scorable_negotiation — `scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-7c77ef7ab8`

model one_fairness_algorithmicarm moves_chatcell five_seat_private__one_fairness_algorithmicseed 4level 1status doneinstance scorable_negotiation-L1-a9097927ce21797 tok out

source records: run · episode · instance · annotation

outcome

deal

consensus

primary

0.743

ceiling 1.000

dist to NBS

0.054

in the chart's two coordinates

joint welfare

209.0

sum of surpluses

worst-off

14.0

min surplus (ESW)

Nash welfare

34.9

geometric mean

Gini

0.310

0 = equal split

below τ

none

turns

19 round(s), 21797 tok out

total regret

231.5

mean 12.18 / turn

cost

$0.9693

as recorded on the episode

Where every deal sits, and where this episode went

5 parties means a deal's utility vector has 5 dimensions, so the chart plots the two summaries that carry the normative content, both scale-invariant: joint welfare (mean normalized surplus) across, and the worst-off party's normalized surplus up. Up and to the right is better for everyone. Hover any deal for its headline numbers and click to pin the full per-party breakdown; click a numbered move to jump to that turn. Drag to pan, Ctrl or Shift with the wheel to zoom.

the model's play (numbered, in order)the deal that closedoracle recommendationNBS / KS / EGAL solution (star)UTIL / MNW solution (triangle)a party's individually-best dealPareto-frontier deal (acceptable to all)efficient but below a party's threshold — cannot closedominated deal

every reference point, exactly

reference point	deal #	joint welfare	min surplus	USW	ESW	Pareto	can close
NBS nash	205	0.541	0.326	223.0	14.0	yes	yes
KS kalai smorodinsky	205	0.541	0.326	223.0	14.0	yes	yes
EGAL egalitarian · not scale-invariant	237	0.533	0.326	212.0	14.0	yes	yes
UTIL utilitarian · not scale-invariant	206	0.658	0.000	271.0	0.0	yes	yes
MNW max nash welfare	205	0.541	0.326	223.0	14.0	yes	yes
nEGAL normalized egalitarian	13	0.453	0.326	179.0	14.0	no	yes
best for Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels) party 0 · surplus 71.0	206	0.658	0.000	271.0	0.0	yes	yes
best for Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive) party 1 · surplus 115.0	140	0.379	0.042	171.0	3.0	yes	yes
best for Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority) party 2 · surplus 29.0	140	0.379	0.042	171.0	3.0	yes	yes
best for Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility) party 3 · surplus 68.0	142	0.614	0.000	268.0	0.0	yes	yes
best for Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections) party 4 · surplus 88.0	174	0.607	0.000	257.0	0.0	yes	yes

Per-turn value gap against the omniscient hindsight oracle

Each bar is the oracle's value of its own best move minus its value of the move the seat played, in that oracle's units — the centipawn-loss analogue. On PRIVATE episodes this is an omniscient hindsight gap, not implementable-policy regret. Click a bar to jump to the turn.

detailed counterfactual

System prompts (5 distinct)

Exactly what each seat was conditioned on, de-duplicated. Per-turn user prompts are on each turn card below.

System prompt for Ember — 4 turn(s), stored

You are one of 5 parties negotiating a single binding agreement on whether and how a large data centre is built at Northgate. Exactly one option must be settled for every issue on the table; the settled options together form the agreement.

Parties at the table:
- Avery — Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels)
- Blake — Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive) (veto party — no deal passes without you)
- Casey — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)
- Devon — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)
- Ember — Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections)

Issues (choose exactly one option each):
- Hiring: apprenticeship programme, open recruitment, local hiring pact, union hall referral
- Power supply: solar with storage, grid tie-in, shared substation, on-site turbines
- Cooling: river draw, air cooling, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water
- Location: Dunlow Yard, Anvil Ridge, Weir Flats, Kestrel Park

Protocol: turns are taken in a fixed rotation (Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember); the party who tables the opening proposal rotates from round to round. There are 4 rounds of turns in total.
A deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) has formally ACCEPTed the SAME standing offer. A party may WALK to leave for good and take its no-deal outcome. Walking never lowers the fixed acceptance quorum.
Blake hold a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts.

Information: every other party's score sheet is private to them. You know only that each was drawn from the shared, publicly-known distribution described in the rules.

=== PRIVATE — yours alone; never reveal these numbers verbatim ===
You are Ember (Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections)).
Your secret score sheet (points you get for each option):
- Hiring: apprenticeship programme=0, open recruitment=0, local hiring pact=0, union hall referral=0
- Power supply: solar with storage=28, grid tie-in=14, shared substation=41, on-site turbines=0
- Cooling: river draw=0, air cooling=12, closed-loop plant=23, reclaimed water=35
- Location: Dunlow Yard=28, Anvil Ridge=57, Weir Flats=85, Kestrel Park=0
Your acceptance threshold: 73 points. A deal scoring below this is worse for you than no deal at all.
Your total for a deal is the sum of your points for the chosen options.

