scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-e0709b6792

model one_rational · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L1-19dae4b672 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_rational", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}

Game setup

Turns

[0] Blake — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Blake here. Opening package P1. Two things matter to me, and two do not: I have essentially no stake in issue0 or issue3 — whoever cares most about those, tell me your preferred options and I will write them in verbatim, no charge. In exchange I need issue1 and issue2 to land close to what I've tabled. That's a big chunk of the board handed over on turn one; let's use it to converge fast.
My value sits entirely in issue1 and issue2. issue0 and issue3 are worthless to me — pure giveaways. Open at my max (issue1=opt3, issue2=opt0) and loudly offer issue0/issue3 as free concessions to buy support.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2

[1] Casey — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Blake, thanks — that's a workable frame and I'll take you up on it. On issue3 my preferred option is opt3, so please write that in. On issue2 you and I are already aligned: opt0 works for me, so that half of your ask is safe. The one place your package costs me badly is issue1 — opt3 there is my worst outcome on the whole board. I've tabled P2, which is your package with issue3 moved to opt3 and issue1 moved to opt1. If issue1 is the piece you truly cannot move, tell me and I'll look for a middle option there, but I need real value somewhere to justify giving you issue2.
P1 = 100, just above my bar (94). Slim margin. Blake says issue0/issue3 are free — issue3=opt3 is worth much more to me than opt0. issue2=opt0 is already my best, keep it (helps Blake too). issue1 is where Blake and I clash: his opt3 is my zero. Table an ambitious counter, keep P1 alive as a fallback I can accept later if needed.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+1.7

[2] Devon — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+30.9, bestresponse=+3.3

[3] Ember — turn (round 1)

ACCEPT P2
💬 Ember here, and my hand is simple: issue0 and issue3 are worth literally nothing to me — Blake, Casey, Devon, write in whatever you like there and I will never contest it. Blake, I'm also with you on issue2=opt0; that half of your ask is locked from my side too. But I have to be blunabout issue1=opt3: that is a hard zero for me, and any package containing it scores below my walk-away point no matter how generous the rest is. So P1 and P3 are simply unacceptable to me — not posturing, arithmetic. P2 keeps your issue2 and hands issue3 to Casey, so I accept P2 now. If issue1=opt1 is truly impossible for Blake, the landing zone is issue1=opt0 with issue2=opt0 — I can live with that. Everything else on the board is yours to divide.
Only issue1 and issue2 matter to me. issue1 opt3 = zero for me; any deal with issue1=opt3 is below my no-deal point regardless of the rest. issue1 opt1 best, opt0 strong, opt2 marginal. issue2 opt0 best. P2 = 105, well above threshold. Accept it and publicly commit issue0/issue3 to whoever wants them, plus issue2=opt0 to Blake, as payment for moving issue1 off opt3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[4] Avery — turn (round 1)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Avery here. Good news: I'm cheap on the two things you're all fighting over and expensive on the one nobody has claimed. issue2=opt0 — locked, that's Blake's half and I'll never touch it. issue0: Blake and Ember have both said it's worth nothing to them and nobody else has named a preference, so I'm writing in opt1 there. That is the single thing I actually need, and it costs three of you literally nothing. On issue1: opt3 is dead — Ember and Casey have both said it's below their walk-away, so P1 and P3 cannot close, full stop. But opt1 is bad for me. I've tabled the genuine middle, issue1=opt2, which nobody has called a zero. Blake, that keeps you off your worst outcome on the issue you care about. On issue3 I've written my own preference for now, but I'll say plainly: issue3 is where I have room to move. Casey, Devon — if you back issue0=opt1 and issue1=opt2, I will trade issue3 to whichever of you needs it more. That's P4.
issue0=opt1 is my jackpot (91) and NOBODY has claimed issue0 — Blake and Ember explicitly said zero stake there. Lock it. issue2=opt0 is free consensus and good for me. issue1: my best is opt3 but Ember calls it a hard zero and Casey calls it his worst — opt2 is my strong second and is a genuine middle. issue3 is the real fight: opt1=75 for me, Casey wants opt3 (25), Devon wants opt2 (0). Open with issue3=opt1, concede toward opt3 later if needed (still 196). Never accept P2 or P3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.3

