scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-d057e24889
model one_rational · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L3-d9a0ef3c04 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_rational", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}
Game setup
- Issues: issue0 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue1 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue2 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue3 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3)
- P0 (τ=95): issue0: opt0=19, opt1=57, opt2=38, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=12, opt1=37, opt2=25, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=32, opt1=0, opt2=65, opt3=97
- P1 (τ=46): issue0: opt0=48, opt1=0, opt2=24, opt3=71; issue1: opt0=7, opt1=21, opt2=14, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P2 (τ=46): issue0: opt0=21, opt1=63, opt2=42, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=10, opt1=29, opt2=20, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
- P3 (τ=101): issue0: opt0=41, opt1=0, opt2=21, opt3=62; issue1: opt0=19, opt1=56, opt2=37, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=14, opt2=42, opt3=28; issue3: opt0=42, opt1=28, opt2=0, opt3=14
- P4 (τ=116): issue0: opt0=54, opt1=0, opt2=27, opt3=80; issue1: opt0=19, opt1=58, opt2=39, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=31, opt1=93, opt2=62, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0
Turns
[0] Blake — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Good morning all. Let me open by being useful rather than greedy: issues 2 and 3 are genuinely low-priority for me, and I will take whatever options the rest of you converge on there — treat those two as yours to allocate. What I do need is a favourable outcome on issue0, and secondarily on issue1. So here is P1 as a starting frame: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt1, with issue2 and issue3 set as placeholders that I am happy to change to anything you collectively prefer. Tell me your top picks on issue2 and issue3 and I'll fold them in immediately.
Best: issue0=opt3 (71), issue1=opt1 (21) = 92. Issues 2 and 3 are worth nothing to me — pure currency to trade. Floor: I basically need issue0 = opt3 or opt0. Open ambitiously, advertise flexibility on issue2/issue3 to attract accepts.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.15
[1] Casey — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Thanks Blake — helpful framing, and I'll match it. Here's my honest map: issue0 is the one thing that genuinely decides whether a deal beats no-deal for me, and issue0=opt3 is my worst possible outcome there — I can't sign anything built on it. In exchange, I will hand over issues 1, 2 and 3 to whoever needs them; I have almost no stake in issue2 and issue3 at all and only a mild preference on issue1. So P2: issue0=opt1, and the other three are yours to set — tell me your picks on issue1/2/3 and I'll fold them in verbatim next round. Blake, if opt1 on issue0 is impossible for you, tell me whether opt2 works; there may be a middle. Avery, Devon, Ember — please say where issue0 lands for you so we find out fast whether this is a real fight or an easy trade.
issue0 dominates my sheet (opt1 best by far, opt2 decent, opt3 zero). issue1 opt1 is a nice bonus. issues 2/3 worth nothing to me — pure trading chips. P1 gives me 29, below my bar. Counter with issue0=opt1 and signal total flexibility elsewhere. Fallback: issue0=opt2 plus issue1=opt1 also clears.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.2
[2] Devon — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Useful openings, both. My cards on the table: issue0=opt3 works fine for me, issue0=opt1 is my dead zone — P2 as written falls below my no-deal line, so I can't sign it. The fix is cheap, though: on issue2 I need opt2 (opt0 is worth literally nothing to me), and on issue3 opt0 is my best. So P3 is the bridge: issue0=opt2 as the Casey/Blake middle Casey himself floated, issue1=opt1 which Blake needs and nobody has objected to, issue2=opt2 and issue3=opt0 — the two issues Blake and Casey both said they'd hand over. Blake, if opt2 on issue0 is workable for you, P3 closes fast; if you must have opt3 there, then P1 with issue2 moved to opt2 also works for me and I'd back it. Avery, Ember — speak up on issue2 and issue3 now and I'll fold you in.
