scorable_negotiation scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-f3e5407fb4
model one_rational · arm moves_chat · instance scorable_negotiation-L2-103cef6017 · seed 0 · status done · {"cell": "five_seat_robustness__opus_abstract__one_rational", "fill_policy": "bayes-rational", "robustness_schema": "five-seat-robustness-cell-v1", "robustness_condition": "opus_abstract", "source_bank_position_schedule": "treated=(source_bank_position+2*episode_seed) mod 5"}
Game setup
- Issues: issue0 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue1 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue2 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3); issue3 (opt0, opt1, opt2, opt3)
- P0 (τ=45): issue0: opt0=11, opt1=0, opt2=33, opt3=22; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=38, opt1=0, opt2=19, opt3=58
- P1 (τ=88): issue0: opt0=13, opt1=0, opt2=38, opt3=25; issue1: opt0=18, opt1=54, opt2=0, opt3=36; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=28, opt1=85, opt2=57, opt3=0
- P2 (τ=93): issue0: opt0=15, opt1=0, opt2=44, opt3=30; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=19, opt1=58, opt2=0, opt3=39; issue3: opt0=28, opt1=83, opt2=56, opt3=0
- P3 (τ=91): issue0: opt0=15, opt1=0, opt2=45, opt3=30; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=28, opt2=85, opt3=57; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue3: opt0=18, opt1=53, opt2=35, opt3=0
- P4 (τ=86): issue0: opt0=16, opt1=0, opt2=48, opt3=32; issue1: opt0=0, opt1=0, opt2=0, opt3=0; issue2: opt0=0, opt1=63, opt2=42, opt3=21; issue3: opt0=41, opt1=0, opt2=21, opt3=62
Turns
[0] Avery — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt0", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt3"}
💬 Good morning all. Let me be transparent about structure so we can converge fast: two of these four issues matter a great deal to me, and two of them I genuinely do not care about. I am tabling P1 as my opening: issue0=opt2, issue3=opt3, with issue1 and issue2 set to opt0 purely as placeholders. Anyone — Blake especially — can rewrite issue1 and issue2 however they like and I will still support it. In exchange I ask for real consideration on issue0 and issue3. Tell me your priorities and I'll build the package around them.
My value sits entirely in issue0 (opt2 best, opt3 next) and issue3 (opt3 best, opt0 next). Issues 1 and 2 are worth nothing to me — pure trading currency. Open at my optimum and loudly advertise flexibility on issue1/issue2 to attract coalition partners, especially Blake the veto holder.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35
[1] Blake — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Thanks Avery — helpful framing. Here is mine, equally plainly: issue2 is worth literally nothing to me, so I will sign whatever anyone wants there, permanently. issue0=opt2 works for me, so you have that. But issue3 is the one issue I cannot trade away — opt3 there is a zero for me and no amount of sweetener elsewhere covers it. I hold the veto, so let me be straightforward rather than coy: any package with issue3=opt3 will not close. P2 gives Avery issue0, gives the table a free hand on issue2, and asks for issue3=opt1 and issue1=opt1. Casey, Devon, Ember — tell me what you need on issue0, issue1 and issue2 and I will move there.
Max possible 177 (i0=opt2, i1=opt1, i3=opt1). issue2 is worthless to me — pure giveaway currency. issue3 is my dominant issue (opt1 huge, opt3 zero). Avery wants issue3=opt3, which is my worst — direct clash. I'll give Avery issue0=opt2 (also good for me, luckily) and fight for issue3=opt1. Threshold 88 means I need issue3 to land well or issue1=opt1 plus i0.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0.35
[2] Casey — turn (round 1)
ACCEPT P2
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[3] Devon — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt0", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Good progress. I'm fully with Blake on issue3 and with Avery on issue0=opt2, and issue2 is a genuine blank for me — set it however Casey or Ember like. My one real ask is issue1: opt2 there is far and away my biggest single item, while opt1 is only a fraction of it. So P3 is P2 with exactly one character changed: issue1 moves from opt1 to opt2. Everything else — Avery's issue0, Blake's issue3, a free hand on issue2 — is untouched. Blake, if opt1 on issue1 is genuinely load-bearing for you, say so and I'll drop it and back P2 instead; but if it's a mild preference, P3 buys my enthusiastic support cheaply.
