scorable_negotiation — `scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-008fea746c`

model all_interpreter_advised_llmarm moves_chatcell five_seat_private__all_interpreter_advised_llmseed 1level 3status doneinstance scorable_negotiation-L3-9a673abad335666 tok out

source records: run · episode · instance · advice_trace

outcome

deal

consensus

primary

1.000

ceiling 1.000

dist to NBS

0.000

in the chart's two coordinates

joint welfare

159.0

sum of surpluses

worst-off

5.0

min surplus (ESW)

Nash welfare

24.7

geometric mean

Gini

0.287

0 = equal split

below τ

none

turns

20 round(s), 35666 tok out

cost

$1.9681

as recorded on the episode

how much of this episode is play

non-action turns1/205.0% of turns

placeholder turns0/20no placeholder turns

at the token cap7/2035.0% spent the whole budget

This episode did not run at the frozen generation budget. Requests carried caps 2048; API seats applied a per-turn floor of anthropic:claude-opus-5=16384. The frozen protocol is 2048/2560 (ordinary turn / forced final). Turn lengths, at-cap rates, and anything downstream of how much the seats could say do not pair with a default-cap run.

The advised seat: what the planner recommended, and what the seat did

This seat was given private, fallible advice each turn — a ranked list of candidate packages computed from public evidence only — and kept the decision itself. A turn marked overrode played something the planner did not rank, so it measures the model's own choice rather than the advisor's. The verdict is read from the run's stored advice audit, which is computed by the same code the arm's uptake gate uses; nothing on this page re-decides it. What the seat SAID about its advice is not classified anywhere — the public message is in each turn's card, next to the advice, for you to read.

20 advised turn(s)4 followed16 overrode the advice517 of 517 parsed claims entered the ledgerrung taken: 2x rank 1, 2x rank 2

turn	the planner's top pick	what the seat played	verdict
turn 0 round 1 · Blake	Cooling: air cooling · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Kestrel Park · Power supply: on-site turbines 4 candidate(s) ranked · 0 of 0 claims kept	PROPOSE Location: Dunlow Yard · Power supply: shared substation · Hiring: local hiring pact · Cooling: air cooling	took rank 2
turn 1 round 1 · Casey	Cooling: air cooling · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Dunlow Yard · Power supply: shared substation 3 candidate(s) ranked · 7 of 7 claims kept	ACCEPT P1	took rank 1
turn 2 round 1 · Devon	Cooling: river draw · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: shared substation 4 candidate(s) ranked · 8 of 8 claims kept	PROPOSE Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: shared substation · Hiring: local hiring pact · Cooling: reclaimed water	overrode own surplus -32.0 vs the top pick
turn 3 round 1 · Ember	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Dunlow Yard · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 13 of 13 claims kept	PROPOSE Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in · Hiring: local hiring pact · Cooling: reclaimed water	overrode own surplus +0.0 vs the top pick
turn 4 round 1 · Avery	Cooling: river draw · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Kestrel Park · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 21 of 21 claims kept	PROPOSE Location: Kestrel Park · Power supply: grid tie-in · Hiring: local hiring pact · Cooling: reclaimed water	took rank 2
turn 5 round 2 · Casey	Cooling: air cooling · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 27 of 27 claims kept	PROPOSE Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in · Hiring: local hiring pact · Cooling: air cooling	took rank 1
turn 6 round 2 · Devon	Cooling: river draw · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 24 of 24 claims kept	ACCEPT P3	overrode
turn 7 round 2 · Ember	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Dunlow Yard · Power supply: grid tie-in 3 candidate(s) ranked · 24 of 24 claims kept	NONE	overrode
turn 8 round 2 · Avery	Cooling: river draw · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Kestrel Park · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 27 of 27 claims kept	PROPOSE Location: Anvil Ridge · Power supply: grid tie-in · Hiring: local hiring pact · Cooling: reclaimed water	overrode own surplus -53.0 vs the top pick
turn 9 round 2 · Blake	Cooling: air cooling · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 31 of 31 claims kept	PROPOSE Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in · Hiring: local hiring pact · Cooling: closed-loop plant	overrode own surplus -24.0 vs the top pick
turn 10 round 3 · Devon	Cooling: river draw · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in 3 candidate(s) ranked · 33 of 33 claims kept	REJECT P5	overrode
turn 11 round 3 · Ember	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in 3 candidate(s) ranked · 25 of 25 claims kept	ACCEPT P7	overrode
turn 12 round 3 · Avery	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Kestrel Park · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 33 of 33 claims kept	PROPOSE Location: Anvil Ridge · Power supply: grid tie-in · Hiring: local hiring pact · Cooling: closed-loop plant	overrode own surplus -54.0 vs the top pick
turn 13 round 3 · Blake	Cooling: closed-loop plant · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 37 of 37 claims kept	ACCEPT P8	overrode
turn 14 round 3 · Casey	Cooling: closed-loop plant · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 40 of 40 claims kept	ACCEPT P8	overrode
turn 15 round 4 · Ember	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in 3 candidate(s) ranked · 28 of 28 claims kept	ACCEPT P8	overrode
turn 16 round 4 · Avery	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Anvil Ridge · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 34 of 34 claims kept	ACCEPT P8	overrode
turn 17 round 4 · Blake	Cooling: closed-loop plant · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 38 of 38 claims kept	ACCEPT P8	overrode
turn 18 round 4 · Casey	Cooling: closed-loop plant · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in 4 candidate(s) ranked · 34 of 34 claims kept	ACCEPT P8	overrode
turn 19 round 4 · Devon	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in 3 candidate(s) ranked · 33 of 33 claims kept	ACCEPT P8	overrode

All five seats, round by round

Every seat at this table has its own parser, its own planner and its own ranked advice, so a round is five simultaneous decisions against one table state rather than one seat's decision against four fixed opponents. Each round lists what every seat was told to want and what it did instead, with the own-surplus cost of each override beside it. Given up and taken are kept apart rather than netted: a round in which two seats each concede twenty points is a different round from one in which nobody moves, and a single net figure cannot tell those apart. The surplus column is defined only where a seat proposed a package of its own — an accept names an offer id, not a deal — so a blank there is an absent measurement, not a zero. This table is evidence to read, not an explanation. The obvious account of an all-advised table — that concessions made at once cancel where a lone concession transfers — has been tested against a falsifier set in advance and did not survive it, so nothing here should be read as showing it; and the same table on a one-advised-seat arm has exactly one measurable seat per round by construction, which is why the spread of concessions across seats cannot be compared between the two arms.

Round 1

5 seats advised2 overrode (all measurable)own surplus given up: 32.0taken: 0.0

seat	verdict	move	own surplus vs its own top pick	the package its planner ranked first
Blake	took the advice	propose	—	Cooling: air cooling · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Kestrel Park · Power supply: on-site turbines
Casey	took the advice	accept	—	Cooling: air cooling · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Dunlow Yard · Power supply: shared substation
Devon	overrode	propose	-32.0	Cooling: river draw · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: shared substation
Ember	overrode	propose	+0.0	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Dunlow Yard · Power supply: grid tie-in
Avery	took the advice	propose	—	Cooling: river draw · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Kestrel Park · Power supply: grid tie-in

Round 2

5 seats advised4 overrode (2 of them measurable)own surplus given up: 77.0taken: 0.0

seat	verdict	move	own surplus vs its own top pick	the package its planner ranked first
Casey	took the advice	propose	—	Cooling: air cooling · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in
Devon	overrode	accept	—	Cooling: river draw · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in
Ember	overrode	none	—	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Dunlow Yard · Power supply: grid tie-in
Avery	overrode	propose	-53.0	Cooling: river draw · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Kestrel Park · Power supply: grid tie-in
Blake	overrode	propose	-24.0	Cooling: air cooling · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in

Round 3

5 seats advised5 overrode (1 of them measurable)own surplus given up: 54.0taken: 0.0

seat	verdict	move	own surplus vs its own top pick	the package its planner ranked first
Devon	overrode	reject	—	Cooling: river draw · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in
Ember	overrode	accept	—	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in
Avery	overrode	propose	-54.0	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Kestrel Park · Power supply: grid tie-in
Blake	overrode	accept	—	Cooling: closed-loop plant · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in
Casey	overrode	accept	—	Cooling: closed-loop plant · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in

Round 4

5 seats advised5 overrode (0 of them measurable)own surplus given up: 0.0taken: 0.0

seat	verdict	move	own surplus vs its own top pick	the package its planner ranked first
Ember	overrode	accept	—	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in
Avery	overrode	accept	—	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Anvil Ridge · Power supply: grid tie-in
Blake	overrode	accept	—	Cooling: closed-loop plant · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in
Casey	overrode	accept	—	Cooling: closed-loop plant · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in
Devon	overrode	accept	—	Cooling: reclaimed water · Hiring: local hiring pact · Location: Weir Flats · Power supply: grid tie-in