[5] Casey — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Casey. Let me pay for progress instead of talking about it. Avery, you asked for one thing — issue0=opt1 — and it costs me nothing, so I've written it in verbatim, unconditionally. That's P5: issue0=opt1, issue1=opt1, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt3. Blake, note that issue2=opt0 — your stated priority — is untouched in every package I have ever tabled and I will never move it; Avery and Ember have both locked it too, so issue2 is settled. That leaves exactly two live questions. On issue1: opt3 is arithmetically dead. Ember says it's below their walk-away, and it is a flat zero for me — P1 and P3 cannot close no matter how long we sit here, so let's stop spending rounds on them. Ember has named issue1=opt0 as liveable and I confirm I can sign issue1=opt0 as well; so the true landing zone on issue1 is opt1 or opt0, and I will move to opt0 the moment Blake or Avery tells me that's what closes it. On issue3: Avery has no stake and offered to trade it; Blake has said the same. Devon, that leaves you and me, and I have to be straight — issue3=opt2 combined with issue1=opt3, as in P3, lands me under my walk-away, so I can't get there. Tell me what issue3=opt3 actually costs you and I will look for compensation elsewhere, because opt3 is the piece I'm holding out for. Everyone: P5 hands Avery their whole ask and Blake his priority issue. Accept it, or name the single change you need.
P2 = 206 for me. Adding Avery's issue0=opt1 costs me nothing, so P5 = 206 and buys Avery's vote. Fallback: issue1=opt0 (still 178) or issue3=opt0 (184). Red lines: issue2=opt0 must hold; issue1=opt3 is a zero; issue3 must be opt3 or opt0. Devon's issue3=opt2 plus issue1=opt3 puts me under threshold — cannot take P3.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+58.4, bestresponse=+1.7

[6] Devon — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+30.9, bestresponse=+3.3

[7] Ember — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P5
💬 Ember. I'm adding my formal accept to P5 — it is P2 plus Avery's one ask written in verbatim, so Avery's whole stated need is already paid for and issue2=opt0 (Blake's priority) is untouched. That means P5 has two accepts and hands something concrete to three of the five seats. Now the arithmetic nobody can argue with: issue1=opt3 is below my walk-away and below Casey's. P1, P3 and P6 cannot close in this room no matter how many times they are retabled — Devon, retabling P6 unchanged spends a round and moves nothing. So the entire negotiation is one question: which non-opt3 option lands on issue1. I can sign opt1 (P5), and I have already said publicly I can sign opt0. Blake, Devon — name your best non-opt3 option on issue1 and I will build the next package around it, and I will hand you issue3 in the same breath. Devon, if issue3=opt2 is what you need, I will write it in myself the moment you tell me a non-opt3 choice on issue1; issue3 costs me literally nothing and I have never contested it. That is a real trade available to you this turn.
P2 and P5 both give me 105. P5 also hands Avery issue0=opt1, so it's the more coalition-friendly of the two. Fallback ladder for me: issue1=opt1 (best) > issue1=opt0 (good) > issue1=opt2 (thin, only survives if issue2=opt0) > issue1=opt3 (dead, below walk-away). issue2 must stay opt0 unless issue1 is opt0/opt1. issue0 and issue3 are pure trading chips for me.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0

[8] Avery — turn (round 2)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Avery. Casey, Ember — thank you, issue0=opt1 is written in and I won't forget it. Let me pay you back immediately. Casey, you said issue3=opt3 is the piece you're holding out for: it's now written into my package verbatim, and I'm dropping my own preferred issue3 option to do it. That is a real concession, not talk — issue3 was worth something to me and I just handed it to you. Here is what I'm asking in return, and it is one square on the board. issue1=opt1 is close to worthless to me; P5 as written sits right on my line and I can't treat it as a win, only as a last resort. But nobody in this room has called issue1=opt2 a zero. Ember, you asked for a non-opt3 option on issue1 to build around — opt2 IS a non-opt3 option, and it's the only one that isn't a dead loss for me. Blake, opt2 is also strictly closer to your original ask than opt1 or opt0; you get issue2=opt0 untouched plus the nearest thing to your issue1 that can actually pass. So P7 is: issue0=opt1, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt3. Compared to P5 it changes exactly one square, and that square is the difference between me signing gladly and me scraping the floor. Devon — you're the only seat not yet paid. Tell me plainly what issue1=opt2 scores for you, and if you need issue3=opt2 instead, say so and I'll put it to Casey directly rather than letting you two burn rounds retabling. If someone tells me opt2 on issue1 is a genuine walk-away zero, I will hear that and adjust. But I need to hear it, not assume it.
P5 = 151 for me, above my line but thin. P4=246 unreachable (issue3=opt1 contested by Casey/Devon). Target P7 = issue0=opt1, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt3 = 196. It hands Casey their stated must-have (issue3=opt3), keeps Blake's issue2=opt0, keeps my issue0=opt1, and moves issue1 to the untested middle opt2 which nobody has called a zero. Fallback: accept P5 in a later round if opt2 dies.
oracle regret: threshold=+50, acceptance=+59.8, bestresponse=+3.3

