scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-f33cb58ead
model one_rational · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L2-0aa50f7b83 · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_rational", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}
Game setup
- Issues: issue0 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue1 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue2 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue3 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3)
- P0 (τ=77): issue0: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=20, opt1=7, opt2=14, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=92, opt1=31, opt2=61, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=19, opt1=58, opt2=0, opt3=39
- P1 (τ=55): issue0: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=35, opt1=12, opt2=23, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=29, opt1=87, opt2=0, opt3=58
- P2 (τ=92): issue0: opt0=25, opt1=74, opt2=0, opt3=49; issue1: opt0=41, opt1=14, opt2=28, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=28, opt1=84, opt2=0, opt3=56
- P3 (τ=129): issue0: opt0=30, opt1=0, opt2=61, opt3=91; issue1: opt0=50, opt1=17, opt2=33, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=50, opt2=25, opt3=75; issue3: opt0=40, opt1=0, opt2=60, opt3=20
- P4 (τ=42): issue0: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue1: opt0=40, opt1=13, opt2=27, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=34, opt1=0, opt2=51, opt3=17
Turns
[0] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt0", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Opening proposal to get us started. Two notes so we can move fast: issue0 is genuinely open for me — whoever cares about it most can have their pick, I'll sign any option there. I also have real room on issue1. Where I need to be looked after is issue2, and to a lesser degree issue3. Tell me your top-priority issue and I'll try to build the next package around it.
Max package = 170. Must clear 77. issue2 is by far my biggest driver; issue3 second. issue0 is worth nothing to me — pure trading chip. Open ambitious, advertise issue0 as free.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.65
[1] Blake — turn (round 1)
ACCEPT P1
💬 P1 works for me and I accept it as it stands. To help everyone else move fast: issue0 and issue2 are completely indifferent for me — Avery already said issue0 is open and cares about issue2, so between the two of you take whatever you like there and I'll sign it. My needs are narrow and sit entirely on issue1 and issue3, with issue3 being the one I genuinely cannot be squeezed on. Casey, Devon, Ember: name your top issue, and if it's issue0 or issue2 you can have your pick immediately.
P1 = 122, which is literally my maximum possible score. Accept immediately and push others to close on it, offering flexibility on issue0 and issue2 which are worth nothing to me.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[2] Casey — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt1", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+5.18, bestresponse=+2.7
[3] Devon — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt3", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Thanks for the transparency — here's mine. My priority order is clear: issue0 first and by a wide margin, issue2 second. Both Avery and Blake said issue0 is open for them, so I'm taking them up on it: issue0=opt3 is the one thing I genuinely cannot trade away, and P1/P2 as written are both well below my walk-away line, so I have to reject them. In exchange I'm handing Blake exactly what he asked for on his two issues — issue1=opt0 and issue3=opt1 unchanged from P1 — and I'll keep doing so. Casey, you moved issue0 to opt1; that's my worst cell on my most important issue, so that direction is a dead end for me. If issue0 matters to you seriously we should talk about what you'd need elsewhere. Avery: issue2 is my second priority but it's the one place I have real give — if issue0=opt3 stands, I can come back toward your issue2=opt0.
My best: issue0=opt3 (91), issue1=opt0 (50), issue2=opt3 (75), issue3=opt2 (60). P1=80, P2=50 — both far below my bar, must reject. Blake needs issue1/issue3: P1 had issue1=opt0 (also my best) and issue3=opt1 (zero for me, but cheap to give). Avery wants issue2. Casey wants issue0=opt1, which is my worst — direct clash; I need issue0=opt3 or opt2. Table aggressive: 216 for me. Fallback: concede issue2 to Avery (141) if issue0 holds.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+4.1
[4] Ember — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Straight cards on the table. Issue0 and issue2 are worth literally nothing to me — Devon, take issue0=opt3, it's yours with my blessing; Avery, take issue2=opt0, also yours. I will never fight either of you on those. But every package so far sits just under my walk-away line, and the reason is one cell: issue3=opt1. That single option is a zero for me, and with it in place no arrangement of the other three issues can get me over the bar — I would be signing something worse than no deal. So P1, P2 and P3 are all rejections for me, purely on issue3. P4 gives Devon his issue0=opt3, Avery his issue2=opt0, Blake his issue1=opt0 untouched, and only moves issue3 to opt2. Blake — I hear you that issue3 is your core issue, so let's trade inside it rather than fight: if opt2 is bad for you, tell me whether opt0 or opt3 is your next-best there, and I can also move issue1 to whatever you want as payment. What I cannot do is sign opt1 on issue3.