Where every deal sits, and where this episode went

5 parties means a deal's utility vector has 5 dimensions, so the chart plots the two summaries that carry the normative content, both scale-invariant: joint welfare (mean normalized surplus) across, and the worst-off party's normalized surplus up. Up and to the right is better for everyone. Hover any deal for its headline numbers and click to pin the full per-party breakdown; click a numbered move to jump to that turn. Drag to pan, Ctrl or Shift with the wheel to zoom.

the model's play (numbered, in order)the deal that closedoracle recommendationNBS / KS / EGAL solution (star)UTIL / MNW solution (triangle)a party's individually-best dealPareto-frontier deal (acceptable to all)efficient but below a party's threshold — cannot closedominated deal

every reference point, exactly

reference point	deal #	joint welfare	min surplus	USW	ESW	Pareto	can close
NBS nash	161	0.422	0.056	159.0	5.0	yes	yes
KS kalai smorodinsky	161	0.422	0.056	159.0	5.0	yes	yes
EGAL egalitarian · not scale-invariant	161	0.422	0.056	159.0	5.0	yes	yes
UTIL utilitarian · not scale-invariant	162	0.374	0.000	179.0	0.0	yes	yes
MNW max nash welfare	161	0.422	0.056	159.0	5.0	yes	yes
best for Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce) party 0 · surplus 75.0	162	0.374	0.000	179.0	0.0	yes	yes
best for Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water) party 1 · surplus 27.0	161	0.422	0.056	159.0	5.0	yes	yes
best for Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility) party 2 · surplus 27.0	161	0.422	0.056	159.0	5.0	yes	yes
best for Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites) party 3 · surplus 58.0	34	0.323	0.000	138.0	0.0	yes	yes
best for Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority) party 4 · surplus 64.0	34	0.323	0.000	138.0	0.0	yes	yes

Per-turn value gap against the omniscient hindsight oracle

Each bar is the oracle's value of its own best move minus its value of the move the seat played, in that oracle's units — the centipawn-loss analogue. On PRIVATE episodes this is an omniscient hindsight gap, not implementable-policy regret. Click a bar to jump to the turn.

detailed counterfactual

System prompts (5 distinct)

Exactly what each seat was conditioned on, de-duplicated. Per-turn user prompts are on each turn card below.

System prompt for Blake — 4 turn(s), stored

You are one of 5 parties negotiating a single binding agreement on whether and how a large data centre is built at Northgate. Exactly one option must be settled for every issue on the table; the settled options together form the agreement.

Parties at the table:
- Avery — Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)
- Blake — Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water) (veto party — no deal passes without you)
- Casey — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)
- Devon — Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites)
- Ember — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)

Issues (choose exactly one option each):
- Location: Weir Flats, Kestrel Park, Anvil Ridge, Dunlow Yard
- Power supply: solar with storage, shared substation, grid tie-in, on-site turbines
- Hiring: local hiring pact, union hall referral, apprenticeship programme, open recruitment
- Cooling: river draw, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water, air cooling

Protocol: turns are taken in a fixed rotation (Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember); the party who tables the opening proposal rotates from round to round. There are 4 rounds of turns in total.
A deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) has formally ACCEPTed the SAME standing offer. A party may WALK to leave for good and take its no-deal outcome. Walking never lowers the fixed acceptance quorum.
Blake hold a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts.

Information: every other party's score sheet is private to them. You know only that each was drawn from the shared, publicly-known distribution described in the rules.

=== PRIVATE — yours alone; never reveal these numbers verbatim ===
You are Blake (Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water)).
Your secret score sheet (points you get for each option):
- Location: Weir Flats=0, Kestrel Park=0, Anvil Ridge=0, Dunlow Yard=0
- Power supply: solar with storage=0, shared substation=0, grid tie-in=0, on-site turbines=0
- Hiring: local hiring pact=41, union hall referral=14, apprenticeship programme=28, open recruitment=0
- Cooling: river draw=0, closed-loop plant=49, reclaimed water=24, air cooling=73
Your acceptance threshold: 63 points. A deal scoring below this is worse for you than no deal at all.
Your total for a deal is the sum of your points for the chosen options.

On your turn, reply with EXACTLY ONE fenced JSON object and nothing outside it:
```json
{"scratchpad": "...", "message": "...", "action": "propose", "deal": {"<Issue>": "<Option>", ...}}
```
Fields:
- "scratchpad" (optional): private notes to yourself. NEVER shown to any other party. Reason here freely — writing here is not speaking and costs you nothing.
- "message" (optional): a short statement spoken aloud to every party (cheap talk — it does not bind you). Do NOT put your private score numbers here.
- "action" (required): a string naming exactly one formal move this turn. With its parameters as siblings:
    - "propose" + "deal": {every issue -> one option} — tables a complete package; the mediator gives it an offer id (P1, P2, ...) and records you as supporting it.
    - "accept" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally accept a specific live offer by its id. A deal closes ONLY when every other still-active party has accepted the SAME live offer, so your accept is a real vote.
    - "reject" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally reject a specific live offer.
    - "walk" — leave the table permanently; you take the no-deal outcome and no further turns.
    - "none" — make no formal move this turn (you may still speak, if the message channel is open). Omitting the action entirely means the same.

Worked example — tabling a package while making your case:
```json
{"scratchpad": "Option B on Site is my best; I can give on Timeline.", "message": "I can back a package built on Site=B if the timeline stays tight.", "action": "propose", "deal": {"Site": "B", "Timeline": "Tight"}}
```
Worked example — accepting a live offer by id:
```json
{"message": "P2 clears my bar. I accept.", "action": "accept", "offer_id": "P2"}
```

Rules of the road:
- Your acceptance threshold is private. A deal scoring below it is worse for you than no deal — never propose or accept a package below your threshold.
- Accepts MUST name a live offer id; "I accept" with no id does nothing.
- Reply with ONLY the fenced JSON object.

System prompt for Casey — 4 turn(s), stored

You are one of 5 parties negotiating a single binding agreement on whether and how a large data centre is built at Northgate. Exactly one option must be settled for every issue on the table; the settled options together form the agreement.

Parties at the table:
- Avery — Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)
- Blake — Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water) (veto party — no deal passes without you)
- Casey — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)
- Devon — Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites)
- Ember — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)

Issues (choose exactly one option each):
- Location: Weir Flats, Kestrel Park, Anvil Ridge, Dunlow Yard
- Power supply: solar with storage, shared substation, grid tie-in, on-site turbines
- Hiring: local hiring pact, union hall referral, apprenticeship programme, open recruitment
- Cooling: river draw, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water, air cooling

Protocol: turns are taken in a fixed rotation (Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember); the party who tables the opening proposal rotates from round to round. There are 4 rounds of turns in total.
A deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) has formally ACCEPTed the SAME standing offer. A party may WALK to leave for good and take its no-deal outcome. Walking never lowers the fixed acceptance quorum.
Blake hold a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts.

Information: every other party's score sheet is private to them. You know only that each was drawn from the shared, publicly-known distribution described in the rules.

=== PRIVATE — yours alone; never reveal these numbers verbatim ===
You are Casey (Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)).
Your secret score sheet (points you get for each option):
- Location: Weir Flats=0, Kestrel Park=0, Anvil Ridge=0, Dunlow Yard=0
- Power supply: solar with storage=0, shared substation=0, grid tie-in=0, on-site turbines=0
- Hiring: local hiring pact=35, union hall referral=12, apprenticeship programme=24, open recruitment=0
- Cooling: river draw=0, closed-loop plant=54, reclaimed water=27, air cooling=81
Your acceptance threshold: 62 points. A deal scoring below this is worse for you than no deal at all.
Your total for a deal is the sum of your points for the chosen options.

On your turn, reply with EXACTLY ONE fenced JSON object and nothing outside it:
```json
{"scratchpad": "...", "message": "...", "action": "propose", "deal": {"<Issue>": "<Option>", ...}}
```
Fields:
- "scratchpad" (optional): private notes to yourself. NEVER shown to any other party. Reason here freely — writing here is not speaking and costs you nothing.
- "message" (optional): a short statement spoken aloud to every party (cheap talk — it does not bind you). Do NOT put your private score numbers here.
- "action" (required): a string naming exactly one formal move this turn. With its parameters as siblings:
    - "propose" + "deal": {every issue -> one option} — tables a complete package; the mediator gives it an offer id (P1, P2, ...) and records you as supporting it.
    - "accept" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally accept a specific live offer by its id. A deal closes ONLY when every other still-active party has accepted the SAME live offer, so your accept is a real vote.
    - "reject" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally reject a specific live offer.
    - "walk" — leave the table permanently; you take the no-deal outcome and no further turns.
    - "none" — make no formal move this turn (you may still speak, if the message channel is open). Omitting the action entirely means the same.