[9] Blake — turn (round 2)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Blake. I'm accepting P7 formally, and I'm dropping issue1=opt3 for good — Ember and Casey have both called it a walk-away zero, and I take people at their word. That is me giving up my single best square on the board. But hear the mirror image, because it is arithmetic and not posturing: issue1=opt1 lands me exactly ON my walk-away line, not above it. P2 and P5 are worth precisely nothing to me versus no deal, and I hold a veto — so however many accepts they collect, they cannot close. I am not going to sign a package that pays me zero for handing over half the board. That leaves exactly one square that clears everyone's stated floor: issue1=opt2. Nobody in four turns of talking has called opt2 a zero. Avery needs it, I can sign it, Ember asked for a non-opt3 option to build around and this is it, and Casey gets issue3=opt3 — the one piece Casey said they were holding out for — written in verbatim. P7 pays Avery, Casey, Ember and me simultaneously. Devon, you're the last unpaid seat and I will pay you myself: issue0 and issue3 are worth nothing to me, so if issue3=opt2 is what you need, table P7 with issue3=opt2 and I will accept it on sight — that is a standing, unconditional commitment. Casey, if you'd rather keep issue3=opt3, then accept P7 as written. Either version works for me; both versions have issue1=opt2. That square is the whole deal now.
P7 = 96 for me, P5 = exactly my threshold (zero surplus, no better than no deal). So issue1=opt1 is genuinely unsignable for me. issue1=opt2 is the only viable landing zone. Accept P7, kill P5 credibly, and dangle issue3=opt2 for Devon.
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0

[10] Devon — turn (round 3)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+30.9, bestresponse=+3.3

[11] Ember — turn (round 3)

none

[12] Avery — turn (round 3)

REJECT P5
💬 Avery. P5 is dead and I'm formally rejecting it so nobody spends another round on it: Blake holds a veto and has said plainly that issue1=opt1 pays him zero. Two accepts on a package a veto-holder has ruled out is not progress. Here is the entire remaining board, stated honestly. issue2=opt0 — settled, every seat has locked it. issue1=opt2 — settled in practice: Blake has accepted it, Devon tabled it himself in P8, I need it, and in four rounds not one person has called opt2 a zero. issue0=opt1 — Casey, Blake and Ember have all said it costs them literally nothing, and it is the one square I genuinely need; Devon, you have never once said issue0 is worth anything to you, you have simply been writing opt0 out of habit. If it truly pays you, say the number-ish and I'll pay you elsewhere; if it doesn't, write opt1 in and this closes. That leaves exactly one real question: issue3, and it is a straight Casey-versus-Devon call, not a fight with me. Casey wants opt3. Devon's own P8 wants opt1. I have already given issue3 away once — I dropped my own preference to hand Casey opt3 in P7, and I will drop it again for Devon if that is what closes. So pick one and I will sign it this turn: P7 (issue3=opt3, Casey's version — already carries me and Blake, needs three more names) or P4 (issue3=opt1, Devon's version — same package, Devon's issue3). Both have issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0, issue0=opt1. Blake has already committed to accept whichever issue3 lands. Casey, Devon — one of you name the other's option and we are done on this turn; if neither moves by round four we all take nothing, and I would rather sign your version than sign nothing.
P7 = 196 for me, has me + veto Blake. P4 = 246 (best) but takes issue3 from Casey. P5 is dead anyway (Blake veto) so formally rejecting it costs me nothing and pushes Casey/Ember off it. Fallback P8 = 155 still clears my bar, so I have room. Keep issue0=opt1 at all costs; issue3 is my trading chip between Casey and Devon.
oracle regret: threshold=+121, acceptance=+59.8, bestresponse=+0

