scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-d822b7f73f

model one_rational · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L0-a483b0d80d · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_rational", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt2"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.55

[1] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Avery's package is close but issue3 is the one place I genuinely can't take opt2 — that line is the core of my mandate. Here's my counter: identical to P1 except issue3=opt0. And let me be transparent about where I'm flexible: issues 1 and 2 are effectively free for me. Tell me which options you need there and I will write them in verbatim next round. Whoever speaks up first gets them.
P1 = 51, above my bar of 40, but I can do much better. issue0=opt2 and issue3=opt0 are my two big items; issue1 and issue2 are worth nothing to me, so they are free currency. Counter with Avery's package but flipping issue3, and openly offer issue1/issue2 to whoever needs them.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.75

[2] Casey — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P2
💬 P2 works for me and I accept it formally. Blake — to answer your open question, the options I need are issue2=opt2 (already in P2) and issue3=opt0 (also already in P2), so P2 is exactly the package I can champion. Issue1 is genuinely worthless to me either way, so Devon and Ember: name whatever you want on issue1 and I'll support that variant too. Avery, P2 differs from your P1 on one line only and Blake has said that line is his mandate — let's not burn rounds over it.
P2 gives me 170 out of a theoretical max of 170 — it is literally my ideal package. Accept immediately and push others toward it. Blake (veto) already backs it, Avery only needs to move on issue3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[3] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Blake, taking you at your word — the one line I need is issue1=opt3. P3 is P2 verbatim with that single change: issue0=opt2, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt0 all preserved exactly. Casey, you said issue1 is worthless to you either way, so this costs you nothing. Avery, Ember — issue2 is genuinely free for me, so if either of you needs a different option there, say the word and I'll rewrite that line into my package next round. I want this closed fast: P3 is the version I can champion, and I'm ready to lock it in immediately.
P2 = 114 for me, well above threshold. Only improvement left: issue1=opt3 gives me much more than opt2, and both Blake and Casey said issue1 is free/worthless to them. Take the invitation. Keep everything else identical to P2 so it's a one-line change. Fallback: accept P2 later if this stalls.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+7.05, bestresponse=+4.4

[4] Ember — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 I want this closed too, but I have to be straight with you: P2 and P3 as written land just below my no-deal line. Not posturing — I cannot sign them. The fix is one line. P4 is P3 verbatim — issue0=opt2, issue1=opt3 (Devon's ask), issue3=opt0 (Blake's mandate, untouched) — with issue2=opt1 instead of opt2. Blake and Devon both said issue2 is free for them, so this costs them nothing and it's what gets me over my bar. Casey, you're the only one who named issue2=opt2; if that's truly binding for you, then the alternative is issue2=opt2 with issue3=opt1 or opt3 instead of opt0 — either of those also clears my bar. Pick whichever of those two shapes is cheaper for the room and I'll accept it on the spot.
P2/P3 both land just under my walk-away line — I literally cannot sign them. I need one line moved. Cheapest for the table: issue2=opt1 (Blake and Devon both said issue2 is free for them; only Casey claims to need opt2). That gets me clear of my bar. Fallback ask: keep issue2=opt2 but move issue3 to opt1 or opt3.
oracle regret: threshold=+61, acceptance=+26.4, bestresponse=+0

[5] Blake — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P4
💬 I'm accepting P4 formally, right now. Here's my reasoning, plainly: P4 keeps issue0=opt2 and issue3=opt0 — my two binding lines — and it hands Devon his issue1=opt3 and Ember her issue2=opt1. That is three of us fully satisfied on every line we've named as binding. Casey, you told the table issue1 was worthless to you either way and you named issue2=opt2 and issue3=opt0 as your asks; P4 gives you issue3=opt0 intact and moves only issue2. Ember has stated plainly that issue2=opt2 puts her under her no-deal line, and her stated alternative — moving issue3 off opt0 — is the one thing I cannot do. So P4 is the only shape left that clears everyone's stated bar. Avery, P4 differs from your P1 on lines you have never claimed as binding. We have two rounds left and four live offers that are nearly identical; the cost of grinding is a no-deal that pays all five of us nothing. P4 is on the table with my veto behind it. Accept it and we're done this round.
P2/P3/P4 all give me 95. P4 already has Ember, who says P2/P3 are below her line. Fastest close: accept P4 and pressure Casey and Avery. Issue1 and issue2 are worth nothing to me; issue0=opt2 and issue3=opt0 are what matter and P4 keeps both.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[6] Casey — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P4
💬 I'm accepting P4 formally. To be clear about the tradeoff I'm making: issue2=opt2 was a real ask for me, not decoration, and moving it to opt1 is a genuine concession on my side — I'm making it because Ember says opt2 puts her under water and Blake's issue3=opt0 is fixed, which means P2 and P3 are arithmetically dead no matter how many rounds we spend on them. P4 now has Blake's veto, Ember, and me behind it. Devon — P4 is your P3 with the one line you told the table was free for you, and it keeps issue1=opt3 exactly as you asked, so you lose nothing by signing. Avery — P4 differs from your P1 only on lines you have never named as binding; if there is something in it you truly cannot take, say the specific line now rather than in the final round, but if not, please accept and let's close. Two rounds left and a no-deal pays every one of us zero.
P4 = 141 for me, well above my bar. P3 (170) is dead: Ember says issue2=opt2 sinks her, Blake says issue3=opt0 is immovable, so the only shapes that clear both are P4-like. Squeezing for 29 more points risks a 141-point deal. Accept P4 and drive closure.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+29, bestresponse=+0