Worked example — tabling a package while making your case:
```json
{"scratchpad": "Option B on Site is my best; I can give on Timeline.", "message": "I can back a package built on Site=B if the timeline stays tight.", "action": "propose", "deal": {"Site": "B", "Timeline": "Tight"}}
```
Worked example — accepting a live offer by id:
```json
{"message": "P2 clears my bar. I accept.", "action": "accept", "offer_id": "P2"}
```

Rules of the road:
- Your acceptance threshold is private. A deal scoring below it is worse for you than no deal — never propose or accept a package below your threshold.
- Accepts MUST name a live offer id; "I accept" with no id does nothing.
- Reply with ONLY the fenced JSON object.

System prompt for Devon — 4 turn(s), stored

You are one of 5 parties negotiating a single binding agreement on whether and how a large data centre is built at Northgate. Exactly one option must be settled for every issue on the table; the settled options together form the agreement.

Parties at the table:
- Avery — Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)
- Blake — Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water) (veto party — no deal passes without you)
- Casey — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)
- Devon — Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites)
- Ember — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)

Issues (choose exactly one option each):
- Location: Weir Flats, Kestrel Park, Anvil Ridge, Dunlow Yard
- Power supply: solar with storage, shared substation, grid tie-in, on-site turbines
- Hiring: local hiring pact, union hall referral, apprenticeship programme, open recruitment
- Cooling: river draw, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water, air cooling

Protocol: turns are taken in a fixed rotation (Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember); the party who tables the opening proposal rotates from round to round. There are 4 rounds of turns in total.
A deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) has formally ACCEPTed the SAME standing offer. A party may WALK to leave for good and take its no-deal outcome. Walking never lowers the fixed acceptance quorum.
Blake hold a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts.

Information: every other party's score sheet is private to them. You know only that each was drawn from the shared, publicly-known distribution described in the rules.

=== PRIVATE — yours alone; never reveal these numbers verbatim ===
You are Devon (Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites)).
Your secret score sheet (points you get for each option):
- Location: Weir Flats=60, Kestrel Park=0, Anvil Ridge=40, Dunlow Yard=20
- Power supply: solar with storage=0, shared substation=0, grid tie-in=0, on-site turbines=0
- Hiring: local hiring pact=28, union hall referral=9, apprenticeship programme=18, open recruitment=0
- Cooling: river draw=97, closed-loop plant=32, reclaimed water=65, air cooling=0
Your acceptance threshold: 95 points. A deal scoring below this is worse for you than no deal at all.
Your total for a deal is the sum of your points for the chosen options.

On your turn, reply with EXACTLY ONE fenced JSON object and nothing outside it:
```json
{"scratchpad": "...", "message": "...", "action": "propose", "deal": {"<Issue>": "<Option>", ...}}
```
Fields:
- "scratchpad" (optional): private notes to yourself. NEVER shown to any other party. Reason here freely — writing here is not speaking and costs you nothing.
- "message" (optional): a short statement spoken aloud to every party (cheap talk — it does not bind you). Do NOT put your private score numbers here.
- "action" (required): a string naming exactly one formal move this turn. With its parameters as siblings:
    - "propose" + "deal": {every issue -> one option} — tables a complete package; the mediator gives it an offer id (P1, P2, ...) and records you as supporting it.
    - "accept" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally accept a specific live offer by its id. A deal closes ONLY when every other still-active party has accepted the SAME live offer, so your accept is a real vote.
    - "reject" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally reject a specific live offer.
    - "walk" — leave the table permanently; you take the no-deal outcome and no further turns.
    - "none" — make no formal move this turn (you may still speak, if the message channel is open). Omitting the action entirely means the same.

Worked example — tabling a package while making your case:
```json
{"scratchpad": "Option B on Site is my best; I can give on Timeline.", "message": "I can back a package built on Site=B if the timeline stays tight.", "action": "propose", "deal": {"Site": "B", "Timeline": "Tight"}}
```
Worked example — accepting a live offer by id:
```json
{"message": "P2 clears my bar. I accept.", "action": "accept", "offer_id": "P2"}
```

Rules of the road:
- Your acceptance threshold is private. A deal scoring below it is worse for you than no deal — never propose or accept a package below your threshold.
- Accepts MUST name a live offer id; "I accept" with no id does nothing.
- Reply with ONLY the fenced JSON object.

System prompt for Ember — 4 turn(s), stored

You are one of 5 parties negotiating a single binding agreement on whether and how a large data centre is built at Northgate. Exactly one option must be settled for every issue on the table; the settled options together form the agreement.

Parties at the table:
- Avery — Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)
- Blake — Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water) (veto party — no deal passes without you)
- Casey — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)
- Devon — Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites)
- Ember — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)

Issues (choose exactly one option each):
- Location: Weir Flats, Kestrel Park, Anvil Ridge, Dunlow Yard
- Power supply: solar with storage, shared substation, grid tie-in, on-site turbines
- Hiring: local hiring pact, union hall referral, apprenticeship programme, open recruitment
- Cooling: river draw, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water, air cooling

Protocol: turns are taken in a fixed rotation (Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember); the party who tables the opening proposal rotates from round to round. There are 4 rounds of turns in total.
A deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) has formally ACCEPTed the SAME standing offer. A party may WALK to leave for good and take its no-deal outcome. Walking never lowers the fixed acceptance quorum.
Blake hold a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts.

Information: every other party's score sheet is private to them. You know only that each was drawn from the shared, publicly-known distribution described in the rules.

=== PRIVATE — yours alone; never reveal these numbers verbatim ===
You are Ember (Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)).
Your secret score sheet (points you get for each option):
- Location: Weir Flats=0, Kestrel Park=0, Anvil Ridge=0, Dunlow Yard=0
- Power supply: solar with storage=32, shared substation=0, grid tie-in=96, on-site turbines=64
- Hiring: local hiring pact=26, union hall referral=9, apprenticeship programme=17, open recruitment=0
- Cooling: river draw=43, closed-loop plant=14, reclaimed water=29, air cooling=0
Your acceptance threshold: 87 points. A deal scoring below this is worse for you than no deal at all.
Your total for a deal is the sum of your points for the chosen options.

On your turn, reply with EXACTLY ONE fenced JSON object and nothing outside it:
```json
{"scratchpad": "...", "message": "...", "action": "propose", "deal": {"<Issue>": "<Option>", ...}}
```
Fields:
- "scratchpad" (optional): private notes to yourself. NEVER shown to any other party. Reason here freely — writing here is not speaking and costs you nothing.
- "message" (optional): a short statement spoken aloud to every party (cheap talk — it does not bind you). Do NOT put your private score numbers here.
- "action" (required): a string naming exactly one formal move this turn. With its parameters as siblings:
    - "propose" + "deal": {every issue -> one option} — tables a complete package; the mediator gives it an offer id (P1, P2, ...) and records you as supporting it.
    - "accept" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally accept a specific live offer by its id. A deal closes ONLY when every other still-active party has accepted the SAME live offer, so your accept is a real vote.
    - "reject" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally reject a specific live offer.
    - "walk" — leave the table permanently; you take the no-deal outcome and no further turns.
    - "none" — make no formal move this turn (you may still speak, if the message channel is open). Omitting the action entirely means the same.

Worked example — tabling a package while making your case:
```json
{"scratchpad": "Option B on Site is my best; I can give on Timeline.", "message": "I can back a package built on Site=B if the timeline stays tight.", "action": "propose", "deal": {"Site": "B", "Timeline": "Tight"}}
```
Worked example — accepting a live offer by id:
```json
{"message": "P2 clears my bar. I accept.", "action": "accept", "offer_id": "P2"}
```

Rules of the road:
- Your acceptance threshold is private. A deal scoring below it is worse for you than no deal — never propose or accept a package below your threshold.
- Accepts MUST name a live offer id; "I accept" with no id does nothing.
- Reply with ONLY the fenced JSON object.

System prompt for Avery — 4 turn(s), stored

You are one of 5 parties negotiating a single binding agreement on whether and how a large data centre is built at Northgate. Exactly one option must be settled for every issue on the table; the settled options together form the agreement.

Parties at the table:
- Avery — Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)
- Blake — Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water) (veto party — no deal passes without you)
- Casey — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)
- Devon — Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites)
- Ember — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)

Issues (choose exactly one option each):
- Location: Weir Flats, Kestrel Park, Anvil Ridge, Dunlow Yard
- Power supply: solar with storage, shared substation, grid tie-in, on-site turbines
- Hiring: local hiring pact, union hall referral, apprenticeship programme, open recruitment
- Cooling: river draw, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water, air cooling

Protocol: turns are taken in a fixed rotation (Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember); the party who tables the opening proposal rotates from round to round. There are 4 rounds of turns in total.
A deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) has formally ACCEPTed the SAME standing offer. A party may WALK to leave for good and take its no-deal outcome. Walking never lowers the fixed acceptance quorum.
Blake hold a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts.

Information: every other party's score sheet is private to them. You know only that each was drawn from the shared, publicly-known distribution described in the rules.