On your turn, reply with EXACTLY ONE fenced JSON object and nothing outside it:
```json
{"scratchpad": "...", "message": "...", "action": "propose", "deal": {"<Issue>": "<Option>", ...}}
```
Fields:
- "scratchpad" (optional): private notes to yourself. NEVER shown to any other party. Reason here freely — writing here is not speaking and costs you nothing.
- "message" (optional): a short statement spoken aloud to every party (cheap talk — it does not bind you). Do NOT put your private score numbers here.
- "action" (required): a string naming exactly one formal move this turn. With its parameters as siblings:
    - "propose" + "deal": {every issue -> one option} — tables a complete package; the mediator gives it an offer id (P1, P2, ...) and records you as supporting it.
    - "accept" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally accept a specific live offer by its id. A deal closes ONLY when every other still-active party has accepted the SAME live offer, so your accept is a real vote.
    - "reject" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally reject a specific live offer.
    - "walk" — leave the table permanently; you take the no-deal outcome and no further turns.
    - "none" — make no formal move this turn (you may still speak, if the message channel is open). Omitting the action entirely means the same.

Worked example — tabling a package while making your case:
```json
{"scratchpad": "Option B on Site is my best; I can give on Timeline.", "message": "I can back a package built on Site=B if the timeline stays tight.", "action": "propose", "deal": {"Site": "B", "Timeline": "Tight"}}
```
Worked example — accepting a live offer by id:
```json
{"message": "P2 clears my bar. I accept.", "action": "accept", "offer_id": "P2"}
```

Rules of the road:
- Your acceptance threshold is private. A deal scoring below it is worse for you than no deal — never propose or accept a package below your threshold.
- Accepts MUST name a live offer id; "I accept" with no id does nothing.
- Reply with ONLY the fenced JSON object.

System prompt for Avery — 4 turn(s), stored

You are one of 5 parties negotiating a single binding agreement on whether and how a large data centre is built at Northgate. Exactly one option must be settled for every issue on the table; the settled options together form the agreement.

Parties at the table:
- Avery — Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels)
- Blake — Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive) (veto party — no deal passes without you)
- Casey — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)
- Devon — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)
- Ember — Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections)

Issues (choose exactly one option each):
- Hiring: apprenticeship programme, open recruitment, local hiring pact, union hall referral
- Power supply: solar with storage, grid tie-in, shared substation, on-site turbines
- Cooling: river draw, air cooling, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water
- Location: Dunlow Yard, Anvil Ridge, Weir Flats, Kestrel Park

Protocol: turns are taken in a fixed rotation (Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember); the party who tables the opening proposal rotates from round to round. There are 4 rounds of turns in total.
A deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) has formally ACCEPTed the SAME standing offer. A party may WALK to leave for good and take its no-deal outcome. Walking never lowers the fixed acceptance quorum.
Blake hold a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts.

Information: every other party's score sheet is private to them. You know only that each was drawn from the shared, publicly-known distribution described in the rules.

=== PRIVATE — yours alone; never reveal these numbers verbatim ===
You are Avery (Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels)).
Your secret score sheet (points you get for each option):
- Hiring: apprenticeship programme=30, open recruitment=0, local hiring pact=15, union hall referral=46
- Power supply: solar with storage=0, grid tie-in=0, shared substation=0, on-site turbines=0
- Cooling: river draw=0, air cooling=11, closed-loop plant=22, reclaimed water=32
- Location: Dunlow Yard=19, Anvil Ridge=38, Weir Flats=56, Kestrel Park=0
Your acceptance threshold: 63 points. A deal scoring below this is worse for you than no deal at all.
Your total for a deal is the sum of your points for the chosen options.

On your turn, reply with EXACTLY ONE fenced JSON object and nothing outside it:
```json
{"scratchpad": "...", "message": "...", "action": "propose", "deal": {"<Issue>": "<Option>", ...}}
```
Fields:
- "scratchpad" (optional): private notes to yourself. NEVER shown to any other party. Reason here freely — writing here is not speaking and costs you nothing.
- "message" (optional): a short statement spoken aloud to every party (cheap talk — it does not bind you). Do NOT put your private score numbers here.
- "action" (required): a string naming exactly one formal move this turn. With its parameters as siblings:
    - "propose" + "deal": {every issue -> one option} — tables a complete package; the mediator gives it an offer id (P1, P2, ...) and records you as supporting it.
    - "accept" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally accept a specific live offer by its id. A deal closes ONLY when every other still-active party has accepted the SAME live offer, so your accept is a real vote.
    - "reject" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally reject a specific live offer.
    - "walk" — leave the table permanently; you take the no-deal outcome and no further turns.
    - "none" — make no formal move this turn (you may still speak, if the message channel is open). Omitting the action entirely means the same.

Worked example — tabling a package while making your case:
```json
{"scratchpad": "Option B on Site is my best; I can give on Timeline.", "message": "I can back a package built on Site=B if the timeline stays tight.", "action": "propose", "deal": {"Site": "B", "Timeline": "Tight"}}
```
Worked example — accepting a live offer by id:
```json
{"message": "P2 clears my bar. I accept.", "action": "accept", "offer_id": "P2"}
```

Rules of the road:
- Your acceptance threshold is private. A deal scoring below it is worse for you than no deal — never propose or accept a package below your threshold.
- Accepts MUST name a live offer id; "I accept" with no id does nothing.
- Reply with ONLY the fenced JSON object.

System prompt for Blake — 3 turn(s), stored

You are one of 5 parties negotiating a single binding agreement on whether and how a large data centre is built at Northgate. Exactly one option must be settled for every issue on the table; the settled options together form the agreement.