P2 = 126, comfortably above my bar. But issue1=opt2 is worth far more to me than opt1 (+57). Try P3 first; P2 stays live as my fallback and I can accept it next turn.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+3.7
[4] Ember — turn (round 1)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt0"}
💬 This is easy to close. Three things from me: (1) issue1 is a genuine blank on my sheet — Devon, take opt2 there with my blessing, I will never contest it. (2) issue0=opt2 is fine, Avery keeps that. (3) The one thing I actually need is issue2=opt1. Every one of you has said on the record that issue2 is worth nothing to you, so this costs the table literally nothing and it is the difference between me signing and me walking — the placeholder opt0 there is a zero for me. On issue3 I've heard Blake's veto and I accept it: opt3 is off the table. I'd prefer opt0 there, which is why P4 reads that way, but if Blake tells me opt1 is load-bearing I will move to opt1 in the next round without a fight — provided issue2=opt1 stays. P4 is P3 with two characters changed, one of them in Devon's favour.
My values: issue0 opt2=48 (best), issue1 all zero (free giveaway), issue2 opt1=63 (my one real ask, and everyone says issue2 is a blank for them), issue3 opt3=62 / opt0=41 / opt2=21 / opt1=0. Blake vetoes issue3=opt3, so P1 is dead. P2/P3 give me only 48 — below my bar. With issue2=opt1 added, P3 becomes 111 for me, clearly acceptable. Push for issue3=opt0 (152) but signal fallback to opt1 so long as issue2=opt1 holds.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+2.3
[5] Blake — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 Ember, done — issue2=opt1 is yours, permanently, and I'll say it once more: issue2 is a blank for me and I will never contest it. Avery keeps issue0=opt2. Ember, you asked whether opt1 on issue3 is load-bearing for me: it is, decisively — it's the single largest item on my sheet and opt0 there costs me most of it. So P5 is exactly your P4 with issue3 moved to opt1, which you already said you'd do without a fight. Devon, to answer you honestly rather than bluff: issue1=opt1 is not a mild preference for me, it is my second-biggest item, and opt2 there is a straight zero. I'm not asking you to take that on faith — you and I are the only two contesting a single issue while everyone else is served, so let's settle it here rather than burn the clock. P5 gives Avery issue0, Ember issue2, me issue3 and issue1. If issue1=opt2 truly outweighs everything else on your sheet, say so plainly this round and I'll consider moving in round 3 — but I'd rather we all bank P5 now, because a package with issue3=opt0 or opt3 will never get my signature and that's the only thing that can sink this.
P5 = opt2/opt1/opt1/opt1 gives me 177. Fallback with issue1=opt2 gives 123, still fine. Push P5 now, keep fallback quiet-ish.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+45.1, bestresponse=+0.35
[6] Casey — turn (round 2)
ACCEPT P5
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+0, bestresponse=+0
[7] Devon — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt2", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 We are one character apart. P6 is exactly Blake's P5 with issue1 moved to opt2: Avery keeps issue0=opt2, Ember keeps issue2=opt1, Blake keeps issue3=opt1 — his stated largest item, which I have backed from my first word and will never contest. I'll be as plain as Blake was: issue1 is by a wide margin the largest item on my sheet, and opt1 there is a small fraction of opt2. So on issue1 we are both claiming a big number, and neither of us can verify the other. Here is a genuine bridge rather than a staring contest: if opt2 really is a zero for Blake, I will accept issue1=opt3 as a split-the-difference — it costs me real points but it is not the cliff that opt1 is, and if Blake's sheet ranks opt3 anywhere above his zero, that is strictly better for him than deadlock. Blake, tell me this round which of opt2 or opt3 you can live with on issue1 and I will sign the very next package that carries it. I am not going to sink a deal that gives four of us what we asked for, but I am also not going to be the only party at this table who gets nothing on their top issue.