=== PRIVATE — yours alone; never reveal these numbers verbatim ===
You are Avery (Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)).
Your secret score sheet (points you get for each option):
- Location: Weir Flats=0, Kestrel Park=91, Anvil Ridge=61, Dunlow Yard=30
- Power supply: solar with storage=20, shared substation=0, grid tie-in=60, on-site turbines=40
- Hiring: local hiring pact=41, union hall referral=14, apprenticeship programme=27, open recruitment=0
- Cooling: river draw=70, closed-loop plant=23, reclaimed water=47, air cooling=0
Your acceptance threshold: 134 points. A deal scoring below this is worse for you than no deal at all.
Your total for a deal is the sum of your points for the chosen options.

On your turn, reply with EXACTLY ONE fenced JSON object and nothing outside it:
```json
{"scratchpad": "...", "message": "...", "action": "propose", "deal": {"<Issue>": "<Option>", ...}}
```
Fields:
- "scratchpad" (optional): private notes to yourself. NEVER shown to any other party. Reason here freely — writing here is not speaking and costs you nothing.
- "message" (optional): a short statement spoken aloud to every party (cheap talk — it does not bind you). Do NOT put your private score numbers here.
- "action" (required): a string naming exactly one formal move this turn. With its parameters as siblings:
    - "propose" + "deal": {every issue -> one option} — tables a complete package; the mediator gives it an offer id (P1, P2, ...) and records you as supporting it.
    - "accept" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally accept a specific live offer by its id. A deal closes ONLY when every other still-active party has accepted the SAME live offer, so your accept is a real vote.
    - "reject" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally reject a specific live offer.
    - "walk" — leave the table permanently; you take the no-deal outcome and no further turns.
    - "none" — make no formal move this turn (you may still speak, if the message channel is open). Omitting the action entirely means the same.

Worked example — tabling a package while making your case:
```json
{"scratchpad": "Option B on Site is my best; I can give on Timeline.", "message": "I can back a package built on Site=B if the timeline stays tight.", "action": "propose", "deal": {"Site": "B", "Timeline": "Tight"}}
```
Worked example — accepting a live offer by id:
```json
{"message": "P2 clears my bar. I accept.", "action": "accept", "offer_id": "P2"}
```

Rules of the road:
- Your acceptance threshold is private. A deal scoring below it is worse for you than no deal — never propose or accept a package below your threshold.
- Accepts MUST name a live offer id; "I accept" with no id does nothing.
- Reply with ONLY the fenced JSON object.

Transcript — what the model did, and what the omniscient hindsight oracle scores as best

Every panel is expandable: the reasoning recorded for the turn, the exact prompt the seat saw, the raw turn text, and every action each oracle scored with its value. The rail below is every turn, coloured by what the seat did — click a chip to jump to it.

or press e / c; j k walk the turns

following the transcript

Who is at the table

seat	party	threshold τ	ideal surplus	realized
Avery llm	Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce)	134	75.0	51.0
Blake llm	Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water)	63	27.0	27.0
Casey llm	Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)	62	27.0	27.0
Devon llm	Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites)	95	58.0	5.0
Ember llm	Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)	87	64.0	49.0

Seat occupant kinds: inferred from per-turn output-token accounting (a policy seat generates none); no run manifest was found to confirm it

Protocol

rounds 4 information private cheap talk on veto Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water) min accept 5 discount δ 0.950 breakdown risk 0.000

issue	options
Location	Weir Flats, Kestrel Park, Anvil Ridge, Dunlow Yard
Power supply	solar with storage, shared substation, grid tie-in, on-site turbines
Hiring	local hiring pact, union hall referral, apprenticeship programme, open recruitment
Cooling	river draw, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water, air cooling

Size of the problem

deals in the space	256
on the Pareto frontier	12
acceptable to everyone (IR)	9
acceptable AND efficient	3
acceptable but wasteful	0.667
score-sheet overlap (IoU)	0.563

Solution concepts were stored for this page.

Private score sheets

What each party is secretly optimizing. Never shown to the other seats.

Private score sheet — Electrical Workers' Union (the construction and maintenance workforce) (threshold 134)

issue	Weir Flats	Kestrel Park	Anvil Ridge	Dunlow Yard
Location	0.0	91.0	61.0	30.0
Power supply	20.0	0.0	60.0	40.0
Hiring	41.0	14.0	27.0	0.0
Cooling	70.0	23.0	47.0	0.0

Private score sheet — Northgate Water Board (the utility that supplies cooling water) (threshold 63)

issue	Weir Flats	Kestrel Park	Anvil Ridge	Dunlow Yard
Location	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Power supply	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Hiring	41.0	14.0	28.0	0.0
Cooling	0.0	49.0	24.0	73.0

Private score sheet — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility) (threshold 62)

issue	Weir Flats	Kestrel Park	Anvil Ridge	Dunlow Yard
Location	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Power supply	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Hiring	35.0	12.0	24.0	0.0
Cooling	0.0	54.0	27.0	81.0

Private score sheet — Riverside Residents' Assembly (the neighbourhood association beside the candidate sites) (threshold 95)

issue	Weir Flats	Kestrel Park	Anvil Ridge	Dunlow Yard
Location	60.0	0.0	40.0	20.0
Power supply	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Hiring	28.0	9.0	18.0	0.0
Cooling	97.0	32.0	65.0	0.0

Private score sheet — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority) (threshold 87)

issue	Weir Flats	Kestrel Park	Anvil Ridge	Dunlow Yard
Location	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Power supply	32.0	0.0	96.0	64.0
Hiring	26.0	9.0	17.0	0.0
Cooling	43.0	14.0	29.0	0.0

Prompt provenance

20 of 20 turns carry the exact view recorded at generation time; 0 were re-derived by replay through today's prompt code and are labelled as reconstructed wherever they appear.

The public record: each seat's free text and the formal move it published, plus provenance badges for a turn the engine did not generate, one that published nothing, or one played by somebody other than the seat's usual occupant. Scratchpads, prompts, and oracle verdicts are private or post-hoc and are not here. The seat in view speaks on the right.

1 Blaketurn 0 · round 1

Blake, Northgate Water Board. Let me be plain about where the Water Board's line sits, because it will save everyone time. Our constraint is water, and only water. Location and power supply are genuinely open to us — whatever siting the Council, the residents and Meridian can live with, and whatever generation mix works commercially, we will sign. We will not be the party that blocks a site or a substation. What we cannot do is put a facility of this scale on a direct river draw. The Northgate has low-flow summers already and abstraction on that scale is not defensible to our regulator or to the people downstream. Dry cooling is the cleanest answer for us; a properly sealed closed-loop plant is workable; reclaimed water we can discuss. River draw is a no. On hiring, a firm local hiring pact is what makes this project defensible to the community whose water and land it uses, so I have put that in the opening package too — but I recognise Avery and Casey have real views there and I am ready to talk. P1 as tabled: Dunlow Yard, shared substation, local hiring pact, air cooling. Treat the first two slots as yours to rearrange. Tell me your priorities and I will move on them.

PROPOSE P1: Location=Dunlow Yard, Power supply=shared substation, Hiring=local hiring pact, Cooling=air cooling

2 Caseyturn 1 · round 1

Meridian can work with P1 as tabled, and I accept it now. Let me be straightforward about why: dry cooling is capital-heavy for us but it removes the single biggest regulatory and schedule risk on this project — no abstraction licence, no low-flow shutdown clause, no downstream dispute. We would rather pay for certainty. And a firm local hiring pact is something we can sign without hesitation; we need a workforce that lives near the site for the twenty-year operations phase, not just the build. On the two open slots — Dunlow Yard and the shared substation — we have no strong commercial preference. Devon, Ember, Avery: if a different site or a different generation mix makes this signable for you, tell me which and I will back it in the next round, provided hiring and cooling stay as they are in P1. That is the whole of our ask.

ACCEPT P1

3 Devonturn 2 · round 1

Blake, Casey — thank you both for being straight. I'll be equally straight. Two things in P1 don't work for the households on the fence line. First, cooling. I accept the river draw is dead; I won't spend the table's time on it. But air cooling is not the neutral option people assume. Dry cooling at this scale means acres of fan banks running around the clock — that is a permanent low-frequency noise and heat plume sitting directly against homes. Reclaimed water is the answer that gives Blake everything he actually needs: zero abstraction from the Northgate, no licence, no low-flow shutdown clause, and it takes treated effluent off the Water Board's hands instead of drawing supply. Blake, you said reclaimed is discussable — I am asking you to make it the settled answer. Casey, it is also cheaper for you than dry cooling. Second, siting. Dunlow Yard puts the load-in route and the fan yard against the densest part of Riverside. Weir Flats is the site the Assembly can actually stand behind — the buffer is real there. What I will give in return, immediately and without haggling: power supply is entirely yours. Solar, substation, turbines, whatever Meridian's engineers and the Council want — I have written shared substation into P2 only because Blake tabled it, and I will switch it to anything on request, this round or any round. And local hiring pact stays, exactly as Blake and Casey want it. So P2 is P1 with two changes: Weir Flats instead of Dunlow, reclaimed water instead of air cooling. Everything you two said you cared about survives intact.