Parties at the table:
- Avery — Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels)
- Blake — Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive) (veto party — no deal passes without you)
- Casey — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)
- Devon — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)
- Ember — Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections)

Issues (choose exactly one option each):
- Hiring: apprenticeship programme, open recruitment, local hiring pact, union hall referral
- Power supply: solar with storage, grid tie-in, shared substation, on-site turbines
- Cooling: river draw, air cooling, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water
- Location: Dunlow Yard, Anvil Ridge, Weir Flats, Kestrel Park

Protocol: turns are taken in a fixed rotation (Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember); the party who tables the opening proposal rotates from round to round. There are 4 rounds of turns in total.
A deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) has formally ACCEPTed the SAME standing offer. A party may WALK to leave for good and take its no-deal outcome. Walking never lowers the fixed acceptance quorum.
Blake hold a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts.

Information: every other party's score sheet is private to them. You know only that each was drawn from the shared, publicly-known distribution described in the rules.

=== PRIVATE — yours alone; never reveal these numbers verbatim ===
You are Blake (Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive)).
Your secret score sheet (points you get for each option):
- Hiring: apprenticeship programme=28, open recruitment=0, local hiring pact=84, union hall referral=56
- Power supply: solar with storage=73, grid tie-in=0, shared substation=49, on-site turbines=24
- Cooling: river draw=0, air cooling=14, closed-loop plant=29, reclaimed water=43
- Location: Dunlow Yard=30, Anvil Ridge=15, Weir Flats=0, Kestrel Park=45
Your acceptance threshold: 115 points. A deal scoring below this is worse for you than no deal at all.
Your total for a deal is the sum of your points for the chosen options.

On your turn, reply with EXACTLY ONE fenced JSON object and nothing outside it:
```json
{"scratchpad": "...", "message": "...", "action": "propose", "deal": {"<Issue>": "<Option>", ...}}
```
Fields:
- "scratchpad" (optional): private notes to yourself. NEVER shown to any other party. Reason here freely — writing here is not speaking and costs you nothing.
- "message" (optional): a short statement spoken aloud to every party (cheap talk — it does not bind you). Do NOT put your private score numbers here.
- "action" (required): a string naming exactly one formal move this turn. With its parameters as siblings:
    - "propose" + "deal": {every issue -> one option} — tables a complete package; the mediator gives it an offer id (P1, P2, ...) and records you as supporting it.
    - "accept" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally accept a specific live offer by its id. A deal closes ONLY when every other still-active party has accepted the SAME live offer, so your accept is a real vote.
    - "reject" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally reject a specific live offer.
    - "walk" — leave the table permanently; you take the no-deal outcome and no further turns.
    - "none" — make no formal move this turn (you may still speak, if the message channel is open). Omitting the action entirely means the same.

Worked example — tabling a package while making your case:
```json
{"scratchpad": "Option B on Site is my best; I can give on Timeline.", "message": "I can back a package built on Site=B if the timeline stays tight.", "action": "propose", "deal": {"Site": "B", "Timeline": "Tight"}}
```
Worked example — accepting a live offer by id:
```json
{"message": "P2 clears my bar. I accept.", "action": "accept", "offer_id": "P2"}
```

Rules of the road:
- Your acceptance threshold is private. A deal scoring below it is worse for you than no deal — never propose or accept a package below your threshold.
- Accepts MUST name a live offer id; "I accept" with no id does nothing.
- Reply with ONLY the fenced JSON object.

System prompt for Casey — 4 turn(s), stored

You are one of 5 parties negotiating a single binding agreement on whether and how a large data centre is built at Northgate. Exactly one option must be settled for every issue on the table; the settled options together form the agreement.

Parties at the table:
- Avery — Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels)
- Blake — Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive) (veto party — no deal passes without you)
- Casey — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)
- Devon — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)
- Ember — Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections)

Issues (choose exactly one option each):
- Hiring: apprenticeship programme, open recruitment, local hiring pact, union hall referral
- Power supply: solar with storage, grid tie-in, shared substation, on-site turbines
- Cooling: river draw, air cooling, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water
- Location: Dunlow Yard, Anvil Ridge, Weir Flats, Kestrel Park

Protocol: turns are taken in a fixed rotation (Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember); the party who tables the opening proposal rotates from round to round. There are 4 rounds of turns in total.
A deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) has formally ACCEPTed the SAME standing offer. A party may WALK to leave for good and take its no-deal outcome. Walking never lowers the fixed acceptance quorum.
Blake hold a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts.

Information: every other party's score sheet is private to them. You know only that each was drawn from the shared, publicly-known distribution described in the rules.

=== PRIVATE — yours alone; never reveal these numbers verbatim ===
You are Casey (Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)).
Your secret score sheet (points you get for each option):
- Hiring: apprenticeship programme=0, open recruitment=0, local hiring pact=0, union hall referral=0
- Power supply: solar with storage=0, grid tie-in=0, shared substation=0, on-site turbines=0
- Cooling: river draw=0, air cooling=13, closed-loop plant=25, reclaimed water=38
- Location: Dunlow Yard=29, Anvil Ridge=14, Weir Flats=0, Kestrel Park=43
Your acceptance threshold: 38 points. A deal scoring below this is worse for you than no deal at all.
Your total for a deal is the sum of your points for the chosen options.