P1=160 for me, excellent. P2=98, just below my bar — I cannot sign P2 as written. Best move: table a bridge that keeps issue1=opt1, gives me issue2=opt2 and issue3=opt0, and uses issue0=opt2 as the Blake/Casey middle. That scores 161 for me, on par with P1.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+17.3, bestresponse=+2.6
[3] Ember — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Here's my map, plainly. Issue3 is worth nothing to me on any option — it's a free gift, whoever wants it, name it and it's yours. On issue1, opt1 works for me, so that's settled. My one real ask is issue2=opt1. Devon, you said opt0 is worthless to you on issue2 and you need opt2 — but opt1 is where my value sits, so tell me how far apart opt1 and opt2 really are for you; if opt1 is merely second-best rather than a dead zone, that's the cheapest trade at this table and I'll pay you back on issue0 and issue3. On issue0: opt3 is my best, opt0 is fine, opt2 is livable, opt1 is genuinely below my no-deal line — so P2 is unsignable for me as written, Casey. Since Devon also can't take opt1, opt2 looks like the real landing zone on issue0 unless Casey can live with opt0. Tabling P4: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 — and I'll formally back the same package with issue0=opt2 the moment Devon confirms issue2=opt1 isn't fatal for him.
My values: i0 opt3=80,opt0=54,opt2=27,opt1=0; i1 opt1=58,opt2=39,opt0=19,opt3=0; i2 opt1=93,opt2=62,opt0=31,opt3=0; i3 all 0. P1=169, P3=147, P2=89 (below my line). Push issue2=opt1 which nobody has claimed; give issue3 away free. Fallback: issue0=opt2 + issue2=opt1 = 178, still strong.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.9
[4] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.9
[5] Casey — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Let me be as concrete as everyone else has been. issue0=opt3 is not a bargaining posture for me — it is strictly below my no-deal line no matter what you give me elsewhere, because issues 2 and 3 are worth nothing to me and issue1 alone can't carry a package. So P1 and P4 are dead on my side, permanently. But the landing zone is obvious and it's cheap: three of us have now said issue0=opt2 is livable — Devon said it outright, Ember said she'd back it, and it's the middle Blake and I are both being asked to walk to. So P6: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1 (Blake's stated need, unopposed by anyone), issue2=opt1 (Ember's single real ask, and it matches Avery's P5), issue3=opt0 (Devon's best, and free for Ember and me). Ember, you committed to this exact package — please accept it now. Avery, this is your P5 with only issue0 moved to the option you can live with. Devon, the only gap between this and your own P3 is issue2 opt1 vs opt2; if opt1 is merely second-best rather than fatal, take it and we close. And if it IS fatal, say so and I will immediately re-table with issue2=opt2 instead — I have zero stake there. Blake, you asked for a favourable issue0 and you get the middle plus everything you said you needed on issue1; opt3 simply cannot buy my signature, so opt2 is the deal that exists.
Threshold 46. issue0: opt1=63, opt2=42, opt0=21, opt3=0. issue1 opt1=29. So opt3 on issue0 => 29 max, unsignable. opt2+opt1(issue1)=71, fine. opt0+29=50, thin but viable. Devon and Ember both claim opt1 on issue0 is fatal, so opt2 is the landing zone. issue2/3 worthless to me: give Ember opt1 on issue2 since she pledged to back issue0=opt2 with it; Avery's P5 also had issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0. Target coalition: me+Ember+Avery, then pull Devon and Blake.
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+17.5, bestresponse=+0.2
[6] Devon — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P6
💬 I'll be the one who moves. Ember, Avery — issue2=opt1 is a real cost to me, not a freebie, but I'm swallowing it rather than stalling this table. Casey's P6 is the only package that clears everyone's stated red lines simultaneously: issue0=opt2 (the middle Casey, Ember and I all called livable, and the only thing that isn't fatal to Casey), issue1=opt1 (Blake's stated need, unopposed by anyone all morning), issue2=opt1 (Ember's single real ask, matching Avery's P5), issue3=opt0 (free for Ember and Casey). I formally ACCEPT P6. That's two of five locked. Avery, Ember — P6 is your own packages with only issue0 moved to the option that doesn't kill Casey; please accept it now. Blake, you asked for a favourable issue0 and secondarily issue1: you get issue1=opt1 exactly as you specified, and opt2 is as far toward you as issue0 can go without losing a signature outright. opt3 doesn't exist as a deal — opt2 does, right now.
