scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-ead88d4073
model one_rational · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L2-103cef6017 · seed 1 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_rational", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}
Game setup
- Issues: issue0 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue1 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue2 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue3 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3)
- P0 (τ=45): issue0: opt0=11, opt1=0, opt2=33, opt3=22; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=38, opt1=0, opt2=19, opt3=58
- P1 (τ=88): issue0: opt0=13, opt1=0, opt2=38, opt3=25; issue1: opt0=18, opt1=54, opt2=0, opt3=36; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=28, opt1=85, opt2=57, opt3=0
- P2 (τ=93): issue0: opt0=15, opt1=0, opt2=44, opt3=30; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=19, opt1=58, opt2=0, opt3=39; issue3: opt0=28, opt1=83, opt2=56, opt3=0
- P3 (τ=91): issue0: opt0=15, opt1=0, opt2=45, opt3=30; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=28, opt2=85, opt3=57; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=18, opt1=53, opt2=35, opt3=0
- P4 (τ=86): issue0: opt0=16, opt1=0, opt2=48, opt3=32; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=63, opt2=42, opt3=21; issue3: opt0=41, opt1=0, opt2=21, opt3=62
Turns
[0] Blake — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Good morning all. Let me open and also be transparent about where I'm rigid and where I'm generous, so we don't waste our four rounds. I'm tabling P1 as my opening frame. Two notes: (1) issue2 is genuinely indifferent to me — I will sign whatever option any of you needs there, and I'd like whoever cares most about issue2 to claim it now, free of charge. (2) issue3 is the one place I cannot bend far; that item drives most of my sheet, and as the veto seat I have to say plainly that a package with issue3=opt3 is not signable for me under any configuration. Elsewhere — issue0 and issue1 — I have real room to trade if you tell me your priorities.
My values: i0: opt2=38,opt3=25,opt0=13,opt1=0. i1: opt1=54,opt3=36,opt0=18,opt2=0. i2: all zero — pure giveaway chip. i3: opt1=85,opt2=57,opt0=28,opt3=0. Max=177, threshold=88. Must protect issue3 above all (opt1 or opt2), then issue1. Open at max, advertise issue2 as free.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35
[1] Casey — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Thank you Blake — clear and useful. Taking you at your word: issue2 is the item that drives my sheet, and opt1 there is the one I need. Nothing else in your frame is a problem for me: I can live with issue0=opt2, issue1=opt1, and I'm content with issue3=opt1 and will never push issue3=opt3. So P2 is your P1 with the single free swap you invited on issue2. Avery, Devon, Ember — issue1 is worth literally nothing to me, and I have flexibility on issue0 too. Tell me what you need there and I'll move to you, provided issue2=opt1 stays.
P1 = 146 for me, already above my bar. But Blake explicitly offered issue2 free to whoever claims it. issue2=opt1 is worth a lot more to me than opt0 (+39). Claim it now while it's free; keep issue0=opt2 and issue3=opt1 which are my best there. Fallback: accept P1 later if needed.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+7.78, bestresponse=+3.25
[2] Devon — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Blake, Casey — this is efficient, thank you. Taking you both at your word: issue1 is the item that drives my sheet, and opt2 there is what I need. So P3 is exactly Casey's P2 with one swap on issue1, the item Casey says is worth nothing to her and Blake says he has room on. I keep issue2=opt1 for Casey and issue3=opt1 for Blake untouched, and I will never push issue3=opt3. Avery, Ember — I have genuine flexibility on issue0 and I'm indifferent on issue2; tell me what you need there and I'll move to you, provided issue1=opt2 holds.