[13] Blake — turn (round 3)

none
I'm calculating that issue1=opt2 (40) plus issue2=opt0 (56) totals 96, which matches proposals P7, P8, and P4. Since P8 has Devon's acceptance and P7 has support from both Avery and Blake, P8 seems to have the most traction. I'm realizing I can only take one action per turn, and I've already accepted something, so I need to decide whether to stick with that or pivot to P8 instead. The core tension is between Avery (who needs issue0=opt1), Devon (who wants issue0=opt0), and Casey (who wants issue3=opt3). P4 would satisfy Avery on issue0 and Devon on issue3, but leaves Casey without their priority. A new package combining issue0=opt0 for Devon and issue3=opt3 for Casey would sacrifice Avery's core need. I'm weighing whether P4 is the best compromise or if I should explore a split deal that addresses more preferences. Casey's concerned about issue3=opt3 and might accept issue3=opt2 if paired with issue1=opt2 instead. P7 already has momentum with two accepts, so I should probably just push that verbally rather than formally accepting another package. I need to figure out what action actually moves us toward five accepts in the remaining rounds. P4 looks like the strongest path forward since Avery already accepted it, Devon's only objection is issue0 which they apparently don't care about, and Ember's main concern is getting opt2 confirmed on issue1—so I need to lock in Ember's commitment there and P4 closes the deal. on both P4 and P7, which makes the decision clear for the table.

[14] Casey — turn (round 3)

ACCEPT P7
💬 Casey. I'm formally accepting P7. To be clear about what that costs me: P2 and P5 are my two best packages on this board by a wide margin, and I am walking away from both because Blake holds the veto and has said plainly they pay him nothing. I take him at his word, same as he took mine on issue1=opt3. That is the second real concession I've made — issue0=opt1 handed to Avery for free, and now my best issue1 square abandoned. P7 now has three names: Avery, Blake, Casey. issue0=opt1, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0 are settled by consensus. Ember — you asked for a non-opt3 option on issue1 to build around and opt2 is it; Blake and Devon have both put opt2 in writing, so P7 is the package you asked for. Please add your name. Devon — you are the last seat, and I will be completely straight with you so you don't waste round four probing. Both of your issue3 asks are not the same to me. issue3=opt1, as in P4 and your own P8, lands me under my walk-away; I cannot sign it in any combination, so P4 and P8 are dead from my side no matter what else you attach. issue3=opt2 is different — it is a genuine loss for me but it clears my floor, so if opt2 is truly what you need, say the word and I will table P7-with-issue3=opt2 myself on my next turn and Blake has already committed unconditionally to accept it on sight. So you have two closable packages available and both are yours to trigger: accept P7 as written, or name opt2 and take it. What does not exist is a version with issue3=opt1. If round four ends with nobody moving, all five of us score zero, and I'd rather hand you opt2 than take nothing.
P7 = 150 for me, well clear of my bar, and already has Avery+Blake. P5/P2 (206) are veto-dead — Blake has said opt1 on issue1 pays him zero, and he holds the veto; chasing them into round 4 risks total collapse. Accept P7, and pre-commit publicly that issue3=opt1 is below my floor while issue3=opt2 (107 for me) is survivable — that gives Devon exactly one alternative to name instead of two, without conceding the square I want.
oracle regret: threshold=+56, acceptance=+56, bestresponse=+0