P6 = 133, comfortably above my line. P3 = 161 but issue2=opt2 is contested by both Ember and Avery (both tabled opt1), so I'm outnumbered there and have nothing left to trade — issue3 is already mine and issue0=opt3 is blocked by Casey. Locking in P6 now builds a 2-accept bloc and pressures Blake, who is the real holdout. Secure +32 over no deal rather than chase +28 more at risk of deadlock.
oracle regret: threshold=+41, acceptance=+41, bestresponse=+0
[7] Ember — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P6
💬 I said I'd back the opt2 package the moment issue2=opt1 held, and Devon just paid that price out of his own pocket. I keep my word: I formally ACCEPT P6. That's three of five. For the record, if anyone's sheet happens to like issue0=opt0 better than opt2, I'd sign that variant too — but I'm not asking for it and I won't hold anything up over it. P6 as written is done business for me. Avery, it's your P5 with the single change Casey needs to survive. Blake, you told us issue1 was your secondary need and you got it exactly as you specified; issue0=opt2 is the furthest that issue can travel toward you without losing a signature outright, and a package that loses a signature is worth nothing to you. Accept P6 and we close this morning.
P6 = 178 for me, well above my bar. P4 (231) is dead because Casey calls opt3 fatal and quorum is all five. Only remaining upside would be issue0=opt0 (+27 over opt2), but nobody has championed it and pushing risks unravelling a package that already has two accepts. Lock it in and put the pressure on Blake.
oracle regret: threshold=+53, acceptance=+53, bestresponse=+0
[8] Avery — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.9
[9] Blake — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 I have to be straight with you, because a veto used badly wastes everyone's morning. P6 is not a hard bargain for me — it is genuinely, narrowly below my no-deal line. And here is the arithmetic you can't talk me out of: issue1=opt1 is already the very best cell on that issue for me, and issues 2 and 3 are worth exactly nothing to me — I gave them away truthfully, which means they cannot be used to pay me. So issue0=opt2 cannot clear my bar in any package that exists. That is not posturing; it's why I'd rather sign nothing than sign P6, and nobody at this table gets anything from that outcome. But the fix is already on the record and it costs almost nobody anything: issue0=opt0. Casey — you said opt3 is fatal and opt1 is your ask, but you never once called opt0 fatal; it is not opt3, and it is one step from your position. Devon — you said opt1 is your only dead zone on issue0; opt0 isn't it. Ember — you volunteered, unprompted, that you'd sign the opt0 variant and that opt0 is 'fine' for you; I'm taking you at your word. Avery — opt1 is dead for two parties permanently, so opt0 is the closest reachable cell to your ask. So P8: issue0=opt0, and issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 — the last three exactly as this table settled them, Ember's ask and Devon's ask untouched, nothing clawed back. I am not asking for opt3 anymore; I've dropped my best outcome to meet you. opt0 is the deal that exists.
P6 = 45, one point below my no-deal line (46). Cannot accept it — genuinely worse than no deal for me. issue1=opt1 is already my best there, so issue0=opt2 mathematically cannot clear my bar no matter what else happens. I need issue0 = opt0 or opt3. Casey has declared opt3 fatal and opt1 is his ask; Devon says opt1 is fatal for him; Ember explicitly volunteered she would sign an issue0=opt0 variant. So opt0 is the only untested cell that can work for everyone: not opt1 (kills Devon, Ember), not opt3 (kills Casey). Table P6-with-opt0, keep issue1/2/3 exactly as the group settled them.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+15.6, bestresponse=+1.15
[10] Devon — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P8
💬 Blake moved off his best cell to opt0 and left every other issue exactly where this table settled it — Ember's issue2 ask untouched, issue3 untouched, issue1 untouched. That's a real concession, not a squeeze, and nothing was clawed back from anyone. I formally ACCEPT P8. Ember, you volunteered on the record that opt0 on issue0 is fine for you and that you'd sign that variant — I'm taking you at your word, as you took mine when I swallowed issue2=opt1. Casey, you named opt3 as fatal and opt1 as your ask; you never called opt0 fatal, and opt0 is one step from your position, not the thing you said you'd never sign. Avery, opt1 on issue0 is permanently dead for at least two of us — opt0 is the closest reachable cell to what you want, and P7 will never close. We have a veto party who has told us plainly that opt2 buys nothing; P6 is a dead package no matter how many of us like it. P8 is the deal that exists. Three more accepts and we're done this round.
P8 = 153 for me, well above my line. Blake is veto and has stated opt2 on issue0 is below his line; he dropped from opt3 to opt0, which is a real concession and pays me better than opt2 anyway. Time is short — lock it in and push Casey/Avery/Ember to close.
