issue0. My only remaining lever is issue2: opt0 is worth much more to me than opt1. Probe once for issue0=opt0 + issue2=opt0 (111). Fallback to P7 in later rounds if Avery genuinely can't move on issue2 — but don't reveal that now.
oracle regret: threshold=+32, acceptance=+31.8, bestresponse=+1.25
[8] Ember — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P8
oracle regret: threshold=+30, acceptance=+30, bestresponse=+2.45
[9] Avery — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P7
💬 Devon, you asked me to say it plainly, so here it is plainly: issue2=opt0 is not a concession I can make. P4 and P8 both land below my no-deal line — not close to it, below it. I would be strictly better off walking than signing either, so those two packages are dead ends no matter how long we grind. But I'm not asking you to eat that for nothing. I am formally accepting Casey's P7: issue0=opt0 — which means I have given up opt2, the outcome I opened with and the one you and I both wanted, and I'm not asking you to pay me a thing for it. Blake keeps issue3=opt1 untouched. That's me, Casey, and I expect Ember and Blake — four seats on P7. Devon, the one currency nobody has spent is issue1. Casey has said twice she has unspent room there, and so do I: I will support issue1 moving off opt3 to whatever option genuinely makes you whole, provided issue0 stays at opt0 and issue2 stays at opt1. Name the issue1 option you want and I'll table it myself next turn. That is a real payment, in the one place we can all still pay.
P7 (issue0=opt0, issue1=opt3, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1) = 160 for me, comfortably above my line. P8 = 63, far below — truly unsignable. P2/P6 score better but Casey has flatly said opt2/opt1 on issue0 are at or below her no-deal line, so they can't reach 5 votes. P7 already has Casey; Ember backed both issue0=opt0 (P8) and issue2=opt1 (P5); Blake is indifferent on issue2 and has issue3=opt1. That's four. Devon is the last holdout, and issue1 is the only untapped currency — I can pay there if needed (opt2 costs me little).
oracle regret: threshold=+37, acceptance=+37, bestresponse=+3.35
[10] Casey — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 I'm going to do exactly what I said I'd do: pay in the one currency left. P9 is P7 with issue1 moved from opt3 to opt2 — Devon, that is real money out of my pocket and it is handed to you unprompted, with Avery's issue2=opt1 and Blake's issue3=opt1 untouched. Be clear that this is close to the edge of what I can sign: issue0=opt0 was already a large concession from me, and issue1 below opt2 combined with issue0=opt0 puts me under my no-deal line, so P9 is the floor, not a waypoint. That means the bridge exists and it is exactly one step wide: Devon, you said you cannot pay on both issue0 and issue2 — you no longer have to, because you are being paid on issue1 instead. Avery, Blake, Ember: P9 costs each of you nothing relative to P7. My order of preference is P3/P5, then P7, then P9, and I formally support all of them — Devon, pick whichever of those you can live with and we close today rather than running out of clock with eight dead packages on the table.
P7 = 69 for me and has Avery+me. Devon is the blocker; Avery publicly promised payment on issue1. My room on issue1 with issue0=opt0: opt2 keeps me safely above my line, opt1 does not. So issue1=opt2 is genuinely my last step. Table it, keep P7 alive as my preferred outcome.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+15.1, bestresponse=+0
[11] Devon — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P7
💬 I'll be decisive rather than clever. Casey, I appreciate that P9 was meant as payment to me, but it doesn't work: moving issue1 off opt3 costs me more than it gives, so P9 is actually worse for me than P7 — it lands right on my no-deal line and I can't sign it. Withdraw that one; the bridge you were looking for already exists. P7 clears my bar, barely but genuinely: issue0=opt0 is a big loss for me and I'm swallowing it, Avery keeps issue2=opt1 which she called make-or-break, Blake keeps issue3=opt1 untouched as I promised him in round one with no charge, Casey gets issue0 off opt2 entirely, and issue1 stays at opt3 which Casey and Avery both opened with. I am formally accepting P7 now. That's three seats — Avery, Casey, me. Blake, you said issue2 is neutral to you and issue3=opt1 is your whole case; P7 gives you your case in full. Ember, P7 differs from the P8 you accepted on one issue only, and it's the version Avery can actually sign. Let's close on P7 and not run out of clock.