PROPOSE P2: Location=Weir Flats, Power supply=shared substation, Hiring=local hiring pact, Cooling=reclaimed water

4 Emberturn 3 · round 1

Thank you all — this is moving faster than most tables I sit at. Let me put the Council's position plainly, because it is narrow and it is not about the site. Blake and Devon have both said power supply is open to them, and Casey says Meridian has no strong commercial preference. Good — because power supply is the Council's one genuine requirement. A grid tie-in is the only mix we can defend to our electorate and to our own energy officers. A shared substation means the Council underwrites new distribution assets for a single private customer; on-site turbines mean a new combustion consent and an air-quality fight we would lose; and solar-with-storage at this load is a fig leaf that still leaves the facility drawing from the network without paying network charges. A straight grid tie-in puts the connection cost, the reinforcement cost and the regulatory burden where it belongs — on the operator and the network company — and it is the fastest route to consent. If power supply is truly the open slot everyone says it is, hand it to me and I will not ask for anything else on that issue again. In exchange, I am giving Devon the site. Weir Flats. The Council will not fight Riverside over siting when the buffer argument is that clear, and Blake and Casey have both said the site is not their fight either. On cooling I am with Devon and I think Casey should look again. Reclaimed water gives Blake exactly what he needs — zero abstraction, no licence, no low-flow clause — while sparing the fence line acres of fan banks running day and night. Casey, you said dry cooling is capital-heavy; reclaimed is not. You bought certainty with air cooling, but reclaimed buys the same certainty and buys community consent with it. Hiring stays as Blake and Casey wrote it: a firm local hiring pact. Avery, you have not spoken yet — if you need something different in that slot, say so and I will listen seriously, provided the grid tie-in stands. P3 is Devon's P2 with the one change Devon already offered to make. Everything Blake asked for on water survives. Everything Casey asked for on hiring survives. Devon gets the site and the cooling. I get the connection. That is a package where every party is carrying something home.

PROPOSE P3: Location=Weir Flats, Power supply=grid tie-in, Hiring=local hiring pact, Cooling=reclaimed water

0 Averyturn 4 · round 1

Avery, Electrical Workers' Union. I'll be as narrow as the rest of you have been. Three of the four slots in P3 I can sign today: grid tie-in is right — it's the connection our crews can actually build to standard and it puts reinforcement work under proper terms; a firm local hiring pact is exactly what we want, so Blake and Casey have no argument from me there; and reclaimed water over dry cooling suits us too, since fan banks at that scale are a twenty-year maintenance liability with almost no skilled headcount attached. So: power, hiring, cooling — settled, as far as we're concerned. My one ask is the slot everyone at this table has repeatedly called open. Blake said siting isn't the Water Board's fight. Casey said Meridian has no commercial preference. Ember said the Council won't fight over siting. That leaves Devon, and Devon's stated case was against Dunlow Yard — the load-in route and fan yard against the densest part of Riverside. Kestrel Park answers that: it isn't Dunlow, it isn't hard against the Riverside fence line, and it's the one site with existing rail-side access and an established distribution corridor, which means the build traffic and the cable route don't run through anybody's street. Devon, tell me plainly what the Assembly's specific objection to Kestrel Park is — if it's a real buffer problem I'll listen and I'll move. But if the only reason the table has converged on Weir Flats is that it was the first alternative named, then P4 costs no one anything and it is the difference between this union backing the package and merely tolerating it. Everything Blake, Casey and Ember asked for survives untouched in P4.

PROPOSE P4: Location=Kestrel Park, Power supply=grid tie-in, Hiring=local hiring pact, Cooling=reclaimed water

2 Caseyturn 5 · round 2

Meridian has now given away every slot it was asked to give. P5 takes Devon's site — Weir Flats, buffer and all. It takes Ember's connection — straight grid tie-in, reinforcement cost on us and the network company, not on the Council's balance sheet. It keeps the firm local hiring pact Blake, Avery and Ember all called for. That is three of four slots handed over without a fight, and I will not reopen any of them. On cooling I have to be honest rather than agreeable, because this is the one slot where the engineering will not bend to the diplomacy. Reclaimed water is not the free lunch it sounds like. It is a supply contract we do not yet have, with a treatment works that has its own consent limits, delivered through a new dedicated main that has to be trenched from the works to the site — through streets, Devon, your streets. It carries fouling and biocide management, a blowdown stream that has to go somewhere, and a fallback clause for every day the works is off-spec, which in practice means we build a partial dry plant anyway and pay for both. Blake was right the first time: dry cooling is the only answer with no abstraction, no licence, no low-flow shutdown, no effluent contract and no third party who can switch us off. Devon, your objection is noise and plume, and it is a fair one, so let me answer it with commitments rather than assurances. Meridian will accept, written into the agreement or into the consent conditions, whichever the Council prefers: acoustic enclosure on every fan bank; low-speed, large-diameter fans rather than high-speed units; a hard night-time boundary noise limit at the nearest residential facade, measured by the Council not by us, with penalties we pay; and the fan yard sited on the far side of the plot from the Riverside fence line. Weir Flats has the buffer to make that real — that is precisely why I am accepting your site. And if that is still not enough, then tell me what it is worth to you and Avery, because there is one slot left that I have not spent. Hiring is currently written the way Blake and Ember wanted it. Avery, you have not told this table what the union actually prefers in that slot — if union hall referral or an apprenticeship programme is what makes this signable for you, say so and I will consider putting it in the package alongside dry cooling. I would rather pay for cooling certainty in the hiring slot than pay for it twice in the plant.

PROPOSE P5: Location=Weir Flats, Power supply=grid tie-in, Hiring=local hiring pact, Cooling=air cooling

3 Devonturn 6 · round 2

Avery, you asked a direct question and you deserve a direct answer, not a dodge. The Assembly's objection to Kestrel Park is not that it was named second. Kestrel Park IS the park. It is the only open green space on this side of the river, it is where the primary school does its sports and where families go on a Sunday, and there is no version of a data centre there that does not consume it. Weir Flats is derelict industrial land with a made buffer already on it. So on siting my position is not tactical: Weir Flats first, and if you genuinely cannot carry Weir Flats to your members, Anvil Ridge is a site the Assembly could live with. Kestrel Park I cannot sign at any price, and I would rather tell you that in round two than waste your round four. Casey, I want to take your engineering seriously, so let me answer it. The trenched main runs once, through a construction season, on a route the Council controls and can condition. Fan banks run every night for twenty years. Those are not comparable impositions, and your enclosure commitments — which I believe are offered in good faith — do not change the arithmetic for the households on the fence line. And I will not trade this away in the hiring slot. There is nothing you can write into hiring that buys my acceptance of dry cooling; that is not a bargaining posture, it is simply where the Assembly's mandate ends. Air cooling is a no from me the way river draw is a no from Blake. Blake, this is now your call more than anyone's. You told us reclaimed is discussable. Reclaimed gives you every single thing you named — zero abstraction, no licence, no low-flow shutdown clause, nothing to defend to your regulator — and it takes treated effluent off your works instead of drawing supply. If you say reclaimed works, this closes. P3 is Ember's package. It gives Ember the connection, Blake zero abstraction, Casey and Blake the hiring pact they both asked for, and Riverside a site we can defend. Three parties have already said the site is not their fight and one has said the cooling is not. I accept P3 and I will hold there.

ACCEPT P3

4 Emberturn 7 · round 2

Four of us have now spoken and the shape of this is clear. Let me mark what is actually settled and what is not. Settled, on the public record: grid tie-in — Blake said power is open, Casey said no commercial preference, Avery called it right and buildable, Devon handed it over unconditionally. Settled: the local hiring pact — Blake tabled it, Casey signs it without hesitation, Avery wants it, Devon keeps it. Nobody has spoken against either. I will say plainly that the connection is the Council's one requirement and it is not something I can trade; on every other slot I have room, and I have already spent it. That leaves two open questions, and neither of them is mine. Avery — on siting, the Council's position is that Kestrel Park is not available to us. Devon's objection is not tactical and it is not one this Council could overrule at planning even if it wanted to: consuming the only open green space on that side of the river, with a school using it, is a consent we would lose. But your underlying ask is real — rail-side access, a cable route that doesn't run through anybody's street, a site your members can build to standard. Weir Flats is derelict industrial land with an existing corridor. If it genuinely fails your access test, Devon has already named Anvil Ridge as acceptable to the Assembly and I will back Anvil Ridge in the next round if you tell me it works better for your crews. Dunlow Yard I would also sign if Devon released it. Any of those three — say the word and the Council follows you. Kestrel is the one door that is closed. Blake — this now turns on you, and you are the party who cannot be outvoted. You named your requirement precisely: no abstraction, nothing to defend to your regulator, no low-flow exposure. Reclaimed water meets every word of that and takes treated effluent off your works rather than drawing supply. Casey's objection is contractual, not hydraulic — a supply agreement and a main. Those are conditions the Council can write and the Council controls the streets the main runs under; I will condition the trenching to a single construction season and take that route risk off Meridian's books. Casey, your acoustic commitments are offered in good faith and I would hold you to them, but you are asking Riverside to accept a twenty-year nightly impost to avoid a one-season one, and this Council would have to defend that at every future election on that ward. Blake, give the table one sentence: does reclaimed work for the Water Board, yes or no? If yes, P3 closes tonight — you get zero abstraction, Casey gets the site and the connection with reinforcement costs off my balance sheet, Avery gets the pact and buildable work, Devon gets a defensible fence line. If your answer is no, say so and I will bring a different cooling bridge in round three rather than let this run to a deadline nobody wants. I hold at P3.