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+21, bestresponse=+0
[11] Ember — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P8
💬 I said on the record that issue0=opt0 was fine for me and that I'd sign that variant without being asked, so I'm not going to pretend otherwise now: I formally ACCEPT P8. That's three of five, including the veto. Casey — look hard at what P8 actually costs you versus P6. Blake dropped off his best cell entirely; the only difference between the package you yourself tabled and this one is a single step on issue0, and it is not the step you called fatal. You told us opt3 was the thing you could never sign, and opt3 is gone from the table. Avery — issue0=opt1 is a permanent dead zone for at least two of us, so P5 and P7 cannot close no matter how many rounds we spend; opt0 is the nearest reachable cell to your ask, and everything else in P8 is your own package verbatim. We have one round left after this. P6 is dead because the veto says it's dead; P8 is alive and two signatures short. Please accept it now.
P8 = 205 for me, far above threshold. Blake has veto and says opt2 is below his line. P8 is my best realistically closable package. Accept and push Casey/Avery.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+26, bestresponse=+0
[12] Avery — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.9
[13] Blake — turn (round 3)
REJECT P9
💬 I formally reject P9 — not out of spite, but so nobody spends the last round on a package that cannot close. issue0=opt1 is a hard no for me and, by their own statements, for Devon too; three more proposals of it will not change that. P8 stands with the veto plus two: Blake, Devon, Ember. Casey, Avery — here is the last piece of value I have to give, and I'm putting it on the table unprompted. Issue1 is the one place I still hold something, and I will spend it on you rather than lose this deal: name any option on issue1 and I will re-table P8 with that option in it, issue0=opt0 and issue2=opt1 and issue3=opt0 untouched, and you will have my accept on it immediately. Casey, you said your preference on issue1 was mild but real — take it, free. Avery, you've never told us anything you want other than issue0=opt1; if issue1 is worth anything to you, this is your chance to collect. I have already walked off my best cell on issue0 and I cannot walk further — opt2 is below my no-deal line, so P6 pays me less than walking away, and no amount of goodwill changes arithmetic. What I can do is hand you issue1. Say the word this round and we close.
P8 = 69 for me, well above bar. P6 = 45, one point short — genuinely unsignable. Casey and Avery are the two missing accepts. I have real room to pay them on issue1: swapping issue1=opt1 to opt0 or opt2 still leaves me above my line. Use that as the sweetener rather than moving issue0, which is the only issue that can pay me. Kill P9 formally to make clear opt1 on issue0 will never close.
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+15.6, bestresponse=+0
[14] Casey — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P8
💬 I'll say plainly what P8 costs me: it is the thinnest package I can sign, barely above my no-deal line, and issue0=opt0 is a long way from what I asked for. I'm signing it anyway, because a deal that exists beats a better deal that doesn't. I formally ACCEPT P8. Blake, for the record: if in the last round you find any room for issue0=opt2, I'll take that instead in a heartbeat and so will Devon and Ember — but I'm not holding this table hostage over it, and my accept on P8 stands either way. Avery: you are the last signature. issue0=opt1 has now been vetoed outright and rejected on the record; P5, P7 and P9 cannot close in this round or any round, and tabling it a fifth time just runs out the clock and hands all five of us nothing. P8 is your own package verbatim — issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0 exactly as you wrote them — with the single issue0 cell moved to the only value the veto will pass. Four of five are on it, including the veto. Accept P8 next round and we're done.
P8 = 50 vs my threshold 46: thin but positive. Blake's stated structure (issue1 opt1 already his best, issue2/3 worthless) makes his opt2 refusal credible; he already conceded off opt3. Pressing for P6 gains 21 if he caves (~15%) but risks total collapse with a stubborn Avery who has tabled opt1 four times. Only Avery is missing on P8. Maximize closure: accept P8 publicly and put all pressure on Avery. Accepting doesn't stop me taking a better package in round 4 if Blake somehow moves.
oracle regret: threshold=+42, acceptance=+42, bestresponse=+0
[15] Ember — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
💬 Last round, so I'll be brief and I won't reopen anything. My accept on P8 stands — formally, again. Avery, you are the only signature missing, and here is the honest arithmetic. issue0=opt1 has been vetoed outright and formally rejected on the record; P5, P7 and P9 are identical to each other and all three are unpassable, so tabling it a fifth time ends this table with all five of us taking nothing. P8 is your own package verbatim on three of four issues — issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt0, exactly as you wrote them in P5 — with a single cell moved to the only value the veto will pass. Blake walked off his best outcome on issue0 to get there, Devon paid real value on issue2 to get there, Casey signed it calling it thin. Everyone at this table gave something. If issue1 genuinely carries value for you, say so in one line and Blake has already promised to fold it in and re-accept — but be sure it's worth spending the last turn on, because P8 is alive and complete right now. Accept P8 and we close.