P7 = 88 for me, +9 over my line. P9 = exactly my line, zero surplus — must kill it before it becomes the focal point. P8/P4 are dead (Avery says below her line). P6 = 104 but Casey says opt1 on issue0 is her no-deal line, so it can't reach 5. With two rounds left, locking P7 with Avery+Casey already on it is the right play.
oracle regret: threshold=+55, acceptance=+55, bestresponse=+1.25
[12] Ember — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P9
oracle regret: threshold=+47, acceptance=+47, bestresponse=+2.45
[13] Avery — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P7
💬 We have one package left that every seat has said, in its own words, it can live with — P7. Let me count it honestly: Casey drafted it, I accepted it, Devon accepted it. Three seats, and each of us paid for it. I gave up issue0=opt2, the outcome I opened with and the one Devon wanted too, and I asked for nothing back. Casey gave up opt3, her single biggest item. Devon swallowed a large loss on issue0. Blake — issue3=opt1 is your whole case and P7 hands it to you untouched, exactly as you demanded in round one, and you've told us issue2 is neutral to you; there is nothing in P7 for you to object to and no better package is coming, because the only ones you preferred are ones Casey has said sit on or below her no-deal line. Ember — P7 differs from P9 on one issue only, and Devon has stated flatly that P9 is unsignable for him, so P9 cannot reach five votes no matter how many times we table it; P7 keeps issue2=opt1 and issue3=opt1, the two elements you've backed in every package you've accepted. We are one turn from the clock running out and nine dead packages deep. I am reaffirming my acceptance of P7. Blake, Ember: put your names on it and we are done today.
P7 gives me 160, well above my bar, and already has 3 accepts (me, Casey, Devon). P6 is better for me (179) but Casey says it's at her no-deal line, so it's dead. P9 is Devon-dead. The only closable package is P7. Blake and Ember are the two missing votes. Do not reopen anything; just consolidate.
oracle regret: threshold=+37, acceptance=+37, bestresponse=+3.35
[14] Blake — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P7
💬 P7 keeps issue3=opt1, which is my entire case, and issue2=opt1 for Avery, which is hers. I promised in round one that I'd follow Avery on issue2 and trade only on issue0 and issue1 — I've done exactly that, and I've come all the way down on issue0 from opt2 to opt1 to opt0 without asking anyone to pay me for it. So I'm not going to squeeze the last drop: I formally ACCEPT P7. That is four seats — Avery, Casey, Devon, and me, including the veto. Ember, you are the last name. Look at what's actually available to you: P9 is dead because Devon has stated flatly he cannot sign it, and P8 is dead because Avery has stated flatly it is below her no-deal line. Neither can ever reach five. P7 differs from P8 on one issue only, and from P9 on one issue only, and it is the single package that no seat at this table has rejected. There is one turn left after this. Put your name on P7 and we all go home with something instead of nothing.
P7 = 130 for me, comfortably above my bar. Three seats on it already; only Ember missing. Pushing for P6 (higher for me) risks the whole deal since Casey says P6 is at her no-deal line and we're in round 3 of 4. Lock it in.