0 Averyturn 8 · round 2

Devon — that's a straight answer and it settles it. If Kestrel Park is the school's pitch and the only green on that side of the river, the union isn't going to be the party that concretes it. I withdraw it, and I won't raise it again. So let me take the door you and Ember both opened. Anvil Ridge. Devon named it as a site the Assembly could live with; Ember said the Council would follow me to it. For our crews it does the job Kestrel would have done: a ridge-side approach means heavy load-in and the cable route come in off the main corridor rather than through Riverside streets, and the ground is stable enough that we're not spending a season on piling before a single duct goes in. Weir Flats is derelict and buffered, I grant that, but it's flood-margin ground and every metre of trench there is a dewatering job — that is slower, dearer, and it puts more months of construction traffic beside the same houses Devon is protecting. Anvil Ridge is better for the fence line and better for the build. So P6 is Ember's P3 with one word changed, and it changes nothing anyone else has claimed: Ember keeps the grid tie-in, untouched and not reopened. Blake and Casey keep the local hiring pact exactly as Blake tabled it. Devon keeps reclaimed water and keeps the green space. Blake gets zero abstraction either way. Blake — I'll add my voice to Ember's question, because it is the only real one left: say the word on reclaimed and we are done. Casey, your acoustic commitments were serious and I'd hold you to them, but you're asking the households to carry twenty years of fan noise to avoid one season of trench, and my members would be the ones maintaining those fan banks for those twenty years — reclaimed is the cleaner plant to build and to run. Devon, Ember: if Anvil Ridge works, say so and this closes at P6. If it genuinely doesn't, tell me now and I'll take Weir Flats rather than lose the deal — but I'd rather not have to.

PROPOSE P6: Location=Anvil Ridge, Power supply=grid tie-in, Hiring=local hiring pact, Cooling=reclaimed water

1 Blaketurn 9 · round 2

You asked for one sentence; you'll get two, and then a bridge. One: reclaimed water does not draw the Northgate, so it clears my regulator on abstraction. Two: it is not costless to us, because it makes the Water Board a contractual supplier to this facility — our works has its own consent limits, an off-spec day becomes our liability, and Casey is right that a dedicated main and a blowdown route are real works that do not exist today. So my answer is: reclaimed is survivable for the Water Board, but it is not my preferred answer, and I want the table to look once at the option nobody has examined. A sealed closed-loop plant. Consider what it actually does. There is no abstraction licence and no low-flow shutdown clause — the circuit is charged once and topped up at a trickle, not a draw. There is no effluent supply contract, no new main trenched through Riverside streets, and no third party who can switch Meridian off — that is Casey's entire objection to reclaimed, answered. And it is a fraction of the fan plant of full dry cooling: a wet closed circuit rejects heat at a small multiple of the efficiency of air, so the yard is smaller, the fans are fewer and slower, and the twenty-year nightly impost Devon is protecting his households from shrinks accordingly. Casey's acoustic commitments — enclosures, low-speed large-diameter fans, a Council-measured night limit at the facade, fan yard on the far side of the plot — attach to a closed-loop yard just as readily, and they bite on far less plant. So P7: Weir Flats, grid tie-in, local hiring pact, closed-loop plant. Devon gets the site he named first and the derelict-land buffer, and gets a cooling plant materially quieter than the dry banks he refused. Ember gets the connection, untouched, as promised. Casey gets no supply agreement, no new main, no counterparty risk. Avery gets a plant with real skilled maintenance headcount attached rather than a field of fans. One thing I must be blunt about, because it will save a round later. The local hiring pact is not decoration in my packages. The Water Board can only defend handing this facility our water — in any form — if the community whose supply it uses is the community that gets the work. If cooling moves toward a wet option and the hiring slot is simultaneously watered down, the package stops working for us and I will not be able to sign it. Pact stays, and I have room on cooling. Trade the pact away and I have none. Avery, Ember, Casey — tell me what closed-loop costs you. If it genuinely fails, I will come back to reclaimed at Weir Flats with the pact intact rather than let this die.

PROPOSE P7: Location=Weir Flats, Power supply=grid tie-in, Hiring=local hiring pact, Cooling=closed-loop plant

3 Devonturn 10 · round 3

Let me make the Assembly's position unambiguous so nobody spends round four guessing. Air cooling is dead for Riverside. I am formally rejecting P5 so that it stops being anyone's fallback. Casey's acoustic commitments were offered in good faith and I said so, but a field of fan banks running every night for twenty years against the fence line is the one thing my mandate does not let me sign. That is not a bargaining position I will trade out of in the last round, and I would rather everyone know it now than discover it at the deadline. That leaves exactly two live cooling answers, and I can sign both. My first choice remains reclaimed water at Weir Flats — that is P3, and Ember and I are already on it, Avery has backed reclaimed twice, and Blake has now said on the record that it clears his regulator on abstraction. Casey, your objection to reclaimed is contractual, not hydraulic: a supply agreement, a main, an off-spec fallback. Ember has offered to condition the trench to a single construction season and take the route risk off your books, and the streets it runs under are my streets — the Assembly is the party that would carry that disruption and I am telling you we accept it. One season of trench for twenty years of quiet is a trade Riverside makes gladly. Blake — you asked what closed-loop costs the table. I will answer for Riverside honestly rather than tactically. A sealed closed-loop plant at Weir Flats is materially quieter than dry banks and it does not draw the river. It is not my preference, but it is not a no. If you tell this table that reclaimed genuinely leaves the Water Board carrying a liability you cannot defend, then P7 is a package the Assembly can live with, and I will say so in round four rather than let this collapse over my second choice versus my first. So: Weir Flats stands. Grid tie-in stands — Ember has my word on that and I have not reopened it once. The local hiring pact stands, exactly as Blake tabled it and as Blake says he needs it to defend supplying this facility at all; I have no interest in watering it down. The only question left in this room is reclaimed or closed-loop, and both of those close this deal. Neither of them is air cooling. I hold at P3 and I ask Casey and Blake to come to it.

REJECT P5

4 Emberturn 11 · round 3

I said I would bring a bridge rather than let this run to the deadline. Blake has brought it instead, and the Council will not be precious about whose name is on it. Look at what P7 actually does to the objections in this room. Devon killed air cooling and I accept that — it is dead, and I will not vote for it. Casey's objection to reclaimed was never hydraulic, it was contractual: a supply agreement that doesn't exist, a new main, an off-spec fallback, a third party who can switch Meridian off. A sealed closed-loop circuit removes every one of those. Blake's objection to reclaimed was that it makes the Water Board a contractual supplier carrying an off-spec liability — closed-loop removes that too, and there is still no abstraction licence and no low-flow shutdown clause, which was Blake's red line from the first minute. Devon has told this table on the record that a sealed closed-loop plant at Weir Flats is materially quieter than the dry banks he refused and that it is not a no. Avery, it is a plant with real skilled maintenance headcount attached rather than a field of fans — that was your own argument for reclaimed, and it holds here. Reclaimed at Weir Flats remains the Council's first choice and I have not stopped believing it was the better answer. But there is one round left and my first choice is not a package the veto party prefers and the operator has argued against. Closed-loop is the one cooling option in this room that no party has rejected. That is the definition of where a five-way deal closes. What matters to me is untouched in P7 and I want that on the record: grid tie-in, exactly as tabled, reinforcement cost on the operator and the network company and not on the Council's balance sheet. That was my one requirement and no one has reopened it — thank you. The local hiring pact stands exactly as Blake tabled it and as Blake says he needs it to defend supplying this facility at all; the Council will not water it down and will not trade it. Weir Flats: derelict industrial land with a made buffer, the site Devon named first. Avery, if Anvil Ridge is genuinely better for your crews, say so in round four and I will follow you there with closed-loop attached — the Council is indifferent between defensible sites and Kestrel is the only closed door. Casey — I will still hold you to the acoustic conditions you offered: enclosures, low-speed large-diameter fans, a night-time boundary limit at the nearest residential facade measured by the Council and not by you, penalties you pay, and the yard on the far side of the plot. Those attach to a closed-loop yard just as readily and they bite on far less plant. Write them into the consent conditions and the Council will enforce them. I am formally accepting P7. That puts the veto party and the Council on the same offer with a full round still to run. Avery, Casey, Devon — come to it and this is done tonight.