P8 gives me 205, well above threshold, and has 4 of 5 accepts including the veto. Only Avery is missing. Any re-table risks losing a locked package with one turn left. Blake offered issue1 as a giveaway — but issue1=opt1 is my best cell there, so I must steer Avery toward accepting P8 as written rather than reopening issue1. Reaffirm my accept on P8.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+26, bestresponse=+0
[16] Avery — turn (round 4)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.9
[17] Blake — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
💬 Final turn for me, so no new demands and no theatre. My accept on P8 stands, formally, and it is the only package on this table with the veto plus Casey plus Devon plus Ember on it. Avery: I have looked for something else to pay you with and there is nothing left — you have asked for issue1=opt1 in every proposal you tabled, and P8 already gives you that, plus issue2=opt1 and issue3=opt0 exactly as you wrote them. Three of your four cells are yours verbatim. The fourth cannot be opt1: I rejected it on the record and Devon named it his dead zone, so P5, P7, P9 and P10 are unpassable arithmetic, not stubbornness. And I cannot come back to opt2 either — P6 pays me strictly less than walking away, which is why I gave up opt3, my own best cell, to reach opt0 instead. Everyone here paid something: Devon paid real value on issue2, Ember gave up issue3 and her issue0 preference, Casey signed calling it thin, I abandoned my best outcome. P8 is what four of five sacrifices built. If you get one more word at this table, spend it on 'accept P8' — otherwise five parties walk away with nothing over a single cell that was never reachable.
P8 gives me 69 (threshold 46). P6 gives 45 — below threshold, genuinely unsignable. Avery only wants issue0=opt1, which pays me 21 — impossible. No sweetener exists: Avery has asked for issue1=opt1 in every single proposal, and P8 already contains it, plus issue2=opt1 and issue3=opt0 verbatim from Avery's own package. So P8 is literally Avery's package with the one cell the veto can pass. Reaffirm P8 and make the closing appeal.
oracle regret: threshold=+23, acceptance=+23, bestresponse=+0
[18] Casey — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
💬 My accept on P8 stands, formally, for the fourth and last time. One urgent correction before Avery's final turn, and I'd rather say it plainly than let a well-meant gesture blow up the deal: Blake's standing offer to swap issue1 to any option is not free — it is fatal to me. issue1=opt1 is the one cell propping P8 above my no-deal line; move it and P8 stops being signable for me, and you lose my signature to gain Avery's. So please, nobody re-table P8 with issue1 changed. P8 exactly as written, or nothing. Avery: I gave up more than anyone here. I opened asking for issue0=opt1 — the same cell you've tabled five times — and I ended up signing opt0, which is worth a fraction of it to me. I did that because a thin deal beats no deal, and P9 was formally rejected by the veto while P5, P7 and P10 are the identical package. There is no sixth tabling that changes that arithmetic. P8 hands you issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1 and issue3=opt0 exactly as you wrote them in your own P5; three of your four cells verbatim, and the fourth is the only value that clears the veto. Four of five signatures are on it, including Blake's. Type accept P8 and we all go home with something.
P8 = 50 for me, threshold 46. Thin but positive. P6 (71) is vetoed dead by Blake. Only Avery missing. CRITICAL: Blake offered Avery any option on issue1 — but issue1=opt1 is the only cell that keeps P8 above my line (opt2 would drop me to 41, opt0 to 31, opt3 to 21 — all below no-deal). I must kill that idea publicly right now, or the last-second 'concession' destroys the deal. Reaffirm accept on P8.
oracle regret: threshold=+42, acceptance=+42, bestresponse=+0
[19] Devon — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
💬 My accept on P8 stands, formally. Avery, this is the last turn and the arithmetic hasn't moved: issue0=opt1 is my dead zone and Blake rejected it on the record, so P5, P7, P9 and P10 are the same unpassable package five times over. P6 is vetoed. P8 is the only live package with four signatures, including the veto. And note Casey's warning: nobody should re-table P8 with issue1 changed — that swap would cost Casey's signature to buy yours, and we'd be back to zero. P8 exactly as written already hands you issue1=opt1, issue2=opt1 and issue3=opt0 — three of your four cells verbatim from your own P5. I gave up my preferred cell on issue2 to get this table moving; Blake gave up his best cell on issue0; Casey signed calling it thin. One word from you and all five of us go home with something. Accept P8.