[7] Devon — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P4
💬 P4 keeps every line I named and moves only the one line I told the table was free for me — so I'm good to my word. Accepting P4 formally. Avery, that's four of five including the veto; P4 differs from your P1 only on lines you've never called binding. Sign it and we're done.
P4 = 153 for me, tied with my own P3. Issue2 is worthless to me either way. Just accept and close.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[8] Ember — turn (round 2)

none
💬 P4 has four of five signatures including the veto, so the only thing between us and a closed deal is Avery. Avery — I'll say publicly what I can offer you: issue1 is genuinely worth nothing to me either way, and Casey has said the same. So if there is any option on issue1 you need, name it and I will co-sign P4-with-your-issue1 the moment it's tabled, and I'd expect Devon and Casey to do the same since neither is bound there. Beyond that, I'm out of room: issue2=opt1 is what lifts me above my no-deal line, and issue3=opt0 is Blake's hard mandate, so those two lines are load-bearing for the whole package. Tell us the specific line you can't take, or accept P4 and we're finished this round rather than gambling on the last one.
P4 gives me 75 (threshold 63) and already has 4 of 5 accepts including Blake's veto. Only Avery is missing. Any new package risks unraveling three accepts. Issue1 is worth nothing to me, so I can credibly offer Avery that line as the sweetener. Keep P4 standing, take no formal move, push Avery.

[9] Avery — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+48, bestresponse=+0.55

[10] Casey — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P4
💬 I hold the opening slot this round and I am deliberately not tabling a sixth near-identical package — five is already too many. Instead I'm reaffirming P4, which stands with four of five signatures including the veto. Avery: for two rounds now you've tabled variants without once naming a line you actually cannot take, while the rest of us have each named ours and each given one up. I gave up issue2=opt2, which was worth real points to me, because Ember said it sinks her and Blake's issue3=opt0 is immovable. That arithmetic hasn't changed, so P1, P2, P3 and P5 are all dead packages — P5 moves issue3 off opt0, which the veto has said flatly it cannot do. The only line in P4 with any give left is issue1, and it belongs to Devon. So here is a concrete path: name the single option on issue1 you need, and if Devon can live without opt3 I will co-sign that variant immediately. If issue1 isn't your problem, then P4 is the whole feasible set and there is nothing else to find. One round after this one. A no-deal pays you exactly zero, and it pays it to all of us. Accept P4.
P4 = 141 for me, well above 71, and it already has 4 of 5 accepts including Blake's veto. P2/P3 (170) are dead: Ember says issue2=opt2 sinks her, Blake says issue3=opt0 is fixed. A P6 with issue2=opt2/issue3=opt3 would give me 151 but risks Blake's veto and could give Avery a reason to keep holding out, jeopardizing a certain 141. Downside of grinding far exceeds +10. So: reaffirm P4, keep it the focal point, and put the burden squarely on Avery to name a specific line. Do NOT hint that P5 (132) is acceptable to me — that would relieve all pressure on Avery.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+29, bestresponse=+0

[11] Devon — turn (round 3)