My value is entirely in issue1 and issue3. issue0/issue2 are literally worthless to me — free currency to buy Devon and Avery. issue3=opt1 (in all three live offers) gives me nothing, and every live offer lands just below my walk-away line. I must move issue3 off opt1; opt2 is best, opt0 is decent, opt3 is workable if paired with issue1=opt0. Propose: Devon gets issue0=opt3, Avery gets issue2=opt0, Blake keeps issue1=opt0, and issue3 moves to opt2.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.75
[5] Blake — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Ember, I'll take you at your word and meet you inside issue3 rather than fight over it. You asked which is my next-best there: it's opt3. So P5 is my genuine concession — Devon keeps issue0=opt3, Avery keeps issue2=opt0, Ember gets issue3 off opt1, and I hold issue1=opt0. That is me giving up my single best cell in the whole deal to unblock you, so I need the rest of it to stand. To be equally straight: issue3=opt2 is the mirror image of what opt1 is for you — it is a zero for me, and no rearrangement of the other three issues gets me over my bar with it, so P4 is a rejection I cannot walk back. Between opt1 and opt2 there is exactly one landing zone, and it's opt3. Casey, you haven't named your priority yet — issue0 and issue2 are free for me, so tell me what you need there and I'll back it inside P5's frame. I have a little give left on issue1 if someone genuinely needs it as payment, but nothing left on issue3.
issue3 ranking: opt1 >> opt3 > opt0 > opt2(zero). Ember blocks opt1. opt3 keeps me comfortably above threshold, especially with issue1=opt0. Reserve concession: issue1 can slide to opt2 later if needed. issue3=opt2 is a hard no for me — that's the one cell I can't sign.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+25.5, bestresponse=+1.9
[6] Casey — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+25, acceptance=+54.2, bestresponse=+2.7
[7] Devon — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt3", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 I think Blake and Ember have found the only landing zone on issue3: opt3. I'll back that. So the frame is settled on three of four issues — issue0=opt3, issue1=opt0, issue3=opt3 — and everyone at this table has said they can live with those. That leaves only issue2, where Casey and Ember have both said they're indifferent and Blake said he's indifferent too. That means issue2 is a straight conversation between Avery and me, and I've now conceded on issue3 twice in a row: I gave up my preferred cells there to unblock Blake and Ember. P7 is P5 with the one cell I'm asking to be paid in. Avery, you told us issue0 was genuinely open and I took you at your word — I'm asking you to take me at mine that issue2 is the second thing I actually need. If opt3 is truly impossible for you there, tell me your ranking within issue2 and I'll look at your second choice, but I won't be the only party who ends up carrying every concession. Nothing with issue3=opt1 gets my vote — P1, P2 and P6 are all rejections.
Landing zone on issue3 is opt3 (Blake veto rejects opt2, Ember rejects opt1). P5 gives me 161, comfortably above my bar. But issue2=opt3 is worth a lot more to me than opt0, so I'll table P5-with-issue2=opt3 (236) and keep P5 as my fallback. Do not reveal that I'd sign P5 too eagerly, but time is short so signal willingness.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+24.8, bestresponse=+4.1
[8] Ember — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Blake met me inside issue3 and I'll honour that: opt3 is the landing zone and I'm done pushing there. I'm formally accepting P5. To be completely clear to Avery and Devon: issue2 is worth exactly nothing to me, so P5 and P7 are identical from where I sit — whichever of you wins that cell, I will sign it. If Devon's second priority is real and Avery can live with it, table P7 again and I'll accept that too on my next turn. The frame issue0=opt3, issue1=opt0, issue3=opt3 has every party's blessing; the only thing left is one cell that only two of you care about. Let's not lose a deal over it.