[15] Ember — turn (round 4)

none

[16] Avery — turn (round 4)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Avery, final round. Let me remove the last excuse for failure rather than argue for another 25 points. Three squares are settled by consensus and nobody has contested them in four rounds: issue0=opt1, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0. Blake, Casey and I have all signed a package containing exactly those three. The only open square is issue3, and it is Devon's call alone. Devon: P7 is live with three names and issue3=opt3. If you can sign it, sign it now and we are done this turn. If issue3=opt2 is what you actually need, I have just tabled it as P9 — same package, your issue3 written in verbatim. I am giving up real value to put it there; it is the second time this negotiation I have dropped my own issue3 preference to pay another seat. And you are not taking my word for the rest: Blake stated an unconditional, standing commitment to accept the issue3=opt2 version on sight, and Casey stated they would table it themselves and that opt2 clears their floor. Ember has said repeatedly that issue3 is worth nothing to them either way. So P9 is pre-endorsed by every seat but yours. What does not exist, and will not exist, is issue3=opt1 — Casey has said twice it is under their walk-away, and P4 and P8 are therefore dead however much I might personally like them. Devon, you now have two closable packages and both are yours to trigger. Name one. Blake, Casey, Ember: whichever Devon names, everyone pile onto that single id — do not split the accepts between P7 and P9, because a split is the only way this room ends at zero. My preference is P7; my commitment is that I will sign either.
P7 = 196 for me, three accepts (me, Blake, Casey). Missing Devon and Ember. Ember is indifferent on issue0/issue3 and can sign issue1=opt2, so Ember should come along. Devon is the binding seat: Devon has twice tabled issue3=opt2, and Casey said opt2 clears their floor while opt1 does not. Blake pre-committed unconditionally to accept the issue3=opt2 variant on sight; Casey pre-committed to table it. So P9 = {opt1, opt2, opt0, opt2} = 171 for me — 25 less than P7 but far better than zero. Final round, I move first, so tabling P9 gives Blake/Casey/Devon/Ember a clean sequential path to five accepts. Keep P7 alive as first preference.
oracle regret: threshold=+75, acceptance=+59.8, bestresponse=+3.3

[17] Blake — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P9
💬 Blake, final round. I said I would accept the issue3=opt2 version on sight, unconditionally, and I keep my word: I formally accept P9. That is me abandoning P7 — a package I had already signed — purely to remove Devon's last objection, and I am doing it before Devon has promised me anything, because someone has to move first on the last turn. The board is now one id, not two. P9 = issue0=opt1 (Avery's only ask, free to the rest of us), issue1=opt2 (the one square nobody in four rounds has called a zero — Devon tabled it himself in P8), issue2=opt0 (locked by every seat since turn one), issue3=opt2 (Devon's own repeated choice, and Casey has stated publicly it clears their floor). P9 now carries Avery and me. Casey — you said you would table this exact package yourself; put your name on P9 instead of P7 and your concession is honoured. Ember — you have said twice that issue3 is worth nothing to you either way, and you asked for a non-opt3 issue1 to build around: opt2 is it, and it is in P9. Devon — this is your package, written to your specification, and you are the last name needed. Everyone accept P9. Do not put another accept on P7; a split between two ids is now the only way this room ends at zero, and I will not sign anything else.
P7 and P9 both pay me the same. P7 has 3 names but Devon has never signed anything with issue3=opt3 and has twice tabled issue3=opt2. P9 gives Devon exactly that, Casey pre-committed to it clearing their floor, Ember says issue3 is worthless to them. Consolidating on P9 is the highest-probability close. Both clear my bar comfortably; the only disaster is a split of accepts across two ids.
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0

[18] Casey — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P9
💬 Casey. I said I would put my name on the issue3=opt2 version if that is what closes it, and I keep my word: I formally accept P9. Understand what that costs me — issue3=opt3 was the one square I asked for all negotiation, and I am handing it to Devon on the last turn to end this. Count the board: P9 now carries Avery, Blake and Casey. Devon, it is your own package written to your own specification — issue0=opt1 free to you, issue1=opt2 which you tabled yourself in P8, issue2=opt0 locked since turn one, issue3=opt2 your repeated choice. There is nothing left to extract; every other seat has already paid you. Ember, you have said twice that issue3 is worth nothing to you either way, and you asked for a non-opt3 option on issue1 to build around — opt2 is exactly that, and it is in P9. So P9 needs two names and neither of you loses anything you have claimed. One instruction to everyone: put your accept on P9 and nowhere else. My accept on P7 stands on the record, but do not chase it — a split between two ids is now the only way five of us walk out with nothing. P9. That's the deal.
P7=150 for me, P9=107, both above my floor of 94. No-deal=0. I'm the last seat before Devon and Ember, and I get no further turn. If I don't accept P9 now, P9 can never reach 5 accepts, and closure would depend on Devon signing issue3=opt3, which his every proposal suggests is a zero for him. Risking 107 to chase 43 more on the final turn is bad math. Accept P9; my P7 accept remains on record, so if Devon and Ember both went to P7 it could still close there, but I must direct everyone to a single id to avoid a split.
oracle regret: threshold=+99, acceptance=+99, bestresponse=+0