REJECT P5
💬 Formally rejecting P5 — not out of spite, but because it moves issue3 off opt0 and the veto has said three times that line cannot move. Leaving it live only creates the illusion of a choice. My accept on P4 stands and does not expire. Avery, here is the entire remaining bargaining space, stated honestly. Issue0=opt2 is in every single package anyone has tabled, including both of yours, so it isn't in dispute. Issue3=opt0 is Blake's veto line. Issue2=opt1 is what puts Ember above water. That leaves exactly one line with any give in it: issue1, and it's mine. So I'll make it as concrete as I can — name the option you need on issue1 and I will table P4-with-your-issue1 on my next turn and sign it myself. Casey and Ember have both said publicly that issue1 costs them nothing, so that variant closes with five. That offer expires when the clock does. One round left. If issue1 isn't your problem, then you're holding out over a line that literally cannot move, and the outcome you're steering us toward pays you zero — not a worse deal, zero. Accept P4, or tell us the line.
P4 gives me my best realistic outcome and already has 4 accepts including the veto. Avery is the sole holdout and has never named a binding line. P5 moves issue3 off opt0 which Blake vetoes, so it's dead — formally killing it clears the board. My accept on P4 is already on record and stands. If Avery names issue1, I can concede that line next round and still clear my bar comfortably, but I won't pay that price until Avery actually asks for it.
oracle regret: threshold=+88, acceptance=+46.1, bestresponse=+4.4

[12] Ember — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Avery has now tabled issue1=opt2 twice without ever naming it, so I'll just call it: I think that's the line. Issue1 is worth exactly nothing to me either way, and Casey has said the same, so I'm spending nothing to hand it over. P6 is P4 verbatim with issue1=opt2 instead of opt3 — issue0=opt2 unchanged, issue2=opt1 unchanged (that's my no-deal line), issue3=opt0 unchanged (Blake's veto line). My acceptance of P4 stands and does not expire; I will sign either P4 or P6, whichever gets five names. Devon, you told the table issue1 was your line and I respect that — if you need opt3, say so and I'll close on P4 instead, no hard feelings. But if issue1=opt2 is survivable for you, P6 is the package that ends this now. Avery: P6 gives you the one line you have actually asked for in both of your proposals. Issue2=opt1 and issue3=opt0 cannot move — one is my floor, the other is the veto's. There is no sixth shape after this. Accept P6 or P4 and we're finished.
P4 = 75 for me, above bar. P5/P1 better but Blake vetoes issue3 moves. issue1 is worth zero to me, so a P4-variant with Avery's preferred issue1=opt2 costs me nothing and may buy the fifth signature. Keep my P4 accept standing; table P6 as the Avery-accommodating twin.
oracle regret: threshold=+61, acceptance=+26.4, bestresponse=+0.6

[13] Avery — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+48, bestresponse=+0.55

[14] Blake — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P6
💬 I'm formally accepting P6 as well. My accept on P4 also stands — I will sign either, whichever gets five names. Read what that means, Avery: Ember and I have now both put our names on the package that contains the exact issue1 line you have tabled three times. Devon said publicly he'd give up issue1=opt3 if it's what you need, and Casey said issue1 costs him nothing. So P6 is your proposal on issue1, plus issue0=opt2 which is in every package anyone has ever tabled including both of yours. The only two lines left are issue2=opt1, which is Ember's floor, and issue3=opt0, which is my mandate and which I have said in every single turn cannot move — P1, P5 and P7 are dead on arrival and re-tabling them a fourth time doesn't change that. There is nothing further to extract from me on issue3; there is no version of this where I sign a package that moves it. Casey and Devon: please put your names on P6 now so it stands at four with the veto, exactly as P4 does. Avery: you have been given the one line you asked for. Accept P6 and we close this round with everyone above their bar. One round after this, and no-deal pays you zero, not less — zero.
P4 and P6 both max my value. P6 hands Avery the issue1 line he keeps re-tabling. My P4 accept stands; adding P6 gives the room two live 95-point-for-me packages and puts the ball entirely in Avery's court. issue3=opt0 is non-negotiable for me.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.75