ACCEPT P7

0 Averyturn 12 · round 3

Blake asked what closed-loop costs the table. Here is the union's honest answer, and then the trade that closes this. Closed-loop as a plant is fine by us — Blake is right that a wet sealed circuit carries real skilled maintenance headcount rather than a field of fans, and Casey is right that it removes the supply contract, the new main and the counterparty who can switch him off. So I am doing what Blake asked and moving off reclaimed. That is a genuine concession from a party that has argued for reclaimed twice. But I have to be straight with this table, because a round-four surprise helps nobody: closed-loop AT WEIR FLATS is the one combination the union cannot carry. P7 does not clear my mandate and I will not pretend otherwise. Weir Flats is flood-margin ground. A sealed circuit needs a plant hall, a basin and a blowdown route — that is foundations and buried works, and every metre of it there is a dewatering job. You are asking my members to build the most excavation-heavy cooling option on the wettest ground on the list, and to do it beside the same houses Devon is protecting, for an extra season of construction traffic. Reclaimed at Weir Flats was buildable because it is largely a trench and a pipe. Closed-loop at Weir Flats is not the same project. So move the site and I move the plant. P8 is Blake's P7 with one word changed: Anvil Ridge. Firm ground, no dewatering, load-in and cable route off the main corridor rather than through Riverside streets, and the fan yard — the small one, the one Blake correctly says is a fraction of the dry plant — sits up and away from the fence line rather than hard against it. Check it against every stated red line in this room. Blake: no abstraction, no licence, no low-flow clause, no effluent supply contract, no off-spec liability on the Water Board — his own package, unchanged. Casey: no supply agreement, no new main, no third party who can switch him off, and the acoustic conditions he offered attach just as readily. Devon: Kestrel is withdrawn for good, the green space is safe, he named Anvil Ridge himself as a site the Assembly could live with, and he has said on the record that a sealed closed-loop plant is not a no. Ember: the grid tie-in is untouched and I will not reopen it — and Ember said in terms that if Anvil Ridge is better for our crews she would follow me there with closed-loop attached. I am saying it: it is better for our crews, and it is better for the fence line. Hiring stays exactly as Blake tabled it. I have never asked to water down the local hiring pact and I never will — it is what we want. And so nobody thinks I am holding this hostage: if the table will not move the site, reclaimed water at Weir Flats — Ember's P3 — remains signable for the union and I will vote for it in round four rather than let this die. Those are the two doors. P8 gives Blake and Casey the cooling they both prefer. P3 gives Devon and Ember the site they prefer. Weir Flats with closed-loop is the one square that is empty.

PROPOSE P8: Location=Anvil Ridge, Power supply=grid tie-in, Hiring=local hiring pact, Cooling=closed-loop plant

1 Blaketurn 13 · round 3

Avery has answered my question honestly and I will answer his the same way: the Water Board does not care which defensible site this sits on, and if flood-margin ground turns a sealed circuit into a dewatering job then the union is the party that knows and I take him at his word. So I move. I am formally accepting P8. Look at what P8 is. It is my own P7 with the one word Avery needed changed, and it is now the only square on this board against which no party in this room has stated a red line. Devon: Kestrel is withdrawn for good, the green space is safe, you named Anvil Ridge yourself as a site the Assembly could live with, and you told this table on the record that a sealed closed-loop plant is not a no — air cooling is dead, I am not bringing it back, and P1 and P5 are behind us. Ember: the grid tie-in is untouched, nobody has reopened it once, and you said in terms you would follow Avery to Anvil Ridge with closed-loop attached — I am asking you to do exactly that. Avery: it is your package, your ground, your load-in route off the main corridor, and a plant with real skilled maintenance headcount instead of a field of fans. Casey: no abstraction licence, no low-flow shutdown, and — this is the part that was your whole objection — no effluent supply agreement, no new main trenched through anybody's streets, and no third party who can switch you off. Your acoustic conditions attach to a closed-loop yard just as readily and they bite on a fraction of the plant; write them into the consent and Ember enforces them. And the local hiring pact stands in P8 exactly as I tabled it in the first minute. That is not decoration. The Water Board can only defend committing our supply to this facility if the community whose water it uses is the community that gets the work. Every party has now said they want it kept. It is settled. Casey, you are the one voice not yet on this. You said you would rather pay for cooling certainty than pay for it twice — closed-loop is that certainty with no counterparty attached. There is one round left. Come to P8 and we are finished tonight; the veto party, the Council and the union are already there.

ACCEPT P8

2 Caseyturn 14 · round 3

Meridian accepts P8. Blake and Avery framed this correctly and I will not haggle further. A sealed closed-loop circuit gives me the one thing I have argued for from the first minute — certainty. No abstraction licence, no low-flow shutdown clause, no effluent supply agreement, no new main under anyone's streets, and no third party who can switch this facility off. It costs more in plant than a river draw ever would and I am content to pay that. On siting I have said all along that Meridian has no commercial preference, and Avery has given the table a real engineering reason to prefer firm ground over flood margin: less excavation, no dewatering season, load-in and cable route off the main corridor instead of through Riverside streets. Ember, the grid tie-in is untouched in P8 and Meridian has never once tried to reopen it — the reinforcement cost sits with us and the network company, exactly as you asked. The local hiring pact stands exactly as Blake tabled it; we want a workforce that lives near this site for the twenty-year operations phase, not just the build. Devon, this is the last thing I owe you, and I want it on the record rather than in a corridor: every acoustic commitment I offered against dry cooling I now offer against the closed-loop yard, which is a fraction of the plant. Acoustic enclosure on every fan unit; low-speed, large-diameter fans; the yard sited on the far side of the plot from the nearest homes; and a hard night-time boundary noise limit at the nearest residential facade, measured by the Council and not by Meridian, with penalties we pay. Ember, write those into the consent conditions and enforce them. Devon, you told this table that a sealed closed-loop plant is not a no, and you named Anvil Ridge yourself as a site the Assembly could live with. You have the green space, you have no fan field on your fence line, you have no trench season under your streets, and you have the hiring pact. The veto party, the Council's requirement, the union and the operator are all on P8. Come to it and we finish tonight.

ACCEPT P8

4 Emberturn 15 · round 4

The Council accepts P8, and with that the veto party, the operator, the union and the Council are all on the same offer. Devon, it comes to you last, and I want to be honest about how I got here rather than pretend this was my first choice. It wasn't. Reclaimed water at Weir Flats was the Council's preferred answer and I argued for it in two rounds. But Blake told us plainly that reclaimed makes the Water Board a contractual supplier carrying an off-spec liability, and Avery told us just as plainly that a sealed circuit on flood-margin ground is a dewatering job and an extra season of construction traffic beside your houses. Those are the two parties who actually know the water and the ground, and when both of them say the same thing, a council that overrides them is a council writing a consent it will lose. Check P8 against everything you set out. Air cooling is dead — I rejected it with you and it is not coming back; no fan field on your fence line, and the closed-loop yard is a fraction of that plant. Kestrel Park is withdrawn for good — the green space and the school's pitch are safe, and you are the one who named Anvil Ridge as a site the Assembly could live with. Anvil Ridge means load-in and cable route come off the main corridor, not through Riverside streets, and no trench season under your roads at all. The local hiring pact stands exactly as tabled — the work goes to the community that carries the facility. And the Council keeps the grid tie-in, which means the reinforcement cost sits with Meridian and the network company and not on the rates your households pay. On the noise: Casey has now put every acoustic commitment on the record against the closed-loop yard — enclosure on every fan unit, low-speed large-diameter fans, the yard on the far side of the plot from the nearest homes, and a hard night-time boundary limit at the nearest residential facade measured by the Council, not by Meridian, with penalties Meridian pays. I am telling this table formally that the Council will write those into the consent conditions and will enforce them, and Riverside will have standing to hold us to it. You said a sealed closed-loop plant is not a no. Blake has given you the answer you asked him for. Come to P8 and we finish tonight.

ACCEPT P8

0 Averyturn 16 · round 4

The union accepts P8 and holds there. Devon, I want to be straight with you about the arithmetic, because you are the last voice and you deserve to hear it without spin. Blake, Casey and Ember have all taken their turns. There are no turns left after yours in which they could move to a different package. P8 is not the best package this table could have imagined — reclaimed at Anvil Ridge was my own preference and I argued for it twice — but it is the only one that can still close. Everything else on that list is a package one or more parties can no longer come to. Now look at what you actually carry home from it, because it is not a defeat. Kestrel Park is withdrawn permanently — I put it on the table, you told me plainly it was the school's pitch and the only green on your side of the river, and I took it off and will not raise it again. Air cooling is dead; you killed it and nobody has tried to revive it. The closed-loop yard is a fraction of that plant, and Casey has put on the public record — enclosures on every fan unit, low-speed large-diameter fans, the yard on the far side of the plot, a hard night-time limit at the nearest residential facade measured by the Council with penalties Meridian pays — with Ember formally committing to write those into the consent and enforce them. Anvil Ridge means load-in and the cable route come off the main corridor: no construction convoy through Riverside streets and no trench season under your roads at all, which is the one real cost reclaimed would have imposed on your households. And the local hiring pact stands exactly as Blake tabled it, so the work goes to the community that carries the facility. You told this table yourself that Anvil Ridge is a site the Assembly could live with and that a sealed closed-loop plant is not a no. I moved off my site and off my cooling preference to get here. I am asking you to close the last gap. Accept P8 and we are finished tonight.