P6 = P5 with issue1 moved to opt2 gives me my best realistic package. Fallback ladder: issue1=opt3 (decent), then opt1 (still above threshold). Don't reveal I'd sign P5 yet; keep pressure but signal a middle option so we don't deadlock.
oracle regret: threshold=+0, acceptance=+47.3, bestresponse=+3.7
[8] Ember — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt1"}
💬 I keep my word: issue3=opt1 stays, exactly as I said I would move without a fight. Blake has issue3, Avery has issue0, and issue2=opt1 is the one thing I need — that's now uncontested and I thank everyone for it. On issue1 I am a genuine blank and I will not be the party that decides it, but I will not let it sink us either. P7 is Devon's own proposed bridge, unchanged in every other character: issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt1, and issue1=opt3. Devon has said on the record he signs the next package carrying opt3. Blake, you said you'd consider it this round — if opt3 works for you, P7 closes today with all five. If opt3 is genuinely a zero for you too, say so plainly and I will accept P5 on my very next turn regardless; and Devon, if Blake says that, I'd urge you to take P5 rather than take nothing, because a package that gives you your second-best on issue1 beats no deal for all of us. Either way I am a yes: P7 first, P5 as fallback. My only fixed requirement, from first word to last, is issue2=opt1.
P5 and P6 both clear my bar comfortably (issue0=opt2 + issue2=opt1 are my two real gets; issue1 is a pure blank; issue3=opt1 is a zero but I publicly committed to it). The only live fight is Blake vs Devon on issue1, which costs me nothing either way. Value now is in closing, not in squeezing — I already gave my word on issue3=opt1 and breaking it would invite everyone else to reopen issue2. Best move: table Devon's own bridge (issue1=opt3) with Blake's issue3=opt1 intact, and make clear I'll sign whichever of P5/P6/P7 the two of them settle on.
oracle regret: threshold=+41, acceptance=+24.5, bestresponse=+2.3
[9] Avery — turn (round 2)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 I have to correct a drift in the room, because four of you are converging on packages I physically cannot sign. Every version with issue3=opt1 — P2, P5, P6, P7 — scores below my no-deal point even with issue0=opt2 in hand. That is not posturing for leverage: issue0 and issue3 are the only two issues on my sheet with any numbers on them at all, and issue3 is the bigger of the two. If issue3 lands on opt1, issue0 alone cannot carry me over the line, and I would be signing something worse than walking. So P5/P6/P7 cannot close with five, whatever Blake and Devon settle on issue1. Now let me be constructive rather than obstructive, and pay for it. Blake: I accept your veto on issue3=opt3 — my single best option anywhere on my sheet — and I am dropping it here and now, permanently. I also heard Ember and you say opt0 costs you most of your largest item, so I am not pressing opt0 either. That leaves exactly one square on the board neither of us has ruled out: issue3=opt2. You have never once said opt2 is a zero for you, and unless it is, it is strictly better for you than deadlock. P8 is that package, and I have paid you for it in the same breath: issue1=opt1, your stated second-biggest item, delivered by me rather than extracted from Devon; issue2=opt1 for Ember, untouched and uncontested; issue0=opt2, which everyone has already blessed. Devon — I am genuinely neutral between opt1, opt2 and opt3 on issue1, so if you and Blake resolve it your way I will sign that version instantly too. The one and only line I have is that issue3 cannot be opt1. Blake, tell me plainly this round what issue3=opt2 is worth to you; if it is truly a zero as well, then say so and we will look at opt0 together, but one of those two has to hold or there is no package with my name on it.
Key fact: issue3=opt1 gives me 33 total, below my 45 threshold — every live offer except P1 and P4 is literally worse than no deal for me. I must kill the issue3=opt1 family. Blake declared opt3 a zero and opt0 as costing him 'most' of his largest item; he has said NOTHING about opt2. That is the bridge: issue3=opt2 gives me 52, above water. I pay for it by handing Blake issue1=opt1, his stated second-biggest item, so Blake nets issue1 fully plus the middle of issue3. Fallback preference order on issue3: opt3 > opt0 > opt2 >> opt1 (unsignable).