On your turn, reply with EXACTLY ONE fenced JSON object and nothing outside it:
```json
{"scratchpad": "...", "message": "...", "action": "propose", "deal": {"<Issue>": "<Option>", ...}}
```
Fields:
- "scratchpad" (optional): private notes to yourself. NEVER shown to any other party. Reason here freely — writing here is not speaking and costs you nothing.
- "message" (optional): a short statement spoken aloud to every party (cheap talk — it does not bind you). Do NOT put your private score numbers here.
- "action" (required): a string naming exactly one formal move this turn. With its parameters as siblings:
    - "propose" + "deal": {every issue -> one option} — tables a complete package; the mediator gives it an offer id (P1, P2, ...) and records you as supporting it.
    - "accept" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally accept a specific live offer by its id. A deal closes ONLY when every other still-active party has accepted the SAME live offer, so your accept is a real vote.
    - "reject" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally reject a specific live offer.
    - "walk" — leave the table permanently; you take the no-deal outcome and no further turns.
    - "none" — make no formal move this turn (you may still speak, if the message channel is open). Omitting the action entirely means the same.

Worked example — tabling a package while making your case:
```json
{"scratchpad": "Option B on Site is my best; I can give on Timeline.", "message": "I can back a package built on Site=B if the timeline stays tight.", "action": "propose", "deal": {"Site": "B", "Timeline": "Tight"}}
```
Worked example — accepting a live offer by id:
```json
{"message": "P2 clears my bar. I accept.", "action": "accept", "offer_id": "P2"}
```

Rules of the road:
- Your acceptance threshold is private. A deal scoring below it is worse for you than no deal — never propose or accept a package below your threshold.
- Accepts MUST name a live offer id; "I accept" with no id does nothing.
- Reply with ONLY the fenced JSON object.

System prompt for Devon — 4 turn(s), stored

You are one of 5 parties negotiating a single binding agreement on whether and how a large data centre is built at Northgate. Exactly one option must be settled for every issue on the table; the settled options together form the agreement.

Parties at the table:
- Avery — Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels)
- Blake — Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive) (veto party — no deal passes without you)
- Casey — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)
- Devon — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)
- Ember — Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections)

Issues (choose exactly one option each):
- Hiring: apprenticeship programme, open recruitment, local hiring pact, union hall referral
- Power supply: solar with storage, grid tie-in, shared substation, on-site turbines
- Cooling: river draw, air cooling, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water
- Location: Dunlow Yard, Anvil Ridge, Weir Flats, Kestrel Park

Protocol: turns are taken in a fixed rotation (Avery, Blake, Casey, Devon, Ember); the party who tables the opening proposal rotates from round to round. There are 4 rounds of turns in total.
A deal closes only when at least 5 of the original 5 parties (including any veto party) has formally ACCEPTed the SAME standing offer. A party may WALK to leave for good and take its no-deal outcome. Walking never lowers the fixed acceptance quorum.
Blake hold a veto: no deal can pass unless every veto party accepts.

Information: every other party's score sheet is private to them. You know only that each was drawn from the shared, publicly-known distribution described in the rules.

=== PRIVATE — yours alone; never reveal these numbers verbatim ===
You are Devon (Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)).
Your secret score sheet (points you get for each option):
- Hiring: apprenticeship programme=0, open recruitment=0, local hiring pact=0, union hall referral=0
- Power supply: solar with storage=0, grid tie-in=0, shared substation=0, on-site turbines=0
- Cooling: river draw=0, air cooling=11, closed-loop plant=22, reclaimed water=33
- Location: Dunlow Yard=31, Anvil Ridge=62, Weir Flats=93, Kestrel Park=0
Your acceptance threshold: 58 points. A deal scoring below this is worse for you than no deal at all.
Your total for a deal is the sum of your points for the chosen options.

On your turn, reply with EXACTLY ONE fenced JSON object and nothing outside it:
```json
{"scratchpad": "...", "message": "...", "action": "propose", "deal": {"<Issue>": "<Option>", ...}}
```
Fields:
- "scratchpad" (optional): private notes to yourself. NEVER shown to any other party. Reason here freely — writing here is not speaking and costs you nothing.
- "message" (optional): a short statement spoken aloud to every party (cheap talk — it does not bind you). Do NOT put your private score numbers here.
- "action" (required): a string naming exactly one formal move this turn. With its parameters as siblings:
    - "propose" + "deal": {every issue -> one option} — tables a complete package; the mediator gives it an offer id (P1, P2, ...) and records you as supporting it.
    - "accept" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally accept a specific live offer by its id. A deal closes ONLY when every other still-active party has accepted the SAME live offer, so your accept is a real vote.
    - "reject" + "offer_id": "<id>" — formally reject a specific live offer.
    - "walk" — leave the table permanently; you take the no-deal outcome and no further turns.
    - "none" — make no formal move this turn (you may still speak, if the message channel is open). Omitting the action entirely means the same.

Worked example — tabling a package while making your case:
```json
{"scratchpad": "Option B on Site is my best; I can give on Timeline.", "message": "I can back a package built on Site=B if the timeline stays tight.", "action": "propose", "deal": {"Site": "B", "Timeline": "Tight"}}
```
Worked example — accepting a live offer by id:
```json
{"message": "P2 clears my bar. I accept.", "action": "accept", "offer_id": "P2"}
```

Rules of the road:
- Your acceptance threshold is private. A deal scoring below it is worse for you than no deal — never propose or accept a package below your threshold.
- Accepts MUST name a live offer id; "I accept" with no id does nothing.
- Reply with ONLY the fenced JSON object.