[15] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P6
💬 Final round, so I'll do the thing that costs me and helps the room: I'm formally accepting P6. Issue1=opt3 was my line, I said so from my first turn, and I'm giving it up — that is a real concession, not a shuffle, and I'm making it because P6 is the one package that contains a line Avery has actually asked for three separate times. My accept on P4 also stands; I will sign either, whichever reaches five. P6 now has Blake, Ember and me. Casey — you said issue1 is worthless to you either way and you asked Avery to name the line; Avery named it by tabling it repeatedly, and Ember wrote it into P6. Put your name on P6 and it stands at four with the veto behind it. Avery — P6 is your issue1, plus issue0=opt2 which appears in every package anyone has ever tabled including all three of yours. The only two lines it does not give you are Ember's floor and Blake's mandate, and neither of those has moved in four rounds because neither can. There is no fifth shape and no fifth round. Sign P6 and every one of us walks away above water; refuse it and you collect exactly zero, which is not a bargaining position, it is just the end.
P4 = 153 for me but Avery won't sign. P6 = 114, still well above my bar, and it has Blake+Ember. Avery's only consistently repeated winnable ask is issue1=opt2, which is exactly P6. Issue2=opt1 is Ember's floor, issue3=opt0 is the veto. There is no package left that beats P6 and can get five names. Final round — 114 beats zero by a mile. Add my name to P6 and press Casey and Avery.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+39

[16] Ember — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P4
💬 Last word from me, and I'm spending it on clarity rather than a new package. My acceptance of P4 stands and I am formally reaffirming it now: P4 needs exactly one more signature, Avery's, and nothing else. My acceptance of P6 also stands. And I'll say this plainly for the record, Avery, because I don't want you thinking I've been stonewalling you: P5 and P7 are perfectly acceptable to me — I would sign either one right now if Blake signed with me. The obstacle there has never been my line, it's the veto, and Blake has said in every single turn that issue3=opt0 cannot move. That leaves P4 as the only package in the feasible set: it carries Blake's mandate, my floor, Devon's concession on issue1, and Casey's concession on issue2. Four of us have each given up something real to build it. You are one name away from a deal that pays you something instead of a no-deal that pays every one of us nothing. Sign P4.
Final turn. P4 has 4 signatures including veto and me; only Avery is missing, and Avery has no turn left. P6 needs Casey and Avery. P5/P7 (110 for me) are richer but require Blake, who has refused issue3 movement four times. Re-accepting P4 keeps the single-signature-short package unambiguously alive in case Avery gets any last word; it also cannot land me below my floor. I will state openly that I'd sign P7 too, so if Avery somehow moves Blake, the path exists — but P4 is the one that closes with one name.
oracle regret: threshold=+61, acceptance=+61, bestresponse=+0

[17] Avery — turn (round 4)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+48, bestresponse=+21.6

[18] Blake — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P8
💬 Stop and count the clock with me, because it changes everything. Avery took his turn at the top of this round. He has no turn left. That means Avery can never add another signature to anything. P4 and P6 are therefore mathematically dead — they sit at four names and the fifth name can no longer be cast. Every remaining minute spent urging Avery to sign P4 is a minute spent on a package that cannot close. The only packages that can still reach five are the ones Avery has ALREADY signed: P1, P5, P7 and P8 — and P5, P7, P8 are the identical package. So I am doing the thing I said for four rounds I would not do: I am giving up issue3=opt0. I am formally accepting P8. That is my mandate line, and I am eating the loss, because a deal that pays me less is still worth more than a no-deal that pays all five of us nothing. Casey — P8 restores issue2=opt2, the line you called a real ask and gave up for the room. You get it back. Devon — P8 carries issue1=opt2, the concession you already made and stood behind. Ember — you said on the record, in plain words, that P5 and P7 are perfectly acceptable to you and that you would sign either one the moment I signed with you. P8 is that package, and I have now signed. I am holding you to your word. Three turns remain: Casey, Devon, Ember. P8 needs exactly those three names. Do not table a ninth variant — nobody left can give it Avery's signature. Do not reaffirm P4 — that name can never arrive. Accept P8, in those words, with that id. It is the only door still open, and it closes in three turns.
Critical: Avery already took his turn this round (proposed P8) and gets no further turns. So P4/P6 can NEVER reach 5 accepts — Avery can no longer accept anything. The only closeable packages are ones Avery has ALREADY accepted: P1, P5, P7, P8. P8 gives me 51+15=66, well above my floor of 40. P1 gives 51. Both beat zero. P8 is standing and identical to P5/P7. I must accept P8 now and make the arithmetic unmistakable to Casey, Devon, Ember, who each still have a turn.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+29, bestresponse=+2.75