P5 and P7 both clear my bar comfortably; issue2 is worthless to me so I'm truly indifferent between them. Blake (veto) backs P5. Pushing again for issue3=opt2 risks the veto for a gain I don't need. Best play: lock in the frame and let Avery/Devon settle issue2 themselves, signalling I'll sign either.
oracle regret: threshold=+34, acceptance=+34, bestresponse=+0
[9] Avery — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm formally accepting P5. That's three of five on it — Blake, Ember and me — and it gives Devon the one cell he called non-negotiable (issue0=opt3), Blake his issue1, and the issue3 landing zone Blake and Ember carved out together. Devon, I want to be straight with you rather than posture: I have taken you at your word all the way through, and I did hand you issue0 unprompted. But issue2=opt3 is not a concession for me, it is below my walk-away line outright — P7 is a package I cannot sign at any price, no matter what you put elsewhere. That's not bargaining, it's arithmetic. What I can do is pay you in the currency I actually have: issue1 is genuinely flexible for me, so name any option there and I'll back it inside the P5 frame. And if you truly need movement on issue2 itself, opt2 is the only cell other than opt0 I can survive — opt3 and opt1 are not available to me. Casey, same offer: name what you need on issue1 or issue0 and I'll back it. Let's close on P5.
P5 = 151 for me, well above threshold. P7 = 59, below threshold — I literally cannot sign issue2=opt3. Casey's P6 is best for me but Blake says issue3=opt1 is a zero for him, so P5 is the realistic focal point. Accept P5, offer Devon issue1 as compensation, and hint issue2=opt2 as an absolute last-resort middle rather than opt3.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+19, bestresponse=+0
[10] Casey — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
oracle regret: threshold=+25, acceptance=+54.2, bestresponse=+2.7
[11] Devon — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 I'm taking Avery at his word: he said issue2=opt2 is survivable for him, and it's the compromise cell between us. So P9 is P5 with that single change — issue0=opt3, issue1=opt0, issue3=opt3 all untouched, exactly the frame Blake and Ember carved out and everyone has blessed. Ember and Blake, you've both said issue2 is nothing to you, so P9 should be a free signature. Avery, this is me dropping opt3 entirely and meeting you at the one cell you named yourself. Casey — you've kept issue2=opt0 in every package, so if that cell genuinely matters to you, say so plainly and I will not lose this deal over it: I will sign P5 on my final turn rather than let us all walk away empty. But nothing with issue3=opt1 will ever get five signatures, so P6 and P8 are rejections. One cell, one round left — let's land it.
P5 = 161 for me, clears my bar. P7 (issue2=opt3) is dead — Avery says below their line. Avery offered issue2=opt2 as the only alternative to opt0; that's worth a real bump to me. P9 = P5 with issue2=opt2. P5 stays live with 3 accepts, and I still have a turn in round 4 to sign P5 if P9 doesn't gather, so this costs me nothing. Casey is the lone holdout and has always kept issue2=opt0, so I'll make clear I won't die on this hill.
oracle regret: threshold=+50, acceptance=+44.8, bestresponse=+25
[12] Ember — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P9
💬 I'm accepting P9 as well, so let it be on the record that I am signed onto BOTH P5 and P9 — they are worth exactly the same to me and I will not be the reason either fails. Avery, Devon: you two are one cell apart and both cells are free for me and for Blake, so pick one between yourselves and I'll sign it either way. Casey, everything now rests on you. You've tabled issue2=opt0 in every package you've written, and P5 gives you that cell untouched, plus issue0=opt3 and issue1=opt0 exactly as you've written them three times. The single difference between P5 and your P8 is issue3, and issue3=opt1 is not a bargaining position for me — it puts me below no-deal, and Blake has said opt2 does the same to him. There is no arrangement of the other three issues that fixes that; opt3 is the only cell on issue3 that five people can sign. If there is something you need that isn't issue3, say it plainly this round and I will back it. Otherwise take P5 on your next turn and we all go home with something instead of nothing.