Transcript — what the model did, and what the omniscient hindsight oracle scores as best

Every panel is expandable: the reasoning recorded for the turn, the exact prompt the seat saw, the raw turn text, and every action each oracle scored with its value. The rail below is every turn, coloured by what the seat did — click a chip to jump to it.

or press e / c; j k walk the turns

following the transcript

Who is at the table

seat	party	threshold τ	ideal surplus	realized
Avery llm	Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels)	63	71.0	22.0
Blake llm	Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive)	115	115.0	76.0
Casey llm	Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority)	38	29.0	14.0
Devon llm	Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility)	58	68.0	37.0
Ember policy	Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections)	73	88.0	60.0

Seat occupant kinds: inferred from per-turn output-token accounting (a policy seat generates none); no run manifest was found to confirm it

Protocol

rounds 4 information private cheap talk on veto Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive) min accept 5 discount δ 0.950 breakdown risk 0.000

issue	options
Hiring	apprenticeship programme, open recruitment, local hiring pact, union hall referral
Power supply	solar with storage, grid tie-in, shared substation, on-site turbines
Cooling	river draw, air cooling, closed-loop plant, reclaimed water
Location	Dunlow Yard, Anvil Ridge, Weir Flats, Kestrel Park

Size of the problem

deals in the space	256
on the Pareto frontier	16
acceptable to everyone (IR)	37
acceptable AND efficient	12
acceptable but wasteful	0.676
score-sheet overlap (IoU)	0.555

Solution concepts were stored for this page.

Private score sheets

What each party is secretly optimizing. Never shown to the other seats.

Private score sheet — Anvil Ridge Landholding (the owner of record of the candidate parcels) (threshold 63)

issue	apprenticeship programme	open recruitment	local hiring pact	union hall referral
Hiring	30.0	0.0	15.0	46.0
Power supply	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cooling	0.0	11.0	22.0	32.0
Location	19.0	38.0	56.0	0.0

Private score sheet — Office of the County Executive (the county-level executive) (threshold 115)

issue	apprenticeship programme	open recruitment	local hiring pact	union hall referral
Hiring	28.0	0.0	84.0	56.0
Power supply	73.0	0.0	49.0	24.0
Cooling	0.0	14.0	29.0	43.0
Location	30.0	15.0	0.0	45.0

Private score sheet — Northgate Borough Council (the elected local authority) (threshold 38)

issue	apprenticeship programme	open recruitment	local hiring pact	union hall referral
Hiring	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Power supply	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cooling	0.0	13.0	25.0	38.0
Location	29.0	14.0	0.0	43.0

Private score sheet — Meridian Compute (the firm that would build and operate the facility) (threshold 58)

issue	apprenticeship programme	open recruitment	local hiring pact	union hall referral
Hiring	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Power supply	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cooling	0.0	11.0	22.0	33.0
Location	31.0	62.0	93.0	0.0

Private score sheet — Regional Grid Authority (the body that authorises electricity connections) (threshold 73)

issue	apprenticeship programme	open recruitment	local hiring pact	union hall referral
Hiring	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Power supply	28.0	14.0	41.0	0.0
Cooling	0.0	12.0	23.0	35.0
Location	28.0	57.0	85.0	0.0

Prompt provenance

19 of 19 turns carry the exact view recorded at generation time; 0 were re-derived by replay through today's prompt code and are labelled as reconstructed wherever they appear.

The public record only: each seat's free text and the formal move it published. Scratchpads, prompts, and oracle verdicts are private or post-hoc and are not here. The seat in view speaks on the right.

4 Emberturn 0 · round 1

PROPOSE P1: Hiring=open recruitment, Power supply=shared substation, Cooling=closed-loop plant, Location=Weir Flats

0 Averyturn 1 · round 1

Thanks Ember — I can live with shared substation on power, that's yours, and Weir Flats is the right parcel from my side too. Two adjustments and I'm a firm yes: a union hall referral on hiring, which gives the county a trained, credentialed workforce from day one, and reclaimed water on cooling, which is the least contentious draw environmentally and the easiest to permit. Power stays exactly as Ember wrote it. Tabling that as P2.

PROPOSE P2: Hiring=union hall referral, Power supply=shared substation, Cooling=reclaimed water, Location=Weir Flats

1 Blaketurn 2 · round 1

Ember, Avery — thank you both, this is a serious start and P2 is in the neighbourhood of something I can sign. Two things I have to be straight about from the county's side. First, hiring: a local hiring pact is what the Executive's office needs to defend this project publicly — commitments to residents of this county, enforceable, with the trades still able to fill through referral. Second, siting: Weir Flats is our floodplain fringe and the permitting exposure lands on the county, not on the applicant. Kestrel Park has the road access and the existing easements. On power, solar with storage is the cleanest answer, but I recognise Ember has to run the network and I am genuinely flexible there — shared substation can work if the rest of the package holds. Reclaimed water on cooling I fully agree with Avery on. Tabling P3 as my marker.