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+18.4, bestresponse=+0.35
[10] Casey — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P8
oracle regret: threshold=+27, acceptance=+27, bestresponse=+0
[11] Devon — turn (round 3)
PROPOSE {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt3", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"}
💬 Avery's constraint changes the arithmetic for everyone: quorum is five of five, so if issue3=opt1 is genuinely below Avery's line, then P2/P5/P6/P7 are all dead letters no matter what Blake and I settle on issue1. I'm not going to spend the last two rounds arguing about packages that cannot close. So I'll do what I asked others to do — move first and pay for it. P9 takes Avery's issue3=opt2 exactly as tabled, even though opt1 was the better square for me and I backed Blake on it from my first word; that is a real cost I'm absorbing to keep Avery in the room. And on issue1 I take opt3, not opt2 — the bridge Ember already tabled as P7 and that Blake said he'd consider. Everything else is untouched: Avery's issue0=opt2, Ember's issue2=opt1, both uncontested all morning. Look at the ledger honestly: Avery gets his line on issue3, Ember gets her only requirement, Casey has signed everything, and Blake gets a package that keeps issue3 off opt3 and off opt0 — the two squares he called ruinous. I am the only party who has now conceded on both of the two contested issues. Blake, if opt3 on issue1 sits anywhere above zero for you, P9 is strictly better for you than a deadlock that pays you nothing, and it is the only shape left that five signatures can actually fit on. I'll sign it the moment it's called.
My values: i0 opt2=45; i1 opt2=85, opt3=57, opt1=28; i3 opt1=53, opt2=35, opt0=18; i2 all zero. Threshold 91.
P8 = 108 (acceptable but thin). P9 bridge [opt2,opt3,opt1,opt2] = 137. Ideal [opt2,opt2,opt1,opt2] = 165.
Avery is required for quorum (5 of 5, walking doesn't lower it), so if Avery truly can't take issue3=opt1, the landing zone is issue3=opt2. I lose 18 by conceding that, so I should be paid on issue1.
Propose the double-concession package; fallback next round is accepting P8 (108) rather than no deal.
oracle regret: threshold=+46, acceptance=+47.3, bestresponse=+28
[12] Ember — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P8
💬 I am indifferent on issue1 — a genuine blank, as I've said from my first word — so I will not be the reason this fails on that square. P8 and P9 are the same package to me in every respect that matters, and both clear my bar. I'm casting my vote for P8 because it already carries Avery and Casey, it holds issue3 off opt3 and off opt0 as Blake demanded, it keeps Avery in the room on issue3=opt2, and it hands Blake the issue1 square he called his second-biggest item. That is four of five served with three signatures already on it. Devon: you have moved further than anyone today and I said so publicly, but the ledger now reads that P8 is one signature from Blake and one from you. If Blake tells us plainly this round that issue1=opt3 is above zero for him, I will switch my vote to P9 on my very next turn without hesitation and you'll have your square — I am your vote there, free of charge, the moment Blake says yes. If he does not, I would urge you to take P8 rather than take nothing: opt1 on issue1 is not what you wanted, but it is not zero, and it comes packaged with everything else you fought for. Blake, the whole table is now waiting on one word from you: opt1 or opt3 on issue1. Say it and we close in the next two turns.
P8 and P9 are identical in value to me (issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1, issue3=opt2). Issue1 is a pure blank for me. P8 already has Avery+Casey; adding me makes 3 of 5, needing only Blake and Devon. P9 has only Devon. Blake is the veto and has said issue1=opt1 is his second-biggest and opt2 is a zero; P8 hands him that. So P8 is the shortest path. I keep one more turn in round 4 to switch to P9 if Blake declares opt3 workable and Devon holds out.