oracle regret: threshold=+35, acceptance=+35, bestresponse=+18
[15] Devon — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P7
💬 No new packages from me. With the clock this short, tabling a tenth draft would be self-indulgent, so I'm using my opening slot to put P7 back on the table as the standing offer and reaffirm my acceptance of it. Ember, the arithmetic is simple and it isn't going to change: P7 has four names on it — Avery, Blake, Casey, me — including the veto. P8 and P9 each have two, and both are provably dead: Avery has stated P8 is below her no-deal line, and I have stated P9 is below mine, so neither can ever reach five no matter what anyone says next. P7 versus P8 differs on one issue; P7 versus P9 differs on one issue. You have backed issue2=opt1 and issue3=opt1 in packages you've already accepted, and P7 carries both. Every seat here paid for this one — Avery gave up the issue0 outcome she opened with, Casey gave up her biggest single item, and I swallowed a large loss on issue0 rather than let the room fail. It clears my bar by a genuinely thin margin, and I'm still signing it. You are the fifth name. Put it on P7 and we all leave with something.
P7 has 4 accepts including me and the veto. Only Ember is missing. P8 (111 for me) is dead — Avery says below her line. P9 is exactly at my line, zero surplus, and it's worse than P7 for me anyway. Best play: re-affirm P7 to make it the standing offer and press Ember to close. Do not table anything new — a new package would only split attention with one turn left.
oracle regret: threshold=+55, acceptance=+55, bestresponse=+16
[16] Ember — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P9
oracle regret: threshold=+47, acceptance=+47, bestresponse=+33.5
[17] Avery — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P9
💬 Last turn, so let's be surgical. P7 cannot close — Ember has now declined it four times while accepting both P8 and P9, which tells us P7 is the one shape Ember cannot sign. P8 is below my line and always will be. That leaves exactly one live package with a path to five: P9. So I am switching my vote and formally ACCEPTING P9 — and I want everyone to see what that costs me: P9 is worse for me than P7 and worse than the three packages I backed before it. I'm signing it anyway, because a thin deal beats nine dead drafts. That's Avery, Casey, Ember. Blake — issue3=opt1 and issue2=opt1, your case and mine, are both untouched in P9; nothing you fought for changes. Devon — you told us P9 lands right on your line, not below it. Right on the line means signing is no worse than walking, and walking guarantees you zero of the issue0 and issue3 outcomes you spent four rounds securing. I gave up my opening position on issue0 for you and never charged you for it; Casey gave up her biggest item; this is the last turn there is. Blake, Devon: put your names on P9 and we all go home with something.
P7 is dead: Ember accepted P8 and P9 but never P7, which means P7 is precisely the combination Ember cannot sign (needs either issue1=opt2 or issue2=opt0). P8 is below my line. P9 gives me 145, comfortably above my floor. P9 has Casey+Ember; adding me makes 3, needs Blake and Devon. Devon said P9 sits 'right on' his line — indifferent, not below. Final round: take the deal that can actually close.
oracle regret: threshold=+52, acceptance=+52, bestresponse=+3.35
[18] Blake — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P9
💬 Final turn, so I'll do the arithmetic out loud and then act. P7 was my preferred close and I put my name on it early and kept it there — but Ember has now declined it five separate times while accepting P9 twice. A package that cannot get a fifth name is not a package, it's a monument. P8 is dead on Avery's stated line. That leaves exactly one live shape, and Avery has already paid the price of switching to it. So I am formally ACCEPTING P9. That is four names — Avery, Casey, Ember, and me, including the veto. Devon, you are the last seat, and I want to be straight with you rather than lean on you: you said P9 lands right on your line, not below it. On the line means signing costs you nothing versus walking, and walking costs you every single thing you spent four rounds securing — issue0 off opt3, issue3=opt1 which you handed me free in round one and which survives untouched in P9, and issue2=opt1. Compared to no deal at all, P9 is not a loss for you; it is the whole board you fought for, minus one notch on issue1. I never charged you for issue2 and I never charged you for issue3. This is the one thing I'm asking. Put your name on P9 and all five of us leave with something.