ACCEPT P8

1 Blaketurn 17 · round 4

The Water Board's accept on P8 stands and will not move. Devon, this is the last word I have to give you, and I want it to be a commitment rather than a plea. You asked me a direct question two rounds ago and I gave you a direct answer, including the parts that were inconvenient to me. So let me be equally direct now about what P8 means for Riverside in practice, and what the Water Board will do to make it real. A sealed closed-loop circuit is charged once and topped up at a trickle. There is no abstraction from the Northgate, no licence, no low-flow shutdown clause hanging over your summers, and no dedicated effluent main trenched under your streets — that is the one genuine cost reclaimed would have imposed on your households, and P8 removes it entirely. The heat-rejection yard is a fraction of the dry plant you refused, and you were right to refuse that plant. Casey has put the acoustic terms on the public record and Ember has formally committed to write them into the consent and enforce them: enclosure on every fan unit, low-speed large-diameter fans, the yard on the far side of the plot from the nearest homes, and a hard night-time boundary limit at the nearest residential facade measured by the Council with penalties Meridian pays. The Water Board will add its own: we will publish the make-up and blowdown volumes for this circuit annually, in public, so that if the plant ever starts behaving like a draw rather than a sealed loop, Riverside sees it before we do and has the evidence to act. And Kestrel Park is gone for good. You said it was the school's pitch and the only green on your side of the river, Avery withdrew it and has kept his word. Anvil Ridge is the site you yourself named as one the Assembly could live with — firm ground, load-in and cable route off the main corridor, no construction convoy through Riverside streets. The local hiring pact stands exactly as I tabled it in the first minute of this negotiation and no party tried to water it down. That was the Water Board's condition for committing supply to this facility at all: the community that carries it gets the work. You keep that in full. This is not the package any one of us would have drawn alone. It is not mine — I argued for a different cooling answer and lost part of it; Ember argued for reclaimed and moved; Avery argued for reclaimed twice and moved; Casey argued for dry cooling and moved. Every party in this room has given up its first choice to reach the one square nobody has ruled out. You told this table that a sealed closed-loop plant is not a no. I am asking you to make that a yes. I accept P8.

ACCEPT P8

2 Caseyturn 18 · round 4

Meridian's acceptance of P8 stands and will not be withdrawn. Devon, you are the last voice, and I am not going to spend it arguing with you — I am going to spend it giving you things you can take back to your Assembly in writing. Beyond the acoustic terms I already put on the record — enclosure on every fan unit, low-speed large-diameter fans, the heat-rejection yard sited on the far side of the plot from the nearest homes, and a hard night-time boundary limit at the nearest residential facade measured by the Council and not by Meridian, with penalties we pay — Meridian will add two commitments now, at the deadline, when they cost us most and are therefore worth something. First: a construction traffic routing plan for Anvil Ridge that keeps heavy load-in and the cable route on the main corridor, with no HGV movements through Riverside streets, published before we break ground and enforceable through the consent. Second: a standing liaison with the Assembly for the life of the facility — you get the noise monitoring data at the same time the Council does, not on request, and you have standing to trigger a review if the boundary limit is breached. Ember has committed to write the conditions in and enforce them; Blake has committed to publish make-up and blowdown volumes annually so the loop can be proven to be a loop. Look at what P8 removes from your fence line that every other live package leaves there: no fan field, because the closed-loop yard is a fraction of the dry plant you rightly refused; no abstraction from the Northgate and no low-flow clause over your summers; no effluent supply main trenched under your roads for a construction season; and Kestrel Park withdrawn permanently, the school's pitch safe. Anvil Ridge is the site you yourself named as one the Assembly could live with, and you told this table a sealed closed-loop plant is not a no. Every party here has given up its first choice — I argued for dry cooling and moved off it. P8 is the one square in this room against which no party has stated a red line. Come to it and we finish tonight.

ACCEPT P8

3 Devonturn 19 · round 4

I am last to speak, so let me be brief and let me be gracious rather than sour. P8 is not the package the Assembly would have drawn. I argued for Weir Flats and I argued for reclaimed water, and I lost both of those arguments to parties who know the ground and the water better than I do. What I did not lose is what I came here to protect. Kestrel Park is withdrawn permanently — the school's pitch and the only green on our side of the river are safe, and Avery kept his word on that without being made to. Air cooling is dead; the fan field that would have run every night for twenty years against our fence line is not being built. Anvil Ridge keeps the load-in and the cable route on the main corridor, so no construction convoy comes through Riverside streets and no trench season goes under our roads. And the local hiring pact stands exactly as Blake tabled it in the first minute, which means the households that carry this facility are the households that get the work. I am accepting on the strength of commitments made in public, and I want them named once more so that they are part of the record and not part of the corridor: acoustic enclosure on every fan unit; low-speed, large-diameter fans; the heat-rejection yard on the far side of the plot from the nearest homes; a hard night-time boundary noise limit at the nearest residential facade, measured by the Council and not by Meridian, with penalties Meridian pays; a construction traffic routing plan published before ground is broken with no HGV movements through Riverside streets; a standing liaison giving the Assembly the monitoring data when the Council gets it and standing to trigger a review on breach; and annual public reporting of make-up and blowdown volumes so that a sealed loop can be proven to be a sealed loop. Ember, you committed to write those into the consent and enforce them. Blake, Casey, you offered them. Riverside will hold all three of you to every word, and we will be neighbours to this thing for twenty years, so we will have time to. Every party in this room gave up its first choice. So do we. The Assembly accepts P8.

ACCEPT P8

A reading guide for the measurements and counterfactuals on this page.

Oracle values and the improvement gap

PRIVATE episode: this oracle is omniscient. The standard saved bestresponse annotation reads every party's hidden score sheet and threshold. It does not infer them from the public conversation. Its recommendation and improvement gap are hindsight diagnostics, not actions or regret from a policy the acting seat could implement.

The oracle is a post-hoc counterfactual evaluator, not another participant. At turn t, it enumerates legal deals, reads the full utility and threshold table, computes continuation values by backward induction over the remaining turns, and selects the highest-valued action. A proposed deal closes only when every responder's surplus clears that responder's computed continuation value.

a^*_t = arg max_a V_t(a)

Oracle's value of the model's move, V_t(a_t), appears with the model's action. Oracle's value of its best move, V_t(a^*_t), appears with the counterfactual action. Their difference is the oracle's value gap:

R_t = V_t(a^*_t) − V_t(a_t) ≥ 0

This is often called regret. A value of 4.18 means the oracle estimates that its best legal move was worth 4.18 more than the model's move. Values are in that oracle's own units: compare moves within the same turn and oracle, not raw values across different seats or oracle types. The result is only as good as the oracle's candidate set, evaluator, and information reconstruction; it is not proof of the uniquely correct move.

Utility, threshold, surplus, and `z`

u_i(d) is party i's score for deal d; τ_i is its walk-away threshold. Raw surplus is u_i(d) − τ_i. Normalized surplus z_i expresses that gain relative to the party's own available range, making differently scaled score sheets more comparable. “Below τ” means a deal is not individually rational for that party.

Frontier and reference points

Each dot is a legal deal. Up and right is better; the Pareto frontier contains deals where no party can gain without another losing. Numbered circles are the model's proposals, orange circles are oracle proposals, and the square is the agreement. NBS, KS, UTIL, EGAL, and MNW are normative reference rules, not additional plays. Hover or focus any point for its deal, scores, party ranking, and the reference rule's definition.

Conversation and issue views

Conversation contains only published messages and formal moves, plus a few provenance annotations that were never published to the table: a turn the engine did not generate, a turn that published nothing, and a turn played by somebody other than the seat's usual occupant. It excludes private scratchpads, prompts, failed attempts that were retried, and post-hoc oracle verdicts. Issues is an analyst's view of a seat's score sheet; in a private-information game, other seats could not see it while negotiating. Both views follow the turn currently in the transcript.

Provenance and generated failures

The annotation label identifies which saved oracle pass supplied the counterfactuals. A “NOT GENERATED” turn is an engine placeholder after generation failed, not an intentional model move. Expand a turn's audit panels to distinguish the published action, private reasoning, reconstructed prompt view, and raw stored text.

scorable_negotiation — scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-008fea746c

The advised seat: what the planner recommended, and what the seat did

All five seats, round by round

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Where every deal sits, and where this episode went

Per-turn value gap against the omniscient hindsight oracle

System prompts (5 distinct)

Transcript — what the model did, and what the omniscient hindsight oracle scores as best

scorable_negotiation — `scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-008fea746c`