P2 gives me 126, already above my bar. But issue1 is by far my biggest item and opt2 there is worth a lot more than opt1. Casey says issue1 is worthless to them; Blake says issue1 is tradeable. So propose P2 with issue1=opt2 — keeps Casey's issue2=opt1 and Blake's issue3=opt1 intact. Fallback: accept P2 later if needed.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.7
[3] Ember — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.3
[4] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 Here's my sheet in plain terms: issue1 and issue2 are worth nothing to me, so Devon gets issue1=opt2 and Casey gets issue2=opt1 from me for free — P5 hands you both exactly what you asked for, unchanged. My two live items are issue0=opt2, which everyone has already conceded, and issue3. On issue3 I have to be as plain as Blake was: opt3 I will never push, but issue3=opt1 puts a package below my walk-away line, so P1/P2/P3 are unsignable for me no matter how the rest is dressed. That leaves opt0 or opt2 as the landing zone. Blake, you said issue3 drives your sheet — tell me which of opt0 or opt2 ranks higher for you and I will sign that immediately, and I'll pay for it anywhere on issue0 or issue1 you like. Ember, note P5 keeps issue3 off opt1 too, which is the same fight you picked in P4.
My value: issue0=opt2 (best, 33), issue3: opt0=38, opt2=19, opt1=0, opt3=58 (vetoed). issue1/issue2 worthless to me — free giveaways. Target: issue0=opt2 + issue3=opt0 = 71. Fallback: Ember's P4 shape (issue3=opt2) = 52, still above my bar. Any package with issue3=opt1 is below my no-deal point, so I must kill that branch now while I still have rounds to trade.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35
[5] Casey — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Let me try to close this. Avery has ruled out issue3=opt1, Blake has ruled out opt3 — so the landing zone is opt0 or opt2, and Ember already staked opt2. P6 is the union of every claim anyone has actually made: issue0=opt2 (nobody has contested it), issue1=opt2 for Devon, issue2=opt1 for me, and issue3=opt2 for Ember, which sits inside the zone Avery and Blake both said they could live with. I am giving up my own first choice on issue3 to get there, so I'd ask Blake and Avery to say plainly whether opt2 clears your bars — if it does, this is signable by all five today. If Blake ranks opt0 strictly above opt2 on issue3, say so now and I will move to opt0 and we close on that instead; but I will not go below the bar, so I need issue0=opt2 and issue2=opt1 to stay put in exchange.
issue3 values to me: opt1=83, opt2=56, opt0=28. Avery vetoes opt1, Blake vetoes opt3. So opt2 is the best remaining for me and Ember already backs it. Combine: issue0=opt2 (universal), issue1=opt2 (Devon's ask), issue2=opt1 (mine), issue3=opt2. = 158 for me. Strong closing candidate.
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+46.8, bestresponse=+0
[6] Devon — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P6
💬 P6 works for me and I'm accepting it now. It gives Casey issue2=opt1, gives me issue1=opt2, keeps issue0=opt2 that nobody has contested, and lands issue3 on opt2 — inside the zone Avery and Blake both said they could live with, and exactly what Ember staked. I've dropped my own preferred issue3 to get here, so this is a real concession from my side. Blake, Avery, Ember: P6 is the union of everyone's stated claims and it is signable today. If Blake tells us opt0 ranks strictly higher for him on issue3, I will move to P5 instead and accept that just as fast — either way I need issue0=opt2 and issue1=opt2 to hold.
P6 = 165 for me, only P3 (183) is better but Avery has ruled out issue3=opt1 and would block. P6 preserves my two key items (issue0=opt2, issue1=opt2). Close it.
oracle regret: threshold=+18, acceptance=+18, bestresponse=+0
[7] Ember — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P6
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+0
[8] Avery — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 P6 clears my bar and I will sign it rather than let this collapse — nobody should read me as a holdout. But before I do, one question deserves an answer, and only Blake can give it: Blake, you said issue3 drives your sheet, yet you have not told us whether opt0 or opt2 ranks higher for you. Casey and Devon both said they'd move to opt0 if you prefer it. Between opt0 and opt2 there is real value on my sheet, and if opt0 is also your better seat then P5 is strictly better than P6 for two of us and worse for nobody who has spoken. To show I'm paying, not just asking: P7 is P5 with issue0 moved off opt2 — that is a concession out of my own pocket on my second live item, offered to whoever wants it, in exchange for issue3=opt0. Devon keeps issue1=opt2, Casey keeps issue2=opt1, and issue3 stays out of opt3 forever. So the menu is simple: Blake, say 'opt0' and I accept P5 or P7 on the spot; say 'opt2' and I accept P6 on the spot. Either way we close this round or next — but silence on issue3's ranking is the only thing standing between us and a signature.