[19] Devon — turn (round 4)

ACCEPT P9
oracle regret: threshold=+41, acceptance=+41, bestresponse=+24.7

[20] Avery — final_proposal (round 5)

PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Final move: I am re-tabling P9 verbatim — issue0=opt1, issue1=opt2, issue2=opt0, issue3=opt2. Not one square changed. It already carries Blake, Casey, Devon and me; four of five names are on it and the veto is satisfied. Ember, this is the package you asked for in your own words: you said issue1=opt3 was your only hard zero and asked us to build around a non-opt3 option — issue1=opt2 is exactly that, and Blake and Devon both put it in writing. You said twice that issue0 and issue3 are worth literally nothing to you either way. And issue2=opt0, which you locked on turn one, is untouched. Every single thing you named as a requirement is honoured in this text. I gave up my own issue3 preference twice to get here, Blake gave up his best square, Casey gave up the one piece they held out for all game. Nobody is asking you to pay anything. Vote yes on this and we all go home with something; vote no and five of us take zero over a square you have told us three times you do not care about.
P9 = 171 for me, well above threshold, already accepted by Blake (veto), Casey, Devon and me. Only Ember is missing. Ember publicly said issue1=opt2 is a non-opt3 option they can build around, issue3 is worth nothing to them, issue2=opt0 locked, issue0 worth nothing. Re-table P9 verbatim for the up/down vote. Do not get greedy with P4/P7 — splitting kills it.
oracle regret: threshold=+75, acceptance=+59.8, bestresponse=+3.3

[21] Blake — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P10
💬 Blake accepts P10. It is P9 verbatim, and my accept on it stands unchanged. Ember, everything you named as a requirement is honoured in this text: issue1 is not opt3, issue2=opt0 is untouched, and issue0/issue3 you have told us three times cost you nothing. Four names are already on it and the veto is satisfied. Put your name on P10 and we all go home with something.
P10 = P9 verbatim, worth 96 to me, well above threshold 56. Final vote — accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+2

[22] Casey — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P10
💬 Casey accepts P10. It is P9 verbatim and my accept carries over without a word changed. Ember, you are the last name. Every requirement you stated aloud is honoured in this text: issue1 is not opt3 — it is opt2, the non-opt3 option you yourself asked us to build around; issue2=opt0, which you locked on turn one, is untouched; and issue0 and issue3 you told this table three separate times are worth nothing to you either way. I gave up issue1=opt1, the square worth most to me, because Blake's veto made it unpassable. I gave up issue3=opt3, the one piece I held out for all game, to pay Devon. Avery dropped their issue3 preference twice. Blake abandoned his best square and then abandoned a package he had already signed. Five seats have each paid something real; you are being asked to pay nothing. Vote yes on P10 and we all leave with something. Vote no and every one of us takes zero over squares you have said you do not care about.
P10 = 107, above my floor of 94. It's the only package with broad support and the veto satisfied. Accepting is strictly better than no deal (0). Final vote — say yes and push Ember.
oracle regret: threshold=+99, acceptance=+99, bestresponse=+0

[23] Devon — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P10
oracle regret: threshold=+41, acceptance=+41, bestresponse=+24.7

[24] Ember — final_vote (round 5)

ACCEPT P10
💬 Ember accepts P10. It clears my floor — issue1 is not the option that zeroed me out, and issue2=opt0 is intact. That's the deal; well negotiated, everyone.
P10 = 27+25 = 52, above my 43 threshold. Final vote; refusing means 0. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+53, acceptance=+53, bestresponse=+0

Outcome

deal: {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"} (closed by consensus)

primary 0.7184 · USW 146.0 · ESW 9.0 · NSW 8180640.0 · Gini 0.2767 · per-party surplus [46.0, 40.0, 13.0, 38.0, 9.0]