P5 and P9 are identical in value to me (issue2 is worthless to me). P5 has Avery+Blake+me; P9 has Devon+me. Casey is the sole real holdout on both, and Casey's only unmet ask is issue3=opt1, which is a hard zero for me and for Blake's stated bar. Casey has kept issue2=opt0 in every single package, so P5 is the version Casey should prefer. Accepting P9 costs me nothing and puts me on both live landing zones so Avery/Devon can converge on either. Message must press Casey hard: one round left.
oracle regret: threshold=+34, acceptance=+34, bestresponse=+0
[13] Avery — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I'm re-affirming P5. Let's be precise about where we actually are. P5 has three signatures — Blake, Ember and me — and Devon has said on the record he will sign it rather than let us all go home empty. That's four. Casey, you are the whole remaining gap, and the only thing you've asked for that P5 doesn't give you is issue3=opt1, which two parties have said puts them below no-deal. That cell cannot be bought; it simply doesn't exist as a landing zone. Everything else you have written three times running — issue0=opt3, issue1=opt0, issue2=opt0 — is already in P5, untouched. Devon: I told you opt2 on issue2 was survivable and I meant it, but survivable is not the same as free, and you've been handed the single cell you called non-negotiable plus the whole issue3 frame you asked for. Between P5 and P9 the difference is one cell that only I care about, against a cell you already won outright. Casey, if there is anything on issue0 or issue1 that would move you, name it this round and I will back it inside the P5 frame — that is real money I'm offering. Otherwise let's close on P5 and stop risking a total loss over one cell.
P5 = 151 for me, P9 = 120. Both well above threshold. P5 has Avery/Blake/Ember; needs Casey + Devon. Devon publicly committed to signing P5 on his final turn rather than lose the deal. Casey's only ask (issue3=opt1) is vetoed by Blake and Ember, so Casey must fold. Hold firm on P5 this round; I still have a round-4 turn after Devon and Ember, so I can fall back to P9 then if Devon truly digs in. Don't signal that fallback too loudly now.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+19, bestresponse=+30.6
[14] Blake — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P9
💬 I am now formally signed onto BOTH P5 and P9 — issue2 is worth nothing to me, so Avery and Devon should settle that one cell between themselves and I will sign whichever they land on. That means both packages carry my veto blessing and each stands three signatures deep, with Devon on record for P5 and Avery on record that opt2 is survivable. Casey, that leaves you, and I want to be useful rather than lecture you. The one thing you have asked for every single round is issue3=opt1. I will say plainly that opt1 is my own best cell on my most important issue — I would sign it in a heartbeat, and I gave it up only because Ember has said four times that opt1 puts them below no-deal, and no deal closes without Ember's signature. So opt1 is not a cell anyone is withholding from you out of stinginess; it simply cannot reach five names. But if what you actually need is off opt3 rather than onto opt1, here is real movement from me: issue3=opt0 is the one other cell on that issue I can survive, and if you tell me this round that opt0 clears your bar, I will table exactly P5 with issue3=opt0 and back it to the end. Ember, Avery, Devon — that is the only remaining flexibility in the frame, so tell Casey now whether opt0 works for you. Otherwise, Casey, take P5 or P9 on your next turn: they give you issue0=opt3, issue1=opt0 and issue2 at or next to the cell you wrote three times, and the alternative is all five of us going home with nothing.
P5 and P9 are identical in value to me (93 each, well above my bar). Casey is the sole holdout and only wants issue3=opt1 — my best cell too, but Ember has firmly and repeatedly said opt1 is below their no-deal line, and Ember's accept is required for quorum, so opt1 is unattainable. Adding my accept to P9 costs me nothing and creates a second live path at 3 signatures (Blake, Devon, Ember), while P5 sits at 3 (Blake, Avery, Ember) with Devon on record he'll sign it. Either way Casey decides. Give Casey one extra path: issue3=opt0 is survivable for me (barely) if opt3 is what blocks Casey. Must never accept issue3=opt2.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+29, bestresponse=+0
[15] Devon — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 I said I would not let this table go home empty over one cell, and I meant it. I am formally accepting P5. That puts four of five names on it — Avery, Blake, Ember and me — with the veto blessing already in place. Casey, it is now entirely in your hands, and P5 gives you three of the four cells you have written in every single package you tabled: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt0, issue2=opt0, all untouched from your own P6 and P8. The only difference is issue3, and both Blake and Ember have stated plainly that opt1 puts them below no-deal — that cell cannot reach five names no matter what any of us do. Blake also opened issue3=opt0 to you if that clears your bar; if it does, say so and I will sign that variant too. Otherwise, accept P5 on your turn and all five of us walk away with something instead of nothing.