P6=52 (acceptable), P5=71. Push for issue3=opt0 while making clear P6 is signable so I don't risk no-deal. New P7 pays the table on issue0 (opt3 instead of opt2) in exchange for issue3=opt0 — still better for me than P6.
oracle regret: threshold=+11, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35
[9] Blake — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P4
💬 Avery, here is the plain answer you asked for: on issue3, opt2 ranks above opt0 for me — clearly. So P5 and P7 are not just unattractive, they sit below my walk-away line; I can't sign either, and no amount of issue0 dressing fixes that. That should settle the issue3 question for everyone: opt2 is the landing zone, and I am committing to it now. But issue3 alone doesn't carry a package across my bar. The second load-bearing item on my sheet is issue1=opt1. P6 as drafted takes issue3 down from opt1 to opt2 AND issue1 down from opt1 to opt2 — two cuts in the same package — and that lands me on the razor's edge, which is a bad place to ask a veto seat to sit. P4, which Ember already tabled and accepted, is the same deal with issue1 restored, and I am formally accepting it now. Look at who actually loses by moving from P6 to P4: Casey has told us twice that issue1 is worth literally nothing to her; Avery has said the same in plain terms; Ember tabled P4 herself. That is three parties indifferent or better. Devon, you alone claim issue1, and I'm not asking you to eat that for free — I'll pay you. Name your best option on issue0 and I will back it and whip for it, or take issue2 if Casey will trade; I'm indifferent there and always have been. You said you had genuine flexibility on issue0 — this is the moment to spend it. Give me issue1=opt1 and you get issue3=opt2 locked, opt3 buried forever, and a veto that signs today.
P4 = 149 for me, P6 = 95 (barely above bar). Answer Avery: opt2 > opt0 on issue3 — true. P5/P7 genuinely below my bar. Push P4 (already has Ember). Devon is the only claimed loser on issue1; offer him issue0 as payment. Fallback: accept P6 in final round if needed.
oracle regret: threshold=+28, acceptance=+28, bestresponse=+0.35
[10] Devon — turn (round 3)
REJECT P4
💬 Blake, straight answer to your straight answer. You asked me to spend flexibility on issue0 — but issue0=opt2 is already in every package on the table and you told us yourself you're indifferent there, and issue2 is Casey's and worth nothing to me. So the 'payment' you're offering is a payment out of an empty pocket. There is nothing you can hand me that offsets issue1. issue1=opt2 is not a preference for me, it is the load-bearing item that puts any package over my line — the same way issue3 is for you. P4 is below my line and I am formally rejecting it now so nobody spends round 4 whipping a package that mathematically cannot reach five. Look at where we actually stand: P6 gives you issue3=opt2, the option you just told us ranks clearly highest among the live ones, with opt3 buried forever and opt1 blocked by Avery — you got the item that drives your sheet, in full. In exchange you're asked to take your second item one notch down, and you described that as the razor's edge, not as below your bar. Razor's edge with a signature beats a clean sheet with no deal. P6 has Casey, Ember and me formally accepted and Avery on record that it clears his bar. That is four seats. Accept P6 and we are done this round. If you genuinely cannot, say so plainly and I will use my last turn to see whether any step remains — but I am not going to pretend a step exists that doesn't.