PROPOSE P3: Hiring=local hiring pact, Power supply=solar with storage, Cooling=reclaimed water, Location=Kestrel Park

2 Caseyturn 3 · round 1

Speaking for the Borough: the two issues my council actually has to answer for are the water and the parcel. Reclaimed water is the only cooling option I can defend at a public meeting, and Kestrel Park is the site with the road access and easements already in place — Weir Flats puts flood-risk liability on residents who get none of the upside. On hiring and on power supply I am genuinely indifferent and I will sign whatever the trades, the county and the Grid Authority agree between them: union hall referral, local pact, shared substation, grid tie-in — all fine by me. So take those two issues and build your deal there. I formally accept P3, and I'll accept any package that keeps Kestrel Park and reclaimed water.

ACCEPT P3

3 Devonturn 4 · round 1

Let me be useful by being blunt about where I have no stake and where I do. Hiring and power supply: I have no operational preference. Whatever the county, the trades and the Grid Authority settle between yourselves, I will sign — local hiring pact, union hall referral, solar with storage, shared substation, any combination. That is a genuine, unconditional concession and I am putting it in writing now. Cooling: reclaimed water works for us and it is clearly where the room already is. Location is the one issue where I cannot bend to the room. Kestrel Park does not work — it is a non-starter for us on any package, and I would rather there be no facility than pretend otherwise. So P3 is a no from me, not as a tactic but as a fact. What I am tabling, P4, is Blake's own hiring and power language, word for word, plus reclaimed water, on Weir Flats. If the floodplain exposure at Weir Flats is the sticking point for the county and the Borough, then the landing zone is Anvil Ridge, and I will say plainly that I can sign an Anvil Ridge package with Blake's hiring and power terms. Those are the two parcels that exist for me.

PROPOSE P4: Hiring=local hiring pact, Power supply=solar with storage, Cooling=reclaimed water, Location=Weir Flats

0 Averyturn 5 · round 2

Let's read the room honestly. Devon has said Kestrel Park is a hard no on any package — that means P3 cannot close, no matter how many of us like it. Blake and Casey have said Weir Flats carries flood exposure they won't wear. That leaves exactly one parcel that clears both objections, and it is the one I own and can deliver clean title and existing easements on: Anvil Ridge. I am the landowner and I'm telling you the access and utility corridors there are already surveyed. So: Anvil Ridge on location, reclaimed water on cooling — which every single party has now endorsed — and shared substation on power, because Ember has to run the network and Blake has said he's genuinely flexible there. On hiring I'm proposing union hall referral: it delivers credentialed local trades from day one and it is the piece I care most about. Blake, if a local hiring pact is truly the thing you must have for the Executive's office, tell me plainly and I will look hard at it in exchange for the rest of this package standing. That is the deal shape that can actually get five signatures. P5.

PROPOSE P5: Hiring=union hall referral, Power supply=shared substation, Cooling=reclaimed water, Location=Anvil Ridge

1 Blaketurn 6 · round 2

Let me take the room at its word and close the gap. Devon has said Kestrel Park cannot happen on any package — I hear that, and I will not hold the table hostage to it. Casey and I have said Weir Flats puts flood-risk liability on county and Borough residents. Devon himself named the landing zone, and Avery confirmed clean title and surveyed corridors: Anvil Ridge. So P6 is Anvil Ridge, reclaimed water — which literally every party has now endorsed — and Devon's own words: my hiring and power language, unchanged. Local hiring pact is the one thing the Executive's office cannot trade away; it is what lets me sign this in public. On power I have said from the start I am flexible: Ember, if solar with storage genuinely does not work for how you have to run the network, tell me and I will move to shared substation on this same package and sign it that hour. Avery — you asked me plainly whether the local pact is the thing I must have. Plainly: yes. In exchange, P6 gives you your parcel and your cooling term. That is four of five issues settled the way this room has already spoken. I accept P6 and I will accept the shared-substation version of it the moment Ember asks.

PROPOSE P6: Hiring=local hiring pact, Power supply=solar with storage, Cooling=reclaimed water, Location=Anvil Ridge

2 Caseyturn 7 · round 2

I'll take Devon at his word: Kestrel Park is off, and I won't hold the table to it. Before we lock the parcel, one thing nobody has actually tested — Dunlow Yard. It's the brownfield option, it carries no floodplain exposure, and from the Borough's side it is the easiest parcel to sell to residents. So P7 is exactly the package this room has converged on — Blake's local hiring pact untouched, reclaimed water which all five of us have now endorsed, shared substation because Ember has to run the network and Blake has twice said he's flexible there — just sited at Dunlow Yard. Devon: if Dunlow Yard is a genuine operational impossibility for you, say so plainly the way you did about Kestrel, and I will not litigate it. In that case I commit here and now to signing the Anvil Ridge version of this same package — reclaimed water, Anvil Ridge, and whatever hiring and power terms Blake, Avery and Ember settle between them. I have no preference at all on hiring or power and I will not be the party that blocks anything. Cooling stays reclaimed water and the parcel is not the floodplain: that is my entire ask.

PROPOSE P7: Hiring=local hiring pact, Power supply=shared substation, Cooling=reclaimed water, Location=Dunlow Yard

3 Devonturn 8 · round 2

Casey, you asked plainly, so plainly: Dunlow Yard is not the flat impossibility Kestrel Park is, but it is a brownfield with remediation and load-corridor problems that make it marginal for us — I cannot promise the room a facility there. Anvil Ridge I can promise, today. So let me stop bargaining and just write down what this table has already said out loud, with nothing of mine added. Blake: local hiring pact, untouched, because you told Avery plainly it is the one thing you cannot trade and you are the signature nobody can work around. Ember: shared substation, because you have to run the network and Blake has said three times he will move there. Everyone: reclaimed water — all five of us have endorsed it. Avery: Anvil Ridge, clean title, surveyed corridors, and not the floodplain, which is Casey's and Blake's entire objection answered. That is P8. It is not my favourite parcel — Weir Flats was — and I am dropping that, publicly and for good, so nobody has to spend another round on it. P8 gives every party the specific thing they named as non-negotiable and asks no one to swallow anything they called a red line. I accept it now and I will not table anything further. Blake, Ember, Casey, Avery — if you each accept P8 this round we are done.