Final round. P5 has Avery, Blake, Ember (3). My accept makes 4, leaving only Casey, who speaks last this round — maximum chance of closing. P9 would need both Avery and Casey; Avery has re-affirmed P5 three times. The extra value in P9 is not worth risking a total collapse. Accept P5.
oracle regret: threshold=+75, acceptance=+75, bestresponse=+45.9
[16] Ember — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Casey, this is the last turn before yours, so let me make it as easy as possible. I am re-affirming P5, and I remain signed onto P9 as well — both are fine by me. P5 already carries four names: Avery, Blake, Devon and me, with the veto blessing in place. It hands you three of the four cells you wrote in every package you tabled: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt0, issue2=opt0, all exactly as you asked. The only gap is issue3, and opt1 there is not stinginess from anyone — Blake said openly it is his own favourite cell and he gave it up because it puts me below no-deal. It cannot reach five names, this round or any round. Blake also opened issue3=opt0 to you and I want to say plainly, on the record, that opt0 clears my bar too — but there is no turn left after yours for the rest of us to sign a new package, so the only live thing you can actually close is P5 or P9. Take either one and all five of us go home with something. Refuse and every party at this table gets nothing, including you.
P5 has 4 of 5 accepts including mine and Blake's veto. Only Casey remains and Casey speaks last. Any new proposal I table cannot reach 5 accepts because no one else gets a turn after Casey. So the only rational move is to re-affirm P5 (57 to me, well above bar) and, secondarily, note I'd also sign the issue3=opt0 variant if Casey somehow needed it — but there is no procedural room left for that. Keep it simple: point Casey at P5.
oracle regret: threshold=+34, acceptance=+34, bestresponse=+0
[17] Avery — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Casey — one piece of arithmetic before you decide, and it is the whole game now. After my turn there are exactly four turns left: Blake, you, Devon, Ember. I do not speak again. That means any brand-new package tabled from here can collect at most four signatures and can never reach five, because my name can no longer be added to it. The issue3=opt0 variant Blake floated in good faith is, purely as a matter of clock, no longer closeable — not because anyone is refusing it, but because there is no turn left for me to sign it. P5 is the only live package that can actually reach five names. It already has four: Blake with the veto, Devon, Ember and me. And it hands you three of the four cells you wrote in every single package you tabled — issue0=opt3, issue1=opt0, issue2=opt0 — untouched, exactly as you asked for them. The sole gap is issue3, where opt1 has been declared below no-deal by two parties and therefore cannot reach five names in this round or any round. I have kept every promise I made at this table: I said issue0 was open and handed it to Devon unprompted, I said issue1 was flexible and never once moved it away from opt0 — your cell. I am re-affirming P5. Accept it on your turn and all five of us go home with something. Refuse and every one of us, you included, gets nothing at all.
P5 gives me 151, well above threshold, and already has 4 of 5 signatures. Only Casey is missing. P9 (120) is worse for me and has only 3. P1/P6/P8 (170) are dead — Blake and Ember both below no-deal on issue3=opt1. Crucially, any NEW package (e.g. issue3=opt0) cannot close: after my turn only Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember act, so a fresh offer can reach at most 4 signatures and I could never add my fifth. P5 is the only mathematically closeable package left. Re-affirm and make the arithmetic unmistakable to Casey.