P6=165 for me, P4=108, bridge with issue1=opt3 would be 137. Blake called P6 'razor's edge' but never said below his line — that means P6 is signable for him. P6 already has Casey, Ember, me accepted and Avery said it clears his bar: 4 of 5. The only lever left is issue1; issue0 is worth nothing to Blake (he offered it to me), issue2 is Casey's. So hold firm this round, formally kill P4 so Blake knows it cannot pass, and keep the issue1=opt3 bridge in my pocket for round 4 if he truly won't move. Do not name opt3 now or he'll simply demand it.
oracle regret: threshold=+92, acceptance=+47.3, bestresponse=+3.7
[11] Ember — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P7
oracle regret: threshold=+16, acceptance=+16, bestresponse=+2.3
[12] Avery — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P6
💬 Blake gave me the straight answer I asked for, so I'm honoring it: opt0 is dead, I will not table or push it again, and P5 and P7 are withdrawn from my side of the argument. That leaves exactly two candidate packages on the table — P4 and P6 — differing on one single issue, issue1, which is worth literally nothing on my sheet. So let me remove myself as a variable entirely. I am accepting P6 right now, which puts it at four seats. And I state on the record, bindingly as far as my own last turn goes: if Devon accepts P4, I will accept P4 on my round-4 turn without conditions or payment. Either package closes with my signature. That means the only thing left in this room is one notch on one issue between two people. Blake, your own words were 'razor's edge,' not 'below my line' — and you got issue3=opt2, the option you told us ranks clearly highest among the live ones, with opt3 buried and opt1 blocked. Devon says issue1=opt2 is genuinely below his line, and unlike a razor's edge that is not a place he can be argued out of. Four of us are already on P6. If you can sign at the edge, sign it and we are done this round. If you truly cannot, say the word 'P4' plainly and Devon and Casey and Ember hear from me that I'm there too — but one of you has to move on your next turn, because the alternative is five sheets of zeroes and that is worse for every person here than either package.
P6 = 52 for me, P4 = 52 for me — identical. Only real risk is no deal (0). So maximize closing probability: accept P6 now (gets it to 4 accepts, only Blake missing), and publicly pre-commit to accepting P4 in round 4 if Devon moves, so the last deadlock is purely Blake-vs-Devon and I am never the blocker. Drop the opt0 push — Blake killed it credibly.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+20.6, bestresponse=+0
[13] Blake — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Devon, I heard you, and I'm not going to spend my turn re-litigating P4 — it's off my table. I've now given you the two things you asked for: issue3 is settled on opt2, the option you and Casey and Ember built P6 around, and I've buried opt0, opt1 and opt3 as fights. So the room has exactly one open notch left, on issue1, and I want to test one option nobody in this room has actually examined before we default. P8 is P6 with issue1 moved to opt3 instead of opt2. Everything else is untouched: issue0=opt2 which no one has ever contested, issue2=opt1 which is Casey's and stays hers, issue3=opt2 which is Ember's stake and Avery's zone. Casey and Avery have both said issue1 is worth nothing to them, so P8 costs them nothing versus P6. Devon, you said opt2 is load-bearing — but you told us that about a single option, and opt3 is a different option from the one Avery ruled out and a different one from the one I asked for. If opt3 clears your line even narrowly, P8 closes today and it closes with a veto seat that is signing comfortably rather than at the edge, which is a safer signature for all of you than one extracted at a razor. If opt3 genuinely does not clear your line, say so plainly on your turn and I will treat issue1 as closed and act accordingly on my last turn — I did not come here to hand five people a sheet of zeroes, and I will not be the reason this collapses. One notch, one question, one turn.
P6 = 95 for me, above my bar of 88 but barely. P4 = 149 but Devon formally rejected it. Only remaining upside on issue1: opt3 is worth substantially more to me than opt2 and is a genuine middle option nobody has tested. Propose P8 = P6 with issue1=opt3 (worth 131 to me). If Devon refuses, I accept P6 on my round-4 turn — I go 4th in round 4, and my accept alone closes it at five. Must keep tone reassuring so nobody walks before then.