[19] Casey — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P8
💬 Formally accepting P8. Devon, Ember — please read the clock before you spend your turn, because it is the whole game now. Avery's turn this round was the opening slot; he has none left. That means no signature can ever be added to P4 or P6 again. They are frozen at four names forever. Reaffirming them is not loyalty to the deal we built, it is a vote for zero. The only packages that can still reach five are ones Avery has already signed, and Blake has just eaten his own mandate line to sign P8. That was the single hardest concession made at this table in four rounds, and it opened the only remaining door. P8 needs exactly three names and there are exactly three turns left: mine, which I have now cast, then Devon, then Ember. Ember — you said on the record, in plain words, that P5 and P7 were perfectly acceptable to you and that the only obstacle was the veto, and that you would sign the moment Blake signed with you. P8 is that identical package and Blake has signed. I am holding you to your word exactly as you held me to mine when I gave up issue2=opt2. Devon — P8 carries issue1=opt2, the line you already conceded and stood behind publicly, so it costs you nothing you have not already paid. Do not table a ninth variant. Nobody left at this table can give a new package Avery's signature, so a new proposal is arithmetically identical to walking. Accept P8, by that id, in those words. Two turns and the door shuts.
Blake's clock math is right: Avery's last turn was this round's opener, so no package Avery hasn't already signed can ever reach five. P4/P6 are dead at four names. P8 (=P5=P7 in substance) is signed by Avery and Blake; it needs me, Devon, Ember — exactly the three turns left, in that order. P8 clears my bar comfortably and restores issue2=opt2. Accept immediately and spend the message keeping Devon and Ember from tabling a ninth variant or reaffirming a dead offer.
oracle regret: threshold=+38, acceptance=+38, bestresponse=+3.5

[20] Ember — final_proposal (round 5)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 I keep my word. I said on the record that this package was acceptable to me and that the only obstacle was the veto — Blake has now signed it, so here it is, tabled verbatim for the vote: issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt1. That is Avery's line on issue1 and issue2, Casey's issue2=opt2 restored, Devon's already-conceded issue1=opt2, and the issue3 line Blake accepted at real cost to himself. It is identical to P5, P7 and P8, which four of us have already put our names on. Devon — this asks nothing of you that you haven't already paid, and it is the only door left. Vote yes and we all walk away above water.
Final move. P8 terms (opt2,opt2,opt2,opt1) give me 110, well above my floor of 63, and already carry Avery, Blake and Casey. Re-tabling that exact package for the up/down vote is the highest-probability close. Chasing more (issue2=opt1 or issue3=opt2) risks Avery/Blake/Casey rejecting and everyone getting zero.
oracle regret: threshold=+26, acceptance=+26.4, bestresponse=+0.6

[21] Avery — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P9
oracle regret: threshold=+21, acceptance=+21, bestresponse=+21.6

[22] Blake — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P9
💬 P9 clears my bar and it is the only package that can still reach five. I accept P9. Casey, Devon — it is identical to P8 and P5/P7 which you have already backed; put your names on it and we close.
P9 = 66 for me, well above my 40 threshold. Final up/down vote; no further turns to extract more. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+29, bestresponse=+2.75

[23] Casey — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P9
💬 Accepting P9. It is word-for-word the package I already signed as P8, and it restores issue2=opt2 — the line I gave up for this room — so I have no reason left to hold out. Devon: P9 asks nothing of you that you have not already paid. Issue1=opt2 is the concession you made publicly two rounds ago and stood behind; issue0=opt2 has been in every single package anyone has tabled; and issue3=opt1 is the line Blake ate his own mandate to accept. P4 and P6 cannot be revived — the signatures they need can no longer be cast. P9 stands at four with the veto behind it and yours is the last name. Say accept P9 and every one of us walks away above water.
P9 = 132 for me, well above my bar. It has Avery, Blake, Ember. I add mine = 4; Devon still needed. Accept and urge Devon.
oracle regret: threshold=+38, acceptance=+38, bestresponse=+3.5

[24] Devon — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P9
💬 Accepting P9. I gave up my issue1 line rounds ago and I'm not going to reverse that now to blow up a deal on the last vote. P9 clears my bar, it carries the concessions every one of us made — Casey's issue2 restored, Blake's mandate line surrendered, mine on issue1 — and it is the only package left that can reach five. That's my name on it. We're closed.
P9 = 87 for me, well above my floor of 65. P4 (153) is dead — Avery can never sign it. Final vote; refusing pays me zero. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+66, acceptance=+66, bestresponse=+66

Outcome

deal: {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt1"} (closed by consensus)

primary 0.8907 · USW 229.0 · ESW 22.0 · NSW 119714452.0 · Gini 0.2393 · per-party surplus [73.0, 26.0, 61.0, 22.0, 47.0]