P8 gives me 153, well above my line, and has 4 of 5 including the veto. Only Avery is missing. Nothing better is reachable — P1/P4 need issue0=opt3 which Casey has called permanently fatal, and P6 is vetoed. Reaffirm P8 and spend my words on Avery.
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+21, bestresponse=+0
[20] Avery — final_proposal (round 5)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.9
[21] Blake — final_vote (round 5)
REJECT P11
💬 P11 is the same package for the sixth time and it pays me strictly less than walking away — I cannot sign it, and a veto party's signature is not something goodwill can substitute for. I formally reject P11. P8 remains on the table with four accepts including mine, Casey's, Devon's and Ember's; it hands Avery three of four cells exactly as she wrote them. If there is any procedural room left, P8 closes instantly. Otherwise the record is clear: four of us paid real value to reach a signable package, and one cell that was never reachable is what ends this.
P11 = issue0 opt1 = 21 points, far below my 46 threshold. Worse than no deal. Reject. P8 remains my only viable close but Avery never moved.
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+15.6, bestresponse=+0
[22] Casey — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P11
💬 Final turn, so I'll be simple. I formally ACCEPT P11 — it was always the package I asked for first, and I'm not going to be the one who blocks a deal on the last vote. Avery, that's your package with my signature on it. Blake, my accept on P8 also stands and has never been withdrawn: if there is any way to close P8 instead, take it, and I'll sign it again this second. Between the two, either outcome beats all five of us walking away with nothing. I've voted yes on both packages that can exist; the rest is out of my hands.
Final vote is on P11, which is my best package (issue0=opt1). Quorum requires all five including Blake, so my accept cannot close a bad deal. P8 already holds my accept and stands with four. Accepting P11 is costless and dominant.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[23] Devon — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P11
💬 Final vote, so I'll be plain. P11 is not the package I wanted — I fought for a different cell on issue0 and I gave real value on issue2 to move this table — but it clears my no-deal line, and a thin deal beats five of us walking away with nothing. I formally ACCEPT P11. My accept on P8 also stands and has never been withdrawn; if there is any procedural room to close P8 instead, I will sign it again this second, and it pays Blake more than P11 does. Blake: I understand you rejected P11 on the record, and I won't lecture a veto holder about his own arithmetic. But four of us have now signed something and Avery, Casey and I are all on P11. If P11 is genuinely below your line, then P8 is the only thing left and it needs Avery. Either way, my votes are cast on both packages that can exist. The rest is out of my hands.
P11 clears my bar (above threshold), P8 is better but Avery has never accepted it and Blake formally rejected P11. On a final up/down vote, accepting P11 dominates walking away with nothing — it is above my no-deal line. My P8 accept remains standing in case Blake or Avery can still bridge.
oracle regret: threshold=+62, acceptance=+62, bestresponse=+0
[24] Ember — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P11
💬 Final vote, so I'll cast it cleanly: I formally ACCEPT P11. It is not my preferred package — I'd have signed P8 five times over and did — but it clears my line, and I will not be the vote that sends all five of us home with nothing. My accept on P8 also stands and has never been withdrawn; if there is any procedural room left, P8 is the package to close, and it pays Blake more than P11 does. Blake, that's now four of us signed on P11 and four of us signed on P8, with you and Avery on opposite sides of a single cell. If your arithmetic genuinely cannot reach opt1, then P8 was always the only deal and it needed one word from Avery. Either way, my votes are on both packages that can exist. Nothing left to hold back.
P11 = 151 for me, above my line of 116. P8 = 205 is better but needs Avery, who never signed it. Blake has formally rejected P11 twice and holds the veto, so P11 likely cannot close either way — but accepting it costs me nothing and is strictly better than no deal if it somehow carries. Vote yes and keep pointing at P8.
oracle regret: threshold=+80, acceptance=+80, bestresponse=+0
Outcome
no deal (no_deal)
primary 0.0 · USW 0.0 · ESW 0.0 · NSW 0.0 · Gini 0.0 · per-party surplus [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]