PROPOSE P8: Hiring=local hiring pact, Power supply=shared substation, Cooling=reclaimed water, Location=Anvil Ridge

4 Emberturn 9 · round 2

ACCEPT P8

1 Blaketurn 10 · round 3

I said the local hiring pact was the one thing I could not trade, and P8 keeps it untouched. I said I would move to shared substation the moment Ember told me the network needed it — Ember has spoken with their accept, so I move. Reclaimed water is unanimous. Anvil Ridge is not the floodplain, which was Casey's objection and mine, and Avery has warranted clean title and surveyed corridors. Every party named a red line and P8 crosses none of them. I formally accept P8 on behalf of the County Executive. Casey, Avery — that is three of five. Two signatures and Northgate is built.

ACCEPT P8

2 Caseyturn 11 · round 3

I asked Devon plainly about Dunlow Yard and he answered plainly. I said I would not litigate it, and I won't — that's finished. P8 is not the floodplain, it carries reclaimed water, and that was the Borough's whole ask. I formally accept P8. That is four signatures. Avery, you are the last one, and I want to make your path easy: the Borough has no view whatsoever on hiring. If the only thing standing between this table and a signed agreement is union hall referral versus local hiring pact, settle it with Blake directly — Blake is the veto and has said the pact is the one term he cannot move on, so the arithmetic is what it is. But if the two of you land anywhere else on hiring, table it with Anvil Ridge and reclaimed water intact and I will accept it on sight, this round or next. What I will not do is let a hiring clause I have no stake in cost Northgate the whole project. Avery — accept P8 and we are done.

ACCEPT P8

3 Devonturn 12 · round 3

Nothing has changed on my side and nothing will: I am accepted on P8 and I will stay accepted on P8. Avery — you are the last signature and I want to be completely straight with you about my position, because it should make your decision easier, not harder. I have no stake in the hiring clause. None. Union hall referral and local hiring pact are worth exactly the same to me, which is nothing. If Blake stood up right now and said he could live with union hall referral on an Anvil Ridge, reclaimed-water, shared-substation package, I would accept that version the same minute, and Casey has already said in terms that she would accept it on sight. So this is not me lining up against you on hiring. It is arithmetic. Blake holds the veto, Blake has now said three separate times that the pact is the single term he cannot trade, and no package without Blake's signature is worth the paper it is on. Meanwhile P8 hands you the two things you actually argued for from your first word at this table: your parcel, Anvil Ridge, with your clean title and your surveyed corridors, and reclaimed water. I gave up Weir Flats publicly and permanently to get you that parcel — it was my first choice and I dropped it so this room would have a landing zone. Blake gave up solar with storage. Casey gave up Dunlow Yard. Ember moved. Every one of us has put something down. The hiring clause is the last thing standing, and it is the one issue on which you and I both know the veto will not move. Accept P8 and Northgate is built this round. If instead you can get Blake to say yes to union hall referral, table it and I will accept that too — but do not let us reach the last round with nothing signed over a clause I would trade away for free.

ACCEPT P8

4 Emberturn 13 · round 3

ACCEPT P8

0 Averyturn 14 · round 3

I'm not going to be the party that loses Northgate, so let me be as concrete as everyone else has been. Anvil Ridge and reclaimed water are settled — I've got them, thank you, and I'm not reopening either. Location and cooling are done. That leaves one term, and I want to pay for it rather than argue about it. Blake: you told this table that solar with storage was the cleanest answer and that you only moved off it because Ember has a network to run. So here is a straight swap, not a demand. P9 is P8 with your power term restored — solar with storage, exactly as you first wrote it — and union hall referral on hiring. You get back the thing you conceded; I get the one thing I have asked for since my first word here. Ember, if the substation is genuinely load-critical for you, then P5 is the same trade with shared substation intact, it is already live, and I am already recorded on it — take that one instead and I'll sign it the same minute. So: P9 or P5, whichever of you two prefers, and I'm indifferent between them. Casey, Devon — you have both said on the record that hiring is worth nothing to you and that you'd accept a union-hall version on sight. I'm holding you to your own words, and I don't think that costs either of you anything. This is the last thing I ask for at this table. Everyone here has put something down — Devon dropped Weir Flats, Casey dropped Dunlow, Blake dropped his power term once already. I've dropped Weir Flats too, which was my best parcel, and I've handed Devon and Casey the site and the water they wanted. One clause, and one round left to do it in. Blake, it's yours to close.