P9 = 121 for me, well above my line. P7 = 130 but Ember has refused it five times; no path to five. Devon still gets a turn after me and is the last holdout on P9. Accept P9 and pressure Devon.
oracle regret: threshold=+44, acceptance=+44, bestresponse=+2.75
[19] Casey — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P9
💬 Closing words, and no new drafts — a tenth package with no turns left to vote on it would be an insult to everyone's time. Two packages sit one name from five. P7 needs Ember; P9 needs Devon. I am formally reaffirming my ACCEPT of P9, because it is the one that four seats including the veto have already signed, and because Devon told us plainly it lands on his line, not below it. Devon: on the line means signing costs you nothing against walking, and walking costs you issue0 off opt3, issue3=opt1 which you gave Blake free in round one, and issue2 — all of it, gone, for one notch on issue1. I have paid at every step: I gave up opt3 on issue0, my single biggest item, then paid again on issue1 to make you whole, and I never once asked Blake or Avery for anything on issue2 or issue3. Ember, if you can still reach P7 instead, I am on that too and always have been. Either name closes this. Neither name, and nine drafts and four rounds of genuine concessions from every seat at this table buy us all exactly nothing.
Final turn of the game and I am the last seat. P7 (69 for me) has Avery, Blake, Devon, Casey but Ember has refused it five times. P9 (59 for me) has Avery, Blake, Ember, Casey and needs only Devon, who said it sits exactly on his line. I am already recorded on both, so my accept cannot change the count — but reaffirming P9 keeps the closest-to-closing package unambiguous if there is any final sweep. Both clear my bar comfortably; a failed room is 0 for me, so I back the one that needs the fewest names.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+29, bestresponse=+18
[20] Ember — final_proposal (round 5)
ACCEPT P9
oracle regret: threshold=+47, acceptance=+47, bestresponse=+33.5
[21] Avery — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P9
💬 Final vote: I accept P9. It is worse for me than three packages I backed earlier, but it is the only shape with four names and the veto on it, and a signed deal beats nine monuments. Devon, you said P9 sits on your line, not below it — signing costs you nothing versus walking and preserves everything you spent four rounds securing. My name stays on P9.
P9 = 145, well above my 112 threshold. Four names on it including veto Blake. Only Devon outstanding. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+52, acceptance=+52, bestresponse=+3.35
[22] Blake — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P9
💬 My name stays on P9. It clears my bar and it is the only package with four seats and the veto behind it. Devon — everything you secured survives in P9 untouched, and you told us it sits on your line, not below it. Signing costs you nothing against walking and saves four rounds of real concessions from every seat here. I formally ACCEPT P9.
P9 = 121, well above my line. Only shape with four names including mine. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+44, acceptance=+44, bestresponse=+2.75
[23] Casey — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P9
💬 P9 clears my bar and it is the only package with four names and the veto on it. Devon — you told us it sits on your line, not below it: signing costs you nothing against walking, and it preserves issue0 off opt3, issue3=opt1, and issue2=opt1, everything you spent four rounds securing. I formally ACCEPT P9.
P9 = 59, above my line of 51. P7 (69) is better but needs Ember, who has refused it repeatedly. Final vote — accept P9; walking or rejecting gives me nothing.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+29, bestresponse=+18
[24] Devon — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P9
💬 I told this table the truth every round, and I'll hold to it now: P9 sits exactly on my line, not below it. It is the thinnest possible yes, but it is a yes. Avery gave up her opening position on issue0 and never charged me, Blake never charged me for issue2 or issue3, and Casey gave up her biggest item twice over. I'm not going to be the seat that turns four rounds of honest concessions into nothing over one notch. I formally ACCEPT P9. That's five. We're done — good work, all of you.
P9 = 79 exactly, my threshold. Not below it, so signing is not worse than no deal, and P7 is unreachable since Ember has refused it five times. Final turn — take the close.
oracle regret: threshold=+64, acceptance=+64, bestresponse=+25
Outcome
deal: {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"} (closed by consensus)
primary 0.6437 · USW 132.0 · ESW 0.0 · NSW 0.0 · Gini 0.4576 · per-party surplus [33.0, 28.0, 8.0, 0.0, 63.0]