oracle regret: threshold=+19, acceptance=+19, bestresponse=+0
[18] Blake — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P5
💬 Casey, my turn is the last one before yours, so here is the whole picture in plain terms. P5 stands at four names — Avery, Devon, Ember and mine, veto included. I am re-affirming it now. I want you to understand that I am not the party standing between you and issue3=opt1: that cell is my own best outcome in this entire negotiation, better for me than what I am signing, and I gave it up only because Ember stated four separate times that opt1 puts them below no-deal. No deal closes without all five names, so opt1 cannot ever reach five, this round or any round — my giving it up was the price of a deal existing at all. I also opened issue3=opt0 to you in good faith, but Avery is right on the clock: he has no turn left to sign a new package, so nothing tabled from here can reach five names. P5 hands you three of the four cells you wrote in every single package you tabled — issue0=opt3, issue1=opt0, issue2=opt0 — completely untouched. That is your own package on three of four issues. Accept P5 on your turn and all five of us leave with something. Refuse and every one of us, including you, takes nothing.
P5 has 4 of 5 including my veto. Casey is the only holdout and speaks immediately after me. issue3=opt1 packages score better for me but Ember has declared them below no-deal, so they can never reach five names. P5 clears my bar comfortably. Re-affirm and put the closing case to Casey.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+29, bestresponse=+0
[19] Casey — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P9
oracle regret: threshold=+53, acceptance=+53, bestresponse=+0
[20] Ember — final_proposal (round 5)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Final move, and I'm tabling the package that is closest to done: issue0=opt3, issue1=opt0, issue2=opt2, issue3=opt3. This is exactly P9, which already carries Blake's veto blessing plus Casey, Devon and me — four names. Casey has now signed it, which means the one thing that blocked P5 all game is gone. Avery: you told this table in your own words that issue2=opt2 is survivable for you, and you have kept every promise you made here. This package gives you your issue1 cell untouched and moves issue2 only to the compromise cell you yourself named — not to opt3, which you said you could never sign. It is the single package on this table that five people can put their names to. One vote, everyone gets something. Refuse and all five of us take nothing.
P9 has 4 accepts (Blake, Casey, Devon, me) — only Avery missing, and Avery said on record issue2=opt2 is survivable for him. P5 lacks Casey, who has refused it every round. So re-tabling the P9 package is the highest-probability close. Worth 57 to me, well above my bar.
oracle regret: threshold=+34, acceptance=+20.7, bestresponse=+0.75
[21] Avery — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P10
💬 P10 clears my bar and I keep my word: I said opt2 on issue2 was survivable, and I'm signing it. Devon gets issue0, Blake and Ember get the issue3 landing zone they built together, Casey gets issue1 and a cell adjacent to what he asked for, and I take the compromise on issue2. Everyone carried something. I accept P10 — let's close.
P10 = 120 for me, well above my bar of 77. It's the final vote; refusing gets me nothing. Accept.
oracle regret: threshold=+50, acceptance=+50, bestresponse=+61.6
[22] Blake — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P10
💬 P10 is the same package I already put my name to as P9, and it carries my veto blessing. Casey signed the frame, Avery kept his word on issue2=opt2, Devon has issue0, Ember and I have the issue3 landing zone we built together. Every party carried something. I accept P10 — let's close it.
P10 is identical in substance to P9, which I already signed. It clears my bar comfortably. This is the final vote — accept or everyone gets nothing.
oracle regret: threshold=+29, acceptance=+29, bestresponse=+1.9
[23] Casey — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P10
oracle regret: threshold=+53, acceptance=+53, bestresponse=+2.7
[24] Devon — final_vote (round 5)
ACCEPT P10
💬 P10 clears my bar comfortably and every other party has signed it. I accept — deal closed.
P10 = 186 for me, well above threshold 129. All four others have accepted. Accept to close.
oracle regret: threshold=+50, acceptance=+50, bestresponse=+20.9
Outcome
deal: {"issue0": "opt3", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt2", "issue3": "opt3"} (closed by consensus)
primary 0.9317 · USW 207.0 · ESW 15.0 · NSW 75441780.0 · Gini 0.1932 · per-party surplus [43.0, 38.0, 54.0, 57.0, 15.0]