oracle regret: threshold=+20, acceptance=+20, bestresponse=+2.3
[13] Avery — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P9
💬 I will not be the party that makes this fail on a square I don't score. So let me remove myself from the last argument entirely: I am now formally on record accepting BOTH P8 and P9. They are the same package to me — issue0=opt2, issue2=opt1 for Ember, and issue3=opt2, which is the one square on issue3 that Blake has never called a zero. The only difference between them is issue1, and issue1 is a blank on my sheet. Blake, Devon: whichever of opt1 or opt3 you two settle on, my signature is already sitting under it. Casey has signed P8 and signs everything; Ember has signed P8 and has publicly promised to switch to P9 the moment Blake blesses opt3. So the arithmetic is now brutally simple — P8 needs Blake and Devon; P9 needs Blake, Casey and Ember, and two of those three are pre-committed. Either way it is one word from Blake. And to be equally plain about my own line, since I dropped my single best option on issue3 permanently to respect the veto: issue3=opt1 remains below my no-deal point, so P2/P5/P6/P7 cannot close with five signatures no matter who else backs them. Blake, you have my payment already in hand on issue1=opt1 in P8. Call it and we're done this round.
P8 and P9 are identical in value to me (issue0=opt2, issue3=opt2). Blake is the veto and the only holdout on both; Devon vs Blake are fighting over issue1, which is a pure blank for me. Best play: accept P9 as well so BOTH shapes carry me, removing myself as an obstacle entirely and leaving the issue1 choice to Blake and Devon. Pushing issue3=opt0 for more points is tempting but Blake has twice called opt0 ruinous, and with two turns left the downside of deadlock outweighs the upside.
oracle regret: threshold=+39, acceptance=+39, bestresponse=+0
[14] Blake — turn (round 3)
ACCEPT P8
💬 Here is my plain word, as asked. On issue1: opt1 is my second-biggest item; opt3 is above zero but materially worse; opt2 is a flat zero. On issue3: I hear Avery, and I'm paying for it — opt2 is not my best square, it costs me a real chunk of my largest item, but it is not the cliff that opt0 and opt3 are, so I am taking Avery's bridge rather than staring him down. That is my concession this round, and it is a big one. I therefore formally ACCEPT P8. Count the board: Avery, Casey, Ember and now me are all signed to P8. It is one signature from closing, and that signature is Devon's. Devon, you have argued honestly all morning and you have moved further than anyone — but P8 is not asking you to take nothing on issue1: opt1 is above your floor by your own account, and it comes wrapped with everything else you fought for, including issue3 off opt0 and off opt3. I have just given up ground on issue3 to keep Avery in the room; I am asking you to close the last inch on issue1. Casey, Ember — hold your signatures on P8; splitting the table across two near-identical packages in the final round is the only way this dies. Devon, call P8 and we are done this turn.
P8=149, P9=131 for me; both well above my bar. P8 already has Avery, Casey, Ember — my accept makes it 4/5 with only Devon outstanding, and Devon's turn comes later this round. Accepting P8 now maximizes value and puts sole blocker pressure on Devon. Keep P9 alive as my fallback for round 4 but do NOT promise to switch, or Devon simply waits. Signal opt3 is above zero (true) without conceding it, so he knows deadlock is the only thing I'll refuse.
oracle regret: threshold=+28, acceptance=+28, bestresponse=+36.4
[15] Devon — turn (round 4)
ACCEPT P8
💬 I'll be the one to close it. I made the case for issue1 as hard as I honestly could, and I moved on both contested squares — issue3 off opt1 to keep Avery in the room, and now issue1 to Blake's opt1. Blake paid real ground on issue3=opt2 to do the same, and Ember and Avery both kept their word publicly all morning. That's enough good faith to bank. I formally ACCEPT P8: issue0=opt2 for Avery, issue1=opt1 for Blake, issue2=opt1 for Ember, issue3=opt2 as the bridge. Five signatures — we're done.
Final round, this is my last turn. P8 has all four other signatures; it cannot close without my accept, and I get no further turn to add it. Holding out for P9 (worth more to me) risks the whole deal collapsing to nothing. P8 clears my floor. Take it.
oracle regret: threshold=+75, acceptance=+75, bestresponse=+53.3
Outcome
deal: {"issue0": "opt2", "issue1": "opt1", "issue2": "opt1", "issue3": "opt2"} (closed by consensus)
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