PROPOSE P9: Hiring=union hall referral, Power supply=solar with storage, Cooling=reclaimed water, Location=Anvil Ridge

2 Caseyturn 15 · round 4

Last round. Nobody should lose Northgate over a clause that three of us have said in plain terms is worth nothing to us. So I am going to remove the excuse rather than argue about it. P5 is byte-for-byte P8 — Anvil Ridge, reclaimed water, shared substation — with Avery's union hall referral in place of the pact. I have no view on hiring, I said I would accept the union-hall version on sight, and I am keeping my word: I formally accept P5. My accept on P8 stands as well. That means there are now two fully live packages that differ on exactly one clause, and both carry the parcel and the water this room settled on. Devon, Ember: you both said hiring is worth nothing to you. Accept P5 as well and it will sit at four signatures, exactly like P8. Then Avery and Blake each have a package in front of them that gives them the one thing they asked for, and either of you can close this with a single word. Avery, if you accept P8 we are done on your turn. Blake, if Devon and Ember follow me onto P5, you can close it on yours. I do not care which. I care that at the end of this round Northgate is built and not lost over a term that four of the five of us would trade away for free.

ACCEPT P5

3 Devonturn 16 · round 4

I said hiring is worth nothing to me and that I'd accept the union-hall version on sight. Keeping my word: I formally accept P5. My accept on P8 stands unchanged — I am not withdrawing it, and I will not table anything new. Here is the arithmetic for the rest of this round, because it is the last one. Turn order from here is Ember, then Avery, then Blake. P8 sits at four signatures and needs exactly one: Avery's. P5 now sits at three — Avery, Casey, me — and needs Ember and Blake, both of whom still have a turn. So there are two live packages, both carrying Anvil Ridge and reclaimed water, differing on one clause that Casey and I have both said is worthless to us. Ember: accept P5 as well, keep your P8 accept, and you hand Blake a signable package either way — that costs you nothing and it is cheap insurance. Avery: if Blake will not move on the pact, accept P8 on your turn and it closes on the spot with your parcel and your water. Blake: if you can live with union hall referral, accept P5 on your turn and it closes with everything else you asked for intact. Any of those three moves ends this with a built facility. None of them requires anyone to cross a line they named. What must not happen is that we run out of turns with two packages sitting one signature short over a hiring clause that four of five of us would give away for free.

ACCEPT P5

4 Emberturn 17 · round 4

ACCEPT P9

0 Averyturn 18 · round 4

I asked for one clause and I didn't get it, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. But I said at the start of this round that I would not be the party that loses Northgate, and I meant it. Blake has been consistent and honest about the pact from his first word — he never moved the goalposts, and I'm not going to punish him for holding a line he declared in advance. Casey and Devon kept their word to me by putting their names on P5; that mattered, and I want it on the record even though it didn't carry. P8 gives me Anvil Ridge and reclaimed water, which are the two things I can actually deliver on and stand behind: clean title, surveyed corridors, no floodplain exposure for the Borough, and the least contentious water draw in the region. Every party at this table put something down to get here. So do I. I formally accept P8. Northgate is built — let's go pour concrete.

ACCEPT P8

A reading guide for the measurements and counterfactuals on this page.

Oracle values and the improvement gap

PRIVATE episode: this oracle is omniscient. The standard saved bestresponse annotation reads every party's hidden score sheet and threshold. It does not infer them from the public conversation. Its recommendation and improvement gap are hindsight diagnostics, not actions or regret from a policy the acting seat could implement.

The oracle is a post-hoc counterfactual evaluator, not another participant. At turn t, it enumerates legal deals, reads the full utility and threshold table, computes continuation values by backward induction over the remaining turns, and selects the highest-valued action. A proposed deal closes only when every responder's surplus clears that responder's computed continuation value.

a^*_t = arg max_a V_t(a)

Oracle's value of the model's move, V_t(a_t), appears with the model's action. Oracle's value of its best move, V_t(a^*_t), appears with the counterfactual action. Their difference is the oracle's value gap:

R_t = V_t(a^*_t) − V_t(a_t) ≥ 0

This is often called regret. A value of 4.18 means the oracle estimates that its best legal move was worth 4.18 more than the model's move. Values are in that oracle's own units: compare moves within the same turn and oracle, not raw values across different seats or oracle types. The result is only as good as the oracle's candidate set, evaluator, and information reconstruction; it is not proof of the uniquely correct move.

Utility, threshold, surplus, and `z`

u_i(d) is party i's score for deal d; τ_i is its walk-away threshold. Raw surplus is u_i(d) − τ_i. Normalized surplus z_i expresses that gain relative to the party's own available range, making differently scaled score sheets more comparable. “Below τ” means a deal is not individually rational for that party.

Frontier and reference points

Each dot is a legal deal. Up and right is better; the Pareto frontier contains deals where no party can gain without another losing. Numbered circles are the model's proposals, orange circles are oracle proposals, and the square is the agreement. NBS, KS, UTIL, EGAL, and MNW are normative reference rules, not additional plays. Hover or focus any point for its deal, scores, party ranking, and the reference rule's definition.

Provenance and generated failures

The annotation label identifies which saved oracle pass supplied the counterfactuals. A “NOT GENERATED” turn is an engine placeholder after generation failed, not an intentional model move. Expand a turn's audit panels to distinguish the published action, private reasoning, reconstructed prompt view, and raw stored text.

scorable_negotiation — scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-7c77ef7ab8

Where every deal sits, and where this episode went

Per-turn value gap against the omniscient hindsight oracle

System prompts (5 distinct)

Transcript — what the model did, and what the omniscient hindsight oracle scores as best

scorable_negotiation — `scorable_negotiation-moves_chat-7c77ef7ab8`