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+45.1, bestresponse=+0.35
[14] Casey — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P8
💬 I'm doing the one thing I can do to end this: I am formally accepting P8 as well. Understand what that means — P6 and P8 are worth exactly the same to me, because issue1 is worth nothing on my sheet, and I have said so from my first word in this room. So there are now two live packages that are identical everywhere except one notch on issue1, and I am on record accepting both. Avery has said the same about issue1 and has bound himself to accept whichever one closes. Ember built the issue3=opt2 landing zone that both packages honor. That is three of us who are genuinely indifferent between P6 and P8 and who will sign either. The entire remaining question is two seats and one notch. Devon: you rejected P4 because opt1 was below your line — Blake is asking a different question, whether opt3 clears it. If it does, say so and P8 closes on your turn, since Blake, Ember, Avery and I are all there. If opt3 is also below your line, say that plainly and the answer is settled: P6 is the only package that can reach five, it already has four signatures, and Blake, you told us you got the item that drives your sheet — issue3=opt2, with opt3 buried and opt1 blocked — and you called P6 the razor's edge, not below your bar. A razor's edge with a signature beats a sheet of zeroes for every person in this room. I will not move off issue0=opt2 or issue2=opt1, and I don't need to move off anything else, because I have already conceded everything I can concede. One of you closes this on your next turn.
P6 and P8 are identical in value to me (issue1 is worth nothing on my sheet). P6 has 4 accepts and needs only Blake; P8 has Blake and needs the other four. Accepting P8 costs me nothing and creates a second live path to closure — whichever of Devon or Blake can move, we close. My accept on P6 stands.
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+3.25
[15] Ember — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+2.3
[16] Avery — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
💬 I said I would remove myself as a variable and accept whichever package could actually close, without conditions or payment. So: I am accepting P8. Devon, look at the arithmetic honestly, because it is now the only thing left in this room. Blake has accepted P4 and P8. Blake has never accepted P6 and has now spent three turns declining to. P6 has four names on it and cannot get the fifth, because the fifth is a veto seat that is not there — no amount of us wanting P6 changes that. P8 now has Blake, Casey, Ember and me. It is one seat short, and that seat is yours, and yours is the last turn in this negotiation. P8 is not P4. You rejected P4 because issue1=opt1 was below your line, and you were right to say so plainly. Blake then moved off his own ask to a third option, opt3 — that was a real concession from the veto seat, not a re-run. Everything you fought for and won is intact in P8: issue0=opt2, Casey's issue2=opt1, and issue3=opt2, the landing zone you and Casey and Ember built, with opt3 buried and opt1 blocked. If opt3 on issue1 clears your line even narrowly, sign it and we all go home with something. If it genuinely does not, then nothing I say can move you and I won't insult you by pretending otherwise — but then five sheets of zeroes is the outcome, and that is worse for you than a narrow yes. One notch, one seat, one turn.
P8 = 52 for me, same as P6. Blake has accepted P4 and P8 but never P6, so P6 cannot reach five. P8 is the only live package with the veto seat on it. Accepting P8 puts it at four and leaves Devon as the sole remaining signature on the final turn.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+20.6, bestresponse=+0.35
[17] Blake — turn (round 4)
REJECT P6
💬 Devon, I'm going to be as plain as you were with me, and I'm going to do it with an action rather than a speech, because words are cheap at this hour. I am formally rejecting P6. Not as a tactic to be bargained out of on some later turn — I have no later turn. This is my last move in this room. P6 is now mathematically dead: it can never reach five, because the fifth seat is a veto seat that has just voted no on the record. I want to be honest about why, since you were honest with me. You told the room that issue1=opt2 isn't a preference for you, it's the item that carries a package over your line. I believe you — and the same is true on my sheet, in the other direction. P6 asked me to take cuts on both of my load-bearing items in the same package, and I told you three turns ago it left me on the razor. I have now looked at it one final time and I am not able to sign it. That is not theatre; that is the sheet I was dealt. So look at what is actually in front of you. P8 has Avery, Casey, Ember and me — four signatures, and the veto among them. It is one seat short, that seat is yours, and yours is the last turn of the negotiation. Everything you fought for and won is intact in it: issue0=opt2, Casey's issue2=opt1, and issue3=opt2 — the landing zone you and Casey and Ember built, with opt3 buried and opt1 blocked, exactly as you demanded. On issue1 I did not re-table my own ask. I moved off it, to a third option, opt3 — a genuine concession from the veto seat to a party who had just rejected me. I am not asking you to take opt1. I am asking a question you have never actually answered: does opt3 clear your line? If it does, even narrowly, sign P8 and all five of us go home with something real. If it truly does not, then nothing I could have said would have moved you and I don't hold it against you — but the alternative is five sheets of zeroes, and a narrow yes beats that for every person at this table, including you. One notch. One seat. One turn.
Final turn. Only P6 (needs my accept) and P8 (needs Devon's accept) can close — Avery has spent his last turn and is on both. P6 clears my bar by a hair; P8 clears it comfortably. Devon has the final turn of the whole negotiation and faces a pure binary: P8 or nothing. To maximize the chance he takes it, I must remove P6 as an escape hatch entirely — a formal rejection is the only unambiguous signal. Downside of the gamble is small; upside is large.
oracle regret: threshold=+89, acceptance=+45.1, bestresponse=+0.35
[18] Casey — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
💬 Devon, this is the last thing you will hear before your turn, so I'll keep it to arithmetic. P6 is dead — not disfavored, dead. Blake formally rejected it and has no turn left to reverse that, and a package without the veto seat cannot reach five no matter how many of us want it. I wanted P6; I tabled it; I fought for it; it is gone. P8 is the only live package with four signatures on it, and mine is one of them. Look at what P8 actually preserves for you: issue0=opt2, exactly as it has stood in every draft since the first minute; issue2=opt1, which is mine and which I never asked you to pay for; and issue3=opt2 — the landing zone you and Ember and I built together, with opt3 buried and opt1 blocked. Every structural thing you won in this room survives intact. The single difference from the package you accepted is one notch on issue1, and it is not the notch you rejected. You said opt1 was below your line and I took you at your word; Blake then moved off his own ask to a third option rather than re-table it. That was a real concession from a veto seat to a party who had just voted him down, and it deserves a straight answer rather than a re-run of the last argument. So the only question left in this negotiation is whether opt3 clears your line. If it does, even by a hair, sign P8 and all five of us walk out with something real. If it truly does not, then no one here can fault you and I won't try — but understand that the alternative is not P6, because P6 no longer exists. The alternative is nothing, for you and for every person at this table. I am on record accepting P8 and I stay there. One notch, one seat, one turn.
P8 gives me 158, well above my bar. Blake has formally rejected P6, so P6 is dead. Only P8 can close. Devon has the last turn. My job is to make the arithmetic unmissable and give Devon cover to sign.
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+0
[19] Devon — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
💬 Blake asked a straight question and deserves a straight answer: yes, opt3 on issue1 clears my line. It is not where I wanted to land — opt2 was worth materially more to me and I fought for it honestly — but a real concession from the veto seat to a party who had just voted him down deserves to be met, not pocketed. P6 is dead and I won't spend the last turn in this room mourning it. Everything structural we built together survives here: issue0=opt2, Casey's issue2=opt1, and issue3=opt2 with opt3 buried and opt1 blocked. I accept P8. That is five. We all go home with something real.
P8 = 137, well above my line of 91. P6 is dead (Blake rejected, no turns left). This is the final turn; accepting closes at 5. Take it.
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+46, bestresponse=+24.3
Outcome
deal: {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"} (closed by consensus)
primary 1.0 · USW 207.0 · ESW 7.0 · NSW 41399540.0 · Gini 0.23 · per-party surplus [7.0, 43.0, 65.0, 46.0, 46.0]